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it's da sunspots!!!
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kymho...@gmail.com
Feb 17, 2024, 9:09:29 PMFeb 17
to
My AI programs are doing OK. This is the 2nd time they spotted something
totally new to me that had only been discovered by a real scientist
in the preceding 12 m. The first one was the link between Jupiter
and the ENSO cycle.
And now I find the position of Jupiter predicts the number of sunspots
(and of course then global warming ;).
Sunspot cycles are connected to the Earth and Jupiter
Here we show that the solar cycle is deterministic, and connected to the
orbital motions of the Earth and Jupiter. This planetary-influence theory
allows us to model the whole sunspot record, as well as the near past and
the near future of sunspot numbers.
-- arxiv.org, 14 Nov 2023
But my little programs have gone 1 better. Seems the link between
the position of NEPTUNE and sunspots is a bit stronger than the link
between Jupiter and sunspots.
The distance of Jupiter explains about 25% of avg monthly sunspots
while the distance of Neptune from the sun explains around 30% of
av monthly sunspots. Quite a big chunk for something previously thought
to be more or less a random walk.
The simple time series regression of the distance between Jupiter and
the sun and the av number of sunspots month by month is thus:
Year/Month Dist Jup from sun av#sunspots Model
(AU)
(Random sample of ~900 lines, order by Jup distance),
2011.04 4.9495 45.7 42.2335
1999.46 4.95069 136.3 42.3818**(model is 2s too small)
1964.21 4.95983 22.3 43.5241**(2s too big)
2010.62 4.9618 26.4 43.7703**(2s too big)
1974.96 4.96908 36.1 44.6784*(1s too big)
1964.46 4.97113 15 44.9331**
2000.12 4.97174 170.6 45.0094**
1998.62 4.97275 93.5 45.1349**
2012.04 4.97523 95.5 45.444**
2012.12 4.98063 98.1 46.1159**
1998.46 4.9834 85.4 46.4602**
1998.38 4.98939 80.8 47.2037**
2012.29 4.99289 95.1 47.6383**
2012.46 5.007 86.6 49.3854**
2012.54 5.01467 84.5 50.3333**
2009.79 5.02301 10.9 51.3631**
1953.38 5.02966 25 52.1814**
2001.12 5.05961 152.5 55.8589**
2013.04 5.06836 86.8 56.928**
2013.12 5.07796 86.1 58.1**
2013.29 5.09815 84.3 60.5579**
2008.46 5.18668 4.8 71.2191**
1996.54 5.19882 11.3 72.6667**
1996.38 5.22106 11.2 75.3095**
1984.46 5.22774 61.7 76.1021**
1996.21 5.24305 13.7 77.9125**
2014.46 5.25264 114.1 79.0444**
2002.62 5.25406 155.4 79.211**
2002.96 5.29655 131.4 84.1996**
1995.71 5.30582 19 85.2821**
2003.04 5.30689 129.6 85.4073**
1983.71 5.32083 91.7 87.0317
2003.21 5.32593 118.7 87.6251**
1955.79 5.33307 91.3 88.4541
2003.29 5.33542 111.9 88.727**
2015.46 5.36955 72.1 92.6765**
1971.21 5.38215 105.3 94.128*
1991.96 5.38512 183.1 94.4695**
2006.46 5.4132 26.2 97.6895**
2004.21 5.41924 73.2 98.3805**
1982.62 5.41934 153.5 98.3922**
2017.62 5.44866 19.6 101.733**
MODEL:
Durbin-Watson d = 0.009534
d < dL (1.564872): Positive auto-corr at 5%
(Serial corr: estimated rho = 0.995949)
y = 619.255*log(x) + -948.132
beta in 619.255 +- 60.7754 (90% CI)
alpha in -948.132 +- 10.0117
T-test: P(beta>0) = 1.000000
Rank test: Spearman corr = 0.205328
cv sd 5% = 0.306000; accept H0: not_connected
r2 = 0.25327509
While the TS regr for NEPTUNE and sunspots has a slightly better R2
and the Rank test as well as the T-test pass the "not just lucky" stats
tests:
Year/Month Dist Nept from sun av#sunspots Model
(AU)
2015.79 29.9615 33.2 21.8299**(2s under)
2015.38 29.9653 47.8 22.2434**
2014.12 29.978 89.3 23.6686**
2013.96 29.9798 94.7 23.88**
2012.21 30 86.1 26.3696**
2011.88 30.0039 85.8 26.8798**
2011.71 30.0059 85.1 27.1373**
2011.46 30.0088 90.9 27.527**
2011.46 30.0088 90.9 27.527**
2010.29 30.0216 53.8 29.3094**
2010.12 30.0232 45.7 29.5536**
2009.88 30.0258 34.5 29.919*
2009.38 30.0306 20.8 30.6372**(sd over)
2007.79 30.0442 3.2 32.7459**
2006.88 30.0513 9.9 33.9137**
2006.21 30.0565 19 34.7828**
2006.12 30.0571 19.8 34.8897**
2004.46 30.0709 45 37.3149*
2003.96 30.0754 56.6 38.1526**
2002.88 30.0862 89.1 40.2156**
2001.46 30.1023 171.3 43.5183**
1997.62 30.1495 89.8 54.8012**
1997.21 30.1539 65.4 56.0055*
1996.62 30.1597 30.4 57.6072**
1995.96 30.1658 13.4 59.3424**
1994.54 30.1771 25.9 62.6995**
1994.38 30.1783 29.4 63.0721**
1993.88 30.1818 39.4 64.1691**
1992.21 30.1934 99.3 67.8892**
1991.96 30.1952 106.3 68.4752**
1983.96 30.2646 31.6 96.0113**
1982.21 30.2734 123.9 100.186*
1980.96 30.2777 196 102.308**
1978.12 30.2866 175.2 106.847**
1977.71 30.2883 147.3 107.72**
1951.29 30.2993 56.2 113.666**
1951.96 30.3019 38.8 115.089**
1955.71 30.3212 211.8 126.411**
1965.79 30.3227 89.5 127.348**
1970.62 30.3227 92.7 127.296**
1966.38 30.3229 119.8 127.437
1966.54 30.323 129.4 127.481
1967.71 30.3237 148.4 127.914*
1969.54 30.3239 149.1 128.079*
1962.88 30.3263 37.4 129.577**
1962.12 30.3281 42.1 130.692**
1961.96 30.3285 42.9 130.935**
1959.29 30.3317 172.1 133.005**
MODEL:
Durbin-Watson d = 0.008851
d < dL (1.566749): Positive auto-corr at 5%
(Serial corr; estimated rho = 0.993197)
y = 1.11355e-216 * x^147.161
beta in 147.161 +- 12.7659 (90% CI)
alpha in -497.251 +- 4.3484
T-test: P(beta>0) = 1.000000
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.399797
cv 2s 5% = 0.306000; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.30554694
--
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totally new to me that had only been discovered by a real scientist
in the preceding 12 m. The first one was the link between Jupiter
and the ENSO cycle.
And now I find the position of Jupiter predicts the number of sunspots
(and of course then global warming ;).
Sunspot cycles are connected to the Earth and Jupiter
Here we show that the solar cycle is deterministic, and connected to the
orbital motions of the Earth and Jupiter. This planetary-influence theory
allows us to model the whole sunspot record, as well as the near past and
the near future of sunspot numbers.
-- arxiv.org, 14 Nov 2023
But my little programs have gone 1 better. Seems the link between
the position of NEPTUNE and sunspots is a bit stronger than the link
between Jupiter and sunspots.
The distance of Jupiter explains about 25% of avg monthly sunspots
while the distance of Neptune from the sun explains around 30% of
av monthly sunspots. Quite a big chunk for something previously thought
to be more or less a random walk.
The simple time series regression of the distance between Jupiter and
the sun and the av number of sunspots month by month is thus:
Year/Month Dist Jup from sun av#sunspots Model
(AU)
(Random sample of ~900 lines, order by Jup distance),
2011.04 4.9495 45.7 42.2335
1999.46 4.95069 136.3 42.3818**(model is 2s too small)
1964.21 4.95983 22.3 43.5241**(2s too big)
2010.62 4.9618 26.4 43.7703**(2s too big)
1974.96 4.96908 36.1 44.6784*(1s too big)
1964.46 4.97113 15 44.9331**
2000.12 4.97174 170.6 45.0094**
1998.62 4.97275 93.5 45.1349**
2012.04 4.97523 95.5 45.444**
2012.12 4.98063 98.1 46.1159**
1998.46 4.9834 85.4 46.4602**
1998.38 4.98939 80.8 47.2037**
2012.29 4.99289 95.1 47.6383**
2012.46 5.007 86.6 49.3854**
2012.54 5.01467 84.5 50.3333**
2009.79 5.02301 10.9 51.3631**
1953.38 5.02966 25 52.1814**
2001.12 5.05961 152.5 55.8589**
2013.04 5.06836 86.8 56.928**
2013.12 5.07796 86.1 58.1**
2013.29 5.09815 84.3 60.5579**
2008.46 5.18668 4.8 71.2191**
1996.54 5.19882 11.3 72.6667**
1996.38 5.22106 11.2 75.3095**
1984.46 5.22774 61.7 76.1021**
1996.21 5.24305 13.7 77.9125**
2014.46 5.25264 114.1 79.0444**
2002.62 5.25406 155.4 79.211**
2002.96 5.29655 131.4 84.1996**
1995.71 5.30582 19 85.2821**
2003.04 5.30689 129.6 85.4073**
1983.71 5.32083 91.7 87.0317
2003.21 5.32593 118.7 87.6251**
1955.79 5.33307 91.3 88.4541
2003.29 5.33542 111.9 88.727**
2015.46 5.36955 72.1 92.6765**
1971.21 5.38215 105.3 94.128*
1991.96 5.38512 183.1 94.4695**
2006.46 5.4132 26.2 97.6895**
2004.21 5.41924 73.2 98.3805**
1982.62 5.41934 153.5 98.3922**
2017.62 5.44866 19.6 101.733**
MODEL:
Durbin-Watson d = 0.009534
d < dL (1.564872): Positive auto-corr at 5%
(Serial corr: estimated rho = 0.995949)
y = 619.255*log(x) + -948.132
beta in 619.255 +- 60.7754 (90% CI)
alpha in -948.132 +- 10.0117
T-test: P(beta>0) = 1.000000
Rank test: Spearman corr = 0.205328
cv sd 5% = 0.306000; accept H0: not_connected
r2 = 0.25327509
While the TS regr for NEPTUNE and sunspots has a slightly better R2
and the Rank test as well as the T-test pass the "not just lucky" stats
tests:
Year/Month Dist Nept from sun av#sunspots Model
(AU)
2015.79 29.9615 33.2 21.8299**(2s under)
2015.38 29.9653 47.8 22.2434**
2014.12 29.978 89.3 23.6686**
2013.96 29.9798 94.7 23.88**
2012.21 30 86.1 26.3696**
2011.88 30.0039 85.8 26.8798**
2011.71 30.0059 85.1 27.1373**
2011.46 30.0088 90.9 27.527**
2011.46 30.0088 90.9 27.527**
2010.29 30.0216 53.8 29.3094**
2010.12 30.0232 45.7 29.5536**
2009.88 30.0258 34.5 29.919*
2009.38 30.0306 20.8 30.6372**(sd over)
2007.79 30.0442 3.2 32.7459**
2006.88 30.0513 9.9 33.9137**
2006.21 30.0565 19 34.7828**
2006.12 30.0571 19.8 34.8897**
2004.46 30.0709 45 37.3149*
2003.96 30.0754 56.6 38.1526**
2002.88 30.0862 89.1 40.2156**
2001.46 30.1023 171.3 43.5183**
1997.62 30.1495 89.8 54.8012**
1997.21 30.1539 65.4 56.0055*
1996.62 30.1597 30.4 57.6072**
1995.96 30.1658 13.4 59.3424**
1994.54 30.1771 25.9 62.6995**
1994.38 30.1783 29.4 63.0721**
1993.88 30.1818 39.4 64.1691**
1992.21 30.1934 99.3 67.8892**
1991.96 30.1952 106.3 68.4752**
1983.96 30.2646 31.6 96.0113**
1982.21 30.2734 123.9 100.186*
1980.96 30.2777 196 102.308**
1978.12 30.2866 175.2 106.847**
1977.71 30.2883 147.3 107.72**
1951.29 30.2993 56.2 113.666**
1951.96 30.3019 38.8 115.089**
1955.71 30.3212 211.8 126.411**
1965.79 30.3227 89.5 127.348**
1970.62 30.3227 92.7 127.296**
1966.38 30.3229 119.8 127.437
1966.54 30.323 129.4 127.481
1967.71 30.3237 148.4 127.914*
1969.54 30.3239 149.1 128.079*
1962.88 30.3263 37.4 129.577**
1962.12 30.3281 42.1 130.692**
1961.96 30.3285 42.9 130.935**
1959.29 30.3317 172.1 133.005**
MODEL:
Durbin-Watson d = 0.008851
d < dL (1.566749): Positive auto-corr at 5%
(Serial corr; estimated rho = 0.993197)
y = 1.11355e-216 * x^147.161
beta in 147.161 +- 12.7659 (90% CI)
alpha in -497.251 +- 4.3484
T-test: P(beta>0) = 1.000000
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.399797
cv 2s 5% = 0.306000; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.30554694
--
Air Canada must honor refund policy invented by airline's chatbot
Ars Technica, 16 Feb 2024 17:32Z
After months of resisting, Air Canada was forced to give a partial refund to
a grieving passenger who was misled by an airline chatbot inaccurately
explaining the airline's bereavement travel policy.
New Clean200 List Puts Clean Power Leaders Ahead Of Fossil Fuels
CleanTechnica, 16 Feb 2024 12:39Z
'I'm just blown away:' Duke Energy customers shocked over skyrocketing
Jan bills
WLOS, 16 Feb 2024 09:38Z
Financial Giants Pull $14 Trillion From Climate Group That Pressures
Companies To Take 'Action On Climate Change'
The Daily Wire, 17 Feb 2024 17:25Z
Financial giants JPMorgan and State Street announced this week that they
were leaving the Climate Action 100+ organization, an investors group that
pushes...
World Oil Statistics
The world consumes 35,442,913,090 barrels of oil as of the year 2016,
equivalent to 97,103,871 barrels per day. · Global oil consumption per
capita is 5 barrels ...
Oil Reserves: 1,650,585,140,000
Oil Consumption: 35,442,913,090
Reserves/Consumption: 47 <== years left i.e. 2016+47 == 2063
-- Worldometer
Israeli kids found wandering alone amid storms, extreme weather
The Jerusalem Post, 17 Feb 2024 16:27Z
Storms battered the whole country this weekend with nearly 90mm falling in
some areas in 24 hours.
20°C seems the optimal temperature for life on Earth to thrive: What this
means in a warming world
Phys.org, 17 Feb 2024 19:0Z
Have you ever wondered about the optimal temperature for life on Earth? For
humans, 20°C is comfortable. Any warmer and we work less efficiently because
releasing heat requires energy.
What REALLY happened during Roswell crash? America's most famous UFO case is
thrust back into the spotlight ...
Daily Mail Online, 17 Feb 2024 15:00Z
Three former NASA researchers have now independently challenged the Pentagon'
s 'Project Mogul' balloon theory of Roswell's UFO crash.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln moves west over northern Australia, as heavy
rainfall continues
ABC News, 17 Feb 2024 16:58Z
Heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast across parts of the
Northern Territory as ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln tracks further
inland, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
[Sooo Cooold!]
Feb on course to break unprecedented number of heat records
The Guardian, 17 Feb 2024 06:47Z
Carbon dioxide gas spotted in atmosphere of Jupiter's moon Callisto
New Scientist, 17 Feb 2024 02:18Z
Plastic industry deceived the public about recycling, report reveals
Euronews, 16 Feb 2024 16:34Z
[But plastic is still 100% recyclable, right?]
Trump legal news brief: Trump ordered to pay $355 mn, barred from
running New York businesses for fraudulently inflating net worth
Yahoo News, 16 Feb 2024 21:31Z
Melania, Ivanka Could Save Donald Trump's Businesses
Newsweek, 16 Feb 2024 21:31Z
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Medriva, 16 Feb 2024 11:56Z
Learn about the impact of extreme rainfall events on respiratory health and
the urgent need for proactive actions to safeguard public health.
Another Round of Atmospheric Rivers Are on the Way for California
NYT, 16 Feb 2024 16:55Z
Beginning Sat and lasting until the middle of next week, the state will
see back-to-back storms that could bring several inches of rain and feet of...
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AFR, 16 Feb 2024 17:53Z
Energy expert Tony Wood says Victoria's mass outage this week due to wild
weather means underground transmission lines are worth considering.
100 Years Ago, IBM Was Born
IEEE Spectrum, 13 Feb 2024
Eversource warns of `price shock' partially attributed to unpaid COVID-19 bills
WTNH.com, 16 Feb 2024 10:41Z
Montana Court Restricts Use of Groundwater for New Homes
NYT, 16 Feb 2024 16:39Z
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