TCPA Is Probably Going to Control Everything You Do On Your Computer, Unless Yr Totally CP!
Kevin Calder
I find this perversely exciting!
Just think about it.
Non TCPA data-havens situated in international waters, run by an
underground computing community which will actually be the underdog
again.
Sounds to me like the future will be more Gibson than the current state
of affairs, seen as how GameCopyWorld and Kazza have been pwning the
authorities for years now.
Imagine if all Case had to do was wait for Fairlight to release the
Wintermute crack.
Cmon, its not CP if there is no struggle involved ;)
What do you guys think?
zip,
--
Kevin Calder(aka ThePassenger)
Kay Abendroth
[...]
> Just think about it.
I find TCPA very threatening.
> Non TCPA data-havens situated in international waters, run by an
> underground computing community which will actually be the underdog again.
This sounds very cool, but who will do that and with which money?
> Sounds to me like the future will be more Gibson than the current state
> of affairs, seen as how GameCopyWorld and Kazza have been pwning the
> authorities for years now.
At least it will be the start of a real big gap between
trusted/controled and still free. BTW, I prefer second.
> Imagine if all Case had to do was wait for Fairlight to release the
> Wintermute crack.
[..]
Sourcerer
>
>
> http://www.againsttcpa.com/tcpa-faq-en.html
>
> I find this perversely exciting!
>
> Just think about it.
The above linked article is very much US-centric. It's reading of the
prospects and consequences of TCPA do not reflect anything like the
reality of the current world-situation.
> Non TCPA data-havens situated in international waters, run by an
> underground computing community which will actually be the underdog
> again.
Non TCPA data-havens will be called 'China' and 'India'. It will not be
the underdog.
> Sounds to me like the future will be more Gibson than the current
> state of affairs
It is looking more and more like a PKD future, than a WG one.
<rm>
--
(__) Sourcerer
/(<>)\ O|O|O|O||O||O When you're looking for something that doesn't exist,
\../ |OO|||O|||O|O it makes you crazier the closer you get to it.
|| OO|||OO||O||O -- R. Ebert
j3r
wrote:
> On Sat, 15 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> http://www.againsttcpa.com/tcpa-faq-en.html
>>
>> I find this perversely exciting!
>>
>> Just think about it.
>
> The above linked article is very much US-centric. It's reading of the
> prospects and consequences of TCPA do not reflect anything like the
> reality of the current world-situation.
But OTOH, the EU Copyright Directive is basically a copy of the DMCA.
THe rest of the post-industrialized world may be more balanced than the
US, but not necessarily by much.
[snip]
>> Sounds to me like the future will be more Gibson than the current
>> state of affairs
>
> It is looking more and more like a PKD future, than a WG one.
OTThirdH, "me too."
j3r
Sourcerer
>
>
> In <Pine.LNX.4.21.031119...@inanna.eanna.net> Sourcerer
> wrote:
> > On Sat, 15 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
> >
> >>
> >>
> >> http://www.againsttcpa.com/tcpa-faq-en.html
> >>
> >> I find this perversely exciting!
> >>
> >> Just think about it.
> >
> > The above linked article is very much US-centric. It's reading of the
> > prospects and consequences of TCPA do not reflect anything like the
> > reality of the current world-situation.
>
> But OTOH, the EU Copyright Directive is basically a copy of the DMCA.
> THe rest of the post-industrialized world may be more balanced than the
> US, but not necessarily by much.
Back in 96 or 97 I posted an article here about Microsoft's attempt to
sign a deal with the CCP that would give MS the code monopoly in
China. How times have changed...
http://www.nypost.com/business/11147.htm
...for example.
I do not think China intends to become a client of the US or the West.
Probably not India, either, and Asia, ex-Japan, will follow suit.
Western cultural (including computing) hegemony is over. I don't think
the intellectual property scam and its N gigs of ephemeral crap is of
much interest to the Chinese; if nobody accesses it, it is worth
nothing.
The ability to erase all docs created with pirated editions of MS
Office, for example, will only screw folks using the suite. It appears
that will not include at least a billion Asians. In fact, it would serve
the CCP's interests if TC did succeed here since it would encourage
Chinese not to use MS Office and to use the officially approved
products. Since the West, especially the US, would be more damaged than
China by a trade war (and since we've begun one, we will know this soon
enough), the odds are more likely that in the near future we will have
to conform to China's standards, rather than, as the article states, the
other way 'round.
TC is a perfect example of what I mean by stagnant technological
development since it creates a technology monopoly with the state having
a vested interest in it, "Wintelmute", which like the notion of
intellectual property itself has the goal of stifling development whose
outcomes cannot be predicted. If it succeeds it will pretty much end the
expansion phase of capitalism.
Having worked in banking, I know that the company bankers' fear most is
Microsoft, which they consider a competitor, i.e., they believe MS's
attempt to provide the sw interface between banks and their customers as
an attempt to steal their customer-base. As TC or its derivatives become
an issue, this attitude should grow more hysterical and spread to other
industries.
Kevin Calder
Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>On Sat, 15 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>> http://www.againsttcpa.com/tcpa-faq-en.html
>> I find this perversely exciting!
>The above linked article is very much US-centric. It's reading of the
>prospects and consequences of TCPA do not reflect anything like the
>reality of the current world-situation.
Yah.
As I understand it, a scheme like TCPA, is *already* illegal according
to EU law.
>> Non TCPA data-havens situated in international waters, run by an
>> underground computing community which will actually be the underdog
>> again.
>Non TCPA data-havens will be called 'China' and 'India'. It will not be
>the underdog.
Also Yah. A friend of mine told me recently that at its current rate of
growth, the world bank reckons that China could begin to outpace the US
economically by the middle of the century.
>> Sounds to me like the future will be more Gibson than the current
>> state of affairs
>It is looking more and more like a PKD future, than a WG one.
You mean they are going to make a big budget film based on a crappy
re-write of it? :)
On a PKD note, i recently snagged an etext version of Valis off DC. I
sometimes get Text2Speech to read it to me. V. disturbing.
But seriously, what makes you think the TCPA future is more PKD than WG?
I wonder if Ballard had it right when he said "The future will be
boring." :)
TCPA sounds pretty boring to me.
zip,
--
Kevin Calder
Kevin Calder
<rax...@web.de> writes
>Kevin Calder wrote:
>[...]
>> Just think about it.
>I find TCPA very threatening.
Yes, yes, yes. If I were forced to use TCPA compliant hardware that
would only run TCPA compliant software the only thing left standing on
my comp would be, uh, linux. ;)
I'm only typing this in XP right now because I'm to dammed lazy to
reboot. I'd quite like to be forced to never boot Windows again.
But, seriously, yes it is very threatening.
>> Non TCPA data-havens situated in international waters, run by an
>>underground computing community which will actually be the underdog
>>again.
>This sounds very cool, but who will do that and with which money?
Ok, so scratch the platforms, but couldn't these be countries who refuse
to comply with TCPA?
>> Sounds to me like the future will be more Gibson than the current
>>state of affairs, seen as how GameCopyWorld and Kazza have been pwning
>>the authorities for years now.
>At least it will be the start of a real big gap between
>trusted/controled and still free. BTW, I prefer second.
Well, I suppose this is a possible upside isn't it? Could TCPA actually
create more space for 'untrusted' developments to flourish?
zip,
--
Kevin Calder
Kevin Calder
>http://www.nypost.com/business/11147.htm
Lol.
The juxtaposition of the pic of Steve Ballmer and that of the Victoria's
Secret girl is a little jarring.
Do you think this means something?
--
Kevin Calder
Kevin Calder
>I do not think China intends to become a client of the US or the West.
>Probably not India, either, and Asia, ex-Japan, will follow suit.
>Western cultural (including computing) hegemony is over. I don't think
>the intellectual property scam and its N gigs of ephemeral crap is of
>much interest to the Chinese; if nobody accesses it, it is worth
>nothing.
Most people who I have talked to about TCPA think that it will backfire
in this way. I agree, I don't think that TCPA's backers have enough
clout (or at least they have underestimated the logistical overhead they
will have to manage) to achieve the level of dominance required to make
the system work optimally. What I wonder though is if this will create
enough space in the market for alternatives, if not 'undergrounds', to
flourish. I'd like to see it happen! On the other hand we might end up
getting stuck with a choice between getting dominated by the TCPA big
boys, and getting dominated by the biggest of the rest (potentially Asia
et al). Maybe the most powerful of the anti-TCPA completion would come
with their own comparable standard.
>TC is a perfect example of what I mean by stagnant technological
>development since it creates a technology monopoly with the state having
>a vested interest in it, "Wintelmute", which like the notion of
>intellectual property itself has the goal of stifling development whose
>outcomes cannot be predicted. If it succeeds it will pretty much end the
>expansion phase of capitalism.
Yah.
Also; I had always thought of the notion of 'intellectual property' as
being a mechanism for inflating the profitability of products that don't
have any obvious value to Joe Ordinary (and his small business Ordinary
Productions). I think this makes sense in terms of TCPA because it
allows big business to extract more money out of small businesses and
consumer in the form of variations on the 'administrative charge' theme.
I can imagine "format handling charges", "critical update charges",
"migration charges" and "component installation charges". Im sure the
marketing people at TCPA Inc. will be even more imaginative!
>Having worked in banking,
Some kind of uber-CP underground cyber-banking surely!?
> I know that the company bankers' fear most is
>Microsoft, which they consider a competitor, i.e., they believe MS's
>attempt to provide the sw interface between banks and their customers as
>an attempt to steal their customer-base. As TC or its derivatives become
>an issue, this attitude should grow more hysterical and spread to other
>industries.
If I were they I'd be aiming to put 'fritz' chips in TV's, Disc & Mp3
players, mobile phones, PDA's and that's just for starters!
zip,
--
Kevin Calder
Sourcerer
Poly reminds me to mind my manners and say "Hi" to all the altcp
regulars from our era.
Greets to The Passenger, from Sweet Poly and Sourcerer...
On Fri, 21 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>
> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031119...@inanna.eanna.net>,
> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
> >On Sat, 15 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>
> >> http://www.againsttcpa.com/tcpa-faq-en.html
<rm>
> >> Non TCPA data-havens situated in international waters, run by an
> >> underground computing community which will actually be the underdog
> >> again.
>
> >Non TCPA data-havens will be called 'China' and 'India'. It will not be
> >the underdog.
>
> Also Yah. A friend of mine told me recently that at its current rate of
> growth, the world bank reckons that China could begin to outpace the US
> economically by the middle of the century.
Between now and then, there will be a collapse of the global finance
system. It is something less of a toss-up who will recover from it first
and best. Odds are it will be China, imo.
> >> Sounds to me like the future will be more Gibson than the current
> >> state of affairs
>
> >It is looking more and more like a PKD future, than a WG one.
>
> You mean they are going to make a big budget film based on a crappy
> re-write of it? :)
That's not a bad analogy to our current Way Of Life 8-) 'Our Real
Life(tm) is a crappy rewrite of Real Life'.
> On a PKD note, i recently snagged an etext version of Valis off DC. I
> sometimes get Text2Speech to read it to me. V. disturbing.
Switching to and fro Valis and Radio Free Albemuth makes for an
interesting reading experience.
> But seriously, what makes you think the TCPA future is more PKD than WG?
I didn't mean a TCPA future, but the future -- really the present (the
future has always already begun): what better models our world of
debt-ridden hyperconumption: simstim and Tally Isham, or Perky Pat*?
The idea that society is divided into Geheimnistrager and Befehltrager
classes**; that our notion of the state of the world is filtered through
media controlled by the state and media hacks***; and that really we
long to make reparation****
Wintermute and the Tessier-Ashpools or Buster Friendly and his Friendly
Friends?
Maybe I see it that way because PKD focused on "Joe Ordinary", small
businessmen, shop clerks, policemen, artisans, workers, rather than the
demimonde types in the sprawl or media celebs. Even his dictators,
moguls, and celebs are human...sometimes even his machines are.
> I wonder if Ballard had it right when he said "The future will be
> boring." :)
Have you read High Rise?
> TCPA sounds pretty boring to me.
TCPA expresses the yearning of the terminally boring for predictible
outcomes. Bleah.
**********
* The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch
** The Simulacra
*** The Penultimate Truth
**** Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep
Sourcerer
>
>
> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031119...@inanna.eanna.net>,
> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>
> >I do not think China intends to become a client of the US or the West.
> >Probably not India, either, and Asia, ex-Japan, will follow suit.
> >Western cultural (including computing) hegemony is over. I don't think
> >the intellectual property scam and its N gigs of ephemeral crap is of
> >much interest to the Chinese; if nobody accesses it, it is worth
> >nothing.
>
> Most people who I have talked to about TCPA think that it will backfire
> in this way. I agree, I don't think that TCPA's backers have enough
> clout (or at least they have underestimated the logistical overhead they
> will have to manage) to achieve the level of dominance required to make
> the system work optimally. What I wonder though is if this will create
> enough space in the market for alternatives, if not 'undergrounds', to
> flourish. I'd like to see it happen! On the other hand we might end up
> getting stuck with a choice between getting dominated by the TCPA big
> boys, and getting dominated by the biggest of the rest (potentially Asia
> et al). Maybe the most powerful of the anti-TCPA completion would come
> with their own comparable standard.
Of interest is the entertainment industry suing its customer-base...a
kind of slow corporate suicide.
Back in the 1940s ASCAP (The American Society of Composers, Authors and
Publishers) performers went on strike for a larger share of royalties.
Back then, radio music was almost completely live, not recorded. There
were three "charts", Pop, Hillbilly, and Race. The ASCAP folks were Pop.
Radio suddenly had no music content. To counter this, they formed BMI
(Broadcast Music, Inc). Absent live performance and unable to use the
recorded catalogs of ASCAP music, they latched onto the other two charts
(many of the artists, being poor whites and blacks, had little or no
concept of intellectual property) and bye and bye created pop music as
we know it today, Rock, Country, R&B, Soul, 'sex, drugs, rock 'n roll',
youth culture, etc etc, while ASCAP pop got relegated eventually to the
career deathzone of Easy Listening radio.
That's an example of unintended consequences.
> >TC is a perfect example of what I mean by stagnant technological
> >development since it creates a technology monopoly with the state having
> >a vested interest in it, "Wintelmute", which like the notion of
> >intellectual property itself has the goal of stifling development whose
> >outcomes cannot be predicted. If it succeeds it will pretty much end the
> >expansion phase of capitalism.
>
> Yah.
>
> Also; I had always thought of the notion of 'intellectual property' as
> being a mechanism for inflating the profitability of products that don't
> have any obvious value to Joe Ordinary (and his small business Ordinary
> Productions). I think this makes sense in terms of TCPA because it
> allows big business to extract more money out of small businesses and
> consumer in the form of variations on the 'administrative charge' theme.
> I can imagine "format handling charges", "critical update charges",
> "migration charges" and "component installation charges". Im sure the
> marketing people at TCPA Inc. will be even more imaginative!
This is also a PKD kinda thing; everything, including the tea kettle and
the front door, needs a nickel slotted in order to work (if it works).
In a TCPA world we will not live our life; we will subscribe to it. I
expect this as the ultimate form of debt-management, where income, debt,
payments, credit etc spigots are controlled by the state w/ the corps.
People will receive their allowance from their salaries; purchases will
be monitored by AutoID tags and checkout line systems: "I'm sorry, sir,
but I cannot ring this up. You've exceeded your credit-allowance this
week" -- even if you have the cash to pay.
One subscribes and does not own things or even rent. It's a beautifully
insane system, a fantasy of cash flows. The unintended consequences can
be the foundation for a new genre of sf.
> >Having worked in banking,
>
> Some kind of uber-CP underground cyber-banking surely!?
Alas, no. I did research for a bank's lawyers. It's not as exciting as
it sounds 8-)
Sourcerer
>
>
> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031119...@inanna.eanna.net>,
> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>
> >http://www.nypost.com/business/11147.htm
>
> Lol.
>
> The juxtaposition of the pic of Steve Ballmer and that of the Victoria's
> Secret girl is a little jarring.
You're serious? All I get is an ad for real estate and a picture of a
stoop and what appears to be a kitchen.
> Do you think this means something?
If you're serious, it means they're placing ads according to the
location of the viewer, and I guess T&A stuff goes to you Brits (lucky
you), while we get real estate. Jeez.
Brett Gilmour
> On Fri, 21 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031119...@inanna.eanna.net>,
>> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>> >http://www.nypost.com/business/11147.htm
>> Lol.
>>
>> The juxtaposition of the pic of Steve Ballmer and that of the Victoria's
>> Secret girl is a little jarring.
>
> You're serious? All I get is an ad for real estate and a picture of a
> stoop and what appears to be a kitchen.
>
>> Do you think this means something?
>
> If you're serious, it means they're placing ads according to the
> location of the viewer, and I guess T&A stuff goes to you Brits (lucky
> you), while we get real estate. Jeez.
Why allow to ad image to be downloaded in the 1st place?
I have a `blacklist' of if ad image servers in my hosts file.
Here's how to do it:
Kevin Calder
Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>Poly reminds me to mind my manners and say "Hi" to all the altcp
>regulars from our era.
>Greets to The Passenger, from Sweet Poly and Sourcerer...
Aloha indeed!
Doesn't seem like so long ago, though I was quite youthful when I first
started misspending my time around about these parts, and I'm arguably
less youthful now. With the correct knowledge of my varying aliases you
can pretty much watch me 'growing up' on usenet, which is in my opinion
a more valuable resource than a rack of home videos. And luckily the
first hundred or so posts get less embarrassing every year :)
I don't think I ever asked *THE* alt.cp question though, not even in my
electronic infancy, so I don't feel that I'm doing to badly.
Anyway, long live alt.cp!
>On Fri, 21 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031119...@inanna.eanna.net>,
>> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>> >On Sat, 15 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>> >> http://www.againsttcpa.com/tcpa-faq-en.html
><rm>
>> >> Non TCPA data-havens situated in international waters, run by an
>> >> underground computing community which will actually be the underdog
>> >> again.
>> >Non TCPA data-havens will be called 'China' and 'India'. It will not be
>> >the underdog.
>> Also Yah. A friend of mine told me recently that at its current rate of
>> growth, the world bank reckons that China could begin to outpace the US
>> economically by the middle of the century.
>Between now and then, there will be a collapse of the global finance
>system. It is something less of a toss-up who will recover from it first
>and best. Odds are it will be China, imo.
My understanding of global economics never really made it past Adam
Smith, who I understand is now a little out of date, so you'll have to
forgive me for not understanding why global finance is about to
collapse. I'm sure we'd be interested if you, or anyone else would care
to post more on it though!
<snip>
>> But seriously, what makes you think the TCPA future is more PKD than WG?
>I didn't mean a TCPA future, but the future -- really the present (the
>future has always already begun): what better models our world of
>debt-ridden hyperconumption: simstim and Tally Isham, or Perky Pat*?
I take your point, but isn't it at least a bit of both. I think most
readers hailing from the UK would agree that the people making our TV
these days are just falling over themselves to switch over to simstim.
Television seems to be increasingly about achieving some kind of
perceived level of 'realism', which if it isn't simstim in terms of
hardware, is in terms of suspension of disbelief type simulation. Here
is a selection of tonight's viewing for instance:
17:00: Car Boot Sale Treasure Hunt
('Real' people buying stuff at 'real' car boot sales?)
17:30: I Want That House
('Real' people buying 'real' property?)
18:00: The Salon
('Real' people working in a 'real' salon)
19:30: Real Story
(I have no idea, but it sounds pretty 'real' :)
20:30: Changing Rooms
(One of MANY programs about decorating 'real' rooms in 'real' peoples
houses)
Rather than achieving 'reality simulation' by piping sensory data
directly into your brain, these programs attempt to overcome your
disbelief by being so fucking mundane that your brain is temporarily
fooled into to thinking that it must be real!
Hrmm, not entirely unlike the AI's gambit in 'I Hope I shall Arrive
Soon' either.
Well, I'm rambling now...
>The idea that society is divided into Geheimnistrager and Befehltrager
>classes**; that our notion of the state of the world is filtered through
>media controlled by the state and media hacks***; and that really we
>long to make reparation****
>Wintermute and the Tessier-Ashpools or Buster Friendly and his Friendly
>Friends?
Hold that thought, a reread is in order.
We should have us a badass PKD thread in a coupla weeks :)
<snip>
>> I wonder if Ballard had it right when he said "The future will be
>> boring." :)
>Have you read High Rise?
I've always thought it was a bit like a vertical Heart of Darkness :)
>> TCPA sounds pretty boring to me.
>TCPA expresses the yearning of the terminally boring for predictible
>outcomes. Bleah.
Bleah indeed!
--
Kevin Calder
Kevin Calder
>> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031119...@inanna.eanna.net>,
>> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>> >http://www.nypost.com/business/11147.htm
>> Lol.
>> The juxtaposition of the pic of Steve Ballmer and that of the Victoria's
>> Secret girl is a little jarring.
>You're serious? All I get is an ad for real estate and a picture of a
>stoop and what appears to be a kitchen.
>> Do you think this means something?
>If you're serious, it means they're placing ads according to the
>location of the viewer, and I guess T&A stuff goes to you Brits (lucky
>you), while we get real estate. Jeez.
Shit man, you jinxed it!
No ad at all today.
However I did get a refinancing pop-up.
Not the same at all really.
I suppose I could get The Proxomitron,
to rewrite my web traversals in real-time and substitute T&A for all the
popup graphics.
That'd be pretty cp!
--
Kevin Calder
alias
[snip]
>
>>If you're serious, it means they're placing ads according to the
>>location of the viewer, and I guess T&A stuff goes to you Brits (lucky
>>you), while we get real estate. Jeez.
>
> Shit man, you jinxed it!
>
> No ad at all today.
strange.. i never got one.
..advertising is for the weak.
http://www.ecst.csuchico.edu/~atman/spam/adblock.shtml
..
alias
Sourcerer
>
>
> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031121...@inanna.eanna.net>,
> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
<rm>
>
> >On Fri, 21 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>
> >> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031119...@inanna.eanna.net>,
> >> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
<rm>
> >Between now and then, there will be a collapse of the global finance
> >system. It is something less of a toss-up who will recover from it first
> >and best. Odds are it will be China, imo.
>
> My understanding of global economics never really made it past Adam
> Smith, who I understand is now a little out of date, so you'll have to
> forgive me for not understanding why global finance is about to
> collapse. I'm sure we'd be interested if you, or anyone else would care
> to post more on it though!
The system was established at the end of WWII when the allies made the
US dollar the world's trade currency (nominally, the dollar price of
gold). National currencies were controlled and did not travel and
international trade settlement occured in dollars. With the
demonetization of gold in the early 70s, the dollar became the world's
reserve currency, as well. It is the foundation of the transformation of
the US economy from an economy of production to one of consumption.
The US's major export is dollars with which it purchases commodities
from foreign producers. It is a sweet deal, since there is no
competition in the production of dollars (counterfeiting
notwithstanding). The US simply produces dollars to match the price of
the commodities imported. Since the cost of producing dollars is
negligible, the US gets its imports nearly for free.
However, the US has a vested interest in getting its imports at the
lowest possible price, because the domestic economy thrives on 'adding
value' between the port of departure and the WalMart. Therefore, the US
insists on 'free and open trade', meaning encouraging foreign economies
to be 'export oriented' thereby increasing competition among nations
exporting to the US, thus lowering the port of departure price.
The most important commodity for a modern economy is a finite one: oil,
which continues to be priced in dollars (so is gold) on the world
market. The oil producers who price in another currency (the Euro),
Venezuela and Iraq, as well as those that seriously consider it (Iran)
are, of course, at the top of the US shit list and have a future called
'regime change'.
The world order can be arranged in a hierarchy of states according to
how well their national economies can prosper under this system in
comparison to any possible alternative.
So, at the top, just beneath the US, are Japan and England; just below
that, the EU. Farther down are China and Asia ex-Japan and India. Then
near the bottom is Russia, and at the bottom are the oil-exporting
nations (the Muslim world, mostly).
The US intends to control oil, first to continue its pricing in the
dollar exclusively, and second to turn a finite resource into a scarce
one or not as we please.
The problematic here is that the growing new economies (China and India)
cannot continue to grow without easy access to the world oil market. If
the US succeeds in making oil scarce, it means the US can control the
development of the growing economies. China, for example would have to
become as compliant as Japan and England to US policy.
I believe China (and possibly India) has no intention of doing that, and
so will enter the world political stage in its own interests taking much
of Asia with it. Russia, a major but expensive oil producer, also does
not intend to be a US client. All these nations will attempt to disrupt
the global financial system to their benefit. The EU will play its hand
to create as level a playing field possible between the emerging
economic powers and the US coalition, which means the US can no longer
consider the EU states 'allies', since the levelling benefits the new
economies by default (and thereby enhancing the EUs diplomatic and
economic position). The EU, or at least Germany, has a community of
interest with Russia, as well.
Then at the bottom are the Muslim oil producers, who are looking for a
way out of the system. A way out has been offered by the jihadis.
The whole thing depends on the continued acceptance of the dollar as the
world reserve currency, which means acceptance of the role of being an
economy dependent on export to the US, which means recycling dollars
back to the US in exchange for US debt instruments (treasury bills,
notes and bonds). Basically, accepting a world order in which the US
sets the rules, rules by which the US gains everything for nothing, the
'nothing' being other nations' well being and independence.
Since the US (and also Japan, England, the EU) is closing in on the
demographic finale of its consumer culture phase, it cannot maintain
much less grow its level of consumption. Therefore, the US (or
Anglo-American) system can only continue to grow by dominating the
*domestic* economies of the emerging economic powers. Seen in this
light, the rest of the world (to the degree they are on the scale above)
have a vested interest in destroying the current financial system which
privleges the US and threatens their well being and independence.
<rm>
ghost
Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> wrote:
> On Mon, 24 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>
> >
> >
> > In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031121...@inanna.eanna.net>,
> > Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>
> <rm>
>
> >
> > >On Fri, 21 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
> >
> > >> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031119...@inanna.eanna.net>,
> > >> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>
> <rm>
>
> > >Between now and then, there will be a collapse of the global finance
> > >system. It is something less of a toss-up who will recover from it first
> > >and best. Odds are it will be China, imo.
> >
> > My understanding of global economics never really made it past Adam
> > Smith, who I understand is now a little out of date, so you'll have to
> > forgive me for not understanding why global finance is about to
> > collapse. I'm sure we'd be interested if you, or anyone else would care
> > to post more on it though!
>
> The system was established at the end of WWII when the allies made the
> US dollar the world's trade currency (nominally, the dollar price of
> gold). National currencies were controlled and did not travel and
> international trade settlement occured in dollars. With the
> demonetization of gold in the early 70s, the dollar became the world's
> reserve currency, as well. It is the foundation of the transformation of
> the US economy from an economy of production to one of consumption.
[removed much of post]
Also, just as an added bonus there are approximately 60 countries in the
world (not a large number on the whole, but big enough) that base the
value of their currency directly off of the value of US currency. Not
ins some abstract way via markets or trade, but directly. If the US says
there is 2% inflation on the dollar then these countries have 2%
inflation on their currency. Which is usually called something else but
could really just be "Dollar" in the native tongue.
I do believe most of these countries don't have much to say on an global
level and I have a feeling a good portion exist as tiny islands in the
South Pacific.
But still, it's a scary thought that some other country actuall trusts
the US enough to let it control it's local economy that closely.
I'm looking for the last list I had but can't seem to find it just now
... stupid move, put everything into boxes and only half of it seems to
come back out. OI.
ghost
~/~ Sometimes I forget to pray I'll make it through this fucking day ~/~
www.accanthology.com ~/~ www.bitstreamnet.com
take out the GARBAGE to email.
Sourcerer
> In message <Pine.LNX.4.21.031121...@inanna.eanna.net>,
> Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> writes
>
> >On Fri, 21 Nov 2003, Kevin Calder wrote:
>
<rm>
> >> But seriously, what makes you think the TCPA future is more PKD than WG?
>
> >I didn't mean a TCPA future, but the future -- really the present (the
> >future has always already begun): what better models our world of
> >debt-ridden hyperconumption: simstim and Tally Isham, or Perky Pat*?
>
> I take your point, but isn't it at least a bit of both.
Yes.
> I think most
> readers hailing from the UK would agree that the people making our TV
> these days are just falling over themselves to switch over to simstim.
> Television seems to be increasingly about achieving some kind of
> perceived level of 'realism', which if it isn't simstim in terms of
> hardware, is in terms of suspension of disbelief type simulation. Here
> is a selection of tonight's viewing for instance:
>
> 17:00: Car Boot Sale Treasure Hunt
> ('Real' people buying stuff at 'real' car boot sales?)
> 17:30: I Want That House
> ('Real' people buying 'real' property?)
> 18:00: The Salon
> ('Real' people working in a 'real' salon)
> 19:30: Real Story
> (I have no idea, but it sounds pretty 'real' :)
> 20:30: Changing Rooms
> (One of MANY programs about decorating 'real' rooms in 'real' peoples
> houses)
We see a lot of that, but our tv focuses on home improvement.
Tonight on HGTV (the belly of this beast)
8pm Designer's Challenge
9pm Date With Design
9:30 Design on a Dime
10pm Outer Spaces
10:30 Decorating Cents
It is very Perky Patish since it is about taking the reality and turning
it into a dream. TV professional home decorators are stars in the US on
the level, at least, of tv chefs. An incredible array of commercials
trail (or better, lead) this phennomenon: home improvement stores and
manufacturers, mortgage refinanciers, EZ home equity loan sharks, and
the growing number of debt management commercials ("How do I do it? I'm
in debt up to my eyeballs." goes one.)
The US domestic economy cannot survive a general rise in interest rates.
But that will happen, and a lot of home 'owners' will find themselves
'owning' illiquid real property with negative equity (with spiralingly
higher payments considering the trend towards variable rate mortgages)
in a dead market. Not to mention unemployment.
A possible surrogate would be a minned Perky Pat world for them to enjoy
in their hovels. The origin of Perky Pat is in the serial In The Days Of
Perky Pat (in Galaxy or World's of Tomorrow, I think), a post-nuclear
apocalypse story where Perky Pat (based on, I guess, Barbie) is the
tribal totem representing the lost golden age. PKD intended a religious
aspect to Perky Patism.
In The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch, Perky Pat layouts, of what
seems to be an idealized San Diego or Miami, are accurate reproductions
of the commodities of hyper-consumption miniaturized ("minned") and
accurate in detail. The colonists in their underground Martian hovels
organize their society around their layouts.
PKD adds a twist. There is a drug that moves the colonists awareness
into the dolls (Pat for the women, Walt for the men) and for a time they
can live inside the layout of the lost golden age, as forever young
hyper-consumers.
<rm>
> >Wintermute and the Tessier-Ashpools or Buster Friendly and his Friendly
> >Friends?
>
> Hold that thought, a reread is in order.
>
> We should have us a badass PKD thread in a coupla weeks :)
I'm onboard for that.
> <snip>
>
> >> I wonder if Ballard had it right when he said "The future will be
> >> boring." :)
>
> >Have you read High Rise?
>
> I've always thought it was a bit like a vertical Heart of Darkness :)
Har! Or Lord Of The Flies -- only much much better.
<rm>
ghost
Sourcerer <vag...@eanna.net> wrote:
The future of the realistate market may be on a precarious ledge very
soon. The recent drop in interest rates allowed the housing sector to do
fairly well in what was has been heralded as an otherwise pretty shity
economy.
The low rates dropped the average household income to get a 200,000
dollar loan for a house from 70k to 40-50k, once the rates go back up
it'll rise again. And it's already shown that with the loss of high
tedch jobs in general the number of people in the 70k range is much
lower. That sector of the market is nearly saturated, they're going to
have to go after the lower income families and that means smaller loans
at the higher interest rates.
Should be an interesting decade ahead of us.
FixinDixon
> soon. The recent drop in interest rates allowed the housing sector to do
> fairly well in what was has been heralded as an otherwise pretty shity
> economy.
>
> The low rates dropped the average household income to get a 200,000
> dollar loan for a house from 70k to 40-50k, once the rates go back up
> it'll rise again. And it's already shown that with the loss of high
> tedch jobs in general the number of people in the 70k range is much
> lower. That sector of the market is nearly saturated, they're going to
> have to go after the lower income families and that means smaller loans
> at the higher interest rates.
>
> Should be an interesting decade ahead of us.
Interesting to hear that the US is having similar problems to the UK.
We've just had 5 years of interest rates dropping to 3.5% and they
went up a month or so ago. The house market went pretty crazy for a
bit, with people remortgaging left right and centre. Now everyone's
running scared that the interest rates are going up 'cos they can't
afford them to go up past 5%.
The Passenger
> http://www.againsttcpa.com/tcpa-faq-en.html
I was then somewhat surprised to see MS listing TPM 2.0 as a mandatory for W11.
I guess they are in it for the long haul.
It will be interesting to see if MS make an exception to this rule for TCM devices in China. Place your bets!
Ander GM
slackware and text mode/fluxbox+rox (which I use on framebuffer mode
even with SDL2 support, I use mpv, mednafen and IF games... good).
As long as I have stuff like Bitlbee, the framebuffer and good SDL2
support, I don't care on future surveillance, there's lots of
"embedded"-ish to choose inbetween.
Also, there's ao486 for some FPGA's. NetBSD should run ok-ish giving
some good RAM chunk exits (~256MB).