The 1992 Perot vote

[Steve Casburn]

In article <34DF90...@anet-dfw.com>, Roy Lemons <ro...@anet-dfw.com> wrote:
>
> Andrew Hall:
> > Ray Van Tassle:
> >
> > > Ross Perot drained enough votes from Bush that Clinton had a
> > > plurality (NOT a majority).
> >
> > I see no FACTS here, just an opinion that was
> > not supported by either exit polls or pre/post
> > Perot re-entry polls.
> >
> > Do you have an iota of evidence that Perot made
> > the difference?
>
> What do you mean you do not see any facts? Fact Perot split the
> conservative vote. Fact if you add Perot's votes to Bush's votes you
> will find that Bush would of won.

According to the _Index to International Public Opinion, 1992-93_,
there were two polls taken that asked Perot voters who they would vote for
if Perot were not in the race:

"If Ross Perot were not a candidate, whom would you be most likely to
vote for -- George Bush or Bill Clinton?" (June 1992, Harris Poll)

Clinton 41%
Bush 39%
Neither 19%
Not sure 1%

"If you had to choose between just George Bush and Bill Clinton, whom
would you most likely vote for?" (Asked of Perot supporters, October 2-4
'92, Harris Poll)

Clinton 56%
Bush 41%
Neither 2%
Not sure 1%

There's no reason to think, then, that all of Perot's support would
have gone to Bush had Perot not been in the race.

Steve

--
Steve Casburn (Casb...@osu.edu)

"Shut up, he explained."
-- Ring Lardner, Jr.