Arya Is Still in Braavos?

[Platypus]

GRRM's latest comment is discouraging ... spending time in Braavos with the girl with no name. This confirms the implications of the comments he made in June. So, at the point he is currently writing, Arya is still running around Braavos assassinating people? Either he is still early in WINDS, or WINDS itself has not progressed very far. When, exactly, will the threads start to come together?

I had at the back of my mind an implausible glimmer of doubt. Perhaps there are two "girls with no name" in the story. Perhaps Dany, who is not really Dany (unpopular theory alert!), has arrived in Braavos on a quest for her true identity. But that's a silly hope. It would be totally out of character for GRRM to tease us and troll us with having even less done than he has.

So I guess I'll just have to fall back on the hope that he writes his chapters out of order.

Or perhaps I am wrong in supposing that there can be no significant plot convergences while Arya remains in Braavos. Perhaps Braavos will be the place where Arya and Dany will meet up?

[Butterbumps@Home]

maanantai 17. elokuuta 2020 klo 19.52.15 UTC+3 Platypus kirjoitti:

> GRRM's latest comment is discouraging ... spending time in Braavos with the
> girl with no name. This confirms the implications of the comments he made
> in June. So, at the point he is currently writing, Arya is still running around
> Braavos assassinating people? Either he is still early in WINDS, or WINDS
> itself has not progressed very far. When, exactly, will the threads start to
> come together?

Yeah, saw that one. My immediate assumption was that Arya isn't going to head back to Westeros any time soon. Maybe she has more stuff going on in the books, making it a less boring sideline than the TV series made it? What with the Iron Bank's involvement in payrolling Cersei's rule, I can see some crossover potential right there that could make for interesting reading.

Maybe she's just going to come back and kill the Freys and put them in a pie later in the book (that bit was definitely Martin's, I would judge).

> I had at the back of my mind an implausible glimmer of doubt. Perhaps
> there are two "girls with no name" in the story. Perhaps Dany, who is not
> really Dany (unpopular theory alert!), has arrived in Braavos on a quest
> for her true identity. But that's a silly hope. It would be totally out of
> character for GRRM to tease us and troll us with having even less
> done than he has.

I don't remember this ... did Daenerys go to Braavos? I've completely lost track of the various Targaryens and fakes. One got burned up by a dragon, that was actually cool. What's the theory? Have you put it here somewhere before? Apologies for not following along.

> So I guess I'll just have to fall back on the hope that he writes his
> chapters out of order.

That's also a possibility. Maybe he does whole threads and he's doing Arya's last?

> Or perhaps I am wrong in supposing that there can be no significant
> plot convergences while Arya remains in Braavos. Perhaps Braavos
> will be the place where Arya and Dany will meet up?

Right, or Arya does something with the Iron Bank to destroy Cersei's credit or buy herself the resources she needs to carry her vendetta home.



B@h
--
https://hatboy.blog/

[Platypus]

On Friday, August 21, 2020 at 7:29:24 AM UTC-4, Butterbumps@Home wrote:
> I don't remember this ... did Daenerys go to Braavos?

Dany's earliest memories of childhood are of the house with the red door, and the lemon tree outside her window, and she thinks this was in Braavos. Except that lemon trees don't grow in Braavos.

The idea that this discrepancy might be significant has been dubbed "Lemongate". "Lemongate" is the source of various theories; and also much hostility that I don't really understand.

GRRM has seemingly confirmed that the discrepancy is at least significant:
https://imgur.com/EXN26tk

> What's the theory? Have you put it here somewhere before?

I think I must have mentioned Lemongate here before, but I'm not sure.

[Butterbumps@Home]

perjantai 28. elokuuta 2020 klo 21.15.28 UTC+3 Platypus kirjoitti:

> > I don't remember this ... did Daenerys go to Braavos?
>
> Dany's earliest memories of childhood are of the house with the red door,
> and the lemon tree outside her window, and she thinks this was in
> Braavos. Except that lemon trees don't grow in Braavos.

Huh. Interesting. This was the merchant's (magister's) place that they were hidden with as kids, Illyrio, yeah?

> The idea that this discrepancy might be significant has been dubbed
> "Lemongate". "Lemongate" is the source of various theories; and
> also much hostility that I don't really understand.
>
> GRRM has seemingly confirmed that the discrepancy is at least
> significant:
>
> https://imgur.com/EXN26tk

That is pretty weird, that there'd be "hostility" over it. I mean, it does seem like a weird nitpick and maybe Martin just didn't think about the climate vs. what would grow there, like how does anything grow in a world with years-long seasons? Maybe his response to it was a bit of face-saving like "yeah, I totally thought of that, it's a clue."

*shrug* Be interesting to see if it goes anywhere.

> > What's the theory? Have you put it here somewhere before?
>
> I think I must have mentioned Lemongate here before, but I'm not sure.

I don't remember it. So something about her not being the real Daenerys, or having been somewhere else and being imprinted with a fake narrative about it in order to carry off the deception, or...?


B@w
--
https://hatboy.blog/

[Platypus]

On Monday, August 31, 2020 at 3:58:22 AM UTC-4, Butterbumps@Home wrote:
> perjantai 28. elokuuta 2020 klo 21.15.28 UTC+3 Platypus kirjoitti:
> > > I don't remember this ... did Daenerys go to Braavos?
> >
> > Dany's earliest memories of childhood are of the house with the red door,
> > and the lemon tree outside her window, and she thinks this was in
> > Braavos. Except that lemon trees don't grow in Braavos.
>
> Huh. Interesting. This was the merchant's (magister's) place that they were hidden
> with as kids, Illyrio, yeah?

Not as far as we know. Illyrio's manse is in Pentos, not Braavos. Dany and Viserys took shelter with Illyrio only after years of wandering, long after they left the House with the Red Door.

The only person Dany clearly remembers from "the house with the red door" is Sir Willem Darry, or a person she believes was Sir Willem Darry.

She also believes Viserys was there, and servants as well, but it is unclear if she explicitly remembers them. She could here be conflating her fading memories with Viserys' stories. For instance, it is based on Viserys' stories that she imagines she can almost remember the flight from Dragonstone, though of course, she was far too young to have remembered such a thing.

> > The idea that this discrepancy might be significant has been dubbed
> > "Lemongate". "Lemongate" is the source of various theories; and
> > also much hostility that I don't really understand.
> >
> > GRRM has seemingly confirmed that the discrepancy is at least
> > significant:
> >
> > https://imgur.com/EXN26tk
>
> That is pretty weird, that there'd be "hostility" over it.

That's how I have always felt. But I guess some don't like where they think this clue leads (even if it does not necessarily lead to any particular conclusion). But the "lemon-haters" were real, and perhaps still are.

> I mean, it does seem like a weird nitpick and maybe Martin just didn't think about
> the climate vs. what would grow there, like how does anything grow in a world with
> years-long seasons? Maybe his response to it was a bit of face-saving like "yeah, I
> totally thought of that, it's a clue."

Well, that essentially explains away the discrepancy into nothing.

Except that GRRM was not put on the spot here. He does not routinely respond to fan messages, could have simply ignored this by not responding at all. For some reason he chose to respond to this one.

And it is true that this is a fantasy world, and GRRM can make lemons grow anywhere he wants them to. It's just that GRRM keeps on telling us that lemons and citrus fruits don't grow that far north:

In A GAME OF THRONES we have:
- Ned's tale of a food fight involving Robert and a barrel of oranges imported into the Vale, where the oranges turned out to be rotten. One could infer from this that citrus fruits do not grow naturally in the Vale.
- Dany buys fragrant oils, imported from Westeros, whose scent remind her of home. (This is not about lemons, but it may be another clue inconsistent with Braavos).
and in A CLASH OF KINGS we have:
- Sharna's sarcastic response, in the Riverlands, when Anguy the Dornish Archer asks her for lemons with his duck: ""Lemons. And where would we get lemons? Does this look like Dorne to you, you freckled fool? Why don't you hop out back to the lemon trees and pick us a bushel, and some nice olives and pomegranates too." "

in A STORM OF SWORDS:
- from Pod's heraldry lesson with Tyrion, we learn that lemons are associated with Dorne: "A purple field strewn with lemons? For House Dalt? Of, of Lemonwood.""

in A FEAST FOR CROWS:
- in Hotah's first chapter, we learn that lemons, limes and blood oranges grow in Doran Martell's retreat, at the Water Gardens, in Dorne; nearby rioters throw lemons and blood oranges.
- in Arianne's "Queenmaker" chapter, we learn that lemon orchards grow near the Greenblood River.
- In "Cat of the Canals" we learn that Braavos has 3 kinds of weather: fog, rain and freezing rain. On the best days, the sun peeks through in the morning. [Hence, not a good place for lemons, which, in the real world at least, require plenty of sun].
- At Maidenpool, Septon Meribald has 9 sacks of oranges, that he got from a sailor, among his supplies for the poor. They are "rare and costly" in this region. Later, at the Inn of the Crossroads, he meets a lad who has never had an orange before. (it seems, therefore, that imported oranges while routine to aristocrats, not commonly available to common folk).
- Cersei is mentioned eating a blood orange, which is nothing new for aristocrats (we've been seeing it since book 1, when, for example, Arya threw an orange at Sansa), but this time it is explicitly mentioned that the blood orange was imported from Dorne (and I guess the others were as well).

in A DANCE WITH DRAGONS:
- Dany encounters lemon trees in Slaver's Bay, on the south coast of Essos, at a similar latitude as Dorne.
- GRRM publishes, for the first time, a map of the free cities, which shows that Braavos is NORTH of the Vale, and far north of the Riverlands. Arguably, it was only at this point that a discrepancy was revealed (or created?), since the exact location of Braavos was far less clear previously.

... but if the last item was an unintentional mistake on GRRM's part, why does he keep twisting the knife? see the following items:

in MERCY, the WINDS OF WINTER sample chapter:
- Arya overhears the following conversation between two Westerosi guards: " "Seven hells, this place is damp," she heard her guard complain. "I'm chilled to the bone. Where are the bloody orange trees? I always heard there were orange trees in the Free Cities. Lemons and limes. Pomegranates. Hot peppers, warm nights, girls with bare bellies. Where are the bare-bellied girls, I ask you?" "Down in Lys, and Myr, and Old Volantis," the other guard replied [...]. ".... Braavos is NORTH of King's Landing, fool. Can't you read a bloody map?" "
- Littlefinger uses up all of the (presumably imported) lemons in the Vale, to make a giant lemon cake in honor of his "natural daughter" Alayne, and sends to Dorne for more.

in A WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE:
- lemons are only mentioned once, and in connection with Dorne.
- we learn that Braavos "the Secret City" was founded by hunted slaves, who hoped that its frequent fogs would shield it from the eyes of Valyrian dragonriders. (Again, this emphasizes the lack of sun it gets).

> *shrug* Be interesting to see if it goes anywhere.
> > > What's the theory? Have you put it here somewhere before?
> >
> > I think I must have mentioned Lemongate here before, but I'm not sure.
> I don't remember it. So something about her not being the real Daenerys, or having
> been somewhere else and being imprinted with a fake narrative about it in order to
> carry off the deception, or...?

Yeah, that sort of thing.

My personal opinion is that the "Ser Willem" she remembers from her childhood is not the "Ser Willem Darry" from Viserys' stories at all, but is in fact Lord Willam Dustin, one of Ned's companions at the Tower of Joy. You may recall his widow being upset at Ned's failure to return his bones. But that gets out of the core facts of "Lemongate" and into the realm of more specific theory.

[Butterbumps@Home]

tiistai 1. syyskuuta 2020 klo 23.31.57 UTC+3 Platypus kirjoitti:

> > Huh. Interesting. This was the merchant's (magister's) place that they were hidden
> > with as kids, Illyrio, yeah?
>
> Not as far as we know. Illyrio's manse is in Pentos, not Braavos.

Ooh right, my bad.

> Dany and Viserys took shelter with Illyrio only after years of
> wandering, long after they left the House with the Red Door.

Interesting. So she may be another backup "created" by Varys, set in motion after being snatched up from this warm southern place with lemons. She was told later that this was Braavos, in order to keep her story correct to Daenerys's story, but she was in fact from somewhere else?

So where is the true Daenerys Stormborn who was brought from Dragonstone as a baby? Separated for safety? Was Viserys the real thing? Did he know?

> The only person Dany clearly remembers from "the house with
> the red door" is Sir Willem Darry, or a person she believes was
> Sir Willem Darry.

And I'm not sure what this means. Would he have been a Varys contact who sent word that a good lookalike had shown up, and thus earned himself a knighthood?

> She also believes Viserys was there, and servants as well, but it
> is unclear if she explicitly remembers them. She could here be
> conflating her fading memories with Viserys' stories. For instance,
> it is based on Viserys' stories that she imagines she can almost
> remember the flight from Dragonstone, though of course, she
> was far too young to have remembered such a thing.

Right, Vierys's involvement makes it even more convoluted.

And on a purely technical storytelling note, do we really think Martin is going to switch or add this layer of complexity so late in the series? We're pretty invested in the Daenerys we've seen all this time.

> > That is pretty weird, that there'd be "hostility" over it.
>
> That's how I have always felt. But I guess some don't like where
> they think this clue leads (even if it does not necessarily lead to
> any particular conclusion). But the "lemon-haters" were real,
> and perhaps still are.

I admit, I can't really see how this (aside from "cool, the theory panned out" cred) would be a great development for the story, but I'm open to being pleasantly surprised. As I said, I've been entertained by some of Martin's slow-burn and sudden-reversal tricks before, but this would be a whole order of magnitude bigger.

However, as you've shown below, there's a *lot* of compelling evidence for Daenerys mis-remembering something about her past, at the very least. So it will be interesting to see where it goes.

I guess I can understand why people wouldn't want to worry about this theory because of the possible ramifications for their enjoyment of the story. And tempers do get pretty high when fans get (in their eyes) snubbed. But oh well.

> > I mean, it does seem like a weird nitpick and maybe Martin just didn't think about
> > the climate vs. what would grow there, like how does anything grow in a world with
> > years-long seasons? Maybe his response to it was a bit of face-saving like "yeah, I
> > totally thought of that, it's a clue."
>
> Well, that essentially explains away the discrepancy into nothing.

Yeah, and I'm satisfied by your explanation as to why it doesn't seem to be the case.

> Except that GRRM was not put on the spot here. He does not
> routinely respond to fan messages, could have simply ignored
> this by not responding at all. For some reason he chose to
> respond to this one.

And he certainly seems to have put some effort into establishing a continuity issue, so yeah - I can accept that his response is more of a "yay, someone noticed my clue" than an attempt to wave it off or take credit for an accident.

> And it is true that this is a fantasy world, and GRRM can make
> lemons grow anywhere he wants them to. It's just that GRRM
> keeps on telling us that lemons and citrus fruits don't grow
> that far north:

Oh for sure, and "it's a fantasy world and I can grow whatever" is a bit of a lame justification. Even if I do think the climate of the world is utterly incomprehensible anyway, rules are rules.

<snip excellent info-gathering>

Nice stuff. Colour me convinced. There's definitely smoke here.

> My personal opinion is that the "Ser Willem" she remembers from
> her childhood is not the "Ser Willem Darry" from Viserys' stories at
> all, but is in fact Lord Willam Dustin, one of Ned's companions
> at the Tower of Joy. You may recall his widow being upset at
> Ned's failure to return his bones. But that gets out of the core facts
> of "Lemongate" and into the realm of more specific theory.

Interesting, so another ... Lyanna had twins and Ned sent Dustin away with her, or...

I don't know. I've got nothing.



B@w
--
https://hatboy.blog/

[Platypus]

On Thursday, September 3, 2020 at 5:42:37 AM UTC-4, Butterbumps@Home wrote:
> Interesting. So she may be another backup "created" by Varys, set in motion after
> being snatched up from this warm southern place with lemons. She was told later
> that this was Braavos, in order to keep her story correct to Daenerys's story, but
> she was in fact from somewhere else?

I would say that Viserys was definitely in on the scheme. On Dany wedding night, Viserys seemed skeptical that Dany would pass as a Targaryen princess. The purple gown, to bring out the color of her eyes, was evidently meant by Illyrio to help her pass. Also, Dany remembers being brutally punished by Viserys, for not 'remembering who she was' when she made the mistake of remarking to him that she would like to be a sailor. This could be more than mere sadism -- there might be a method to such madness.

Viserys' crude idea of the purpose the scheme is that he would trade his [fake?] sister to Khal Drogo in exchange for a Dothraki army that would help him retake the Seven Kingdoms. Viserys' ideas were unrealistic, and Illyrio apparently tried to warn him as much.

Illyrio's ideas were presumably more realistic, but I cannot guess what exactly they were. Illyrio told Tyrion that he had to stop Viserys from ravishing Dany before her wedding, which would have "ruined years of planning''; so Illyrio must have expected something out of it. The "years of planning" remark also suggests that Illyrio's schemes predate Viserys and Dany coming to live with him. Perhaps the years of wandering, in which Dany was introduced to all the various courts of Essos, was part of the plan.

Note also, that Illyrio is a slaver, and one of the commodities he deals with is Valyrian-featured girls. So it would not do for Dany to be too closely associated with Illyrio, without being established elsewhere first.

Illyrio also told Tyrion that he did not expect Dany to survive life on the Dothraki sea. So whatever he hoped to get out of it, I guess it did not necessarily depend on Dany's survival. Maybe it's nothing more elaborate than throwing gifts at the Dothraki in the hopes of cashing in favors later.

But of course, if Illyrio is involved, that suggests that his buddy Varys is involved as well.

> So where is the true Daenerys Stormborn who was brought from Dragonstone as a
> baby?

Who knows? The vast majority of the doubly-inbred* children born to Aerys and Rhaella, died very young, even when they did not miscarry. The 3 exceptions were:
- Rhaegar (who may be the son of Bonifer rather than Aerys, hence avoiding the bad affects of double-inbreeding);
- Viserys (who was physically healthy, but mad nonetheless); and
- Daenerys (who does not count if this theory is true).
So my guess would be that the "real Dany" died in infancy.

*by "doubly inbred" I mean two consecutive generations of sibling incest -- that not only were the parents siblings, but the two grandparents were siblings as well.

> Separated for safety?

Could be. If you want an alternate theory: Whenever I see a girl with green hair, I can't help suspecting a hidden Targ. Wylla Manderly has green hair, and is the right age to be the "real" Daenerys. Of course, she is also a very minor character, introduced very late.

> > The only person Dany clearly remembers from "the house with
> > the red door" is Sir Willem Darry, or a person she believes was
> > Sir Willem Darry.
>
> And I'm not sure what this means. Would he have been a Varys contact who sent
> word that a good lookalike had shown up, and thus earned himself a knighthood?

Ser Willem Darry was the Targaryen loyalist who escaped from Dragonstone with Viserys and Dany. He apparently died in Braavos.

While he lived, and while he was in Braavos, Ser Willem Darry signed the Dornish marriage pact between Viserys and Arianne, on behalf of Viserys. It seems he never got around to telling Viserys about it.

When Quentyn shows Dany the Dornish marriage pact, Dany notices that it makes no reference to herself. Dany wonders why this makes her feel so strange.

I'm not sure why the Dornish marriage pact would necessarily mention Dany (though, of course, she could have been betrothed to Quentyn, but was not). But perhaps one reason she was not mentioned is that the "real Dany" had already died at this point, or was otherwise beyond Ser Willem's power to offer her in marriage.

> And on a purely technical storytelling note, do we really think Martin is going to
> switch or add this layer of complexity so late in the series?

Well, he bit off more than he could chew, I guess. I suppose the most likely thing is that he will never finish the series. Or he will finish, but only by changing course, and dropping threads he had planned. Or he will change course in an attempt to finish, and still not finish. Despair, despair!

> We're pretty invested in the Daenerys we've seen all this time.

Yes, but do we really want Dany to be the mad daughter of the Mad King? We've already seen where the TV show took that thread of her identity. Maybe she can remember who she (really) is, and somehow avoid that ultimate fate, even if Kings Landing does not.

Maybe the mad-power fantasy is what attracts Dany to some fans. On the other hand, maybe some fans would be happier to find out she is the daughter of Rhaegar and Lyanna (or Ashara), the granddaughter of Bonifer and Rhaella, and the great great granddaughter of Dunk and Egg. She can still be one of the 3 heads of the dragon.

Note that Ser Jorah thinks Dany is more like Rhaegar than like the Mad King. And Ser Barristan thinks Dany has Ashara's eyes.

The theme of an abused child being taught to believe she is someone else, and used as a pawn in political schemes, is currently being played out with Jeyne Poole aka "Fake Arya". It remains to be seen if the torture-abuse of Jeyne Poole (a much older child, who ought to have more resistance to such schemes) has led to loss of identity and false memory. But if that happens, another precedent will have been set for the final reveal.

> Interesting, so another ... Lyanna had twins and Ned sent Dustin away with her, or...
> I don't know. I've got nothing.

Or.... maybe more "Irish twins" than "twins" ...

There are reasons to suspect that Jon (regardless of who his mother was) is too old to have been born at the time of the battle at Tower of Joy, which is when Ned found Lyanna in her bed of blood. Especially if Jon was conceived at Harrenhall in 281, which is an actual rumor evidently believed by at least some of the servants.

Then there's Ashara. Cersei taunted Ned with the suggestion that Ashara committed suicide after Ned stole her baby. Cersei suspects the stolen baby was Jon, but another rumor mentions a stillborn daughter.

But Dustin, if he survived the fight for any length of time, stayed at the Tower of Joy. He "never lived to ride away". But there were 8 cairns and 9 bodies (including Lyanna's) at the Tower of Joy. Lyanna would have needed a cairn until her bones were ready for transport. So someone, for whatever reason, did not get a cairn. So if Dustin is the man Dany remembers, then the House with the Red Door must be at the Tower of Joy (the tower itself was torn down).

[Butterbumps@Home]

torstai 3. syyskuuta 2020 klo 23.42.18 UTC+3 Platypus kirjoitti:

> > Interesting. So she may be another backup "created" by Varys, set in motion after
> > being snatched up from this warm southern place with lemons. She was told later
> > that this was Braavos, in order to keep her story correct to Daenerys's story, but
> > she was in fact from somewhere else?
>
> I would say that Viserys was definitely in on the scheme. On Dany wedding
> night, Viserys seemed skeptical that Dany would pass as a Targaryen
> princess. The purple gown, to bring out the color of her eyes, was evidently
> meant by Illyrio to help her pass. Also, Dany remembers being brutally
> punished by Viserys, for not 'remembering who she was' when she
> made the mistake of remarking to him that she would like to be a
> sailor. This could be more than mere sadism -- there might be a method
> to such madness.

True.

> Viserys' crude idea of the purpose the scheme is that he would trade
> his [fake?] sister to Khal Drogo in exchange for a Dothraki army that
> would help him retake the Seven Kingdoms. Viserys' ideas were
> unrealistic, and Illyrio apparently tried to warn him as much.

Also true, that was an odd agreement anyway and seemed set up to get Viserys out of the way because he was temperamentally unsuited to manage with any sort of waiting. Maybe once it became clear he was a foaming lunatic, the Varys Illuminati orchestrated this "deal" to a) provoke Viserys into a golden suicide and b) leave their Daenerys asset in a position where they had some sway over a Dothraki horde on the up and up.

Question then becomes, did the Varys Illuminati orchestrate Mirri Maz and the fall of Drogo? And when that event resulted in the birth of the dragons, they then threw all their chips into Daenerys's pot?

And if she's fake, what about the dragons?

> Illyrio's ideas were presumably more realistic, but I cannot guess what
> exactly they were. Illyrio told Tyrion that he had to stop Viserys from
> ravishing Dany before her wedding, which would have "ruined years
> of planning''; so Illyrio must have expected something out of it. The
> "years of planning" remark also suggests that Illyrio's schemes predate
> Viserys and Dany coming to live with him. Perhaps the years of
> wandering, in which Dany was introduced to all the various courts
> of Essos, was part of the plan.

Sure, but that could also just mean he was a conspirator in the whole "getting the Targaryen heirs out of Westeros and setting up their return" plan. Viserys wanting to fuck Daenerys is arguably just something he saw as his birthright - she, after all, seems to have been resigned to marrying him as she was "supposed" to before the Drogo setup.

Maybe the Drogo setup was all about triggering a classic Targaryen love rage and marriage as written about in "Fire & Blood". I don't know. Seems like a stretch. Setting Viserys up to get the fuck murdered out of him though, that seems easy. Keeping him alive would have been the challenge - and ultimately wouldn't have been worth it?

> Note also, that Illyrio is a slaver, and one of the commodities he
> deals with is Valyrian-featured girls. So it would not do for Dany
> to be too closely associated with Illyrio, without being established
> elsewhere first.

*nod*

> Illyrio also told Tyrion that he did not expect Dany to survive life
> on the Dothraki sea. So whatever he hoped to get out of it, I
> guess it did not necessarily depend on Dany's survival. Maybe
> it's nothing more elaborate than throwing gifts at the Dothraki
> in the hopes of cashing in favors later.

Yeah, that seems like the only reason to marry her off. Drogo looked like becoming a unifying Dothraki force, and Varys had enough fake heirs to throw around that he could discard the (only?) real one (Viserys) in order to prune the madness away, gain an ally in Drogo, and keep the (presumably) real Daenerys secret wherever she is. If she's alive.

Still seems like a lot, at this late stage in the story. I agree though, the setup is there if he wants to go for it. It'd be different to the TV series, I'll give it that.

> But of course, if Illyrio is involved, that suggests that his buddy
> Varys is involved as well.

Oh, Varys has to be involved.

> > So where is the true Daenerys Stormborn who was brought
> > from Dragonstone as a baby?
>
> Who knows? The vast majority of the doubly-inbred* children
> born to Aerys and Rhaella, died very young, even when they
> did not miscarry. The 3 exceptions were:
>
> - Rhaegar (who may be the son of Bonifer rather than Aerys,
> hence avoiding the bad affects of double-inbreeding);
> - Viserys (who was physically healthy, but mad nonetheless); and
> - Daenerys (who does not count if this theory is true).
> So my guess would be that the "real Dany" died in infancy.

That'd be neater than bringing her in from nowhere.

> > Separated for safety?
>
> Could be. If you want an alternate theory: Whenever I see a girl with
> green hair, I can't help suspecting a hidden Targ. Wylla Manderly
> has green hair, and is the right age to be the "real" Daenerys.

Hmm.

> Of course, she is also a very minor character, introduced very late.

Right.

> > > The only person Dany clearly remembers from "the house with
> > > the red door" is Sir Willem Darry, or a person she believes was
> > > Sir Willem Darry.
> >
> > And I'm not sure what this means. Would he have been a Varys contact who sent
> > word that a good lookalike had shown up, and thus earned himself a knighthood?
>
> Ser Willem Darry was the Targaryen loyalist who escaped from
> Dragonstone with Viserys and Dany. He apparently died in Braavos.
>
> While he lived, and while he was in Braavos, Ser Willem Darry
> signed the Dornish marriage pact between Viserys and Arianne,
> on behalf of Viserys. It seems he never got around to telling
> Viserys about it.
>
> When Quentyn shows Dany the Dornish marriage pact, Dany
> notices that it makes no reference to herself. Dany wonders
> why this makes her feel so strange.
>
> I'm not sure why the Dornish marriage pact would necessarily
> mention Dany (though, of course, she could have been betrothed
> to Quentyn, but was not).

I assumed it made her feel strange because she had always assumed she would be co-married to Viserys, and it was no more complicated than that.

> But perhaps one reason she was not mentioned is that the
> "real Dany" had already died at this point, or was otherwise
> beyond Ser Willem's power to offer her in marriage.

Hmm.

> > And on a purely technical storytelling note, do we really think Martin is going to
> > switch or add this layer of complexity so late in the series?
>
> Well, he bit off more than he could chew, I guess. I suppose the most
> likely thing is that he will never finish the series. Or he will finish,
> but only by changing course, and dropping threads he had
> planned. Or he will change course in an attempt to finish, and
> still not finish. Despair, despair!

Oof, well I am still holding out some glimmer of hope. And all of this is definitely interesting. I really need to re-read though, because I'm a bit lost on the details.

> > We're pretty invested in the Daenerys we've seen all this time.
>
> Yes, but do we really want Dany to be the mad daughter of
> the Mad King?

I honestly don't know. I hadn't given it much thought past "Rhaegar was a sane Targaryen, Viserys was a mad Targaryen, and we're left with the classic 'gods toss a coin' for Daenerys." I'd like her to be a good queen and rekindle the glory days of Old Valyria but I just don't feel like that's the story Martin has set out to tell us. He's a sucker for happy endings in a lot of his other writing but this seems like it'll be bittersweet at best. And with his interest in the full Targaryen dynasty told through his prelude histories, he's building to a grand tragedy to end their line.

These additional fake Targaryens, while interesting, are definitely overcomplicating that. Not that there's anything wrong with overcomplication. It's his story.

> We've already seen where the TV show took that thread of her identity.
> Maybe she can remember who she (really) is, and somehow avoid
> that ultimate fate, even if Kings Landing does not.

Possibly. Or Bran can tell her. Before absolutely under no circumstances becoming king.

> Maybe the mad-power fantasy is what attracts Dany to some fans.
> On the other hand, maybe some fans would be happier to find out
> she is the daughter of Rhaegar and Lyanna (or Ashara), the
> granddaughter of Bonifer and Rhaella, and the great great
> granddaughter of Dunk and Egg. She can still be one of the 3 heads
> of the dragon.

Good point! Jon finding out she's his sister is even more fun than finding out she's his aunt.

> Note that Ser Jorah thinks Dany is more like Rhaegar than
> like the Mad King. And Ser Barristan thinks Dany has Ashara's eyes.

*nod*

> The theme of an abused child being taught to believe she is
> someone else, and used as a pawn in political schemes, is
> currently being played out with Jeyne Poole aka "Fake Arya".

Ditto Sansa / Alayne and *actual* Arya, in a way.

> It remains to be seen if the torture-abuse of Jeyne Poole
> (a much older child, who ought to have more resistance
> to such schemes) has led to loss of identity and false
> memory. But if that happens, another precedent will have
> been set for the final reveal.

Yep.

> > Interesting, so another ... Lyanna had twins and Ned sent Dustin away with her, or...
> > I don't know. I've got nothing.
>
> Or.... maybe more "Irish twins" than "twins" ...

I don't know if there was time for her to have two rounds of babies with Rhaegar? More than one baby by Rhaegar and Lyanna would almost have to be twins. But if you're saying Jon isn't Aegon, son of Rhaegar...

> There are reasons to suspect that Jon (regardless of who his
> mother was) is too old to have been born at the time of the battle
> at Tower of Joy, which is when Ned found Lyanna in her bed
> of blood. Especially if Jon was conceived at Harrenhall in
> 281, which is an actual rumor evidently believed by at least
> some of the servants.

There must be someone in Westeros capable of basic counting. You can maybe fub the age of a baby by a few months and say it's big or small for its age, and can also fub by a few weeks (medicine and luck notwithstanding) to make it premature or late in birth, but that's about it. Whatever stories got made up to explain Jon's existence, there's a *ton* to explain away and a whole lot of lies and probably excess-baby-hiding that needed to be done.

Maybe "Daenerys" is the baby Ned had to take away from Ashara in order to pretend "Jon" was his bastard (as you say, sort of, below)? And that's why she killed herself (or was murdered and made to look like a suicide, to cover it up). All of these things, we've gone over a *ton* on this group by the way. Because I find the "Jon Snow, Prince of Destiny and Son of Rhaegar" plot to be super boring and clichéd and requiring of far too much underhanded devilry from Ned. What I mean is, if you want to join me in kicking that whole carcass in the head, I'm on board.

I just ... sadly think that at this stage it's too much work for Jon *not* to be the baby in the Tower of Joy's bed of blood.

> Then there's Ashara. Cersei taunted Ned with the suggestion that
> Ashara committed suicide after Ned stole her baby. Cersei
> suspects the stolen baby was Jon, but another rumor mentions
> a stillborn daughter.

Right, exactly.

> But Dustin, if he survived the fight for any length of time, stayed at the
> Tower of Joy. He "never lived to ride away". But there were 8 cairns
> and 9 bodies (including Lyanna's) at the Tower of Joy. Lyanna
> would have needed a cairn until her bones were ready for transport.
> So someone, for whatever reason, did not get a cairn. So if Dustin is
> the man Dany remembers, then the House with the Red Door must
> be at the Tower of Joy (the tower itself was torn down).

Hmm. Again.



C@w
--
https://hatboy.blog/

[Platypus]

On Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 8:03:00 AM UTC-4, Butterbumps@Home wrote:
> Question then becomes, did the Varys Illuminati orchestrate Mirri Maz and the fall
> of Drogo?

I would say no. As a practical matter, how could Varys have foreseen that chain of events. Also, Mirri is part of that chain of events that leads to Dany's rebirth as "the Mother of Dragons", which Illyrio also failed to foresee.

> And if she's fake, what about the dragons?

Targaryen or Valyrian heritage from another source, maybe Rhaegar. It is not as though the Mad King, or Viserys, or Rhaella, had any demonstrated success with real dragons. So it is hard to see that Dany's success with dragons would prove that she were the legitimate child of both Aerys and Rhaella, and the full sister of Viserys.

There is, however, the woods witch prophesy that holds that the prince that was promised must come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella. However, apart from the fact that there are other prominent candidates for "The Prince that Was Promised" (it does not have to be Dany), my suspicion is that the prophesy was misunderstood. Rhaegar, upon realizing that Bonifer was his father, and not Aerys, realized he was not to be the prince that was promised, but could become the father of the prince that was promised by uniting the lines of Aerys and Rhaella. Aerys liked to fool around with the wives of other noble women. So Rhaegar sought out women and girls who were the children of the noble women Aerys fooled around with. Just another of my unpopular theories.

> I assumed it made her feel strange because she had always assumed she would
> be co-married to Viserys, and it was no more complicated than that.

Maybe. But that isn't quite what she says.

> > Yes, but do we really want Dany to be the mad daughter of
> > the Mad King?
> I honestly don't know. I hadn't given it much thought past "Rhaegar was a sane
> Targaryen, Viserys was a mad Targaryen, and we're left with the classic 'gods
> toss a coin' for Daenerys."

Maybe. But Aegon V studied Targaryen genealogy and decided that sibling incest was maybe not such a good idea. His own children ignored his advice for love; and his grandchildren ignored his advice for prophesy, which is almost always going to be an ironic mistake. Maybe the "god's toss a coin" mantra is merely medieval ignorance masking patterns that might be clues.

> These additional fake Targaryens, while interesting, are definitely
> overcomplicating that. Not that there's anything wrong with overcomplication.
> It's his story.

Well, his inability to finish is no doubt a consequence of overcomplication.

> > Or.... maybe more "Irish twins" than "twins" ...
> I don't know if there was time for her to have two rounds of babies with Rhaegar?
> More than one baby by Rhaegar and Lyanna would almost have to be twins.

There is enough time. That's the least of our problems. We don't have an exact timeline, but it is easy, based on what we know, to have Lyanna's abduction last 20 months of more; throwing in maybe 2 or 3 more months if Jon was conceived at Harrenhall and Lyanna was already pregnant at the time of her abduction. Lyanna met Rhaegar at Harrenhall in late 281. She was abducted in early 282. Many fan timelines have the Tower of Joy incident happen in late 283, but that's only because they are trying to make the timeline fit with Jon being the baby born at that time. If we set that aside (as this theory does) it is easy to have the Tower of Joy incident occur in early 284, nearly 2 years after her abduction and more than 2 years after she first conceived.

A bigger issue is GRRM's statement that Jon is not as much as a year older than Dany, but closer to 8 or 9 months or so older. A narrow reading of these words would allow for the possibility of 10 months or perhaps even 11 months difference ("closer to" allows us to fudge to 10 months; and GRRM's fuzzy maybe language maybe allows us to fudge it another month). The only thing that GRRM was absolute or definite about was that it was not as much as a year. But the natural reading is that GRRM meant exactly what he said (8 or 9 months), however much he may have hedged that with uncertainty. 8 or 9 months is certainly a bit tight for Irish Twins, though not medically impossible.

But if you don't like the Irish Twins idea, all we need is a third woman. We know that Rhaegar was willing to two-time on his wife Elia in order to get his 3 heads of the dragon. Three-timing with a third woman is only the logical next step. And Ashara remains an unresolved mystery.

> But if you're saying Jon isn't Aegon, son of Rhaegar...

I think Quentyn is Aegon, and Aegon is Quentyn. Both were dropped from the show. So the show made Jon to be Aegon instead. Unpopular theory alert!

> There must be someone in Westeros capable of basic counting. You can maybe fub
> the age of a baby by a few months and say it's big or small for its age, and can also
> fub by a few weeks (medicine and luck notwithstanding) to make it premature or
> late in birth, but that's about it. Whatever stories got made up to explain Jon's
> existence, there's a *ton* to explain away and a whole lot of lies and probably excess-
> baby-hiding that needed to be done.

But the servants at Winterfell DO seem to think that Jon was conceived at Harrenhall, which would make him much older than his official age. At least, they seemed to think that until Ned sternly ordered them all to STFU.

And we've got Maester Luwyn going around covering for Jon by saying that bastards mature faster than trueborn children. Ya gotta trust the experts!

I actually think you can get away with alot when lying about a child, because most people are trusting and accept what they are told. They will actually enjoy being amazed. But how much fudging one can get away with depends on how old the child is when you first meet him. Catelyn did not hear of Jon until she arrived at Winterfell, which might have been after over a year had passed from Rob's birth, and it was relatively safe to travel with an infant. And of course, she wanted nothing to do with Jon, and was happy to leave him to the care of his "wet nurse", when she was not busy being unhappy that he was there at all.

> I just ... sadly think that at this stage it's too much work for Jon *not* to be the baby in > the Tower of Joy's bed of blood.

Maybe. But fans have done quite a bit of work to make Jon that baby. If Dany was born 9 moons after the Sack of Kings Landing; and if Jon is (at least) 8 months older than Dany, then that puts Jon's birth one month (or less) after the Sack of King's Landing. Which means that Ned was an awfully busy and fast-marching man for that one month (or less).

[Butterbumps@Home]

torstai 10. syyskuuta 2020 klo 3.22.01 UTC+3 Platypus kirjoitti:

> > Question then becomes, did the Varys Illuminati orchestrate Mirri Maz and the fall
> > of Drogo?
>
> I would say no. As a practical matter, how could Varys have foreseen that
> chain of events. Also, Mirri is part of that chain of events that leads to
> Dany's rebirth as "the Mother of Dragons", which Illyrio also failed to
> foresee.

True. So it was ... something, and then surprisingly turned out to actually be the stone dragons awakened by sacrifice prophecy?

> > And if she's fake, what about the dragons?
>
> Targaryen or Valyrian heritage from another source, maybe Rhaegar. It is
> not as though the Mad King, or Viserys, or Rhaella, had any demonstrated
> success with real dragons. So it is hard to see that Dany's success with
> dragons would prove that she were the legitimate child of both Aerys and
> Rhaella, and the full sister of Viserys.

Also true.

> There is, however, the woods witch prophesy that holds that the prince
> that was promised must come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella.
> However, apart from the fact that there are other prominent candidates
> for "The Prince that Was Promised" (it does not have to be Dany), my
> suspicion is that the prophesy was misunderstood. Rhaegar, upon
> realizing that Bonifer was his father, and not Aerys, realized he was
> not to be the prince that was promised, but could become the father
> of the prince that was promised by uniting the lines of Aerys and
> Rhaella. Aerys liked to fool around with the wives of other noble
> women. So Rhaegar sought out women and girls who were the children
> of the noble women Aerys fooled around with. Just another of my
> unpopular theories.

Works for me!

> > I honestly don't know. I hadn't given it much thought past "Rhaegar was a sane
> > Targaryen, Viserys was a mad Targaryen, and we're left with the classic 'gods
> > toss a coin' for Daenerys."
>
> Maybe. But Aegon V studied Targaryen genealogy and decided that
> sibling incest was maybe not such a good idea. His own children
> ignored his advice for love; and his grandchildren ignored his advice
> for prophesy, which is almost always going to be an ironic mistake.
> Maybe the "god's toss a coin" mantra is merely medieval ignorance
> masking patterns that might be clues.

Mmm, man, where were you fifteen years ago when we were debating this? Yeah, this seems sensible to me - was just saying that I personally hadn't given much more thought to Daenerys's specific case. I guess ultimately this was what was driving my lack of surprise at her going power-crazy in the latter seasons of the show. But by all means let's hope Martin can turn it around.

> > These additional fake Targaryens, while interesting, are definitely
> > overcomplicating that. Not that there's anything wrong with overcomplication.
> > It's his story.
>
> Well, his inability to finish is no doubt a consequence of overcomplication.

Fair to say.

> > > Or.... maybe more "Irish twins" than "twins" ...
> >
> > I don't know if there was time for her to have two rounds of babies with Rhaegar?
> > More than one baby by Rhaegar and Lyanna would almost have to be twins.
>
> There is enough time. That's the least of our problems. We don't have an exact
> timeline, but it is easy, based on what we know, to have Lyanna's abduction
> last 20 months of more; throwing in maybe 2 or 3 more months if Jon was
> conceived at Harrenhall and Lyanna was already pregnant at the time of her
> abduction. Lyanna met Rhaegar at Harrenhall in late 281. She was abducted
> in early 282. Many fan timelines have the Tower of Joy incident happen in
> late 283, but that's only because they are trying to make the timeline fit with
> Jon being the baby born at that time. If we set that aside (as this theory does)
> it is easy to have the Tower of Joy incident occur in early 284, nearly 2 years
> after her abduction and more than 2 years after she first conceived.

Interesting.

> A bigger issue is GRRM's statement that Jon is not as much as a year
> older than Dany, but closer to 8 or 9 months or so older. A narrow
> reading of these words would allow for the possibility of 10 months
> or perhaps even 11 months difference ("closer to" allows us to fudge
> to 10 months; and GRRM's fuzzy maybe language maybe allows us
> to fudge it another month). The only thing that GRRM was absolute
> or definite about was that it was not as much as a year. But the
> natural reading is that GRRM meant exactly what he said (8 or 9
> months), however much he may have hedged that with uncertainty.
> 8 or 9 months is certainly a bit tight for Irish Twins, though not
> medically impossible.

Guess we'll have to wait and see.

Sorry, not much but noncommittal agreement here at this point. Looks like a fun idea.

> But if you don't like the Irish Twins idea, all we need is a third
> woman. We know that Rhaegar was willing to two-time on his wife
> Elia in order to get his 3 heads of the dragon. Three-timing with a
> third woman is only the logical next step. And Ashara remains
> an unresolved mystery.

*nod*

> > But if you're saying Jon isn't Aegon, son of Rhaegar...
>
> I think Quentyn is Aegon, and Aegon is Quentyn. Both were
> dropped from the show. So the show made Jon to be Aegon
> instead. Unpopular theory alert!

I think I saw a big YouTube video about this. It may have even been discussed here on the group (may even have been you who linked it - sorry if so).

> > There must be someone in Westeros capable of basic counting. You can maybe fub
> > the age of a baby by a few months and say it's big or small for its age, and can also
> > fub by a few weeks (medicine and luck notwithstanding) to make it premature or
> > late in birth, but that's about it. Whatever stories got made up to explain Jon's
> > existence, there's a *ton* to explain away and a whole lot of lies and probably excess-
> > baby-hiding that needed to be done.
>
> But the servants at Winterfell DO seem to think that Jon was conceived at
> Harrenhall, which would make him much older than his official age. At least,
> they seemed to think that until Ned sternly ordered them all to STFU.

Yup. The big crazy cover-up, when Ned was a spymaster and weaver of rumours and lies to surpass Varys himself. Those were the days. Pity that Ned didn't take on Cersei about her incest-babies and the succession. That Ned might have survived.

> And we've got Maester Luwyn going around covering for Jon by saying
> that bastards mature faster than trueborn children. Ya gotta trust the
> experts!

Well, indeed.

> I actually think you can get away with a lot when lying about a child,

> because most people are trusting and accept what they are told. They
> will actually enjoy being amazed. But how much fudging one can
> get away with depends on how old the child is when you first meet
> him. Catelyn did not hear of Jon until she arrived at Winterfell, which
> might have been after over a year had passed from Rob's birth, and it
> was relatively safe to travel with an infant. And of course, she
> wanted nothing to do with Jon, and was happy to leave him to the
> care of his "wet nurse", when she was not busy being unhappy that
> he was there at all.

Aye.

> > I just ... sadly think that at this stage it's too much work for Jon *not* to
> > be the baby in the Tower of Joy's bed of blood.
>
> Maybe. But fans have done quite a bit of work to make Jon that baby.

Oh, and how. Don't get me started.

> If Dany was born 9 moons after the Sack of Kings Landing; and if
> Jon is (at least) 8 months older than Dany, then that puts Jon's
> birth one month (or less) after the Sack of King's Landing. Which
> means that Ned was an awfully busy and fast-marching man
> for that one month (or less).

Yep.


B@h
--
https://hatboy.blog/

[Butterbumps@Home]

torstai 10. syyskuuta 2020 klo 3.22.01 UTC+3 Platypus kirjoitti:

Incidentally, check this blog comment from 2014 where I outline my main gripes with R+L=J *and* neatly predict what's going to happen with the TV series.

https://hatboy.blog/2014/05/04/a-song-of-ice-and-fire-philosophising/#comment-1823

- B@w

--
https://hatboy.blog

[Platypus]

On Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Butterbumps wrote:
> > I think Quentyn is Aegon, and Aegon is Quentyn. Both were
> > dropped from the show. So the show made Jon to be Aegon
> > instead. Unpopular theory alert!
> I think I saw a big YouTube video about this. It may have even been discussed here on the group (may even have been you who linked it - sorry if so).

Preston Jacobs made a "Quentyn is Alive" video in 2015, though that's not where I got it from -- I've been arguing that Quentyn is alive since 2012. But Preston Jacobs did not touch on the theory of a Quentyn/Aegon baby swap. I've started arguing for that more recently - I think since 2015, and if any big youtubers have had similar ideas, it is news to me. I think I mentioned it before on this forum, though.

[Butterbumps@Home]

sunnuntai 15. marraskuuta 2020 klo 19.58.32 UTC+2 Platypus kirjoitti:
>
> On Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Butterbumps wrote:
>
> > > I think Quentyn is Aegon, and Aegon is Quentyn. Both were
> > > dropped from the show. So the show made Jon to be Aegon
> > > instead. Unpopular theory alert!
> >
> > I think I saw a big YouTube video about this. It may have even been
> > discussed here on the group (may even have been you who linked it
> > - sorry if so).
>
> Preston Jacobs made a "Quentyn is Alive" video in 2015,

That's the one I remember seeing, yeah.

> though that's not where I got it from -- I've been arguing that Quentyn
> is alive since 2012. But Preston Jacobs did not touch on the theory of
> a Quentyn/Aegon baby swap.

*nod*

> I've started arguing for that more recently - I think since 2015, and if
> any big youtubers have had similar ideas, it is news to me. I think I
> mentioned it before on this forum, though.

Right, it did sound familiar but I hadn't thought about it much. Was there much resistance to it? It seems like there's a lot of these (former) babies floating around.


- B@w
--
https://hatboy.blog/