Re: Long climate cycles due to random cloud variance by Spencer
0 0N B Z
"Dawlish" <pjg...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:2c27d8cb-4622-4e64...@e6g2000vbm.googlegroups.com...
On Jun 2, 7:24 pm, "bw" <bweg...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> The main point here is that random cloud variations in the climate system
> can cause climate change. You don't need a change in solar irradiance, or
> any other external forcing mechanism
>
> http://www.drroyspencer.com/
Where's the mechanism to drive these random changes?
======================================
Here it is ....
Solar, Cosmic Ray, Global Climate Link Confirmed
29 July 2009
QUOTE: "A link between the Sun, cosmic rays, aerosols, and liquid-water
clouds appears to exist on a global scale," the report concludes.
QUOTE: All these consistent scientific results illustrate that the current
climate models used to predict future climate are lacking important parts of
the physics".
Billions of tonnes of water droplets vanish from the atmosphere, as if by
magic, in events that reveal in detail how the Sun and the stars control our
everyday clouds.
Researchers of the National Space Institute in the Technical University of
Denmark (DTU) have traced the consequences of eruptions on the Sun that
screen the Earth from some of the cosmic rays - the energetic particles
raining down on our planet from exploded stars."The Sun makes fantastic
natural experiments that allow us to test our ideas about its effects on the
climate," says Prof. Henrik Svensmark, lead author of a report newly
published in Geophysical Research Letters.
When solar explosions interfere with the cosmic rays there is a temporary
shortage of small aerosols, chemical specks in the air that normally grow
until water vapour can condense on them, so seeding the liquid water
droplets of low-level clouds. Because of the shortage, clouds over the ocean
can lose as much as 7 per cent of their liquid water within seven or eight
days of the cosmic-ray minimum.
"A link between the Sun, cosmic rays, aerosols, and liquid-water clouds
appears to exist on a global scale," the report concludes. This research, to
which Torsten Bondo and Jacob Svensmark contributed, validates 13 years of
discoveries that point to a key role for cosmic rays in climate change. In
particular, it connects observable variations in the world's cloudiness to
laboratory experiments in Copenhagen showing how cosmic rays help to make
the all-important aerosols.
Other investigators have reported difficulty in finding significant effects
of the solar eruptions on clouds, and Henrik Svensmark understands their
problem. "It's like trying to see tigers hidden in the jungle, because
clouds change a lot from day to day whatever the cosmic rays are doing," he
says. The first task for a successful hunt was to work out when "tigers"
were most likely to show themselves, by identifying the most promising
instances of sudden drops in the count of cosmic rays, called Forbush
decreases.
Previous research in Copenhagen predicted that the effects should be most
notice-able in the lowest 3000 metres of the atmosphere. The team identified
26 Forbush decreases since 1987 that caused the biggest reductions in cosmic
rays at low altitudes, and set about looking for the consequences.
Forgetting to sow the seeds
The first global impact of the shortage of cosmic rays is a subtle change in
the colour of sunlight, as seen by ground stations of the aerosol robotic
network AERONET. By analysing its records during and after the reductions in
cosmic rays, the DTU team found that violet light from the Sun looked
brighter than usual. A shortage of small aerosols, which normally scatter
violet light as it passes through the air, was the most likely reason.
The colour change was greatest about five days after the minimum counts of
cosmic rays.
Why the delay?
Henrik Svensmark and his team were not surprised by it, because the
immediate action of cosmic rays, seen in laboratory experiments, creates
micro-clusters of sulphuric acid and water molecules that are too small to
affect the AERONET observations. Only when they have spent a few days
growing in size should they begin to show up, or else be noticeable by their
absence. The evidence from the aftermath of the Forbush decreases, as
scrutinized by the Danish team, gives aerosol experts valuable information
about the formation and fate of small aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere.
Although capable of affecting sunlight after five days, the growing aerosols
would not yet be large enough to collect water droplets. The full impact on
clouds only becomes evident two or three days later. It takes the form of a
loss of low-altitude clouds, because of the earlier loss of small aerosols
that would normally have grown into "cloud condensation nuclei" capable of
seeding the clouds. "Then it's like noticing bare patches in a field, where
a farmer forgot to sow the seeds," Svensmark explains. "Three independent
sets of satellite observations all tell a similar story of clouds
disappearing, about a week after the minimum of cosmic rays."
Huge effects on cloudiness
Averaging satellite data on the liquid-water content of clouds over the
oceans, for the five strongest Forbush decreases from 2001 to 2005, the DTU
team found a 7 per cent decrease, as mentioned earlier. That translates into
3 billion tonnes of liquid water vanishing from the sky. The water remains
the-re in vapour form, but unlike cloud droplets it does not get in the way
of sunlight trying to warm the ocean. After the same five Forbush decreases,
satellites measuring the extent of liquid-water clouds revealed an average
reduction of 4 per cent. Other satellites showed a similar 5 per cent
reduction in clouds below 3200 metres over the ocean.
"The effect of the solar explosions on the Earth's cloudiness is huge,"
Henrik Svensmark comments. "A loss of clouds of 4 or 5 per cent may not
sound very much, but it briefly increases the sunlight reaching the oceans
by about 2 watt per square metre, and that's equivalent to all the global
warming during the 20th Century."
The Forbush decreases are too short-lived to have a lasting effect on the
climate, but they dramatize the mechanism that works more patiently during
the 11-year solar cycle. When the Sun becomes more active, the decline in
low-altitude cosmic radiation is greater than that seen in most Forbush
events, and the loss of low cloud cover persists for long enough to warm the
world.
That explains, according to the DTU team, the alternations of warming and
cooling seen in the lower atmosphere and in the oceans during solar cycles.
The director of the Danish National Space Institute, DTU, Eigil
Friis-Christensen, was co-author with Svensmark of an early report on the
effect of cosmic rays on cloud cover, back in 1996.
Commenting on the latest paper he says, "The evidence has piled up, first
for the link between cosmic rays and low-level clouds and then, by
experiment and observation, for the mechanism involving aerosols.
All these consistent scientific results illustrate that the current climate
models used to predict future climate are lacking important parts of the
physics".
http://www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=59890&CultureCode=en
Warmest Regards
Bon_0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
Australia Mining Pioneer & Founder of the True Geology
Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi right up to Texas Houston !
Dumped also in marshes all along the Gulf of Mexico
as well Mexico Guatemala etc will benefit from that manna too !
Professional estimate of buckling & slipping of riser over the BOP
( Blow Out Preventer), since that Lower Marine Containment Cap cannot
be secured except by pressure on the rods line, with by the way most
of the crude oil escaping at the present time too!
HENCE BACK TO SQUARE ONE SOON !
As for the 2 relief wells, who wants to bet 1 million quids than in
August they will hit target ?
I will not myself !!!
... and in the meantime thousand of workers picking tar balls with
hand gloves on the white sand beaches, wasting their time indeed,
since in LESS THAN A MONTH only front-end loaders will be ABLE to pick
them up by the ton
BUT THOSE FOOLS WILL TRY ALL THE SOLUTIONS THAT WILL NOT WORK, BEFORE
USING SUCCESSFULLY THAT ONE THAT WILL WORK & IN LESS THAN AN HOUR TO
BOOST !!!!
Jean-Paul Turcaud
Australia Mining Pioneer
Discoverer & Legal Owner of Telfer Mine (Australia largest Copper &
Gold Mine)
Nifty (Cu) & Kintyre (U, Th) Mines, all in the Great Sandy Desert
Exploration Geologist & Offshore Consultant
Founder of the True Geology
~ Ignorance is the Cosmic Sin, the One Never Forgiven ~
for background info.
http://warrigalpress.com.au/grule.html
http://users.indigo.net.au/don/tel/index.html
http://users.indigo.net.au/don/tel/nac.html
http://members.iimetro.com.au/~hubbca/turcaud.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/talks/bbing/stories/s28534.htm
"True Geology" Foundation Document
http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/69327
Bob Casanova
appeared in sci.skeptic, posted by "Australia Mining Pioneer
& Founder of the True Geology" <jptu...@neuf.fr>:
>Millions of barrels of oil to be churned & dumped on the beaches of...
<snip>
>BUT THOSE FOOLS WILL TRY ALL THE SOLUTIONS THAT WILL NOT WORK, BEFORE
>USING SUCCESSFULLY THAT ONE THAT WILL WORK & IN LESS THAN AN HOUR TO
>BOOST !!!!
So tell the group, what is the "ONE THAT WILL WORK & IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR"? Be detailed and specific, please.
--
Bob C.
"Evidence confirming an observation is
evidence that the observation is wrong."
- McNameless
Bob Casanova
in sci.skeptic, posted by Bob Casanova <nos...@buzz.off>:
>On Sun, 6 Jun 2010 20:39:24 -0700 (PDT), the following
>appeared in sci.skeptic, posted by "Australia Mining Pioneer
>& Founder of the True Geology" <jptu...@neuf.fr>:
>
>>Millions of barrels of oil to be churned & dumped on the beaches of...
>
><snip>
>
>>BUT THOSE FOOLS WILL TRY ALL THE SOLUTIONS THAT WILL NOT WORK, BEFORE
>>USING SUCCESSFULLY THAT ONE THAT WILL WORK & IN LESS THAN AN HOUR TO
>>BOOST !!!!
>
>So tell the group, what is the "ONE THAT WILL WORK & IN LESS
>THAN AN HOUR"? Be detailed and specific, please.
[Crickets...]
Yeah, that's what I thought.