GRRM's Latest Quasi-Update & Oldtown

[Platypus]

GRRM made some happy progress noises in June/July and we had not heard much since. I always say that no news is bad news when it comes to GRRM, and it seems I was right. On Nov. 8, he made a "Back to Westeros" not-a-blog post, which suggests he has made minimal progress since July, though on a positive note, he claims he is once again building up steam.

Other than that, there is not much new information in his latest quasi-update. The part that caught my eye is where he says "I have dropped into Oldtown a time or three". Which raises the question: what is going on in Oldtown that GRRM needs to pay visits there?

One obvious answer for most fans would be: "He is writing Samwell POV chapters!" However, this might tend to shoot down one of my pet theories, that Samwell got offed by a faceless man at the end of FEAST, and will have no further POV chapters (though we might eventually run into someone we think is Sam, from another POV).

A slightly less obvious answer might be that we will be seeing Oldtown from Aeron Greyjoy's POV, while tied to the prow of Euron Greyjoy's ship THE SILENCE. A lot of fans seem to expect to see Euron attack Oldtown. But, prior to today, I would have said that this idea too was mistaken -- that Euron has no real interest in Oldtown and is in fact on his way to join the fun in Meereen.

So should I take this as an indication that I am mistaken on at least one of my pet theories? Or will Euron pop into Oldtown on his way to Meereen? Or is there a third possibility I am not considering? Could Dany visit Oldtown?

In other news he says he has been "spending alot of time with the Lannisters, Cersei and Tyrion in particular.". Who else is left that he has in mind here? Myrcella? Rosamund? Lancel?

He also says he has paid a visit to Dorne. Which might mean a Hotah POV chapter, since everyone else we knew who was in Dorne ought to have left by now.

On the other hand, if GRRM has made more progress than I suspect, then any character might be anywhere by now.

[Butterbumps@Home]

sunnuntai 15. marraskuuta 2020 klo 20.28.55 UTC+2 Platypus kirjoitti:

> GRRM made some happy progress noises in June/July and we had not heard much since. I
> always say that no news is bad news when it comes to GRRM, and it seems I was right. On
> Nov. 8, he made a "Back to Westeros" not-a-blog post, which suggests he has made minimal
> progress since July, though on a positive note, he claims he is once again building up steam.

Dang it all. Well, baby steps I guess.

> Other than that, there is not much new information in his latest quasi-update. The part
> that caught my eye is where he says "I have dropped into Oldtown a time or three".
> Which raises the question: what is going on in Oldtown that GRRM needs to pay visits
> there?
>
> One obvious answer for most fans would be: "He is writing Samwell POV chapters!"
> However, this might tend to shoot down one of my pet theories, that Samwell got
> offed by a faceless man at the end of FEAST, and will have no further POV chapters
> (though we might eventually run into someone we think is Sam, from another POV).

Huh. That never occurred to me and I don't remember anything like this? There was Pate, right, who was a faceless man? Why kill Sam and what evidence is there? I'd like there to be enough evidence to say we saw it happen on the page, because Sam's death "off-screen" would be pretty shabby.

I also recall something about there being a new Varys-planted Targaryen heir, wasn't that in Oldtown? It's also the source of knowledge for dealing with the Others and stuff, so there's likely to be some Oldtown / Citadel stuff.

I still hold out hopes of Sam making his chain although it would take way too long to be worth doing in the story. Some "twenty years later" epilogue would do it.

> A slightly less obvious answer might be that we will be seeing Oldtown from
> Aeron Greyjoy's POV, while tied to the prow of Euron Greyjoy's ship THE SILENCE.

Ooh, that would be fun. Euron's weird adventures and story is interesting to me, he was ruined somewhat in the TV series but there's a lot of potential there.

> A lot of fans seem to expect to see Euron attack Oldtown. But, prior to today, I would
> have said that this idea too was mistaken -- that Euron has no real interest in
> Oldtown and is in fact on his way to join the fun in Meereen.

Hmm. Euron always struck me as quite knowledgeable in the arcane and otherwise lost knowledge, something might convince him Oldtown is worth taking, since he can?

> So should I take this as an indication that I am mistaken on at least one
> of my pet theories? Or will Euron pop into Oldtown on his way to Meereen?
> Or is there a third possibility I am not considering? Could Dany visit
> Oldtown?

Maybe.

> In other news he says he has been "spending alot of time with the Lannisters,
> Cersei and Tyrion in particular.". Who else is left that he has in mind here?
> Myrcella? Rosamund? Lancel?

Didn't Myrcella die? Or was she just scarred in the books? I don't recall. I think it was that.

> He also says he has paid a visit to Dorne. Which might mean a Hotah POV
> chapter, since everyone else we knew who was in Dorne ought to have left
> by now.

*nod*

> On the other hand, if GRRM has made more progress than I suspect, then
> any character might be anywhere by now.

Also true.




B@w
--
https://hatboy.blog/

[Platypus]

On Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 5:02:31 AM UTC-5, Butterbumps wrote:
> Huh. That never occurred to me and I don't remember anything like this? There
> was Pate, right, who was a faceless man? Why kill Sam and what evidence is there?

Aemon wanted Sam to talk to the Maesters about certain things, and Marwin wants Sam to remain silent about those things. Marwin can of course just tell Sam not to talk to the Maesters (and did so) but there is only one sure way to seal his lips forever. Also, Marwin (and Alleras) have completely pumped Sam for information -- Sam supposedly told them EVERYTHING (except that he was a coward, foreshadowing a flaw in the faceless man's impersonation of "Sam the Slayer") so they now have no further use for him. Another reason for killing him is that they are an evil cabal of blood mages and assassins, and Sam has just delivered them Aemon's ancient volume of dragon lore, Mance's kingsblood baby, and Aemon's preserved kingsblood corpse, and some kind of ancient (magic?) horn. Ironic, since Jon sent Sam south precisely to keep such things out of such evil hands. If they take these things from Sam (as they surely intend to do -- in fact Marwin was headed straight for the Cinnamon Wind just as the chapter ended), then they must eliminate him to prevent him from complaining about the theft. At the very least, once Sam realizes he has been robbed, he will stop trusting Marwin, and talk to the Maesters as Aemon instructed. Can you not see the sinister implications of Marwin asking a pair of assassins to put Sam to bed in an deserted tower overlooking a river, with only ravens for witnesses? No-one even knows that Sam arrived at the citadel. Alleras (who perhaps has contacts on the Cinnamon Wind) intercepted him before he could even report in.

Marwin obviously knows Pate is other than he seems. Else, Marwin would not have allowed Pate the novice to sit in while Sam spills his guts about matters Marwin does not want the rest of the Citadel to know about.

Then there is the vision of a man without a face (the Alchemist?) standing on a rickety bridge (the bridge to the Isle of Ravens?) wearing a drowned crow (that is, wearing the face of Sam the Crow, who has been drowned?).

And of course, Pate the Pig Boy (a minor character who hardly matters much) can be seen as foreshadowing. If the Alchemist can impersonate Pate; then body type is probably not much of an obstacle too him. Samwell is the next logical step.

At any rate, as I see it, FEAST ends on a cliffhanger, when the novice tells Sam he is "Pate, like the Pig Boy", and we realize that the fellow assigned to put Sam "to bed" (in a secluded spot) is in fact a deadly assassin. I am amazed how many readers fail to realize that Sam might be in any danger whatsoever.

> I'd like there to be enough evidence to say we saw it happen on the page, because
> Sam's death "off-screen" would be pretty shabby.

Ah, but you are denying GRRM his right to be tricksy, and have the faceless man appear to other characters, but have all the characters (and the reader) think that the faceless man is actually Sam. Surely you anticipated, when GRRM introduced the faceless men, that GRRM intended to play tricks with significant characters. If not Sam, then who? And Sam isn't even one of the main 6 (Arya, Sansa, Tyrion, Dany, Jon, Bran).

> I also recall something about there being a new Varys-planted Targaryen heir, wasn't
> that in Oldtown?

Sam's chapter and Pate's prologue chapters are the only Oldtown chapters we have, and they do not mention Varys. Of course, Young Griff (Aegon VI) is plausibly a "Varys-planted Targaryen heir" based on what we know.

> It's also the source of knowledge for dealing with the Others and stuff, so there's
> likely to be some Oldtown / Citadel stuff.

Maybe. But I know of no plot-logic suggesting that GRRM needs information from Oldtown to help our heroes fight the Others. Any information our heroes need GRRM can provide from any plausible source at the appropriate time. Castle Black even has its own ancient library, which nobody reads. Fans have seized on this idea as the plot purpose of Sam's journey to Oldtown. But what if the real plot purpose of the trip is to deliver all these arcane goodies into the hands of an evil blood mage?

> Hmm. Euron always struck me as quite knowledgeable in the arcane and otherwise
> lost knowledge, something might convince him Oldtown is worth taking, since he can?

Sure. Euron is interested in the mystical power of blood magic too. He collects priests, supposedly because of the mystical power of their blood. And ties Falia Flowers to the prow of his ship while she is pregnant with his own baby, sired after he was a king. So I guess he understands the mystical power of "kings blood" too.

[Platypus]

On Tuesday, November 17, 2020 at 5:02:31 AM UTC-5, Butterbumps wrote:

> Didn't Myrcella die? Or was she just scarred in the books? I don't recall. I think it
> was that.

Myrcella is (as far as the readers know) still alive in the books. Of course, another of my pet theories is that she is dead, and that the Myrcella we still hear of is her decoy double Rosamund, who is being employed by Doran to hold off suspicion until he is ready to strike.

Darkstar was seen applying some kind of oil to his blade (maybe just to sharpen it, but maybe not) before his attack on Myrcella. Perhaps his blade was poisoned. Certainly poison would help explain why a man regarded by the Red Viper as "the most dangerous man in Dorne" was so incompetent that he failed to kill one little girl, and then left with the job apparently still undone.