Turkmenistan: The New Hermit Kingdom
Farhan Siddiqui
27 July 2000
Summary
The leader of a key former Soviet republic, Turkmenistan, has
isolated his country from the international community more than the
deserts of Central Asia. In addition to his adoption of the title
"Turkmenbashi" - "Father of All Turkmen" - President Saparmurat
Niyazov has recently instituted a series of new laws on banking and
education that will dramatically increase the seclusion of this
state, important for its vast supplies of natural gas. Iran as a
result, will gain in political and economic power in the region.
Analysis
Turkmenistan has always been Central Asia's odd man out. This year,
President Saparmurat Niyazov's cult of personality has only served
to deepen Turkmenistan's isolation. It began on Dec. 28, 1999 when
Niyazov proclaimed himself president for life. Niyazov's cult of
personality has become even more encompassing - and stifling - by
making both of his long-dead parents national heroes. Completing
the isolation, on June 21 Turkmenistan began registering and
monitoring all foreigners.
On the economic front as well, the president has moved to isolate
his country of 5 million people. Turkmen citizens were barred from
holding foreign bank accounts on June 21, and the last Internet
provider was forced to close on June 30. On June 20 Niyazov
announced a new policy: All potential university students would be
screened - back three generations - to filter out all but "the most
worthy" applicants. Students previously approved to study in the
United States have been barred from departing.
All told, these measures efficiently prevent most legitimate cross-
border contact, discourage investment and torpedo economic
development. Consequently, the West will not have much to do with
such an introverted regime. Already, two Western firms interested
in Turkmenistan's 4 trillion cubic meter natural gas deposits,
General Electric and Bechtel, have withdrawn their participation
from the U.S-backed Transcaspian pipeline project; now only Royal
Dutch Shell remains.
The question now becomes who else wants a take of the
Turkmenbashi's Turkmenistan? One possibility is the old imperial
master: Russia. Russia and Turkmenistan recently renewed a deal in
which Turkmenistan will supply Russia with gas. But in the long
term, Moscow is more interested in developing its own Arctic gas
deposits than paying high prices for unpredictable supplies of
Turkmen gas. Turkmenistan is cool on close relations as well. It is
the only Central Asian state not participating in the Russia-led
security structures in the region. Ashgabat has even refused to
join the rest of the regional powers in opposing the Taliban.
Kazakstan would like to use Turkmenistan as a transit state for oil
and gas exports to either the Persian Gulf or Turkey. But both
deals depend first upon the support of Tehran. Iran is
Turkmenistan's natural associate, if not partner, for a number of
reasons. Nearly all of Turkmenistan's population lies along its
border with Iran. Even under sanctions, Iran can provide
Turkmenistan with what few consumer goods the Turkmenbashi deems
appropriate.
More importantly, Iran is the natural choice for export routes for
Turkmen petroleum. Already one small pipeline, Korpedje-Kurt-Kui,
brings Turkmen natural gas to Iranian markets. Larger potential
projects include liquefying Turkmen gas for re-export via the
Persian Gulf and a large pipeline to supply Turkey directly via
Iran.
The price for this cooperation is clear - and seems one the
Turkmenbashi is willing to pay. Turkmenistan is to side with Iran
on Caspian issues. After all, the Caspian Sea holds one of the
world's largest concentrations of petroleum deposits, yet a decade
after the Soviet breakup, the legal status of the Caspian Sea is
still unresolved.
On July 25, Turkmenistan's foreign minister, Boris Shikjmuradov,
stated that Turkmenistan would never negotiate the status of the
Caspian unless Iran takes part. Previously, Russia had attempted to
band the former Soviet states together to defeat Iran's claims to a
greater share of the sea. Also, since Turkmenistan is still on
speaking terms with the Taliban, Ashgabat has the potential to be a
valuable contact for Tehran on Afghan issues.
Turkmenistan has efficiently severed its contacts to the outside
world. What few links remain go to Russia and Iran, and only Iran
seems to have any interest in or capability to establish more. It
is Iran, therefore, that will have the most influence over this
remote - but valuable - corner of Central Asia.