Re: New Alaska Senate Poll Reveals Lisa Murkowski Neck-and-Neck With Kelly Tshibaka

[Eskimo]

In article <svhd1v$ubl$1...@dont-email.me>
<governo...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Murkowski needs to hang by the neck. Until it pulls out of her spine.
>

‘It is an understatement to call that within the margin of
error,’ the pollsters wrote of the final vote count.

Anew poll out Thursday shows GOP incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski
in a dead heat to keep her seat against Republican candidate
Kelly Tshibaka, who has been endorsed by former President Donald
Trump. According to the poll from Fabrizio Ward and Impact
Research, commissioned by AARP, Murkowski leads on the final
round of balloting by a mere three votes among the 1,050 likely
voters surveyed.

“It is an understatement to call that within the margin of
error,” the pollsters wrote in their report, noting “10 percent
of voters did not rank either of those candidates in the final
round.”

The survey was conducted by phone with a +/- 4.4 percent margin
of error between Sept. 6-11.

Under Alaska’s unusual and complicated ranked-choice voting
system first used this year, the top four candidates from the
open-party primary compete in the general election among voters,
who “rank” their preferences on the ballot. If no candidate
receives a majority, or 50 percent of the first-choice ballots
case, the votes are re-tabulated again after eliminating the
lowest vote-getter. The lost candidate’s ballots are then
counted towards the voters’ second-choice pick, and the process
is repeated until a candidate reaches more than 50 percent.

According to the AARP survey, Tshibaka holds a 13 percent lead
over Murkowski with 43 percent of the vote to 35 percent, while
Democrat Patricia Chesbro comes behind at 13 percent followed by
Republican Buzz Kelley at 1 percent. Seven percent reported they
were undecided.

Kelley dropped out of the race Monday and endorsed Tshibaka, who
is also running with the support of the state party.

After eliminating Kelley on the second round of ballot
tabulation, the race remained virtually unchanged, with Tshibaka
in the lead with 46 percent to Murkowski’s 38 percent and
Chesbro’s 14 percent. On the final round of ballot counting,
however, Tshibaka and Murkowski are tied, with the incumbent
lawmaker edging out her Republican opponent by three votes after
Democrat ballots from Chesbro largely flow to Murkowski.

The AARP poll closely matches an internal survey the Tshibaka
campaign told supporters about on a statewide call Monday,
moments after Kelley dropped out of the contest and threw his
support behind Tshibaka. According to the campaign’s internal
poll conducted by Cygnal in August, Tshibaka leads on the first
two rounds of ballot tabulation, only to lose by 0.2 percent in
the final vote, well within the +/- 4.32 percent margin of error.

[READ: Alaska’s Ranked-Choice Voting Scheme Was A Plot To Save
Murkowski, But It Also Doomed Palin]

https://thefederalist.com/2022/09/16/new-alaska-senate-poll-
reveals-lisa-murkowski-neck-and-neck-with-kelly-tshibaka/