Koutsoyiannis et al 2008: On the credibility of climate predictions
By Steve McIntyre
As noted by Pat Frank, Demetris Koutsoyiannis’ new paper has been
published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions of
temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide.
Demetris notified me of this today as well.
The paper is open access and can be downloaded here:
www.atypon-link.com/IAHS/doi/abs/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671
Here’s the citation: D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS &
A. CHRISTOFIDES “On the credibility of climate predictions”
Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53 (2008).
Abstract “Geographically distributed predictions of future climate,
obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many
other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here
we compare the output of various models to temperature and
precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100
years) records from around the globe. The results show that models
perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model
projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models
can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.”
Par Frank observes: “In essence, they found that climate models have
no predictive value.”
..denialist lie site.
Wow, and he picked an obscure journal on hydrology to publish this
ground-breaking paper on climate models in!
> Here’s the citation: D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS &
> A. CHRISTOFIDES “On the credibility of climate predictions”
> Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53 (2008).
>
They took the temperature at 8 stations and compared them to what
models predict. The problem is, no model predicts the temp. at any
individual site!
How about addressing the peer reviewed science?
It is still peer reviewed science.
>
> > Here’s the citation: D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS &
> > A. CHRISTOFIDES “On the credibility of climate predictions”
> > Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53 (2008).
>
> They took the temperature at 8 stations and compared them to what
> models predict. The problem is, no model predicts the temp. at any
> individual site!
So, models don't predict temps anywhere. We agree.
ROFL !
Or: Models only reliably predict temperature if they were thrown
together by Hansen & Al.
--
Normal warming will be resumed as soon as technically possible.
It's funny to watch dumbasses dance.
http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/models-dont-work.html
LOL No response to that one, eh, laughing boy?
This 'research' means nothing about GW datasets OR models, despite the
overblown claims of your foreign buddies here.
Sure - it's no-data crap from an obscure journal hungry for bucks.
>
> It's funny to watch dumbasses dance.
>
> http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/models-dont-work.html
Old stuff, totally outdated.
See: <http://tinyurl.com/5ptf6q>
It's peer reviewed science.