Hurricane Austin Sets Sights On Houston

[AlleyCat]

With Winds as strong or stronger than Idalia's, we might as well start naming
Thunderstorms too, since the chicken shit Chicken Littles with agendas do,
anyway.

https://i.imgur.com/JORUgaw.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/tuhFCI0.jpg

=====

August... So Hot!

"Polar Blast" Hits Australia

Antarctica Breaks *Multiple* All-Time Low Temperature Records

Record Cold Denver

Historic Snow pack Leads To Full Utah Reservoirs

B.C. Glaciers 28-49% Thicker Than Models Estimated

Record Cold Myanmar

Pakistan's Frigid 2023

Australia's Snow Warnings

U.S. Burn Acreage Fourth-Lowest on Record (Since 1926)

UT And CO Still Have Snow


Barrier Reef Holding On To Record Coral Gains

German Mountains See 4-Inches of Summer Snow

Cold Julys From Fiji To The UK

Historically Cold Italy

U.S. Ski Industry Reports Record-Breaking 65.4 Million Skier Visits Last Season

Cold Ireland

Cool U.S.

"Unusual" Temperature Drop Recorded Across Pacific Islands

Record-Cold Sweeps Europe As "Intense Snow" Continues To Pound Italy And Spain

Almanac Predicts Cold, Snowy Winter For U.S.

New August Low For Rapa Island

Europe's Colder-Than-Average (And Snowy) July

UK's Historically Cold Summer Drags On

Greenland Ice Sheet Uptick

Sierra Snow pack 1000% of Normal

Svalbard Polar Bears Enjoy Above Average Ice

[Kym Horsell]

hurricane idalia -- early estimates of damages

With the NOAA upping its estimate of coastal rain to around 10"
in regions near landfall maybe early Wed morning
the models have started spitting out estimates of damage based
on past multi-million dollar disasters in Florida.

Aug is a bad month for insurance companies covering the state
because major damage is very variable.

The Dept of Commerce data for Aug major weather disasters
looks like:


Year AUG major weather disasters cost $bns in 2023 dollars
1980 2.16
1983 9.12
1985 3.67
1991 3.35
1992 58.59
1995 1.7
1998 1.57
2002 1.87
2004 25.76
2005 193.8
2006 1.14
2008 8.34
2011 9.89
2012 3.65
2013 1.35
2014 1.32
2016 12.9
2017 155
2018 1.24
2019 1.92
2020 16.25
2021 28.42
(2022 still under review).

The programs find max Florida rainfall in the month predicts
fairly well what the value will be for a dingle disaster. I've added in data on the storm
surge for major Atl storms as well.

The model is:

VARIABLE COEFFICIENT STAND. ERROR T - VALUE P - VALUE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(surge) 0.12951 0.47230 0.27422 0.78743
(maxflaprecmm) 0.01479 0.00427 3.46136 0.00322
CONSTANT 3.97363 1.07908 3.68242 0.00202
WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES = 22.50805
DEGREES OF FREEDOM = 16
SCALE ESTIMATE = 1.18607
COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) = 0.44602
THE F-VALUE = 6.441 (WITH 2 AND 16 DF) P - VALUE = 0.00887
THERE ARE 19 POINTS WITH NON-ZERO WEIGHT.
AVERAGE WEIGHT = 1.00000

The model claims to predict about 45% of the damage for single Aug storms.
Interestingly the "base cost" is around $4 bn.
But for each 1m of surge there's another $130 mn in damage and
parts of Fla may experience a 2m surge.

But the "P-Value" for the surge is very large, meaning this part
of the cost estimate can vary a lot depending just on the luck of
which part of the coast gets the surge. Even with (as expected now)
most of the Fla Gulf coast expecting some surge, we cant be
very certain of what damage will result.

OTOH, the stats are fairly sure the max precip adds about $14 mn per mm of rainfall. With up to 10" expected around Tallahassee that might be
around 3.6 bn on top of the base cost -- about double.

Luckily Florida is not Marxist so they will be covering the cost
themselves. Just as well -- FEMA is running out of cash after the
15 major disasters already this year.

Thank goodness there was 3 weeks warning on this one otherwise it
could have been expensib!

--
[Idalia!]
DeSantis declares state of emergency for much of Florida as possible
tropical storm forms in Gulf of Mexico
Fox News, 27 Aug 2023 11:29Z
GOP presidential candidate and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of
emergency for 33 of the state's 67 counties amid a possible tropical storm.
[Forecast high Cat 2 nr landfall; up to 10" for Tallahassee].

Record heat recorded in Dallas as scorching summer continues in US
NY Post, 27 Aug 2023 08:21Z

Off-the-scale marine heatwave forecast for south east
Perth Now, 26 Aug 2023 22:42Z
Another marine heatwave is about to hit the waters off south east Australia and there are some lessons about what might be in store from an earlier event.

As young conservatives try to get climate on the agenda in 2024, denial
takes the spotlight instead
CBS 58, 27 Aug 2023 0:41Z

[Only 47 years to go!]
World Oil Statistics
The world consumes 35,442,913,090 barrels of oil as of the year 2016,
equivalent to 97,103,871 barrels per day. · Global oil consumption per
capita is 5 barrels ...
Oil Reserves: 1,650,585,140,000
Oil Consumption: 35,442,913,090
Reserves/Consumption: 47 <== years left i.e. 2016+47 == 2063
-- Worldometer

With just 315 northern hairy-nosed wombats left, conservationists are looking
to map their underground homes
ABC Southern Qld, 28 Aug 2023 0:02Z
With only 315 of the marsupials left, conservationists are using
subsurface mapping to investigate the wombats' burrows in a bid
to find potential new habitats for the critically endangered species.

Desperate plea for volunteers as border brigades on alert 20 months after
Poolajielo fire
ABC South East SA, 27 Aug 2023 23:02Z
As the two-year anniversary of the Poolaijelo fire nears and another
extreme season looms, those on the fire ground say much has been
learned and improvements have been made, but some of its SA-Victoria
cross-border challenges remain.

What will happen if Australia scraps the 88-day backpacker visa requirement?
ABC South West WA, 27 Aug 2023 23:59Z
There are concerns backpackers will stop coming to regional WA and
leave farmers in the lurch should visa requirements be changed.

Canadian Minister on Rare China Trip for Talks on Climate, Biodiversity
VOA News, 26 Aug 2023 23:48Z
Canada's Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault leaves Saturday for
Beijing to join talks on fighting climate change and preserving biodiversity,...

U.N. experts challenge Saudi Aramco over climate change
The Japan Times, 27 Aug 2023 02:47Z
U.N. experts have written to oil firm Saudi Aramco and its financial backers
challenging them on allegations that their activities are fueling climate...

Climate: Battle lines harden over how to slash CO2
Dhaka Tribune, 27 Aug 2023 03:45Z
Banish fossil fuels, capture their emissions, pull CO2 from thin air,
diplomats in Bonn for UN-led climate talks agree there's too much
planet-warming...

[NOT READY YET!]
Why these `climate haven' cities aren't yet ready for more extreme weather
events
PBS, 26 Aug 2023 23:42Z
Several cities in the upper Midwest and Northeast have been considered
natural refuges from climate change. But their infrastructure often isn't
built to...

[Don Worry! Dis yeer is way better dan NEXT yeer! Enjoy!!]
After America's summer of extreme weather, `next year may well be worse'
The Guardian, 27 Aug 2023 0:42Z
A freakish season of record temperatures, wildfire smoke and the destruction
of Lahaina could soon become normal, climate experts say.

Fears bushfires could be 'catastrophic' in Upper Murray as end of native
timber logging approaches
ABC News, 26 Aug 2023 21:43Z
There's concern the end of native timber logging in Victoria will leave
communities like Corryong more vulnerable to future bushfires, even though
authorities say forest contractors will continue to ...
[Grasslands burn bigger than forests].

Fortescue board bolstered by ex-CSIRO boss Larry Marshall
AFR, 26 Aug 2023 23:41Z
The appointment, announced at Fortescue's 20th birthday party, adds
scientific weight to the board as Fortescue prepares to make final
investment calls on five green energy projects.

Andrew Forrest's FMG, Pilbara traditional owners return to court over $500
million compensation battle
ABC Pilbara, 06 Aug 2023 22:05Z
With Fortescue and Pilbara native title holders unable to agree on
compensation for "economic and cultural loss" caused by mining, the
Federal Court will begin hearing evidence in Roebourne today.

'Went too far': WA premier announces repeal of controversial
Juukan Gorge laws
ABC News, 08 Aug 2023 03:28Z
Just five weeks after being legislated, Roger Cook announces the WA
government will be scrapping its Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Laws
which he says caused 'division' and 'confusion' in the community.

New laws aim to avoid another Juukan Gorge disaster, but Indigenous leaders
have serious concerns
ABC News, 16 Nov 2021 21:19Z
The WA Government will today introduce legislation aimed at preventing a
repeat of the destruction at Juukan Gorge in the state's Pilbara region, but
it has been accused of ignoring traditional owners' concerns.
[This law probably won't stand. WA is "owned" by mining companies].

'Inconceivable': Inquiry says Australia needs new laws to avoid another
Juukan Gorge disaster
ABC News, 18 Oct 2021 05:02Z
A parliamentary inquiry into the destruction of the Juukan Gorge rock
shelters recommends new laws to protect thousands of sacred sites across
Australia.

Glencore pushing NT government to allow destruction of Aboriginal site of
'high archaeological significance'
ABC/AM, 30 Mar 2021 19:21Z
A plan to build a waste rock dump on the site of an archaeologically
significant Aboriginal stone tool quarry could draw comparisons to the
Juukan Gorge cave blasts, according to a briefing prepared for the NT
government.

BREAKING (3 Mar 2021): 2 Rio Tinto directors, including Chairman Simon
Thompson, will resign amid ongoing fallout from the Juuken Gorge
debacle. The announcement comes ahead of Rio's AGM in Apr. Rio
decided to blow up the caves -- the site of aboriginal shelters and
artifacts -- in mid 2020 as part of an iron ore development. Juuken
Gorge was the only inland site so far discovered to show continuous
human occupation for the past 46,000 years incl the peak of the last
ice age.

[Kym Horsell]

The NOAA has updated its surge maps with peak along the Gulf coast
now 12 ft and upto 4 ft expected along Georgia and SC upto S Santee R.

<https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/205443.shtml?#contents>

--
[SURGE!]
Florida's Gulf coast is vulnerable to storm surge. Idalia is pushing up to
11 feet of it
YAHOO!News, 28 Aug 2023 21:13Z
Florida's Gulf Coast is particularly vulnerable to storm surge thanks to a
wide, shallow stretch of seafloor called the West ...

More than half of European ski resorts facing 'very high risk' from climate
change, study finds
ABC News, 28 Aug 2023 20:14Z
The sight of grassy slopes at Australia's ski resorts this winter has been
the stuff of nightmares for skiers, snowboarders ...

[Only 50 years left!]

World Oil Statistics
The world consumes 35,442,913,090 barrels of oil as of the year 2016,
equivalent to 97,103,871 barrels per day. · Global oil consumption per
capita is 5 barrels ...
Oil Reserves: 1,650,585,140,000
Oil Consumption: 35,442,913,090
Reserves/Consumption: 47 <== years left i.e. 2016+47 == 2063
-- Worldometer

Electric utilities face billions in wildfire liability with aging power
lines risking another catastrophe
NBC 7 San Diego, 28 Aug 2023 20:11Z
Aging, fragile power infrastructure combined with drought conditions and
high winds have created a recipe for disaster.

Are climate reparations finally on the way for vulnerable countries?
Al Jazeera on MSN, 28 Aug 2023 21:02Z
Significant change in action' under way to compensate nations under direct
assault from climate chaos, observers say.

FEMA announces $3 billion for climate resiliency as time runs low for
Congress to replenish its disaster fund
CBS News, 28 Aug 2023 16:14Z
In a record-breaking year of disasters, the Federal Emergency Management
Agency is announcing nearly $3 billion Monday for ...

Qantas admits to holding at least $470 million in unused flight credits from
customers
ABC News, 28 Aug 2023 12:11Z
Qantas admits to having "around $100 million" in outstanding flight
credits owed to Jetstar customers during a fiery Senate committee
hearing in Melbourne where outgoing CEO Alan Joyce was accused of
"misleading the Australian public".

Ukraine says it retakes another village from Russian forces
Reuters, 26 June 2023
Ukraine said on Monday its forces had taken back control of the devastated
southeastern village of Rivnopil, the latest gain since it began ...

Climate retraction
ABC News, 28 Aug 2023 11:06Z
Science publisher Springer Nature retracts a 2022 study that dismissed the
climate emergency. The study was championed on the ...
[The paper -- that had been published in a journal not previously
known for climate science -- had been hyped by Sky News Australia aka
"a global hub of science misinformation". Its 4 authors are Italian
nuclear physicists. 2 of them -- known "climate skeptics" -- signed a
declaration in 2022 claiming "there is no climate emergency" and
"enriching the atm with CO2 is beneficial". Lead author Prof Gianluca
Alimonti from U Milan wrote in the paper there was no consensus that AGW was
caused by humans].

Paper that found 'climate crisis' to be 'not evident yet' retracted after ...
retractionwatch.com, 25 Aug 2023
Paper that found 'climate crisis' to be 'not evident yet' retracted after
re-review. An article published last January in a physics journal ...

Climate-fueled extreme weather is already worse than expected. What comes
next is up to us.
The Boston Globe, 28 Aug 2023 07:59Z

[Idalia:]
Florida's Gulf Coast braces for Cat 3 hurricane as Tropical Storm Idalia
strengthens
Miami Herald, 28 Aug 2023 09:44Z
Tropical Storm Idalia could become a hurricane Monday and strengthen to
Category 3 before hitting Florida's west coast Wednesday, the hurricane
center said.

Tropical Storm Idalia to hit Florida as a hurricane
News.com.au, 28 Aug 2023 05:31Z
Tropical Storm Idalia has formed in the Caribbean and could strengthen into
a hurricane, bringing high winds and storm surges to Cuba and Florida later
this...

[RI!]
Tropical Storm Idalia Strengthens Quickly, Hurricane Warning Issued for Cuba
Space Coast Daily, 28 Aug 2023 04:32Z
BREVARD COUNTY, FLORIDA. National Hurricane Center's latest report shows
Tropical Storm Idalia has strengthened since the last report on Sunday.

With hurricane, surge watches in place, Manatee opens sandbag stations
Sarasota Herald-Tribune, 28 Aug 2023 01:34Z
Manatee County, which was included areas under a hurricane and storm surge
watches Sunday, is opening self-serve sandbag stations Monday, Aug.

DeSantis declares state of emergency for much of Florida as possible
tropical storm forms in Gulf of Mexico
Fox News, 27 Aug 2023 11:29Z
GOP presidential candidate and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of
emergency for 33 of the state's 67 counties amid a possible tropical storm.

[Forecast Cat 3 nr landfall; 6-10" for Tallahassee].