EARTHQUAKE WARNING
DISASTER MITIGATION PROGRAMS
Posted by E.D.G. on March 8, 2012
Recommendations:
1. For Newsgroup Readers - Please circulate copies of this Earthquake
Warning to any earthquake research and disaster mitigation groups that you
know about.
2. For Earthquake Forecasters - It is recommended that you check your local
earthquake precursor data records for late March 5, 2012 and early March 6,
2012 to see if there might have been any signs of approaching seismic
activity.
3. For Disaster Mitigation Personnel - It is recommended that you keep
watch for a few weeks for possible significant earthquake activity. It is
also recommended that you take a look at the disaster mitigation computer
program Web pages referenced in Part C of this report.
The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion.
Some indirect Web page addresses are being used in part to keep the
amount of spam mail arriving each data at a minimum. If those addresses do
not work for someone then he or she can try contacting me by E-mail for
direct addresses.
REPORT CONTENTS
A. Earthquake Warning Details
B. Earthquake Forecasting Efforts
C. Earthquake Precursor Data And Disaster Mitigation Programs
A. EARTHQUAKE WARNING DETAILS
This report is an actual Earthquake Warning. However, the subject
matter is so complex that this could also be viewed as an earthquake
forecasting research report.
What are believed to have been solar storm, and either earthquake
fault zone, or volcano activity related strong electromagnetic energy field
signals (EM Signals), were detected at the following times, all UTC:
2012/03/06 07:19:00
2012/03/06 06:40:00
2012/03/06 05:54:00
2012/03/06 05:29:00
2012/03/06 05:11:00
2012/03/06 04:30:00
2012/03/06 01:58:00
And, the following picture is a record of recent solar and
geomagnetic storm activity as reported by the NOAA Space Weather site:
http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/images/warnings_timeline_25413.png
The EM Signal detection method I am working with is somewhat unusual.
And it doesn't provide much information regarding the actual nature of these
EM Signals. Quite a few different types of signals are being detected.
Some that might last as long as 20 seconds appear to have frequencies
ranging from perhaps 5 cycles per second up to 8000 cycles per second.
Others appear to be more like static noise pulses that last just a fraction
of a second.
The following Web page discusses a detector that was developed by one
researcher for monitoring some of those EM Signals.
http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Detector-3.html
The static noise pulses might be associated with small fractures that
could be occurring in fault zones around the world during the days and weeks
before powerful earthquakes occur. Something like 1000 of those static
pulses were detected between July of 2010 and March of 2011 when that
extremely powerful earthquake occurred in the Japan area.
The longer duration EM Signals appear to be quite a bit more complex.
Theories presently being tested propose that those signals can be
generated when geomagnetic energy associated with a solar storm, earthquake
fault zone activity, volcano activity, or hurricane activity, interacts at
very specific times with a fault zone where an earthquake is getting ready
to occur, or with ground or perhaps airborne activity near an active
volcano. And the solar storm activity picture file listed above
demonstrates that there has been some fairly strong solar storm activity
lately.
Mount Etna in Italy reportedly became active once again on March 4,
2012. So, that volcano would be a possible candidate for the source of the
EM Signals that were detected on March 6. However, one or more earthquake
fault zones where powerful earthquakes are getting ready to occur would also
be likely. And so, formal Earthquake Warnings such as this one are being
circulated.
TIME WINDOW INFORMATION
Fault Zones As The Energy Source - When the original source of energy for
these signals is an earthquake fault zone, as present theories propose might
have been the case with strong EM Signals that were detected on January 25,
2001 and with the highly destructive January 26, 2001 earthquake that
occurred in India less than 12 hours later, the expected earthquake will
likely occur fairly soon, perhaps within a day, after the EM Signals are
detected. That is not believed to be the case with the March 6 signals.
Solar Storms As The Energy Source - When the original source of energy is
solar storm activity as is believed to be the case with the signals detected
on March 6, the signals might simply be indicating that an earthquake is
getting ready to occur somewhere. And it could be delayed for days, weeks,
or even months. But in this case I feel that it would be a good idea for
earthquake forecasters and disaster mitigation groups to keep watch for at
least the next week.
There is a theory that solar storm activity can actually produce
physical and chemical changes in a fault zone where an earthquake is getting
ready to occur and cause the approaching earthquake to occur months or
perhaps even years before it would otherwise occur. And I believe that I
heard that some group in Europe is doing some research to determine if that
might actually be happening.
LOCATION INFORMATION
Determining possible locations for expected seismic activity with the
forecasting method I am using is a highly complex process. In some cases,
several fault zones that are widely separated from one another could be
involved with the generation of a single EM Signal. One fault zone could be
the original source of the energy. And that energy would then interact with
the rock layers in the other fault zone causing the EM Signals to be
generated.
My data indicate to me that when multiple EM Signals are detected
within a 6 hour period of time as they were on March 6, the signals are
usually pointing to the approach of at least two and perhaps even more
earthquakes. And right now the best that I can do for probable location
data is to refer people to the chart on the following Web page:
http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
Where there are line peaks on the 15 day Time Window on the chart,
the data are indicating that EM Signals detected during the past 15 days
were good matches for powerful earthquakes that occurred at those longitudes
going back to the beginning of 1990. So, other earthquake forecasters might
want to check their precursor data for fault zones along those longitudes
first.
B. EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING EFFORTS
The remainder of this report is being included here because the
report is being circulated to earthquake researchers and disaster mitigation
groups around the world.
There appear to be quite a few individuals, groups, and government
agencies around the world that are attempting to forecast earthquakes.
Unfortunately, it appears to me that they are largely operating
independently of one another.
At the present time, as far as I can tell, it is likely that there
are no forecasting methods that can be used to reliably detect the approach
of every powerful earthquake occurring around the world. However, data from
a variety of methods might be combined to indicate that there is a high
probability that a significant earthquake is approaching for a specific
location. No groups or governments that I know of are attempting to do
that.
It is my understanding that the People's Republic of China has an
earthquake precursor data collection program running that involves something
like 10,000 full-time forecasting personnel and a small army of part-time
volunteers. But the data that they are working with don't appear to me to
be available to researchers or the general public around the world. And I
am not aware of any Web sites etc. that make it possible for earthquake
forecasters in other parts of the world to even submit data to researchers
in China.
International disaster mitigation groups need to have access to
forecasting data that have been processed in such a manner that those people
can actually understand them. And those types of data do not appear to me
to be presently available.
In part to help deal with those problems, the following efforts are
underway to develop disaster mitigation computer programs that government
agencies, research groups, and independent researchers around the world can
use to collect, evaluate, and circulate earthquake forecasting data and more
general types of disaster mitigation data.
C. EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR DATA AND DISASTER MITIGATION PROGRAMS
1. Earthquake Precursors Related Web Page
This particular effort has not yet gotten underway. But, this is the
address for a Web page where the plan is to store technical information
regarding various types of earthquake precursors such as earthquake clouds,
earthquake lights, radon gas releases, various electromagnetic precursors,
and ground water level monitors etc.
http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Earthquake-Precursors.html
2. Web Site Based Earthquake Precursor Data Computer Program
The following is an address for an early version of a downloadable
freeware earthquake precursor data collection, evaluation, and display
computer program that is being developed by several earthquake researchers
including a retired professional computer programmer and myself.
http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Precursor-Data.html
The goal of that effort is develop a working version of the program
that can eventually be translated into a Web site CGI computer program that
will let people around the world submit their precursor data to the Web site
program via a Web site data entry screen or specially prepared E-mail notes,
and have those precursor data processed, stored, and displayed at the Web
site.
For example, people around the world who observed earthquake clouds
could submit those data to the programs. And their observations could be
compared with earthquakes that are occurring around the world.
3. Internet Sever Computer Based Disaster Response Program
The following Web page points to a discussion of an effort to have an
Internet based computer program created that could be used by governments
around the world to anticipate and more rapidly respond to a wide variety of
health and life threatening situations. Those situations could range from
serious automobile traffic accidents up to major aircraft crashes, floods,
disease outbreaks, earthquakes, and hurricanes.
http://www.freewebs.com/eq-forecasting/Disaster_Response_System.html
Versions of that proposed disaster mitigation program would actually
be running on a number of Internet Server computers and other types of
computers around the world. They would interact with and share data with
one another. And if one were disabled by an event such as an earthquake
that damaged the computers or damaged some fiber optics communications
cable, then one or more of the other computers would start doing the work
that the affected computer had been doing.
Information regarding events such as rainfall around the world would
be constantly fed into the system. And that way, devastating floods could
be anticipated.
Information regarding events such as aircraft crashes and even
serious automobile traffic accidents would also be constantly fed into the
system.
When the disaster mitigation program determined that there had been
an aircraft crash in a large city, for example, it would instantly generate
an initial disaster response plan and send versions of the plan to the
appropriate government agencies and hospitals etc. And it would also
contact specially trained disaster response workers in the affected area and
ask them to travel to certain locations and report on what they were seeing
or help with efforts to temporarily limit access to selected major highways
so that emergency response vehicles could travel down them at a high rate of
speed without risking hitting or being slowed by other traffic on the
highway.
Government, university, private corporation, and even independent
computer programmers could take part in the development of that proposed
disaster mitigation program. However, the actual program might need to be
run by some independent organization such as a nonprofit foundation.