Big turnout likely even with whites leading ballot
The black vote: For the first time since 2001, Cincinnati will not have a
serious black mayoral candidate running for office. Wil black voters show
up in strong numbers at the polls?
Gay Black Cincinnati Mayor Mark Mallory generated excitement among black
voters during the past two mayoral elections, and before him popular
television anchor Courtis Fuller played that role.
Even without a serious black candidate at the top of the ticket this
November, though, political experts and informed onlookers expect the
city’s black vote to show up strong and, ultimately, to decide the
election.
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“African-American votes are where this race will be won or lost,” said
Hamilton County Republican Party Chairman Alex Triantafilou.
As Cincinnati prepares for a mayoral primary Sept. 10 – early primary
voting will begin Tuesday – the candidates themselves don’t disagree on
the pivotal role of black voters, with top contenders John Cranley and
Roxanne Qualls working to earn support. Other candidates include
Libertarian Jim Berns and Sandra Queen Noble, who is African-American and
has run for president, Congress, mayor and city council; she finished last
among 22 candidates in the 2011 City Council race.
Qualls said that, even though the race lacks a formidable black mayoral
candidate, she doesn’t anticipate a drop-off in voting among
African-Americans because City Council members are being elected at the
same time.
Coming off a council session in which African-Americans held a racial
majority, a Cincinnati first, as many as a third of the council candidates
this year are black, with all five incumbents in the race.
“The black vote is not homogenous, but it does tend to be a significant
voting block,” Qualls said.
Cranley said he’s reaching out to the black community because the current
administration has failed it.
“The city is roughly 50-50 white and black, so it is essential that all of
our citizens feel ownership of their city,” said Cranley. (The 2010 census
found the city is actually 44.8 percent black, though it’s 50.7 percent
minority.)
The consensus issue among African-Americans, say community leaders ranging
from black-church ministers to social service agency heads, is the economy
– job creation, income disparity and unemployment.
Even as the national overall unemployment rate remained even from May to
June at 7.6, it ticked up from 13.5 to 13.7 percent nationally for
African-Americans. The economic gap is as wide or even wider in Greater
Cincinnati, where in the 15-county region in 2010 median household income
for blacks was $29,705 compared with $55,227 for whites.
“The top issue is economics,” said Jim Clingman, who is serving as interim
president of the 2,500-member Cincinnati NAACP branch because President
Christopher Smitherman is running for council re-election. National bylaws
prevent Smitherman from holding the office while campaigning.
Both candidates have plans for addressing employment.
Cranley’s would pay for job training for 600 people and create 379
full-time jobs.
Qualls’ plan, in part, proposes closer ties and programs incorporating the
African-American and Hispanic chambers of commerce.
Poverty cuts deep in many black communities. In Avondale, for example, an
estimated 49 percent of people 20-24 are unemployed, and throughout the
neighborhood 40 percent of the people do not have access to a vehicle,
compared to a citywide rate of 22 percent.
What past elections might foretell for this one
Cranley and Qualls ran against each other once before.
In 2007 – the only time Cranley and Qualls were together on a council
ballot – Cranley outperformed Qualls by more than 200 votes in Ward 7.
Covering much of Bond Hill and Roselawn, Ward 7 is widely considered the
African-American bellwether. Qualls, who will hold a campaign event
tonight in Bond Hill, at Allen Temple AME Church, had slight edges in 2007
in some other predominantly black wards: 3 (Evanston), 13 (Avondale/North
Avondale) and 14 (Kennedy Heights/Pleasant Ridge).
In 2009, when Qualls was a council candidate, she ended up getting more
votes than Mallory got in his head-to-head contest with Republican Brad
Wenstrup – 41,290 for Qualls, 36,444 for Mallory.
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In earning more votes than any of the 18 other council candidates in 2009,
Qualls did better in the African-American community than any of the black
candidates. In predominantly black precincts, she won 66 percent of the
vote, while taking 54 percent in predominantly white precincts. Cecil
Thomas, an African-American who resigned his council seat earlier this
year, took 64 percent in the mostly black precincts.
“The African-American community knows the power of its vote,” said Thomas,
managing the council campaign of his wife, Pamula Thomas. “The energy of
the Obama years, 2008 and 2012, is still there.”
But, said Laketa Cole, a former Cincinnati councilwoman and recording
secretary of the Bond Hill Community Council, “all politics is local, and
it is my hope we get out the vote for the primary.”
Black churches and social service agencies will make sure their
constituencies vote. At the Urban League of Greater Cincinnati, president
and CEO Donna Jones Baker said her agency will sponsor a candidates’
forum, issue position papers on issues such as job creation and encourage
registered voters to get to the polls.
“The black community sees that things are getting better, but we’re being
left behind economically,” Baker said.
The pulpit is power in black neighborhoods. As pastor of 1,900-member
Corinthian Baptist Church in Avondale, the Rev. K.Z. Smith will encourage
churchgoers to be informed voters. And he said he is encouraged that
Cranley and Qualls both appear sincere in their interest in the well-being
of Cincinnati’s black citizens and commitment to redevelop neighborhoods.
Smith is concerned about what happens to returning citizens, the people
released from Ohio prisons who come home to Cincinnati neighborhoods. Each
year, 2,100 ex-offenders are released from Ohio prisons return home to
Hamilton County alone. The county also has 5,000 felony probationers,
criminals convicted of serious crimes but sentenced to probation instead
of prison; 202 live in the 45229 area code, which covers most of Avondale.
Mayor Mallory's word carries 'significant weight'
The two biggest issues: privatizing parking and building a streetcar.
Qualls supports both; Cranley has built his campaign around opposing them.
“I do think John Cranley will be very attractive to African-American
voters because they share his views on those issues,” Republican leader
Triantafilou said.
It’s been a dozen years since the top of the city ticket has been without
a black candidate.
And, of course, Mallory defeated his white opponents in the last two
elections.
“There’s no question that support from African-American community pushed
Mark Mallory over the top,” said Hamilton County Democratic Party Chairman
Tim Burke.
Burke sees both candidates courting the black vote. And both have support
from prominent local black leaders.
Council members Charlie Winburn and Smitherman support Cranley, as does
former mayor and councilman Dwight Tillery. But Qualls has Mallory and
Councilman Wendell Young’s votes.
“I think the mayor’s word continues to carry significant weight,” Burke
said.
Gene Beaupre, a Xavier University political science professor, put a
geographic analysis on his reasoning that African-American voters could
decide who the next mayor is.
“If you were simplifying the race, you would give more votes on the West
Side to John and more to Roxanne on the East Side,” Beaupre said. “So it
could easily come down to black voters.”
He anticipates both candidates will be out in the African-American
community, “running a door-to-door, church-to-church,
barber-shop-to-barber-shop campaign.”
“They have to establish themselves on a personal level and motivate these
voters,” Beaupre said. “Black voters are not going to care about
commercials, they will care about candidates they have a relationship
with.” ?
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