Opinion | We'll Have Herd Immunity by April

[Chaim Witz]

wsj.com
Opinion | We'll Have Herd Immunity by April
Marty Makary

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely
ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication
slashed cases by 77%, we'd call it a miracle pill. Why is the number
of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far
more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been
capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during
the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case
capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed
cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans
have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food
and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will
have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low
level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom
have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be
infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly
gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

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Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity.
Antibody testing doesn't capture antigen-specific T-cells, which
develop "memory" once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of
the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008--90 years later--to have
memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Researchers at Sweden's Karolinska Institute found that the percentage
of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic
Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with
detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who
were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms.
A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical
community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from
activated T-cells.

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity
than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which
translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19
infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that
roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they
too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don't have data.
The data certainly doesn't fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial
model of the old-guard medical establishment. There's no control
group. But the observational data is compelling.

I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if
those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all
vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate
that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more
vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told
me: Good idea. The other half said there isn't enough data on natural
immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less
than 1% of people--and when they do occur, the cases are mild.

But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can
be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn't suddenly
improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than
they had since March. Vaccines also don't explain the steep decline in
January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on
laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and
conversations with experts. But it's also based on direct observation
of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you
live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about
getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by
testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for
low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have
been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections
are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.

Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to
talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because
some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity.
That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result
of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission
has been broken in multiple places, it's harder for it to spread--and
that includes the new strains.

Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of
Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of
prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing
of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to
evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged,
such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant
declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around
the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that
Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It
should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and
administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there
may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk
publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent
and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But
scientists shouldn't try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth.
As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen
schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged
isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can
deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large
personal sacrifices.

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and
Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame
Care, and author of "The Price We Pay."

--
And I'm burnin', I'm burnin', I'm burnin' for you
I'm burnin', I'm burnin', I'm burnin' for you

[Omni Vore]

On 2/19/2021 9:50 AM, Chaim Witz wrote:

> wsj.com
> Opinion | We'll Have Herd Immunity by April
> Marty Makary

No, we didn't. And we won't. The USA has far too many
Trumpoid anti-vax idiots to make herd immunity a reality.

Fuck off.

[Miguel Tomar Nogueira]

Did flu vaccines made herd immunity to flu "a reality"?

> Fuck off.

No you.