Hey Rudy... Suck on It - There IS No Climate "Crisis" - Part 2

[AlleyCat]

The IPCC Says No Climate Crisis

OK, quick question: What do these weather phenomena have in common?

Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions)
Aridity
Avalanche (snow)
Average rain
Average Wind Speed
Coastal Flood
Drought Affecting Crops (agricultural drought)
Drought From Lack Of Rain (hydrological drought)
Erosion of Coastlines
Fire Weather (hot and windy)
Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods)
Frost
Hail
Heavy Rain
Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms
Landslides
Marine Heatwaves
Ocean Alkalinity
Radiation at the Earth's Surface
River/Lake Floods
Sand and Dust Storms
Sea Level
Severe Wind Storms
Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets
Tropical Cyclones

Give up? So would I.

What these phenomena have in common is that the IPCC says that there is no
significant evidence that these phenomena have changed (either increased or
decreased) in the "historical period". In other words, there's no evidence that
"global warming" has changed the strength or frequency of those weather
phenomena.

So when folks claim things like "We're already seeing the effects of global
warming in storms/cyclones/floods/fire weather/sea level/etc./etc.", feel free
to tell them that the IPCC and reality itself beg to disagree.

And when Yale360 reflects on the 2017 Hurricane Harvey by saying " If not for
climate change, 2017's Hurricane Harvey might have flooded half as many homes
in the Houston area, a new study finds." and "Climate change is happening right
now with real and substantial costs", you can feel free to point and laugh.

Don't believe me? Here, with a large hat tip to a Substack post by Dr. Roger
Pielke Jr., is Table 12.12 regarding "Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs)" from
Chapter 12 of Working Group 1 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, the most
recent report:

Figure 1. IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 12 Table 12.12

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ipcc-table-
12.12-CIDs-drivers.png?resize=768%2C1060&ssl=1

So ... what weather phenomena does the IPCC say have actually changed? Well,
they say global average air and ocean temperatures have increased by a few
tenths of one percent. No news there.

Then they say "extreme heat" has increased. But they're not talking about
actual temperature. Instead, they're using something called "Health Heat Index
(HHI)".

And while Table 12.12 in Chapter 12 says days with "extreme heat" increased in
the historical period, the IPCC is disagreeing with itself. The problem is the
previous chapter-Box 11.2 of Table 1 in IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 11 says the
increase in extreme heat is "Not assessed", because the "baseline is 1981-
2000".

Sounds like dissension in the ranks ...

Bemused by this "extreme heat" idea which the IPCC has both claimed and denied,
I went to see how they calculate the HHI. Strap in and keep your arms and hands
inside the vehicle, it's a rough ride. Here are the calculations. The basic
equation is:

HHI = c1 + c2 * T + c3 * T ^ 2 + RH * (c4 + c5 * T + c6 * T ^ 2) + RH ^ 2 * (c7
+ c8 * T + c9 * T ^ 2))

"T" is the temperature in °F, and "RH" is the relative humidity in percent. As
for the others:

c1?=?-42.379
c2?=?2.04901523
c3?=?-6.83783?×?10-3
c4?=?10.14333127
c5?=?-0.22475541
c6?=?1.22874?×?10-3
c7?=?-0.05481717
c8?=?8.5282?×?10-4
c9?=?-1.99?×?10-6

Zowie! Gotta love tunable parameters specified to 8 significant decimals. But
wait, because as they say on TV, "There's more!" Here are the further details.

If RH?>?13% and T is between 80?°F and 112?°F, then HHI is adjusted by
subtracting the following value:

Adjustment = ((13 - RH) / 4) * sqrt((17 - abs(T - 95)) / 17)

If RH?>?85% and T is between 80?°F and 87?°F, the following value is added to
HHI:

Adjustment = ((RH - 85) / 10) * ((87 - T) / 5)

If HHI?<?80?°F, then HHI is recalculated as follows:

HHI = 0.5 * (T + 61.0 + ((T-68.0)*1.2) + (RH*0.094)))

In order to confuse the unwary, the result is given units of degrees Fahrenheit
(°F). However, this is not physically possible, because the calculation
includes T, T^2, and sqrt(T).

In any case, "Extreme Heat" in the IPCC lexicon is when the Health Heat Index
goes over 105°F, referred to as "AT105F" ... whatever that means.

To find out how unusual the AT105F threshold is, I gathered the NOAA daily
temperature and humidity data for 1582 US cities, and calculated the HHI for a
number of them. Turns out that in some cities in the US, like say Yuma,
Arizona, annually on average there are 30 days or more with an HHI of 105°F or
more. Sometimes far more. This is supposed to scare us?

What else does the IPCC say has changed in the "historical period"? Well, they
say "cold spells" have increased. And I might be missing it, but I can't find
anywhere that the IPCC defines exactly what they are calling a "cold spell".
The IPCC Working Group I Glossary doesn't define the term at all ... so we have
no clue what they're referring to. Science at its finest. In any case, whatever
they might think "cold spells" are, they say they've decreased in Australia,
Africa, and Northern South America. Since cold spells kill far, far more people
than heat spells, seems to me this is a good thing.

Other than that? Well, they say that river, lake, and Arctic sea ice have
decreased.

And they have "Medium Confidence" that permafrost has decreased, that there's
been a slight decrease in dissolved oxygen and a slight increase in salinity in
some parts of the ocean.

Oh, and surface CO2 levels have increased.

And that's it.

Call me crazy, but I'm not seeing any "climate emergency" or "climate crisis"
visible in any of that.

Of course, they go on to use the most alarmist, most useless future scenario,
the scenario called either "RCP8.5" or "SSP5-8.5", to make all kinds of claims
based on Tinkertoy? climate models about how bad things will be in 2050 and
2100 ... but we've seen how totally wrong all such climate projections have
proven to be over the last 40 years. So there's no reason to believe these
projections.

To illustrate some of these issues, I took a look at the US National Ocean and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) extreme temperature and other extreme weather
records for the US states. To start with, here are the decades when states hit
their maximum temperatures.

Figure 2. State maximum temperature records by decade.

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/us-state-
decade-records-max-temperature.png?resize=720%2C649&ssl=1

Now, bear in mind that the temperature has been rising, in fits and starts,
over the entire period shown in these state extreme graphs. And more than half
the states set maximum temperature records in the 1930s. Sorry, but given that
data, I'm not believing that extreme temperatures are a problem in the US.

How about extreme minimum temperatures?

Figure 3. State minimum temperature records by decade.

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/us-state-
decade-records-min-temperature.png?resize=720%2C649&ssl=1

No clear pattern in that one, which I suppose is why they specifically do not
say there's been a change in "cold spells" in the US.

Next, here're the heavy 24-hour rain records:

Figure 4. State 24-hour rainfall records by decade.

Again, no clear pattern. Heavy rain peaked in the "90s but has been decreasing
since then.

Finally, here's snowfall.

Figure 5. State 24-hour snowfall records by decade.

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/us-state-
decade-records-max-rain.png?resize=720%2C649&ssl=1

The period 1960-2000 was a time of heavy snow, but since then it's dropped off.

This US data is just another part of the mountain of evidence as to why,
despite all of the posturing, the IPCC doesn't think there's any significant
evidence of any "climate emergency" or "climate crisis".

However, don't expect things to change soon. We now have what might be called
the "Climate/Industrial Complex", complete with lots of people making lots of
money off the imaginary "climate crisis", and as Upton Sinclair remarked,

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends
upon his not understanding it.

I've covered this lack of any evidence for a climate "crisis" or "emergency" in
my post "Where Is The Climate Emergency?".

And the alarmists" answer to that question?

"We doan gotta show you no steenkin" emergency ... we're climate scientists!"

Yeah, right ...

=====

July... so hot!

Heavy Snow Pounds Mt Hutt, New Zealand

Argentina Shivers

It's Snowing Across Europe's Higher Elevations

Antarctica Plunges To -83.2C (-117.8F) - Earth's Lowest Temperature Since 2017

Record-Challenging Cold Sweeps Europe

South America And South Africa Cool

Antarctica Posts Coldest Temp Since 2017

Polar Fronts To Batter New Zealand

Heavy Snow Hits New Zealand

Mammoth To Extend Ski Season Into August

Exceptional Cold Grips Australia

Record Cold Argentina

Mammoth Snowpack Still 500% Above Average

Record Cold Siberia

Antarctica Plunges To -80.5C (-112.9F)

Swings Between Extremes In South America

Mid-July Snow In British Columbia

"Where Has The Summer Gone?" Asks BBC Weather

Utah's Historically Cold 2023

Anomalous Cold Engulfs Japan

4ft Of Summer Snow Strands Trekkers In Northern India

"Extreme Cold" Strikes Tanzania
Ekurhuleni Residents Urged To "Use Electricity Sparingly" During SA Freeze
Aussie Snowfields Celebrate Healthy Dumpings
Cool U.S.
Best California Rafting In 40-Years Thanks To Historic Snowpack And Cold Spring
Snow Pile Remains At MSP Airport
Southern Africa Is Still Freezing
Moscow's Year Without A Summer
Southern Africa Freezes, Rare Snowfall Hits Johannesburg
Summer Snows Slam Northern India, Effort Underway To Rescue 300 Trapped
Tourists
Millions Of Aussies Hit By "Brutal Cold Snap"
Summer Snow In Skardu, Pakistan
Cold Junes For Turkey, Slovakia, Serbia & Bermuda
Record-Snowy Winter Raises Great Salt Lake
Yosemite's Tioga Road STILL Closed Due To Snow
Cool Junes For Pakistan, Fiji And The United States
Record Lows Sweep Northern U.S.
Coldest Fourth Of Julys Ever Up North
Moose Jaw Breaks 105-Year-Old Low Temperature Record
Below-Average June For Eastern Europe
Millions Of Aussies To Be Hit By "Brutal Cold Snap"
Yosemite Glaciers Post Record Snowfall
Models Corn Belt Warming Fail
Cold Sets In Across South Africa, Snow Too
California's "Deadly Cold" Rivers

[Kym Horsell]

The nighttime IR puts July into No 1 spot for July's, miles ahead of 2nd place in 2016 in the middle of a super El Nino.

The day by day upto 31 Jul gmt looks like:

date global av sst deg C rel 1980s avgs
01jul2023 0.803065
02jul2023 0.8047
03jul2023 0.807995
04jul2023 0.80491
05jul2023 0.806978
06jul2023 0.809519
07jul2023 0.810391
08jul2023 0.80946
09jul2023 0.80909
10jul2023 0.820644
11jul2023 0.825814
12jul2023 0.832175
13jul2023 0.84098
14jul2023 0.84953
15jul2023 0.860273
16jul2023 0.865972
17jul2023 0.871209
18jul2023 0.88268
19jul2023 0.889493
20jul2023 0.898726
21jul2023 0.897548
22jul2023 0.88782
23jul2023 0.893468
24jul2023 0.902752
25jul2023 0.907942
26jul2023 0.912343
27jul2023 0.913548
28jul2023 0.920101
29jul2023 0.925988
30jul2023 0.932395

avg first 2 wks: 0.820541
avg last 2 wks: 0.900971
avg: 0.860756

Warnest July SST (Hadley):
<-- 2023 +.86
2016 0.670
2020 0.660
2019 0.643
2015 0.637
2021 0.580
2014 0.551
2017 0.540
1998 0.526
2009 0.523
2010 0.500

--
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[A trillion -- that's the one with 3 zeros, right?]

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The `world's coldest village' just experienced the highest temperature it's
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Phoenix extends record heat run, Washington wildfire surges into Canada
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NYT, 30 Jul 2023

Trump's $714 million 'big lie' defamation lawsuit against CNN dismissed
ABC News, 30 Jul 2023 02:40Z
A US federal judge throws out Donald Trump's defamation lawsuit against
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World Oil Statistics
The world consumes 35,442,913,090 barrels of oil as of the year 2016,
equivalent to 97,103,871 barrels per day. · Global oil consumption per
capita is 5 barrels ...
Oil Reserves: 1,650,585,140,000
Oil Consumption: 35,442,913,090
Reserves/Consumption: 47 <== years left i.e. 2016+47 == 2063
-- Worldometer

The US government portrays itself as the world's preeminent
superpower, so to acknowledge that there are things in their
airspace, whatever they are, that are faster and more manoeuvrable
and run rings around fast jets doesn't play very well.
So there's the embarrassment factor, and maybe a little bit of
fear that either an adversary has made a quantum leap in
development, which has left the US in a poor second place, or, as
some believe, this really is extra terrestrial, in which case we're
not at the top of the food chain anymore.
-- Nick Pope, 02 May 2023

Sales of invasive, illegal plants online are growing -- and buying them could
cost you
ABC Rural, 31 Jul 2023 05:34Z
Authorities urge consumers to do their homework to ensure the seeds and
plants they are buying or selling are not on the prohibited list, as
ignorance will be no protection against hefty fines.

Southeast Asia moves closer to economic unity with new regional payments system
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[Sailing Ships Will Nebba Werk!]
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[Got Worms?]
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War LIVE: Moscow government buildings damaged in reported Ukrainian drone attack
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An Adelaide charity says it is struggling to fill its op shop shelves
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pressures turn to selling unwanted goods online instead of donating them.