Whats the current Solar Cell manufacturing capacity.
Mauried
replace all the Coal Fired Power stations in Australia with Solar
Voltaics.
Current Coal Fired capacity is around 20GW so to replace it with solar
needs around 60GW of capacity to provide 24 hour generating capacity.
Im not considereing here the storage issue as thats another prob.
60 GW needs 300 million 200 watt panels.
Leaving aside the cost issue, whats the worlds capacity to make this
many.
Power wise , Australia doesnt generate a lot of power , given its low
population.
If you apply the same sums to China , you get some very big numbers.
BobG
> 60 GW needs 300 million 200 watt panels.
The $5 a watt seems to let the manufacturers make a profit. So $300
billion.
Eeyore
Mauried wrote:
> Just as an interesting exercise, I figured out what it would take to
> replace all the Coal Fired Power stations in Australia with Solar
> Voltaics.
> Current Coal Fired capacity is around 20GW so to replace it with solar
> needs around 60GW of capacity to provide 24 hour generating capacity.
You have 8 hour insotaion at peak sunlight ???? !!!!!
I rather doubt it. Try at least ~ 90GW
> Im not considereing here the storage issue as thats another prob.
> 60 GW needs 300 million 200 watt panels.
450 million.
> Leaving aside the cost issue, whats the worlds capacity to make this
> many.
> Power wise , Australia doesnt generate a lot of power , given its low
> population.
> If you apply the same sums to China , you get some very big numbers.
Some time in the next few centuries probably.
Graham
R.H. Allen
> Just as an interesting exercise, I figured out what it would take to
> replace all the Coal Fired Power stations in Australia with Solar
> Voltaics.
> Current Coal Fired capacity is around 20GW so to replace it with solar
> needs around 60GW of capacity to provide 24 hour generating capacity.
> Im not considereing here the storage issue as thats another prob.
> 60 GW needs 300 million 200 watt panels.
> Leaving aside the cost issue, whats the worlds capacity to make this
> many.
As Graham pointed out, you've probably underestimated the number of
panels that would be required to do this. At any rate, the world's
current manufacturing capacity is in the neighborhood of 3 GW/year
(though production will probably be limited to 2-2.5 GW this year
because of silicon supply issues). This is up from less than 1 GW/year
capacity just three years ago, so it *is* growing quite rapidly.
That said, PV is likely limited to 25-30% of the power mix until/unless
cost-effective storage is invented. Until such a time, it won't make a
dent in the fraction of electricity generated from coal. Instead, it
will primarily replace peak-power generators fired from natural gas
(which is a better match to PV both in terms of price and how it's used).
Mauried
wrote:
The reason I posed this question is that there is a practical problem
that is going to need addressing, and thats what do you do when an
existing Coal Fired Power Station has to be replaced.
What do you replace it with.
There currently arnt many viable options other than a Nuclear Plant of
Gas fired plant provided there is the gas to run it.
Another Coal Fired Plant unfortunately seems the most realistic option
from an economic perspective.
Eeyore
Mauried wrote:
> The reason I posed this question is that there is a practical problem
> that is going to need addressing, and thats what do you do when an
> existing Coal Fired Power Station has to be replaced.
> What do you replace it with.
Nuclear it looks like.
Something like 85% of France's electricity is nuclear generated but I'll bet
almost no Americans know this.
Graham
T.Keating
>Just as an interesting exercise, I figured out what it would take to
>replace all the Coal Fired Power stations in Australia with Solar
>Voltaics.
>Current Coal Fired capacity is around 20GW so to replace it with solar
>needs around 60GW of capacity to provide 24 hour generating capacity.
>Im not considereing here the storage issue as thats another prob.
>60 GW needs 300 million 200 watt panels.
*
Current up time of US Coal fired plants is just over 72%.
Additionally they need extensive&expensive serving every couple of
years. (Not factored into cost equation below.)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat1p1.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p2.html
2005
2,013,179,000 MWh/ 315,556 == ~6,379 hours of operation..
6379/8766 == 72.7%
However.. Coal fueled power plants output derates by about ~7% during
the summer months. A figure which is likely to increase as GW kicks
in.
A second issue with coal plant, is not all their capacity is required
during winter months. (currently used for servicing intervals.)
>Leaving aside the cost issue, whats the worlds capacity to make this
>many.
*
Any entity which is producing and using that much PV will have their
own integrated manufacturing facilities on site. (with Mg silicon &
Al metal and Sand as inputs) . Such an Integrated facility could
reduce PV cost to under a 1$ per watt.
2004 Construction cost of Coal power plant
was $1300 per kilowatt..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_power_plant
or $1.30 per watt. A 2004 number which is likely to increase
dramatically once gasification or other types of pollution controls are
installed to sequester Co2 emission..
Adding in summertime capacity deration and up time into costs..
$1.30 * (1/.72) * (107) == $1.93 per watt (not including Fuel &
it's transportation Costs)..
Verses 3 to $4 per equivalent watt for PV with 2 to 3x higher peak
output and NO additional Fuel or transportation costs.