essentially, climate models have no predictive value, peer reviewed science says so

11 views
Skip to first unread message

Tunderbar

unread,
Jul 30, 2008, 10:08:00 AM7/30/08
to
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3361

Koutsoyiannis et al 2008: On the credibility of climate predictions
By Steve McIntyre
As noted by Pat Frank, Demetris Koutsoyiannis’ new paper has been
published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions of
temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide.
Demetris notified me of this today as well.

The paper is open access and can be downloaded here:
www.atypon-link.com/IAHS/doi/abs/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671

Here’s the citation: D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS &
A. CHRISTOFIDES “On the credibility of climate predictions”
Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53 (2008).

Abstract “Geographically distributed predictions of future climate,
obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many
other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here
we compare the output of various models to temperature and
precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100
years) records from around the globe. The results show that models
perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model
projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models
can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.”

Par Frank observes: “In essence, they found that climate models have
no predictive value.”

marcodbeast

unread,
Jul 30, 2008, 12:20:47 PM7/30/08
to

"Tunderbar" <tdco...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:a5c90513-aea0-41a0...@27g2000hsf.googlegroups.com...
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3361

..denialist lie site.


Lloyd

unread,
Jul 30, 2008, 1:34:09 PM7/30/08
to
On Jul 30, 10:08 am, Tunderbar <tdcom...@gmail.com> wrote:
> http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3361
>
> Koutsoyiannis et al 2008: On the credibility of climate predictions
> By Steve McIntyre
> As noted by Pat Frank, Demetris Koutsoyiannis’ new paper has been
> published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions of
> temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide.
> Demetris notified me of this today as well.
>
> The paper is open access and can be downloaded here:www.atypon-link.com/IAHS/doi/abs/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671
>

Wow, and he picked an obscure journal on hydrology to publish this
ground-breaking paper on climate models in!

> Here’s the citation: D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS &
> A. CHRISTOFIDES “On the credibility of climate predictions”
> Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53 (2008).
>

They took the temperature at 8 stations and compared them to what
models predict. The problem is, no model predicts the temp. at any
individual site!

Tunderbar

unread,
Jul 30, 2008, 1:48:14 PM7/30/08
to
On Jul 30, 11:20 am, "marcodbeast" <its@casual> wrote:
> "Tunderbar" <tdcom...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> news:a5c90513-aea0-41a0...@27g2000hsf.googlegroups.com...http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3361
>
> ..denialist lie site.

How about addressing the peer reviewed science?

Tunderbar

unread,
Jul 30, 2008, 1:49:24 PM7/30/08
to
On Jul 30, 12:34 pm, Lloyd <lpar...@emory.edu> wrote:
> On Jul 30, 10:08 am, Tunderbar <tdcom...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3361
>
> > Koutsoyiannis et al 2008: On the credibility of climate predictions
> > By Steve McIntyre
> > As noted by Pat Frank, Demetris Koutsoyiannis’ new paper has been
> > published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions of
> > temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide.
> > Demetris notified me of this today as well.
>
> > The paper is open access and can be downloaded here:www.atypon-link.com/IAHS/doi/abs/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671
>
> Wow, and he picked an obscure journal on hydrology to publish this
> ground-breaking paper on climate models in!

It is still peer reviewed science.

>
> > Here’s the citation: D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS &
> > A. CHRISTOFIDES “On the credibility of climate predictions”
> > Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53 (2008).
>
> They took the temperature at 8 stations and compared them to what
> models predict.  The problem is, no model predicts the temp. at any
> individual site!

So, models don't predict temps anywhere. We agree.

SunDancer

unread,
Jul 30, 2008, 3:46:08 PM7/30/08
to

ROFL !

Or: Models only reliably predict temperature if they were thrown
together by Hansen & Al.

--
Normal warming will be resumed as soon as technically possible.


Message has been deleted

marcodbeast

unread,
Jul 30, 2008, 7:47:44 PM7/30/08
to

"SunDancer" <No...@Nowhere.invalid> wrote in message
news:mn.f51a7d875...@Nowhere.invalid...

> Tunderbar wrote:
>> On Jul 30, 12:34 pm, Lloyd <lpar...@emory.edu> wrote:
>
>>> They took the temperature at 8 stations and compared them to what
>>> models predict. The problem is, no model predicts the temp. at any
>>> individual site!
>>
>> So, models don't predict temps anywhere. We agree.
>
> ROFL !
>
> Or: Models only reliably predict temperature if they were thrown together
> by Hansen & Al.

It's funny to watch dumbasses dance.

http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/models-dont-work.html


marcodbeast

unread,
Jul 30, 2008, 7:50:11 PM7/30/08
to

"Peter Muehlbauer" <spamt...@AT.frankenexpress.de> wrote in message
news:ept194p96e65r54gv...@4ax.com...

> Lloyd <lpa...@emory.edu> wrote:
>
>> On Jul 30, 10:08 am, Tunderbar <tdcom...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> > http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3361
>> >
>> > Koutsoyiannis et al 2008: On the credibility of climate predictions
>> > By Steve McIntyre
>> > As noted by Pat Frank, Demetris Koutsoyiannis' new paper has been
>> > published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions of
>> > temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide.
>> > Demetris notified me of this today as well.
>> >
>> > The paper is open access and can be downloaded
>> > here:www.atypon-link.com/IAHS/doi/abs/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671
>> >
>>
>> Wow, and he picked an obscure journal on hydrology to publish this
>> ground-breaking paper on climate models in
>
> BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>
> Imagine Llied kneeing in front of his living room wall, right before a
> mouse
> hole, ready to strike.
> "It must come out of here! There is no other chance! Otherwise the mouse
> does
> not exist!"
> ... and 50 other mouse holes around him ....
>
> MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>
> LLoyd Parker, you're making an idiot out of yourself.
> You don't need any help from us, I see.

>
>>
>> > Here's the citation: D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS &
>> > A. CHRISTOFIDES "On the credibility of climate predictions"
>> > Hydrological Sciences-Journal-des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53 (2008).

>> >
>>
>> They took the temperature at 8 stations and compared them to what
>> models predict. The problem is, no model predicts the temp. at any
>> individual site!

LOL No response to that one, eh, laughing boy?

This 'research' means nothing about GW datasets OR models, despite the
overblown claims of your foreign buddies here.

marcodbeast

unread,
Jul 30, 2008, 7:50:48 PM7/30/08
to

"Tunderbar" <tdco...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:099d44db-2927-4efe...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com...

Sure - it's no-data crap from an obscure journal hungry for bucks.


SunDancer

unread,
Jul 31, 2008, 4:13:22 AM7/31/08
to
marcodbeast wrote:

Old stuff, totally outdated.

See: <http://tinyurl.com/5ptf6q>

Tunderbar

unread,
Jul 31, 2008, 9:46:20 AM7/31/08
to
On Jul 30, 6:50 pm, "marcodbeast" <its@casual> wrote:
> "Tunderbar" <tdcom...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> news:099d44db-2927-4efe...@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com...
> On Jul 30, 11:20 am, "marcodbeast" <its@casual> wrote:
>
> > "Tunderbar" <tdcom...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> >news:a5c90513-aea0-41a0...@27g2000hsf.googlegroups.com...http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3361
>
> > ..denialist lie site.
>
> How about addressing the peer reviewed science?
>
>   Sure - it's no-data crap from an obscure journal hungry for bucks.

It's peer reviewed science.

Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages