On Monday, July 27, 2020 at 9:07:01 AM UTC-4, Butterbumps@Home wrote:
> keskiviikko 20. toukokuuta 2020 23.58.43 UTC+3 Platypus kirjoitti:
> > Well sure. Even Western countries, with semi-free presses, may be
> > underestimating their numbers to a greater or lesser extent. >
> Seems hard to imagine they're *not*. Unless you test 100% of the population, the actual confirmed cases are certain to be higher than the ones counted, right?
Hence, I said "under-estimating" not "under-reporting". And just because no data is ever perfect, it does not follow that there is no difference between honesty and dishonesty.
And even when there is dishonesty, there is a difference between what a western liberal democracy can get away with, and what an oppressive authoritarian regime can get away with.
Even among liberal democracies, there is likely a difference in what a single centralized government can get away with and what a decentralized federation of 50 states can get away with. And no nation on the planet has stronger free speech traditions and safeguards than the United States.
This would be especially true in that particular age of the world when an enormous chunk of the media establishment, corporate establishment, and Washington establishment is united in its desire to bring down a sitting President.
> > It is possible that the UK's numbers are not precisely comparable to
> > Sweden's numbers. But there can be no comparison between these countries
> > and authoritarian dictatorships that maintain strict control of
> > information, such as Iran or China.
>
> Seems like all the totalitarian states run by right-wing strongman governments (or wannabe strongman in the case of the US) are tanking this thing. But like you say, the difference is in the information that's getting out.
Why single out "right wing"? Seems to me this applies to all strongman governments. Such as China.
Also I don't think the USA is hard-hit compared to China. Nor even compared to Sweden.
New York State is hard-hit even compared to US generally, and New York City (where I work) even worse. I've extensively visited a relative in a hospital here during the crisis. And I'm glad I live here and not in China.
> > > I have an instinctive reaction to accusations like this, mostly because
> > > they're misused for the purposes of anti-Chinese bigotry.
> >
> > There is no natural instinct that compels people to call each other bigots
> > merely because they do not trust the dictatorial regimes of powerful
> > foreign nations. You did not get this from your instincts.
>
> I didn't say "natural".
I believe you said "instinctive". I don't think it's a natural instinct, that's all I'm saying.
> Call it a knee-jerk reaction if you like.
Fair enough.
> I have no problem with criticising totalitarian regimes.
That's great!
> I do have a problem with this sort of criticism - not from you, but from a lot of sources, because it's clearly nothing to do with criticising a cruel and brutal government, and everything to do with painting a place and its people as being "to blame" - and that reflects back not on the brutal government, but on the innocent civilians who happen to be from that country.
I'm confused. If this has nothing to do with me, then why are you even bringing it up? I agree that it has nothing to do with me.
> I accept, and repeat, that it's not you.
That's great! But somehow I suspect that there is still an issue.
> But this sort of talk can also be used to serve agendas I am *strongly* opposed to.
Which has nothing to do with me. Right?
> So I do need to be really clear on the place you're coming from, ideologically.
You just said you were really clear. What are you saying now?
If I'm not saying anything you disagree with, then wait until I say something I disagree with until you make an issue out of it. Why does that not work?
> I wish all places of discourse could communicate in the same way.
In what way? I'm confused.
> > The first time it occurred to me that the WHO was kissing China's ass (or,
> > if you prefer, being diplomatic) was when (and this is a loose paraphrase
> > from memory) they said, in effect, that they were not worried about the
> > effect of the Wuhan outbreak on China because China had the situation
> > under control, but there was only cause for concern because of its
> > potential effect on less developed nations.
>
> At the time, this may well have been true. The WHO is hindered by the necessity of adhering to the facts as they know them, and based on previous pandemic situations this was how things looked.
Even I knew "at the time" that the WHO was talking nonsense. I'm sure the WHO knew more and better than I did. They not only had all the information I did, they had far more.
This was confirmed by the AP article I linked you to. It is not that they did not know better, but that they were moderating their public statements to what China wanted to hear, for the (arguably) benevolent motive of obtaining China's limited cooperation in fighting the epidemic.
> All in all though, there was way too much of this politically-motivated muzzling of information, and it severely undermined the WHO at a critical time.
There is still too much of this muzzling of information, much of it directly or indirectly at the instance of China. When China gets the WHO to appease them by taking positions favored by President Xi, and condemn positions opposed by President Xi, the next stage is an extensive propaganda effort to get online news organizations and companies to censor things President Xi does not like, on the pretext that anything not endorsed by the Holy Infallible WHO is a "conspiracy theory." Youtube is another company whose president has declared that they will censor information not endorsed by the WHO.
Elio Garcia is, wittingly or unwittingly, a tool in this process. One guess is he is actively censoring his website to ensure that it does not get blocked in China, and to ensure that Westeros.org has access to Chinese markets. But this could be wrong, and he could have other motives that I do not fully understand. He might even believe the nonsense he says.
> > Then there were the times they praised China for its "transparency",
> > virtually in the middle of its massive coverups, massive censorship,
> > punishment of whistleblowers, exclusion of independent outside observers,
> > and arrests of citizen journalists.
>
> Yeah, that's some bullshit.
Indeed it is.
> I'd still be inclined to continue listening to the WHO, though. Rather than withdraw from the organisation. I'm glad I live in a country that still does.
The question at the time was not whether any country should withdraw from the WHO but whether people should be allowed to criticize that organization. Any organization that cannot be criticized is an organization that cannot be trusted.
Powers of censorship are always abused, and they are always abused for political ends. For instance, I hate quack medicine; until the government starts censoring the quacks, and not even permitting them to talk. Then I get suspicious. Yeah it might START with the quacks, but it NEVER stops with them, once the precedent is set.
> > But not to any measures that China itself opposes, like restrictions on
> > travel OUT OF China to other countries. China opposed this, so the WHO
> > opposed it too. Can you name one situation where the WHO's response did
> > not follow the (shifting) line of the Chinese Communist Party?
>
> I don't remember the WHO saying international travel was fine.
That's okay. I remember them saying it.
> Certainly not once lockdowns went into effect.
You're talking about the China lockdowns, right? The answer is yes, certainly so. After China instituted draconian lockdowns WITHIN China, China continued to argue that Chinese citizens should be free to fly to other countries, and the WHO supported the Chinese position (while having nothing but praise for China's internal measures, which would presumably include their internal travel restrictions).
> > China downplayed the disease, so the WHO downplayed the disease too. The
> > WHO did not declare it a pandemic until this was obvious to everyone
> > already.
>
> That's kind of when it makes sense to do so? They're not going to cause a panic by making shit up. I find it hard to fault their caution here, although admittedly a bit more hysteria may have been useful in hindsight.
That's nonsense. The WHO changed or abandoned its previous definition of "pandemic" just so they would not have to declare this a "pandemic".
> > How about how the WHO refuses to list Taiwan as a separate entity in its
> > coronavirus statistics, for the obvious purpose of appeasing China.
>
> Can't really comment on that. That feels like a greater-good pill the WHO have to swallow (like so many other groups do, and I know you don't like that argument but I'm not using it as a justification) in order to get the most traction for their work. I wish it wasn't the case.
We can debate the pros and cons of appeasement all you like. If you want to argue that the WHO was buttering China's ass for the Greater Good, be my guest. I might roll my eyes a little bit, but never mind. That was not the issue.
The issue was whether we must swallow, hook, line and sinker, the things that the WHO says to butter China's ass. Elio's position is yes, we must. And anyone who disagrees with what the WHO says (including the things the WHO says to appease President Xi) must be censored as a "conspiracy theorist".
Then the lies of the WHO get used as a justification for censoring anyone who disagrees with the lies. Does not that alter the cost-benefit equation a bit? Would it not be better if we all accept that the WHO, however useful it might be, is a political organization, and that citizens of the World and each nation within it should have both the right and the duty to take it's pronouncements with a grain of salt?
I'm not an anarchist. I believe we need government. Perhaps (but I'm honestly a bit less sure of this) we need world government. Perhaps we even need the WHO. But citizens should still have the right to distrust their governments, including their world governments and its various departments like the WHO.
Any governmental body that one is not allowed to criticize is exactly the governmental body that cannot be trusted.
> > And the icing on the cake was the video where a Hong Kong reporter tried
> > to interview Dr. Bruce Aylward and tried to ask him about Taiwan. This
> > so-obviously showed Dr. Bruce to be in China's ideological pocket that the
> > WHO removed Dr. Bruce's name from their website to protect against the
> > damage to their image.
> >
> > If you care, watch the video and tell me if you still trust Dr. Bruce as
> > an uncompromised and unbiased source of coronavirus information. This
> > link currently works, and it's only a minute long, so it won't take much
> > of your time. And this is the same man whose endorsement of the Chinese
> > coronavirus statistics allegedly proved they were accurate, according to
> > Elio. This is the same man who you have to trust, according to Elio,
> > otherwise you are a "conspiracy theorist", who deserves to be banned:
> >
> >
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fASh2_RzMuE
>
> Yeah, that's shonky alright.
Yup!
> > Elio believed the Chinese numbers were accurate, I believed they were
> > vastly inaccurate, and that Chinese authorities was underselling the
> > threat of the virus for political reasons.
>
> Just as well we all learned our lesson from this.
Who is "we"? And what did "we" learn?
> > It was not about bashing China, it was about whether something really bad
> > was coming our way, which we ought to prepare for.
>
> Sure, absolutely. It was a fuck-up of disastrous proportions. I believe that it wasn't about bashing China for you, that's very clear. It should have been clear to Elio as well. Sadly he decided to not-ban you instead of having a conversation.
I suspect he'll do the same thing the next time anyone tries to start a discussion in the international thread about topics disfavored by Predident Xi and the Chinese Censors.
> I can sort of understand the damage-control aspect of limiting that kind of talk, when it comes to the bottom line of what this is going to mean socially and interpersonally. It's too dangerous a weapon to let it go unchecked, considering the idiots out there and the panic that's still going on.
I don't understand what you are trying to say.
> But "unchecked" doesn't need to mean "censored".
I think you meant to say "But 'checked' doesn't need to mean 'censored'". Maybe not, but it is unclear what distinction you have in mind.
> > Elio cited the WHO's praise of China, after their little guided tour, as
> > proof that the Chinese numbers were accurate. I said the WHO had been
> > kissing China's ass, and he not-a-banned me.
>
> *shrug*
>
> I think there are better ways to talk about it.
What exactly do you mean? Are you suggesting I should have known better than to use colorful language like "kissing ass" on a family-friendly forum devoted to the G-rated works of GRRM?
If not, then what are you talking about?
> And I think you have too much history on
westeros.org for either side of the conversation there to operate in good faith. Just the impression I've gotten.
In what way was I not operating in good faith? And how did you get the impression that I was not operating in good faith? And how is our "history" relevant?
Elio knew nothing of my "history", whatever it was. We had one prior encounter under my present nym where he forbade me from discussing another topic forbidden by President Xi. I obediently followed his command, and dropped the topic.
I doubt he could read my mind, and intuitively understand my "bad faith" and general unworthiness. And with all due respect, I rather doubt that you can do that either. I'm inclined therefore, to think he banned me for the things I said.
> So how bad do you think it is in China right now? As bad as the US (per million)?
I think it is many times worse, both in terms of COVID deaths per million, and in terms of increased mortality (from all causes) as a result of disruptions ultimately related to the epidemic and the government's draconian countermeasures.
I also tend to suspect (though I have not looked too much into this yet) that the US figures are not comparable to those of other Western nations with more centralized governments. The US government is very decentralized. Each individual state is competing for federal funds, aid, and resources to help them fight the epidemic; and even where there might be some political motive to downplay the epidemic this will in the long run be more-than counteracted by other considerations. I could be wrong about this, but I would have to be convinced.
> We're doing okay over here, but we have another huge data shadow on our eastern border.
"Here" being Finland? I really don't know the details about Finland, or how their official figures are computed. Just going by the raw death rate, they are doing pretty well, but maybe not quite as well as Hawaii, Alaska, Wyoming, or Montana. Not that that is necessarily a fair comparison or anything.
> > Scapegoating has always been a tried and true propaganda ploy in the
> > arsenal of dictatorial regimes.
>
> Which is exactly what I was trying to head off for the sake of my Chinese friends.It wasn't aimed specifically at you, so much as at the idea - it was a weird reversal of ad hominem. Which, you know, shouldn't be weird but we are what we are I guess.
Sorry, but I really don't see what your Chinese friends have to do with it.
I don't have a lot of friends. But it just so happens that I have a friend for 30+ years who happens to be Chinese. And you should hear some of the things he says about the Chinese state. My friend would never insinuate that it is problematic to doubt the WHO or otherwise express opinions disfavored by President Xi. So I'll keep my friend, and I'll let you keep yours.
> > > What matters, to me, is your takeaway from this "theory" of yours. What
> > > should we discuss / do / have done instead? What's your conclusion?
> >
> > I'm not sure I understand the question.
>
> Your comments, and your conclusion, is functionally identical to Chinese scapegoating that will turn people against "dirty" Chinese civilians all over the western world. How do you responsibly prevent that, while holding regimes accountable?
What kind of talk is this??? Right back at you, bud. Your line of attack is "functionally identical" to saying that nobody should be allowed to criticize the Chinese government, because it is always somehow racist and problematic by some guilt-by-association smear logic.
Sorry if that kind of interpretation is uncharitable. I realize you did not ACTUALLY say that. But then again, you seem perversely determined to judge me by things I did not actually say. Why is ANY of this necessary?
If you think I am wrong in anything I said or did, give me an honest argument. One that addresses what I actually said.
> Because "it's people's responsibility to read what I say and take the right lesson from it" is fine when it's you and me. But that's not what's happening in the world.
I'm not an elitist. I do not consider myself to be morally superior to the common man. I certainly do not trust the political and corporate elites who try to position themselves as the cultural managers of the common man.
Not just you and I, but also the common man, has a right to criticize China. To the extent that he is a voting citizen in a democracy, he might even be said to have a duty to be concerned about such things. At the very least, he has a duty to stand up to anyone who tries to tell him what he may or may not discuss.
> No, I phrased that badly. It was a more general hope for cases where you (for example) are voicing criticisms of dishonest and agenda-driven government agencies. Do it in such a way, responsibly, as to avoid the risks that accompany the (functionally indistinguishable) nationalist scapegoating.
And how should I do it "responsibly"??? And how was I not "responsible"?
> None of it does much good now anyway. Who cares which country was "to blame"?
Under the ideals of (oldschool) liberalism, which value freedom of speech, whether certain foreign governments are "to blame" for this or that, is certainly a legitimate thing that free citizens should have a right to discuss. We should have just as much right to criticize foreign governments as we do to criticize our own governments. Of course, we are also free to argue that the foreign government is NOT to blame. We might even argue that the issue does not matter, and that other issues matter more. We lose all authority, however, when we start arguing that no-one should be allowed to discuss the topic.
I don't know why you keep raising the spectre of scapegoating. If you want to accuse me of scapegoating, just go ahead and do that. But I'd like to know who you think I have scapegoated.
> It's here, now, on all our doorsteps. Now we need to trust the medics again.
This is not a case of "fool me twice, shame on me."
It is exactly a case of "fool me twice, shame on me", if we continue to trust the censors and allow them to censor us.
> > On Westeros.org, people did not get censored (banned) for saying Trump was
> > covering up coronavirus numbers, and nobody, including me, was calling for
> > that. But I was (secretly) censored for saying China was doing it. How
> > is it possible to have any kind of honest discussion when moderators are
> > secretly putting their fingers on the scale like this?
>
> This is a you-and-westeros problem, it's not my problem.
You don't have to be interested. But you have chosen to have a discussion with me about it. If you're not interested, feel free to stop talking to me about it at any time. What else am I supposed to say to a remark like this?
> I get the frustration of being moderated out of a community and then having no recourse to talk about it though.
I'm talking about it here. With you. And maybe with anyone else who might show up.
One of the reasons this cannot be discussed on Westeros.org is of course because one of the cardinal rules of Westeros.org is that you cannot discuss the moderators. I'm curious to find if any others have run into problems for daring to criticize China (or otherwise hold "wrong" political opinions). Maybe someone will show up. Maybe not. But if someone does, I could compare notes.
What would happen if the plight of the Uygher muslims were mentioned on Westeros.org in the international thread? I can't help being curious.