A nuclear attack would most likely target one of these 6 US cities - but an expert says none of them are prepared

[Leroy N. Soetoro]

https://news.yahoo.com/nuclear-attack-most-likely-target-191800231.html

A nuclear attack on US soil would most likely target one of six cities:
New York, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Washington, DC.

But a public-health expert says any of those cities would struggle to
provide emergency services to the wounded.

The cities also no longer have designated fallout shelters to protect
people from radiation.

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The chance that a nuclear bomb would strike a US city is slim, but nuclear
experts say it's not out of the question.

A nuclear attack in a large metropolitan area is one of the 15 disaster
scenarios for which the US Federal Emergency Management Agency has an
emergency strategy. The agency's plan involves deploying first responders,
providing immediate shelter for evacuees, and decontaminating victims who
have been exposed to radiation.

For everyday citizens, FEMA has some simple advice: Get inside, stay
inside, and stay tuned.

But according to Irwin Redlener, a public-health expert at Columbia
University who specializes in disaster preparedness, these federal
guidelines aren't enough to prepare a city for a nuclear attack.

"There isn't a single jurisdiction in America that has anything
approaching an adequate plan to deal with a nuclear detonation," he said.

That includes the six urban areas that Redlener thinks are the most likely
targets of a nuclear attack: New York, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, San
Francisco, and Washington, DC. These cities are not only some of the
largest and densest in the country, but home to critical infrastructure
(like energy plants, financial hubs, government facilities, and wireless
transmission systems) that are vital to US security.

Each city has an emergency-management website that informs citizens about
what to do in a crisis, but most of those sites (except for LA and New
York) don't directly mention a nuclear attack. That makes it difficult for
residents to learn how to protect themselves if a bomb were to hit one of
those cities.

"It would not be the end of life as we know it," Redlener said of that
scenario. "It would just be a horrific, catastrophic disaster with many,
many unknown and cascading consequences."

Cities might struggle to provide emergency services after a nuclear strike
Nuclear bombs can produce clouds of dust and sand-like radioactive
particles that disperse into the atmosphere — what's referred to as
nuclear fallout. Exposure to this fallout can result in radiation
poisoning, which can damage the body's cells and prove fatal.

The debris takes at least 15 minutes to reach ground level after an
explosion, so a person's response during that period could be a matter of
life and death. People can protect themselves from fallout by immediately
seeking refuge in the center or basement of a brick steel or concrete
building — preferably one without windows.

"A little bit of information can save a lot of lives," Brooke Buddemeier,
a health physicist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, told
Business Insider. Buddemeier advises emergency managers about how to
protect populations from nuclear attacks.

"If we can just get people inside, we can significantly reduce their
exposure," he said.

The most important scenario to prepare for, according to Redlener, isn't
all-out nuclear war, but a single nuclear explosion such as a missile
launch from North Korea. Right now, he said, North Korean missiles are
capable of reaching Alaska or Hawaii, but they could soon be able to reach
cities along the West Coast.

Another source of an attack could be a nuclear device that was built,
purchased, or stolen by a terrorist organization. All six cities Redlener
identified are listed as "Tier 1" areas by the US Department of Homeland
Security, meaning they're considered places where a terrorist attack would
yield the most devastation.

"There is no safe city," Redlener said. "In New York City, the detonation
of a Hiroshima-sized bomb, or even one a little smaller, could have
anywhere between 50,000 to 100,000 fatalities — depending on the time of
day and where the action struck — and hundreds of thousands of people
injured."

Some estimates are even higher. Data from Alex Wellerstein, a nuclear-
weapons historian at the Stevens Institute of Technology, indicates that a
15-kiloton explosion (like the one in Hiroshima) would result in more than
225,000 fatalities and 610,000 injuries in New York City.

Under those circumstances, not even the entire state of New York would
have enough hospital beds to serve the wounded.

"New York state has 40,000 hospital beds, almost all of which are occupied
all the time," Redlener said.

He also expressed concern about what might happen to emergency responders
who tried to help.

"Are we actually going to order National Guard troops or US soldiers to go
into highly radioactive zones? Will we be getting bus drivers to go in and
pick up people to take them to safety?" he said. "Every strategic or
tactical response is fraught with inadequacies."

Big cities don't have designated fallout shelters
In 1961, around the height of the Cold War, the US launched the Community
Fallout Shelter Program, which designated safe places to hide after a
nuclear attack in cities across the country. Most shelters were on the
upper floors of high-rise buildings, so they were meant to protect people
only from radiation and not the blast itself.

Cities were responsible for stocking those shelters with food and
sanitation and medical supplies paid for by the federal government. By the
time funding for the program ran out in the 1970s, New York City had
designated 18,000 fallout shelters to protect up to 11 million people.

In 2017, New York City officials began removing the yellow signs that once
marked these shelters to avoid the misconception that they were still
active.

Redlener said there's a reason the shelters no longer exist: Major cities
like New York and San Francisco are in need of more affordable housing,
making it difficult for city officials to justify reserving space for food
and medical supplies.

"Can you imagine a public official keeping buildings intact for fallout
shelters when the real-estate market is so tight?" Redlener said.

'This is part of our 21st-century reality'
Redlener said many city authorities worry that even offering nuclear-
explosion response plans might induce panic among residents.

"There's fear among public officials that if they went out and publicly
said, 'This is what you need to know in the event of a nuclear attack,'
then many people would fear that the mayor knew something that the public
did not," he said.

But educating the public doesn't have to be scary, Buddemeier said.

"The good news is that 'Get inside, stay inside, stay tuned' still works,"
he said. "I kind of liken it to 'Stop, drop, and roll.' If your clothes
catch on fire, that's what you should do. It doesn't make you afraid of
fire, hopefully, but it does allow you the opportunity to take action to
save your life."

Both experts agreed that for a city to be prepared for a nuclear attack,
it must acknowledge that such an attack is possible — even if the threat
is remote.

"This is part of our 21st-century reality," Redlener said. "I've
apologized to my children and grandchildren for leaving the world in such
a horrible mess, but it is what it is now."

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