Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss
GRRM on Colbert 10/26/22
14 views
Skip to first unread message
Platypus
Nov 3, 2022, 10:20:53 PM11/3/22
to
COLBERT: Legally, legally, I have to ask you how things are going with the Winds of Winter [...].
GRRM: [Laughs] I am making progress with the Winds of Winter, but it is still not done yet, but I have ....
COLBERT: How much are we talking about? How ... farther ...?
GRRM: Well I think it's going to be a very big book. The biggest books so far were the third volume, Storm of Swords, and the 5th volume, Dance with Dragons -- those were about 1500 pages in manuscript. This one's going to be bigger than either of that, and I think I'm about three quarters of the way done. I'm done with some of the characters -- the characters all interweave - so I've actually finished with a couple of the characters -- I've got their whole story, but not others. So I've got to finish all that weaving and it's still going to take me a while.
COLBERT: So 10 years to go 75% of the way through, means that, about ....
GRRM: That's depressing -- that's depressing.
COLBERT: Okay, alright, so 3 more years.
GRRM: [Laughs] I am making progress with the Winds of Winter, but it is still not done yet, but I have ....
COLBERT: How much are we talking about? How ... farther ...?
GRRM: Well I think it's going to be a very big book. The biggest books so far were the third volume, Storm of Swords, and the 5th volume, Dance with Dragons -- those were about 1500 pages in manuscript. This one's going to be bigger than either of that, and I think I'm about three quarters of the way done. I'm done with some of the characters -- the characters all interweave - so I've actually finished with a couple of the characters -- I've got their whole story, but not others. So I've got to finish all that weaving and it's still going to take me a while.
COLBERT: So 10 years to go 75% of the way through, means that, about ....
GRRM: That's depressing -- that's depressing.
COLBERT: Okay, alright, so 3 more years.
Platypus
Nov 3, 2022, 11:20:23 PM11/3/22
to
GRRM made similar remarks at about the same time, at a Penguin Book Club event, maybe 2 days later (not sure), in an event where he answers fan questions. This was the last fan question:
GRRM: [reads fan question] "Do you have an update on the Winds of Winter?" It's the same update I've been giving for a long time. I continue to work on it. It continues to get longer and longer. I was working on it the day before I flew back here for 3 or 4 days. But I was rereading some chapters that I'd written earlier and I did not like them well enough, and so I kind of ripped them apart and rewrote them and I had some ideas while I was on this trip. I've got to get back and hopefully get to it while the ideas are still fresh in my head. It's big, big, book -- I've said that before. It's a challenging book. It's probably going to be a larger book than any of the previous volumes of the series. Dance with Dragons and Storm of Swords are the two largest books in the series -- they were both around 1500 manuscript pages. I think this one is going to be even longer than that by the time I finish it; and I think I'm three quarters of the way done, maybe. But that's not 100% done. So I have to continue to work on it. And of course there's the issue of my friends at Random House when I deliver this monstrous book that's going to be as big as this dragon [there is a model dragon on his desk, which is roughly tall enough to reach GRRM's nose]. Are they going to make me cut it in two, or are they going to do something else horrible to me? Aaaah! [laughs] Nooo!
[he keeps going without saying much, except "I'm creeping forward"].
GRRM: [reads fan question] "Do you have an update on the Winds of Winter?" It's the same update I've been giving for a long time. I continue to work on it. It continues to get longer and longer. I was working on it the day before I flew back here for 3 or 4 days. But I was rereading some chapters that I'd written earlier and I did not like them well enough, and so I kind of ripped them apart and rewrote them and I had some ideas while I was on this trip. I've got to get back and hopefully get to it while the ideas are still fresh in my head. It's big, big, book -- I've said that before. It's a challenging book. It's probably going to be a larger book than any of the previous volumes of the series. Dance with Dragons and Storm of Swords are the two largest books in the series -- they were both around 1500 manuscript pages. I think this one is going to be even longer than that by the time I finish it; and I think I'm three quarters of the way done, maybe. But that's not 100% done. So I have to continue to work on it. And of course there's the issue of my friends at Random House when I deliver this monstrous book that's going to be as big as this dragon [there is a model dragon on his desk, which is roughly tall enough to reach GRRM's nose]. Are they going to make me cut it in two, or are they going to do something else horrible to me? Aaaah! [laughs] Nooo!
[he keeps going without saying much, except "I'm creeping forward"].
Platypus
Nov 5, 2022, 12:51:31 AM11/5/22
to
OPTIMISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE FOREGOING
George says that it will be longer than Dance. Dance, not counting the 200 odd pages of material bumped to Winds, came in at around 1590 manuscript pages, before 80 pages of tightening condensed it to 1510 manuscript pages. If GRRM expects it to be longer than Dance, he must expect around 1600 pages before editing, which means he has at least 1200 manuscript pages now. And if he expects it to be longer than Storm, add another 30 or 40 pages to make 1640, 3/4th of which is 1230.
This might mean he started with 200 pages from Dance, has written 1030 pages since then, and has about 410 pages to go. If it took 11 years and 3 months to write 1030 pages, then that suggests between 7 and 8 pages per month, which I optimistically round up to 8 pages. Which means it will take him 51 months, or 4 years and 3 months, to finish the series.
But wait! He tends to pick up steam as he gets closer to completion. Dance took GRRM 5 years and 9 months to write, and he wrote about 1790 manuscript pages for it (around 200 of which were bumped to Dance), 75% of which is 1342. From his NAB post "Talking about the Dance", he seems to have crossed this mark in July 2010 (if we include about 100 pages already bumped to Dance at that point). We also must consider that Dance started with 400 pages bumped from Feast. So he took 57 months to make 940 pages worth of progress, and another 12 months to make another 450 pages worth of progress. That is a 227% increase in productivity after the 3/4 mark.
A similar boost of productivity in Winds will result in him doing 17.25 pages per month, which allows completion in just under two years. Which means we could see Winds by Christmas, 2025.
Do I believe this? Sadly no. I may post a more pessimistic assessment in a future post. Or maybe I'll just give up on GRRM.
George says that it will be longer than Dance. Dance, not counting the 200 odd pages of material bumped to Winds, came in at around 1590 manuscript pages, before 80 pages of tightening condensed it to 1510 manuscript pages. If GRRM expects it to be longer than Dance, he must expect around 1600 pages before editing, which means he has at least 1200 manuscript pages now. And if he expects it to be longer than Storm, add another 30 or 40 pages to make 1640, 3/4th of which is 1230.
This might mean he started with 200 pages from Dance, has written 1030 pages since then, and has about 410 pages to go. If it took 11 years and 3 months to write 1030 pages, then that suggests between 7 and 8 pages per month, which I optimistically round up to 8 pages. Which means it will take him 51 months, or 4 years and 3 months, to finish the series.
But wait! He tends to pick up steam as he gets closer to completion. Dance took GRRM 5 years and 9 months to write, and he wrote about 1790 manuscript pages for it (around 200 of which were bumped to Dance), 75% of which is 1342. From his NAB post "Talking about the Dance", he seems to have crossed this mark in July 2010 (if we include about 100 pages already bumped to Dance at that point). We also must consider that Dance started with 400 pages bumped from Feast. So he took 57 months to make 940 pages worth of progress, and another 12 months to make another 450 pages worth of progress. That is a 227% increase in productivity after the 3/4 mark.
A similar boost of productivity in Winds will result in him doing 17.25 pages per month, which allows completion in just under two years. Which means we could see Winds by Christmas, 2025.
Do I believe this? Sadly no. I may post a more pessimistic assessment in a future post. Or maybe I'll just give up on GRRM.
0 new messages