On 5/30/2013 2:36 PM, Desertphile wrote:
>> Personally, I hope the deniers are right and the scientists
>> >are wrong. But hoping doesn't make something true, and historically,
>> >the smart money has always been on the scientists.
> The scientists also very much hope they are wrong. The problem is that
> the laws of physics involved have never been observed to be wrong, so
> it is unlikely that the scientists are wrong.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/
The increase in global temperatures since the late 19th century just
reflects the end of the Little Ice Age. The global temperature trends
since then have followed not rising CO2 trends but the ocean temperature
cycles of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Every 20 to 30 years, the much colder
water near the bottom of the oceans cycles up to the top, where it has a
slight cooling effect on global temperatures until the sun warms that
water. That warmed water then contributes to slightly warmer global
temperatures, until the next churning cycle.
Those ocean temperature cycles, and the continued recovery from the
Little Ice Age, are primarily why global temperatures rose from 1915
until 1945, when CO2 emissions were much lower than in recent years. The
change to a cold ocean temperature cycle, primarily the PDO, is the main
reason that global temperatures declined from 1945 until the late 1970s,
despite the soaring CO2 emissions during that time from the postwar
industrialization spreading across the globe.
The 20 to 30 year ocean temperature cycles turned back to warm from the
late 1970s until the late 1990s, which is the primary reason that global
temperatures warmed during this period. But that warming ended 15 years
ago, and global temperatures have stopped increasing since then, if not
actually cooled, even though global CO2 emissions have soared over this
period. As The Economist magazine reported in March, �The world added
roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and
2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since
1750.� Yet, still no warming during that time. That is because the CO2
greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural causes of
global temperature changes.
At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean
cycles turning back to cold. But something much more ominous has
developed over this period. Sunspots run in 11 year short term cycles,
with longer cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years. The number of
sunspots declined substantially in the last 11 year cycle, after
flattening out over the previous 20 years. But in the current cycle,
sunspot activity has collapsed. NASA�s Science News report for January
8, 2013 states,
�Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right
now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 [the current short term 11 year cycle] is
the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial)
evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength
of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar
Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic
fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be
formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and
surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion.�
The Voice of Russia reported on April 22, 2013,
�Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in
recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists
from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning,
so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well.
Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for
global cooling are far from groundless.�
That report quoted Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory saying,
�Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn�t
bring about considerable climate change � only 1-2%. The impact of the
200-year cycle is greater � up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in
for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years.� In other words, another
Little Ice Age.
The German Herald reported on March 31, 2013,
�German meteorologists say that the start of 2013 is now the coldest in
208 years � and now German media has quoted Russian scientist Dr
Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St. Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical
Observatory [saying this] is proof as he said earlier that we are
heading for a �Mini Ice Age.� Talking to German media the scientist who
first made his prediction in 2005 said that after studying sunspots and
their relationship with climate change on Earth, we are now on an
�unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop.��
Faith in Global Warming is collapsing in formerly staunch Europe
following increasingly severe winters which have now started continuing
into spring. Christopher Booker explained in The Sunday Telegraph on
April 27, 2013,
�Here in Britain, where we had our fifth freezing winter in a row, the
Central England Temperature record � according to an expert analysis on
the US science blog Watts Up With That � shows that in this century,
average winter temperatures have dropped by 1.45C, more than twice as
much as their rise between 1850 and 1999, and twice as much as the
entire net rise in global temperatures recorded in the 20th century.�