On Tue, 13 Jun 2023 14:32:53 -0700, Alan says...
> That is no proof at all.
https://i.imgur.com/sJcC89l.mp4
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyY1IsNXsAMwN-H?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyY2TulWAAALZAe?format=jpg&name=large
5C) Despite CO2's greenhouse-warming potential, evidently the Sun (not CO2)
governed our climate for at least the last 2,000 years, based on good
correlation between solar-magnetic output (SMO) and Earth's average surface
temperature (Bullet 12), in contrast to CO2's non-correlation (Bullet 12B)
except the partial coincidence (by chance) of its strong rise since 1850 (start
of Industrial Revolution) versus "Modern Warming" (1815 to present-day; Bullet
11) and SMO's ~1700-1991 surge. This proves that CO2's greenhouse-warming
potential, already fallen logarithmically "well into the saturation regime", is
negated by feedbacks. Two natural feedbacks ignored in IPCC climate models are:
(i) little known cloud feedback; and (ii) "potentially very important"
increased biogenic "BVOC" aerosol due to faster forest growth by warming & CO2
fertilization. (The only feedbacks listed in IPCC's influential 2013 Fifth
Assessment Report figure SPM.5 are man-made ones, with very wide "uncertainty
intervals".) IPCC admits "aerosols and their interactions with clouds have
offset a substantial portion of global mean forcing from ... greenhouse gases.
They ... contribute the largest uncertainty"; and "quantification of cloud and
convective effects in models, and of aerosol-cloud interactions, continues to
be a challenge." IPCC's underestimation of negative feedbacks explains why
climate models run too hot (Bullet 6), and why "runaway" warming has apparently
never occurred on Earth.
6A) Computer "climate models" (by "climate scientists'; Bullet 3) are so full
of assumptions (stacked upon other assumptions) as to be highly misleading at
best, e.g. 1985-2015 warming forecast by 31 models turned out 2 to 4 times too
high. Even pro-IPCC "tricky Wiki" (Bullet 29) admitted: "Each model simulation
has a different guess at processes that scientist don't understand sufficiently
well".
6B) Climate models ignore three crucial factors: (i) natural cloud and aerosol-
cloud feedbacks (Bullet 5C); (ii) large changes in solar magnetic output (SMO;
Bullet 12A), driving global temperature changes according to the Svensmark
Theory, denied by the IPCC (Bullet 14), which disingenuously says "total solar
irradiance" (TSI; varies in step with SMO but proportionally far less) varies
much too little to affect climate, so CO2 must be in charge; likewise the CRU
(Bullet 2B); and NASA, which went so far as to publish "Atmospheric CO2:
Principal Control Knob Governing Earth's Temperature" in 2010; (iii) "ocean-
lag', the multi-decade delay between changes in SMO and correlative changes in
temperature (Bullet 21). These three IPCC failings, "Sun denial', ocean-lag
omission, and feedback underestimation, render climate modelling conducted to
date worthless.
7A) For much of the last 550 million years (Phanerozoic time), atmospheric CO2
was 2 to 10 times higher than now. Evolution flourished. Plant photosynthesis,
the basis of all life, was stimulated by higher CO2 (Bullet 8). Extinction
events due to overheating by CO2 are unknown.
7B) Throughout Phanerozoic time, CO2 seemingly correlated well with temperature
(although all studies inevitably have low resolution). This is readily
explained by warming oceans releasing CO2 and vice versa (Bullets 9, 10).
8A) Through Holocene time, atmospheric CO2 was a mere 250-285 ppm (i.e. near
plant-starvation level of ~150 ppm; Wiki "CO2 fertilization effect'; also
Bullet 27), until ~1850 when mankind's industrial CO2 emissions began. Since
then, atmospheric CO2 has climbed steeply. Proving that man's emissions are the
main driver of this post-1850 rise in CO2, ice cores show that the last five
interglacial periods (including the Holocene) all reached levels of 250-300
ppm, i.e. a sort of "equilibrium" value. CO2 today (January 2021), 415 ppm, is
still only 0.04% of our atmosphere (i.e. less than half of one-tenth of 1%),
far less than in the past (Bullet 7).
8B) The present CO2 level of 415ppm is far from hazardous to human health, e.g.
CO2 levels in American Navy submarines typically average 3,000-4,000ppm with no
reported ill effects. Benefits of rising CO2, thanks to the "CO2 fertilization
effect', include expansion of natural forests ('greening" of the planet) and
increased agricultural productivity, essential for feeding Earth's burgeoning
population. Thus, ironically, man's production of CO2 by burning fossil fuels
(for energy and transport) has unintentionally averted, or at least postponed,
a global food crisis. Commercial growers inject CO2 into their greenhouses.
"CO2 enrichment in greenhouses allows crops to meet there (sic) photosynthesis
potential." "For most crops the saturation point will be reached at about
1,000-1,300 ppm ... Increased CO2 levels will shorten the growing period (5%-
10%), improve crop quality and yield".
9) Until man began adding industrial CO2 about 1850, global warming (determined
from "proxies" like tree rings) since the ~1815 cold peak of the Little Ice Age
(~1250-1920) was accompanied by a very slight rise in CO2 (measured in ice
cores). A simple explanation is the well-known release of CO2 by warming ocean
water (decreasing its CO2-holding capacity).
10) Other evidence, besides Bullet 9, that rising CO2 is a consequence, not
cause, of global warming is that Quaternary glacial-interglacial temperature
changes were followed "very closely" by changes in CO2. Based on ice-core data,
the time-lag is somewhere between 400 years and zero, possibly even slightly
negative. However, based on direct thermometer and CO2 measurements covering
the last few decades, changes in CO2 lag behind ~5 months according to Kuo et
al. (1990) and 11-12 months according to Humlum et al. (2013).
11) Thermometer records since 1750 show 2.1C° warming (global land average)
since 1815 (Little Ice Age nadir; Bullet 9). This "Modern Warming" (name
proposed here) was interrupted by two 30-year coolings (1880-1910, 1945-1975,
0.2C° each) and the 1998-2013 "Global warming hiatus" (Wiki); and by frequent
brief (1-3 years) minor coolings, some attributable to mega-volcano "winters"
(1-10years) and perhaps to El Niño/La Niña events (seldom if ever exceed 2
years). After the first 30-year cooling, global average warming was 1.3C° from
1910 to 2016 (slight cooling since then [Bullet 13]). In contrast, since the
start of industrial CO2 additions ~1850 (Bullet 8), CO2's rise has accelerated,
with only a brief pause (1887-97) and a mini-reversal (1940-45), both during
the 30-year coolings, and both attributable to CO2's increasing solubility in a
cooling ocean (Bullet 9). The 30-year coolings match solar-output downturns,
after applying a temperature lag of ~100 years due to "ocean memory" (Bullet
21). There is no other viable explanation.
12A) This unsteady "sawtooth" (up-down) style of post-1815 "Modern Warming"
(Bullet 11) mimics the sawtooth rise in solar-magnetic output (SMO) from ~1700
(end of sunspot-defined "Maunder Minimum') to 1991 (peak of SMO Sun's modern
"Grand Maximum" [GM; 1937-2004]; NB sunspot peak was earlier, 1958). A good
cross-match is obtained by applying a temperature delay of ~100 years ('ocean-
lag'; Bullet 21), thereby aligning the two 30-year coolings (Bullet 11) with
two solar declines. SMO's ~1700-1991 surge was both the strongest (amplitude)
and highest in at least 9,000 years, increasing 350% from 1700 to 1950 and, in
the 20th Century alone, 131% from 1901 to 1991, and 41% from 1964 to 1996. "The
last period which showed similar high activity and also lasted as long as the
current one was about 1700 years ago" (Steinhilber et al. 2008). That
particular ~300AD GM caused warming (and drove a global 2-3m sea-level rise,
the "Romano-British Transgression', portending another such rise imminently
(Bullet 24). Thus I propose that the Sun drove Modern Warming (via the
Svensmark cosmic ray/cloud mechanism [Bullet 14]), with negligible or no help
from CO2, in the same way that earlier (lesser) GMs of the last 8,000 years
clearly correlate with (lesser) warmings (Bullet 12B).
12B) Similarly, since at least 2,000 years ago, solar-magnetic output (SMO)
correlates well with temperature (proxy temperatures from tree rings, ice
cores, etc. in the pre-thermometer era before 1750). Both graphs have a hockey-
stick shape (Bullet 32): the "shaft" is an overall ~1,200-year decline from ~
400AD to the Little Ice Age (LIA; Bullet 9), with superimposed 50-200-yr
smaller up-down "sawteeth'; the "blade" is the post-1700 surge (Bullet 12A).
Applying a temperature lag of ~100-150 years (Bullet 21) aligns: (i) the Sun's
~300AD GM (Bullet 12A) and the ~450AD highest temperature of the last 2,000
years (possibly surpassed by Modern Warming); and (ii) the ~1700 LIA solar
minimum and the 1815 LIA minimum temperature (Bullet 12A). Moreover, the graphs
have the same proportionality: ~3:2 ratio of surge height versus sawtooth
amplitude; and ~1:1 height ratio of the shaft and blade. In contrast, CO2's
correlation with temperature for the last 2,000 years is very poor: the only
(partial) match is CO2's surge since ~1850 (start of Industrial Revolution).
CO2 mismatches are: (i) slight overall rise from 500AD into the LIA (i.e.
"shaft" gradient is backwards); (ii) sawteeth are minuscule; and (iii) the two
30-year solar- and temperature declines (Bullet 12A) are missing. Further back
in time, despite decreasing proxy availability and looser dating, correlation
is also evident for at least the last 8,000 years, superimposed on long-term
slight cooling due to Earth's declining axial obliquity since ~8,500BP (google
Milankovitch orbital forcing).
13) 2016 was the warmest year "since records began', i.e. only since ~1850,
when a reliable global thermometer network existed. 2017, 2018 and 2019 were
all cooler. (NB no volcanic mega-eruption since 1991). Yet CO2 is still rising.
So every passing day that isn't "warmest ever recorded" for that date at
multiple sites worldwide is awkward for the IPCC.
14) The breathtakingly elegant and simple "Svensmark Theory" says rising solar-
magnetic output, by deflecting more cosmic rays, reduces cloudiness. This
allows more of the Sun's warmth to heat the ocean and hence the atmosphere
(Bullet 5A), instead of being reflected back out into space by clouds. In
support, a NASA study of satellite data spanning 1979-2011 (during the "Modern
Warming'; Bullet 12) showed decreasing cloud cover. The IPCC dismisses
Svensmark's theory.
15) Vocal climate scientist, computer modeller, IPCC lead author, and recipient
of a 1999 US$1 million private donation to work on his alarming idea that man-
made warming might stop "Atlantic conveyor belt" ocean circulation, with dire
consequences for regional climate (cooling), ecosystems and society, Stefan
Rahmstorf (Wiki) of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research wrongly
said in 2008: "there is no viable alternative ... [to CO2 as driver of 1940-
2005 warming, as] ... different authors agree that solar activity did not
significantly increase". Yet in 1999, physicist Dr Michael Lockwood FRS (Wiki)
and co-authors wrote in prestigious Nature journal that from 1964 to 1996 "the
total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4" and from 1901
to 1992 by 2.3! Supporting Lockwood's work, Steinhilber et al. (2010) showed
that "Since the year 1700, the open solar magnetic flux has increased by about
350%".
16) Lockwood (Bullet 15) showed that averaged solar magnetic flux increased
230% from 1901 to 1995, i.e. more than doubled. The ongoing (ocean-lagged)
warming that followed the 1945-75 cooling (Bullet 5) was driven by this solar
surge, via the Svensmark effect (Bullet 14), delayed by "ocean memory" (Bullet
21), which will ensure continued warming for several more decades. Bullets 17
and 18 also support Svensmark's theory.
17) After the ~300AD solar Grand Maximum (Bullet 12), between 350 and 450
global average temperature warmed to near today's value. Subsequent "sawtooth"
cooling mimicked the Sun's 1,000-year sawtooth decline into the Little Ice Age
(Bullet 9).
18) In the "Holocene Climatic Optimum" (Bullet 20) spanning 8,000 to 2,000BC,
Earth was warmer than now except for about five interludes of a few decades
each. Unsteady cooling from 3,000BC to the Little Ice Age (Bullet 9) paralleled
unsteady solar decline.
19) This 4,500-year-long cooling mocks IPCC computer models that instead
predict warming by the simultaneous (slow) rise in CO2. This is the "The
Holocene Temperature Conundrum" of Liu et al. (2014). See also Bullet 6.
20) Embarrassingly for the IPCC, the 8000-2000BC warm interval (Bullet 18) was
already called the "Holocene Climatic Optimum" (Wiki) before IPCC's "CO2 =
pollutant" fallacy induced today's AGW hysteria and pointless multi-trillion-
dollar climate-change industry. The warmth may have benefited development of
human civilisations.
21) For at least the last 1,700 years, sawtooth-style global warming/cooling
correlate well with solar-magnetic activity (Bullet 12) by applying an "ocean-
memory" lag of 60-160 years (varying with time), attributable to oceanic
thermal inertia (vast ocean volume, high heat capacity and slow
circulation/mixing; Bullet 6), causing delayed response to changes in solar-
magnetic flux, hence cloudiness, which governs global temperature (Bullet 14).
22) The IPCC says ongoing global warming despite solar weakening (since 1991;
Bullet 12) disqualifies the Sun as the cause of warming. This disingenuously
ignores the time-lag caused by oceanic thermal inertia, of which the IPCC is
well aware, and which brings the Sun's past "ups-and-downs" ('sawteeth') into
alignment with global temperature ups-and-downs (Bullet 12). Thus one of only
three pillars upon which the "Anthropogenic (man-made) Global Warming" dogma
stands is demolished. The other two, namely (i) simultaneous warming and
acceleration in CO2 since 1850 (a chance coincidence; Bullet 24), and (ii) the
30cm sea-level rise since 1850 supposedly unprecedented in 2,000 years (Bullet
26), are equally easy to dismiss.
23) The last interglacial period, ~120,000 years ago, was warmer than our
Holocene interglacial. Humans and polar bears survived! CO2 was then about 275
ppm, i.e. lower than now (Bullet 8), at a time of greater warmth!
24) The joint rise of temperature and CO2 is a "spurious correlation', mere
chance. Earth's temperature correlates much better with solar output, which
increased just as impressively in the 20th Century (Bullet 12). So IPCC's
demonising of CO2 as a "pollutant" is a colossal blunder, costing trillions of
dollars in needless and ineffectual efforts to reduce it. Instead, governments
need to focus urgently on the imminent metre-scale Sun-driven sea level rise.
25) Although the Sun is now declining since its 1991 magnetic peak (Bullet 12),
solar-driven global warming will continue until ~2050 due to "ocean-lag',
presently ~60 years (Bullet 21). Meanwhile rising CO2 will continue to raise
global food production (Bullet 8), without affecting climate (Bullet 5).
Cooling will begin ~2050 and last at least 28 years (i.e. post-1991 solar-
magnetic decline to date). Sadly our benign Holocene "interglacial" period will
eventually end, inevitably, by Milankovitch orbital forcing (Bullet 12), much
more powerful than solar changes.
26) IPCC says sea level (SL) from 0 to 1800AD varied < 25 centimetres (and < 1
metre since 4000BC) and never exceeded today's SL, therefore the 30-centimetre
SL rise measured since 1850 is abnormal, they say, blaming industrial CO2. But
this claim, based on flawed cherry-picked evidence, ignores dozens of studies
of geological and archaeological 3000BC-1000AD SL benchmarks globally, which
reveal 3 or 4 rises (and falls) of 1-3 metres in < 200 years each (i.e. > 5
millimetres/year), all reaching higher than today, long before industrial CO2.
27) If humans were to stop expanding fossil-fuel use and maintain current
levels, CO2 would soon stabilise at a new equilibrium value, nearer the optimum
for plants (Bullet 8). When fossil fuels eventually become too scarce to
produce economically, and we switch inevitably to nuclear energy, CO2 will
decrease.