For Number Junkies

[Boron Elgar]

Here are a couple of interesting sites that are tracking the corona
virus. The one from Johns Hopkins updates with greater frequency and
more detail than the one from Harvard.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/

[Alfalfa Bill]

The official government response:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bZGPwJmNLA

[Howard]

What jumps out at me about these maps is the nearly complete lack of cases
in India.

Either they have the most amazing public health effort going on in their
entire history, or there is a huge gap in the data available.

I don't think it's the first.

[Boron Elgar]

I wish it were that funny in reality.

Weird thing today...I needed hand sanitizer- not for any weird
preventive, I keep a bottle on my desk, because I have been known to
snack while bopping around online and I hate anything getting on the
mouse. My grocery store was out of it. So was a local dollar store,
where I went looking for Bugles, one of those things that encourages a
hand sanitizer at the desk. They were out of Bugles, too, dammit.

[Boron Elgar]

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 23:31:22 +0000 (UTC), Howard <how...@yayoo.com>
wrote:

That is one of the most interesting aspects of the map. Look at
Russia, too.

Glaring gaps as you notice, are among the things that fascinate me
about such data collections.

[Les Albert]

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 23:31:22 +0000 (UTC), Howard <how...@yayoo.com>
wrote:

You are overlooking the possibility that their milieu produces a lung
microbiome in the Indian population that is more powerful than
covid19. See https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4894335/
for in interesting article about the lung microbiota.

Les

[Boron Elgar]

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 16:07:49 -0800, Les Albert <lalb...@aol.com>
wrote:

Whatcha smokin', Les?

[Les Albert]

>Whatcha smokin', Les?

Why do you dismiss the idea?

Les

[John Halpenny]

Perhaps no one in India has gone to China? They don't like China and they can't afford to travel much.

John

[Boron Elgar]

Lots of trade between the two countries. That means physical
interactions at times.

If you want an interesting slant on how some of this has already
affected trade in countries in and outside of China, NHK has a nice
documentary I saw yesterday, that showed business ripples throughout
both Japan and China and extending into many other countries, too.

[Boron Elgar]

On Sat, 29 Feb 2020 19:28:59 -0800 (PST), John Halpenny
<j.hal...@rogers.com> wrote:

Just as an aside, if you want to read up on how diseases can spread,
look at HIV in India in the days before decent treatments. Besides the
clusters within cities amongst drug users and other, smaller
communities, the truck routes are the primary path. Truckers visiting
rising numbers of infected sex workers along their driving routes then
took the disease back home to families did a lot of damage.

[Howard]

Boron Elgar <boron...@hotmail.com> wrote

> If you want an interesting slant on how some of this has already
> affected trade in countries in and outside of China, NHK has a nice
> documentary I saw yesterday, that showed business ripples throughout
> both Japan and China and extending into many other countries, too.

I was at a party yesterday with the following anecdotal reports from
people who knew people in different countries:

UAE is treating this extremely seriously, cancelling a lot of public
gatherings, cancelling a lot of travel in and out, tons of monitoring.

Iran was in a lot of denial but is now taking things very seriously, not
nearly at the level of organization of UAE but moving there.

India is doing little beyond some screening at airports.

The US is closer to India and Iran than the UAE, obviously.

A big hint why can be seen in the way the NY Times seems determined to
treat Trump with kid gloves, bending over backwards to avoid any serious
reporting on what he has been doing:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html

Reporters from the Washington Post, meanwhile, are actually reporting:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-frantic-attempts-
to-minimize-the-coronavirus-crisis/2020/02/29/7ebc882a-5b25-11ea-9b35-
def5a027d470_story.html

https://tinyurl.com/smohpvr

[Boron Elgar]

On Sun, 1 Mar 2020 15:44:22 +0000 (UTC), Howard <how...@yayoo.com>
wrote:

I think Dean Basquet has been the downfall of the NYT.

Note, too, how WHO is walking eggshells in discussing actions and
reactions. Two biggest WHO funders are the US and China. This morning
someone from WHO told the markets to "calm down," as if this is all
similar panic to oncoming storms causing water and toilet paper
supplies to dwindle...oh, there is a bit of that, but mostly it is
severe disruption in the supply chains of the world, most of which
cross China quite a bit. Add that to disruption to all aspects of the
travel industry and you get oodles of fun.

[Snidely]

Remember Sunday, when Boron Elgar asked plainitively:

Your friends at fivethirtyeight.com have an article rating the
effectiveness of quarantines. The answer is somewhere near "so-so",
even though restricted air travel helped contain SARS last time around.

/dps

--
Who, me? And what lacuna?

[Boron Elgar]

On Wed, 04 Mar 2020 20:02:56 -0800, Snidely <snide...@gmail.com>
wrote:

I have no opinions about quarantines, actually. Frankly, my only
guesses about all of this revolve about its being unprecedented and
its unpredictability.

Most individuals have medical risk that is miniscule right now, but
one can see how disruptive this has already been around the globe. The
economic risk/damage, social upheaval, and unpredictability are really
astounding to me.

And Dear Leader went on Fox last night with this:

"President Trump downplayed worries on Wednesday evening, telling Fox
News that a 3.4 percent mortality rate announced by the World Health
Organization was “false” and suggesting it was under 1 percent. “This
is really my hunch,” Trump said."

No one's facts are verifiable and reliable at this point, of course,
and these stats are a moving target, but we have some educated
guesses. Trump's speaking hunches, which are flat out lies, is
frightening, not just in content, but in ego and stupidity. If
anything blows him up this will be it.

Of course, I'm retired these days, so I can spend way too much time on
spreadsheets and business news reports from various sources. There are
few places to get larger collections of updated data. The WaPo is one,
but it is behind a firewall for most. They refresh their special page
very frequently during the day.

Again, I am not worried about going to buy milk and getting coughed
on, I, instead, and trying to distance myself enough to observe all of
this as it happens, try to see where it is going, not just medically,
but socio-politically. There is so very much new data to absorb each
day. Great exercise for the mind, but seeing things swirl, sometimes
out of control all over the globe is mind-boggling.

These are the days of miracle and wonder...

Then there is Turkey, Syria and Russia and about 4 million refugees,
Bibi and bribery, Oh, and don't forget Trump's Taliban peace treaty,
while this bubbled up
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/mar/05/senior-icc-judges-authorise-afghanistan-war-crimes-inquiry

And Kim Jung-Un is playing with his toys again.

More fun numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[Howard]

Boron Elgar <boron...@hotmail.com> wrote

> No one's facts are verifiable and reliable at this point, of course,
> and these stats are a moving target, but we have some educated
> guesses. Trump's speaking hunches, which are flat out lies, is
> frightening, not just in content, but in ego and stupidity. If
> anything blows him up this will be it.

What I find particularly bothersome is the reluctance of much of the
media to talk about this. The Washington Post has been pretty good, but
the NY Times has been steadfast in refusing to address how the White
House is screwing things up, and what the implications are.

This piece does a great job of capturing what Trump and the NY Times are
doing:

https://newrepublic.com/article/156733/virus-not-messaging-problem

the White House and the political desk of The New York
Times view coronavirus in much the same way: as a messaging
problem. Trump is concerned with managing how the political
press covers his response to the crisis; the Times will judge
him on how well he succeeds at controlling the narrative. All
of this posturing will come to a crashing halt if the virus
spreads and scores of Americans begin to die, but unless that
comes to pass, the possibility of that dire outcome will remain
merely a future headline or chyron in the mind of Trump and
Baker alike.

The one thing I disagree with is the idea that the Times will judge
Trump as having failed at messaging even if the virus becomes a lot
worse. They will always grade him on a curve, with the built in
assumption that nothing he can do can earn him less than a passing
grade.

I guarantee the Times will judge Democrats harder for not convincing
Trump to face reality than they will ever judge Trump and the GOP.

[Questor]

On Thu, 05 Mar 2020 08:54:57 -0500, Boron Elgar <boron...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>And Dear Leader went on Fox last night with this:
>
>"President Trump downplayed worries on Wednesday evening, telling Fox
>News that a 3.4 percent mortality rate announced by the World Health
>Organization was "false" and suggesting it was under 1 percent. "This
>is really my hunch," Trump said."
>
>No one's facts are verifiable and reliable at this point, of course,
>and these stats are a moving target, but we have some educated
>guesses. Trump's speaking hunches, which are flat out lies, is
>frightening, not just in content, but in ego and stupidity. If
>anything blows him up this will be it.

Sadly, no. They've already been laying the groundwork to accuse Democrats,
liberals, and of course, Obama for everything that happens. If and when things
get bad enough that the administration's happy talk and lies are so obviously
nonsense, they will simply pivot to finger-pointing and blame, as they have done
so many times before. The MAGAt supporters have long since demonstrated they
will swallow any manner of foul bullshit and pronounce it the sweetest ambrosia.

[Boron Elgar]

On Thu, 5 Mar 2020 16:55:44 +0000 (UTC), Howard <how...@yayoo.com>
wrote:

Trump, of course, is treating this wholly as an imaging problem. I do
not see his Tweets unless they wind up as key in some other, more
newsworthy article or explanation, but this is all the fears I (and
many others) have had about him- what happens when there are serious
threats to our welfare. Slo-mo car crash?

>
>I guarantee the Times will judge Democrats harder for not convincing
>Trump to face reality than they will ever judge Trump and the GOP.

The WaPo is much more my go-to these days. I dropped my sub to the
NYT. I just could not take it any more.

[Alfalfa Bill]

First, Boron, congratulations on your retirement! You have reached the promised land.

Continuing my reports on how CV-19 has effected the world of chess, I have exciting news to pass on. The United States Chess Federation promulgated a new rule prohibiting the customary pre-game or post-game handshakes to prevent the spread of disease. The players will still sit 3 feet across from each other typically for hours at a time and will touch the same chess pieces, but there will be no handshake! Dozens or hundreds of players will group together all day in the same hall room and in the same kibitzers' room, but there will be no handshakes! And when they take breaks they will all buy soda pop from the same vending machines, but there will be no handshakes!

It is a disease-control policy that Donald Trump himself would approve of.

[Boron Elgar]

On Fri, 6 Mar 2020 04:44:59 -0800 (PST), Alfalfa Bill
<tedth...@aol.com> wrote:

>On Thursday, March 5, 2020 at 3:10:08 PM UTC-6, Boron wrote:

>
>First, Boron, congratulations on your retirement! You have reached the promised land.

It is quite freeing. I still have a year or so until DH retires, too.
Then the real fun begins, whatever that may be.

>
>Continuing my reports on how CV-19 has effected the world of chess, I have exciting news to pass on. The United States Chess Federation promulgated a new rule prohibiting the customary pre-game or post-game handshakes to prevent the spread of disease. The players will still sit 3 feet across from each other typically for hours at a time and will touch the same chess pieces, but there will be no handshake! Dozens or hundreds of players will group together all day in the same hall room and in the same kibitzers' room, but there will be no handshakes! And when they take breaks they will all buy soda pop from the same vending machines, but there will be no handshakes!
>
>It is a disease-control policy that Donald Trump himself would approve of.

Social distancing!

I went grocery shopping yesterday and as I went through the usual
routine, I noted how many times I would be coming in contact with
surfaces just handled by others or the often very close proximity to
people when just maneuvering an aisle.

Every time a person in the store sneezed or coughed, actions I
previously would not have noticed at all, I became quite aware of.

I wasn't there taking precautions, just observing the insignificant
behaviors that I hope will remain that way.

There was no hand sanitizer. Shelves were bare. I now check every
store I walk into, just for fun.

.

[61rr...@gmail.com]

On Friday, March 6, 2020 at 10:40:48 AM UTC-5, Boron wrote:
>
> On Fri, 6 Mar 2020 04:44:59 -0800 (PST), Alfalfa Bill
> <tedth...@aol.com> wrote:
>
> >On Thursday, March 5, 2020 at 3:10:08 PM UTC-6, Boron wrote:
>
> >
> >First, Boron, congratulations on your retirement! You have reached the
> >promised land.
>
> It is quite freeing. I still have a year or so until DH retires, too.
> Then the real fun begins, whatever that may be.
>

Buying an R.V./Motorhome??

[Boron Elgar]

No, darling, I prefer planes and hotels for my carbon footprint.

[Howard]

Driving an RV anywhere interesting seems really miserable. Out West last
year I saw a bunch crawling up and down winding mountainous roads and I
struggle to see the point. I've seen them in cities a few times too, and
that also seems miserable.

I've done a couple of bus tours that go from hotel to attraction to hotel,
and that's much more relaxing. Taking trains from city to city is probably
the best.

[Boron Elgar]

On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 19:44:01 +0000 (UTC), Howard <how...@yayoo.com>
wrote:

I, too, have had a few decent bus and van tour experiences.

Sadly, the US trains ain't what they used to be. I had a BIL who
refused to fly and had to go cross country several times by train. It
was never easy or fun.

I do not understand the allure of an RV. Escapes me totally.

[Howard]

Boron Elgar <boron...@hotmail.com> wrote

> Sadly, the US trains ain't what they used to be. I had a BIL who
> refused to fly and had to go cross country several times by train. It
> was never easy or fun.

DC to Boston has a pretty good system, and most of the major cities have
decent enough mass transit. California is getting more reasonable.

But doing the long haul overnight trip sounds like a real burden. I think a
lot of them average 35 mph because our railroads are so screwed up.

> I do not understand the allure of an RV. Escapes me totally.

Maybe if you paid someone to drive you, but then it seems like the cost
would be more than what you pay for a hotel (or camping). White knuckle
driving on a small road in a hard rain storm seems really foul.

[Tim Wright]

We used to have a 36' motor home. It was a low end model we bought
used. We enjoyed it. The advantage of an RV over a train or plane is
that if you see something interesting you can stop and check it out.
Want a snack, get up and fix some popcorn, or make a sandwich.

From what I hear trains generally suck outside of major commuter areas.
There was a guy on TPIR a few weeks ago who rode the train from
Seattle to LA, said it took 40 hours. That is ridiculous. You can
drive a car coast to coast in not much more than that.

[Boron Elgar]

On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 21:40:43 +0000 (UTC), Howard <how...@yayoo.com>
wrote:

>Boron Elgar <boron...@hotmail.com> wrote
>
>> Sadly, the US trains ain't what they used to be. I had a BIL who
>> refused to fly and had to go cross country several times by train. It
>> was never easy or fun.
>
>DC to Boston has a pretty good system, and most of the major cities have
>decent enough mass transit. California is getting more reasonable.

The Bos-Wash route has always been the best of the lot over the past
25 yrs or more. It is almost a commuter line and is profitable. They
take care of it.

Wasn't California supposed to build something comparable, a chunk of
which just got canceled??

>
>But doing the long haul overnight trip sounds like a real burden. I think a
>lot of them average 35 mph because our railroads are so screwed up.

I think it took them longer than overnight. They went from Michigan to
LA. I like trains, but I do not think 2-3 days on one would be fun- at
least not in the US.

>
>> I do not understand the allure of an RV. Escapes me totally.
>
>Maybe if you paid someone to drive you, but then it seems like the cost
>would be more than what you pay for a hotel (or camping). White knuckle
>driving on a small road in a hard rain storm seems really foul.

I like to drive, but yeah, why bother with a monster that just cannot
be pleasant in bad weather.

[Boron Elgar]

On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 15:51:58 -0600, Tim Wright <tlwri...@gmail.com>
wrote:

>On 03/07/2020 14:48, Boron Elgar wrote:
>> On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 19:44:01 +0000 (UTC), Howard <how...@yayoo.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Boron Elgar <boron...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 04:38:06 -0800 (PST), 61rr...@gmail.com wrote:
>>>
>>>>> Buying an R.V./Motorhome??
>>>>
>>>> No, darling, I prefer planes and hotels for my carbon footprint.
>>>
>>> Driving an RV anywhere interesting seems really miserable. Out West last
>>> year I saw a bunch crawling up and down winding mountainous roads and I
>>> struggle to see the point. I've seen them in cities a few times too, and
>>> that also seems miserable.
>>>
>>> I've done a couple of bus tours that go from hotel to attraction to hotel,
>>> and that's much more relaxing. Taking trains from city to city is probably
>>> the best.
>>
>> I, too, have had a few decent bus and van tour experiences.
>>
>> Sadly, the US trains ain't what they used to be. I had a BIL who
>> refused to fly and had to go cross country several times by train. It
>> was never easy or fun.
>>
>> I do not understand the allure of an RV. Escapes me totally.
>>
>We used to have a 36' motor home. It was a low end model we bought
>used. We enjoyed it. The advantage of an RV over a train or plane is
>that if you see something interesting you can stop and check it out.
>Want a snack, get up and fix some popcorn, or make a sandwich.

We love long, long car rides and I suppose there might be some gas
stations that offer popcorn, ahem.

So why did you get rid of it?

>
> From what I hear trains generally suck outside of major commuter areas.
> There was a guy on TPIR a few weeks ago who rode the train from
>Seattle to LA, said it took 40 hours. That is ridiculous. You can
>drive a car coast to coast in not much more than that.

In my prime, not any more.

[Tim Wright]

We just didn't use it as much as we had anticipated. We took one trip
to Florida, and had a great time. Most of the time it stayed at my
inlaws in East Texas and we'd sleep in it when we went to visit.

I wouldn't mind getting another one, but right now isn't the right time.
I'd like to take the grand kids to Disney some day and that would be a
good way to do it.

[Howard]

Tim Wright <tlwri...@gmail.com> wrote:

> On 03/07/2020 19:52, Boron Elgar wrote:

>> So why did you get rid of it?
>
> We just didn't use it as much as we had anticipated. We took one trip
> to Florida, and had a great time. Most of the time it stayed at my
> inlaws in East Texas and we'd sleep in it when we went to visit.
>
> I wouldn't mind getting another one, but right now isn't the right
> time. I'd like to take the grand kids to Disney some day and that
> would be a good way to do it.

One thing that makes them seem a bit more appealing is that airports are
just awful, and I can see the appeal of not wanting to drag kids through
security, sit them on a plane and take the risk of getting stuck on the
runway, transfer to another plane.... Having an RV with a bathroom and
fridge could be an easier way to go.

[Tim Wright]

While air travel was never "fun", at least it was bearable for a while.
Now it is just a drudge and to be avoided unless absotively, posilutely
necessary.

[Howard]

I see a huge amount of whining online about sitting around kids on planes.
And while sometimes I"ve seen kids cry or misbehave, I can't honestly say
it happens a lot. I've seen adults do worse on planes.

For that matter, I've seen a lot of complaints about kids in bar-
restaurants, and either I go to a much classier kind of joint, or else
there are a lot of whiny people. When I see kids, it's typically a bunch of
adults at a table with pitchers, a few kids with a plate of fries tapping
at a phone or playing with Hot Wheels and Barbies... I'm sure sometimes
there are problems, but again I've seen adults do much worse.

[Boron Elgar]

On Sun, 8 Mar 2020 16:06:40 -0500, Tim Wright <tlwri...@gmail.com>

Greyhound of the air.

[61rr...@gmail.com]

IMO, based on actual past experience, Greyhound of the land needs some serious competition, bigtime. Especially if the competition would be on time and have their own, nice depots.

[bobg]

On Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 6:31:26 PM UTC-5, Howard wrote:
> Boron Elgar <boron...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>

> > Here are a couple of interesting sites that are tracking the corona
> > virus. The one from Johns Hopkins updates with greater frequency and
> > more detail than the one from Harvard.
> >
> > https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda759
> > 4740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
> >
> > https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/
>
> What jumps out at me about these maps is the nearly complete lack of cases
> in India.
>
> Either they have the most amazing public health effort going on in their
> entire history, or there is a huge gap in the data available.
>
> I don't think it's the first.

The smarter countries have learned that if you do the absolute minimum
amount of testing you can, you'll have nice low rate of infected people,
which is a good way to reduce the panic and keep your markets healthy.

The only downside is that your fatality rate will be really really high,
because you're only testing the most serious cases.


This information is three days old, which is an eternity in this kind
of thing, but the "fact" that the coronavirus fatality rate in the US is
10x what it is in South Korea probably has nothing to do with how deadly
the virus actually is or isn't...

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-2020-3

[Questor]

On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 19:44:01 +0000 (UTC), Howard <how...@yayoo.com> wrote:
>Boron Elgar <boron...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Sat, 7 Mar 2020 04:38:06 -0800 (PST), 61rr...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>>>Buying an R.V./Motorhome??
>>
>> No, darling, I prefer planes and hotels for my carbon footprint.
>
>Driving an RV anywhere interesting seems really miserable. Out West last
>year I saw a bunch crawling up and down winding mountainous roads and I
>struggle to see the point. I've seen them in cities a few times too, and
>that also seems miserable.

I've never RV'd, but it seems obvious that the pleasure and utility of an RV is
not in the driving, but at one's destination(s). Having a "home away from home"
is more comfortable than campling, and presumably less expensive than staying in
motels and hotels. Establishing a base for day hikes, bike rides, etc. seems
like a great way to explore and enjoy an area's natural attractions.