the surge in california's large fires -- NASA Earth Observatory

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148908/whats-behind-californias-surge-of-large-fires/>

This is the first part of a story about fires in California. Read part
2 here.
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148913/a-multi-dimensional-fire-challenge>


What's Behind California's Surge of Large Fires?

Heat waves and droughts supercharged by climate change, a
century of fire suppression, and fast-growing populations have
made large, destructive fires more likely.

Adam Voiland.
5 Oct 2021
NASA Earth Observatory

Sept 13, 2021
<https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/148000/148908/dixiesfire_oli_2021256_lrg.jpg>

NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens and Lauren Dauphin,
using Landsat data from the US Geological Survey, fire perimeters
from the National Interagency Fire Center, and drought conditions from
the US Drought Monitor/University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Photograph
courtesy of InciWeb.

If it seems like enormous wildfires have been constantly raging in
California in recent summers, it's because they have. Eight of the
state's 10 largest fires on record--and twelve of the top
twenty--have happened within the past 5 years, according to the
California Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal
Fire). Together, those twelve fires have burned about 4% of
California's total area--a Connecticut-sized amount of land.

Two recent incidents--the Dixie fire (2021, above) and the August fire
complex (2020)--stand out for their size. Each of these burned nearly
1 mn acres--an area larger than Rhode Island--as they raged for
months in forests in Northern California. Several other large fires,
as well as many smaller ones in densely populated areas, have proven
catastrophic in terms of structures destroyed and lives lost. Thirteen
of California's twenty most destructive wildfires have occurred in the
past 5 years; they collectively destroyed 40,000 homes, businesses,
and pieces of infrastructure.

1970 - 2021
<https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/148000/148908/californiafires_map_1970-2021_lrg.png>

The total area burned by fires each year and the average size of fires
is up as well, according to Keith Weber, a remote sensing ecologist at
Idaho State University and the principal investigator of the Historic
Fires Database, a project of NASA's Earth Science Applied Sciences
program. The database shows that about 3% of the state's land
surfaces burned between 1970-1980; from 2010-2020 it was 11
percent. The shift toward larger fires is clear in the decadal maps
(above) of fire perimeter data from the National Interagency Fire Center.

"The numbers are really worrisome, but they are not at all surprising
to fire scientists," said Jon Keeley, a US Geological Survey
scientist based in Sequoia National Park. He is among several experts
who say a confluence of factors has driven the surge of large,
destructive fires in California: unusual drought and heat exacerbated
by climate change, overgrown forests caused by decades of fire
suppression, and rapid population growth along the edges of forests.

The effects of all these fires are dramatic from the ground and from
space. The false-color image at the top of the page, captured by the
Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8, shows the burn scar left
by the Dixie fire. The blaze destroyed 1,329 structures and cost
hundreds of mns of dollars to fight. The photograph below shows
charred forests in Plumas National Forest in the wake of the Dixie fire.

July 31, 2021
<https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/148000/148908/dixiefires_2021_07_31-23.32.27.653-CDT_lrg.jpg>

"The current drought is unprecedented," said Keeley. "Each of the past
three decades has had substantially worse drought than any decade over
the last 150 years." In the short-term, drought exacerbates fires by
sapping trees and plants of moisture and making them easier to
burn. Over the long-term, it adds vast amounts of dead wood to the
landscape and makes intense fires more likely.

The 2020-2021 drought has been especially extreme. "The last 2 years
in California have brought compound drought conditions--effectively,
very dry winters followed by relentless summer heat and atmospheric
aridity," explained John Abatzoglou, a climate scientist at the
University of California, Merced. "This has left soil and vegetation
parched across much of California, so the landscape is capable of
carrying fire that resists suppression."

Data from the Western Regional Climate Center indicates that the
northern two-thirds of the state received only half of normal rainfall
over the past few years. The US Drought Monitor has categorized
about 85 to 90% of California as experiencing "exceptional" or
"extreme" drought for all of summer 2021. And the period between
Sept 2019 and August 2021 ranked as the second-driest on record
for the state, according to data from the National Centers for
Environmental Information.

Jan 1, 2000 - 000
[NO URL]

Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California, Los
Angeles, added that one of the most direct ways that climate change is
influencing California fires is by dialing up the temperature. "Heat
essentially turns the atmosphere into a giant sponge that draws
moisture from plants and makes it possible for fires to burn hotter
and longer," he said. Meteorological data shows that the two-year
period from Sept 2019 through August 2021 ranks as the
third-warmest on record in California, with temperatures that were
roughly 2.9° (1.6°C) degrees warmer than average. Air can absorb about
7% more water for every degree Celsius it warms.

Abatzoglou noted that some of the harrowing scenes across Northern
California in 2020 were due to an extreme and unusual dry lightning
siege in mid-August that ignited 1000s of fires in one night. "But
in 2021 I am less convinced of bad luck," he said. "Climate change is
aiding in the warming and the more rapid drying of fuels that
predispose the land to large fires."


Instruments:
In situ Measurement
Landsat 8 -- OLI
Model
Photograph

References & Resources

* Cal Fire (2021) Tree Mortality. Accessed Oct 2, 2021.
<https://frap.fire.ca.gov/frap-projects/tree-mortality/>
* Cal Fire (2021) Incidents. Accessed Oct 2, 2021.
<https://www.fire.ca.gov/>
* Goss, M. et al. (2020) Climate change is increasing the likelihood
of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across
California. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 094016.
<https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7>
* Keeley, J. & Syphard, A. (2021) Large California wildfires: 2020
fires in historical context. Fire Ecology, 17, 22.
<https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-021-00110-7>
* Idaho State University GIS Training and Research Center (2020)
Historic Fires Database (HFD) version 3.0. Accessed Oct 2, 2021.
<https://giscenter.isu.edu/research/Techpg/HFD/>
* Li, S., Banerjee, T. (2021) Spatial and temporal pattern of
wildfires in California from 2000 to 2019. Scientific Report, 11,
8779. <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88131-9>
* NASA Earth Observatory (2021) Fires.
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/topic/fires>
* NASA Earth Science Data Systems (2021) Wildfires. Accessed Oct 2, 2021.
<https://earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/toolkits/wildfires>
* NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (2021, July 29) ECOSTRESS Data
Incorporated Into New Wildfire Response Tool. Accessed Oct 4, 2021.
<https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/ecostress-data-incorporated-into-new-wildfire-response-tool>
* NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (2021, Sept 1) From Space and in
the Air, NASA Tracks Californias Wildfires. Accessed Oct 4, 2021.
<https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/from-space-and-in-the-air-nasa-tracks-californias-wildfires>
* NASA Global Climate Change (2019) A partnership forged by
fire. Accessed Oct 2, 2021.
<https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2899/a-partnership-forged-by-fire/>
* National Geographic (2020, Sept 17) The science connecting
wildfires to climate change. Accessed Oct 2, 2021.
<https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/climate-change-increases-risk-fires-western-us>
* Parks, S. & Abatzoglou, J. (2020) Warmer and Drier Fire Seasons
Contribute to Increases in Area Burned at High Severity in Western
US Forests From 1985 to 2017. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (22),
e2020GL089858.
<https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089858>
* Williams, P. et al. (2020) Large contribution from anthropogenic
warming to an emerging North American megadrought. Science, 368
(6488), 314-318.
<http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz9600>
* Williams, P. et al. (2019) Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate
Change on Wildfire in California. Earths Future, 7 (8), 892-910.
<https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001210>

--
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[AlleyCat]

On Wed, 6 Oct 2021 11:59:21 +1100, MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com says...

> What's Behind California's Surge of Large Fires?

Same Thing As Arsetralia's... People and Fire Food

=====

Second US Academic Arrested, Accused of Starting California Wild Fires

The second US academic in two months, Alexandra Souverneva, has been arrested
and accused of serial arson in California. Last month California Professor Gary
Maynard was arrested in a separate incident, and accused of being a serial
arsonist. Neither of the accused to my knowledge has been convicted of arson
crimes.

https://i.imgur.com/TAhMX1h.jpg

Palo Alto Woman Alexandra Souverneva Charged With Starting Fawn Fire; She's
Being Investigated For Starting Other CA Wildfires

By CBS13 Staff
September 24, 2021 at 1:03 pm

SHASTA COUNTY (CBS13/AP) - Palo Alto woman Alexandra Souverneva is suspected of
lighting a fire near where the Fawn Fire started, Cal Fire announced on
Thursday.

Employees working near the JF Shea and Mountain Gate Quarries reported seeing a
woman trespassing at the property and acting irrationally.

Later in the day, authorities believe that the same woman, 30-year-old Palo
Alto resident Alexandra Souverneva, emerged from the brush near the fire line
and approached fire crews for help. Cal Fire said she had a lighter in her
pocket at the time.

...

On Friday, she was charged Friday with felony arson to wildland with an
enhancement due to the declared state of emergency California is under, said
Shasta County District Attorney Stephanie Bridgett.

Souverneva is also being investigated for starting other fires in Shasta County
and throughout the state, Bridgett said.

...

According to her LinkedIn profile, Souverneva was enrolled as a Ph.D. student
in the environmental chemistry program at State University of New York College
of Environmental Sciences and Forestry. Also on her page, she lists her current
occupation as "shaman."

...

Read more: https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2021/09/24/fawn-fire-palo-alto-
alexandra-sourverneva/

According to her Linked In profile, Alexandra's most recent job was a part time
chemistry and biology tutoring job in Palo Alto, which ended in 2020,
presumably when she decided to become a full time shaman.

Alexandra is the second academic in two months to be charged with arson. Last
month a former Californian sociology professor was also accused of starting
wildfires.

A Former College Professor Accused Of Serial Arson Is Denied Bail In California

Updated August 11, 20215:39 PM ET
BILL CHAPPELL

Firefighters battling the Dixie Fire have also been facing a second enemy: a
serial arsonist who went on a spree of setting fires in July and August - and
who sought to trap fire crews with his fires, according to agents from the U.S.
Forest Service. They allege former college professor Gary Maynard is the
culprit, citing their tracking of his movements and other evidence.

"Where Maynard went, fires started. Not just once, but over and over again,"
the government said in a court memorandum arguing for Maynard to be denied
bail.

A judge agreed to that request during a brief hearing Wednesday, saying there
are no "conditions or combination of conditions that would provide the
necessary level of safety to this community should the defendant be released."

He added: "Based on that finding, the defendant will be detained as a risk of
non-appearance and a danger to the community."

...

Maynard, 47, is a former professor who has taught at colleges in New York and
California, according to online records. Last fall, he taught in the
criminology and criminal justice department at Sonoma State University, which
says in its official bio for Maynard that he has a doctorate in sociology and
three master's degrees.

...
Read more: https://www.npr.org/2021/08/11/1026700103/former-college-professor-
arson-charges-california-dixie-fire

Let me emphasise, as far as I know neither of the accused have been convicted
of committing the arson crimes for which they were arrested. There is no
indication to my knowledge that the two accused know each other.


============================================================================

Records:

In 2021 (To Date), A Total of 222 All-Time Low Temperature Records Have Been
Broken In The United States, Versus Just The 7 For All-Time High

Also, in 2021 (To Date), U.S. Has Set 17,450 New LOW Temperature Records This
Year vs 13,886 High

Also also, in 2021 (To Date), Over the Past 7 Days, Thousands of Low
Temperature Records Fell Across the United States

Also, also also, (To Date) North America Has Set 233 New All-Time Monthly Low
Temperature Records In May (So Far) vs. Just The 18 Record Highs

Also, also also, also, Over the Past 7 Days, the United States Broke 3,782 Low
Temperature Records Vs Just the 518 Max

Also, also also, also, also, The United States (Lower-48) Just Set Its Coldest
Temperature Ever Recorded This Early In the Season

Also, also also, also, also, also, Hundreds of All-Time Records Fall Across
North America: "This Cold Weather Is Not Normal!"

The All-Time Record For 'Coldest High Temperature' Also Fell On Monday

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