OT Coronavirus thoughts

[Bud]

Watching things play out with this crisis, and it seems to be the relative calm before the storm. It seems that here in Philadelphia almost all non-violent crimes have been de-criminalized. mostly because the courts have closed. This means you can take a shopping cart in a shopping center, load it up, and walk out without paying (I`m seeing this in videos taken in California already). This means two things, there won`t be goods for honest people and the store will close because there is no money to be made). I suppose at some point they will deploy the National Guard to the stores.

Random other thoughts and observations (most gloomy)...

Here in Philly gun stores have lines around the block, while some criticize this it is hard to see what they base their trust in their fellow man on.

The national debt will at least double. They have stopped shutting off people who don`t pay their utility bills, so people will stop paying, so when this is over the government will have to step in and pay this backlog.

Hospital beds will fill up with people in this country illegally. I expect before this is over there will be tents erected in parking lots (at least it is spring) filled with cots where you can get whatever treatment there is left at the time. It seems likely China will withhold antibiotics.

Looking at this overall, I expect the economic issues to be more devastating than the health issues. If you get COVID-19, you only have 3.4 chance of it being fatal, up to 15% for the oldest. But the country can`t exist on lockdown. Once the law stops being enforced the lawlessness is not far behind.

Stay safe as you can, everyone, because I expect this will get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

[Bud]

Some more information on the Cornavirus.

First, a video of Bill Gates, who comes off like a prophet...

https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI

Second, this excellent site filled with updated information...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The USA has jumped to the top of "new cases". I`d say there are at least ten times that number of undiagnosed cases. These numbers will jump expondentially.

[Bud]

Gates again...

https://youtu.be/9AEMKudv5p0

[Bud]

More gloomy prognostication from yours truly...

I`m afraid folks, I`m seeing no good indications from any direction. I see no reason to believe there is an upper limit to the infections, it jumps exponentially. In New York City, it was 11 known cases three weeks ago, to 18,000 a few days back and 45,000 now. I don`t know if anyone is familiar with the story about the rice and the chessboard...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Qz3EmCqKq4

This will repeat itself in every city as long as there is a single infection. I`m afraid the truth of this will be apparent in the coming weeks. So you might think, well, everyone is going to have to dance with the devil, and three people out of a hundred will not make it. But now I just heard the worst news possible. It seems (and this is early and unconfirmed) that people who survive can reinfect. If this is true, this is awful, because the lungs can be scarred, making survival of the next bout less likely. It seems possible to me that we could ping pong this virus back and forth among the populace until there are few, if any left. I`ve never been much of a proponent of doomsday scenarios, but math is math. I always knew how fragile thing really were, despite all our comforting illusions but I always hoped things could hold together until after I passed before the shit hit the fan.

[Ben Holmes]

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 16:49:26 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

Here is a similar bit of whining from a fellow kook written back in
2015:

"California, which produces 25% of American produce, will be
uninhabitable in one year. Two years at the most. The rest of the US
will have to resettle 39 million people."

All this goes to show is that believers are kooks, with an inability
to reason and use logic. And just as this kook was proven wildly
wrong, so too will Chickenshit.

I've predicted it.

[Bud]

You think it is reason and logic to think because this person was wrong about this issue, that I am wrong about this one?

> And just as this kook was proven wildly
> wrong, so too will Chickenshit.
>
> I've predicted it.

I`d love to see this prediction to come true.

Here is the video about the reinfection cases...

https://youtu.be/04vksCyEAyk

And unfortunately, my predictions are backed by data.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Right now, the number of known cases stands at 102,396. Likely there many times that number of unknown cases, but we can just watch that number in the upcoming days, and see how fast it rises. If I`m right we can expect bigger and bigger daily increases.

And you don`t have to believe me, you can see the computer modeling Bill Gates did five years ago showing what the Spanish Flu (a similar, airborne virus) would do if it struck in modern times at 2:30 here...

https://youtu.be/9AEMKudv5p0

[Bud]

This whole thing keeps reminding me of George Carlin...

https://youtu.be/uHgJKrmbYfg

The whole thing is excellent and worth watching, but especially prophetic is 3:40 and 6:05.

[donald willis]

I guess that's the worst-case scenario. Best case scenario: Someone said we'll all be flocking back to churches/synagogues/mosques on Easter. I certainly wouldn't bet on the latter case....

[Bud]

I can`t see a single thing that these kinds of optimistic projections can be based on.

The number of known infections in the USA last night was 102,396. This morning it was 104,256. How can going up be better? Every one of those people have the potential to infect others. Since you can walk around with the virus for weeks and not show symptoms but still be infectious, there are probably a like number of infected people walking around undiagnosed. It seems the virus can stay on some surfaces for days, pretty much insuring a constant stream of new cases.

If they do decide to lift the quarantine, it will be into a world much more dangerous than it is right now.


> It seems possible to me that we could ping pong this virus back and forth among the populace until there are few, if any left. I`ve never been much of a proponent of doomsday scenarios, but math is math. I always knew how fragile things really were, despite all our comforting illusions but I always hoped things could hold together until after I passed before the shit hit the fan.

[Bud]

Another good Coronavirus resource...

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Take a look at the yellow line graph in the lower right hand corner to get an idea how exponential growth works.

Interestingly, the media is finally putting out stories about exponential growth.

Forbes was on it relatively quick...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/03/17/why-exponential-growth-is-so-scary-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus/#5ccd1d734e9b

But USA today just today...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/28/coronavirus-cases-growing-rapidly-exponential-growth/2922091001/

The New York Times and The Washington Post also have articles about this.

I was telling people early on how this was going to be like a chain letter, everyone with it will give it to twenty people, and so on, and so on. I told a friend a while ago about the rice and chessboard story, and the other day he called me to tell me that it struck him as wrong, so he finally looked into it and he found I was right. If you start with one grain of rice on a chessboard, and double it on each square, by the time you get to the last square you have enough rice to reach the Moon if it was laid end to end.

But now, if the reports of reinfection are correct, you don`t just have a hundred people get it and three unlucky ones don`t make it. If the possibility of reinfection is true, people can be thrown back into that lottery time and time again until the odds catch up with them.

And don`t get me started about mutations. OK, I`ll start myself. With trillions of these virus microbes in existence, the chances of one mutating into something worse could become even money. The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 almost died out before it mutated into something worse that killed more than the initial wave.

The only bright spot I ever saw was that China was reporting a leveling off, with no new cases in Wuhan City for about a week. I thought "Great, we only need to find out what they are doing right, and copy it". Turns out the leveling off there is probably not true, much of the media was thrown out and people are smuggling out photos of thousands of urns. If a tree falls in the forest and nobody see it, has it really fallen?

[stevemg...@yahoo.com]

Bud: Re the "chain letter" spreading problem. From what I've read the "chain letter" is very limited, for most of us, to the people you circulate with daily and it's not going to be exponential for short periods. After all, most of us circulate/meet with the same group of people each day. The same 20 or so people. A small circle.

This is also why politicians and celebrities are at greater risk; they travel more, meet more people, interact with larger numbers of people who move around the world. Their "circles" are larger.

Granted, over time that small circle expands. Some of that 20 we meet with daily travel outside that group over time and meet with others. This is where the virus spreads. But this is why they have quarantines and self isolation: to flatten the curve over time, limit travel among our "circles", and give hospitals the time to deal with the victims.

Two key areas, it seems to me (playing doctor) to look at are: per capita rate of infections and per capita death rates due to the virus. As I understand, the latest numbers (from yesterday) indicate that we're doing "good" relative to other western nations. We're second only to the UK in per capita rates of infection and only behind Germany and Norway on virus-caused deaths per capita. That's among western nations.

Here's what I read: "The number of per capita deaths reported in the United States remains amongst the lowest in the world. As of today [3/27], the US has recorded 5 deaths per million from the Wuhan virus, one-fifth of the total in Western European countries as a whole. Only Germany and Norway are recording lower deaths per capita, and that is only by a small fraction."

Second: "Except for the UK, the US has fewer reported cases per capita than every Western European country. Some will argue that our per capita test rate is too low to make such a comparison legitimate. Since the number of per capita tests run in the US is now comparable or better to every European country other than Italy’s and Germany’s, that argument is losing weight. Tracking case rates over the next few weeks will tell us a lot."

"Next few weeks". Yes, it seems to me that the next 2-3 weeks will be telling us whether this is just terrible or a catastrophe.

[Bud]

True, in some respects. The twenty figure is, of course, pulled out of my ass, it isn`t a real number. There will be plenty of people who don`t infect a single other person. And then you will have your idiots, like those geniuses at spring break.

But social distancing and limited contact with others only helps in some ways. It seems the virus can stay alive on some surfaces for days. On money I`ve heard it can be hours, so you are rolling the dice if you get bills in change (pro tip, try to pay with cards or exact bills so you don`t get bills back in change. I`m not sure about coin change, so I haven`t been taking it). Right now the odds aren`t that great that the cashiers and other people who you must deal with will be infected, but that will change. Lets say there in a one in a hundred thousand chance a person a cashier waits on has the virus now. Soon the odds will be much greater, and every person the cashier serves, the cashier is buying a lottery ticket to infection. You going to stop going to store (the option may soon be taken away from you anyway)? You might not be as safe in your bubble as you think, if one person brings it into your small circle, just about everybody can get it.

I hate to come off as a pessimist (it is actually quite foreign to my nature, I`ve always been a skeptic when it comes to doom and gloom), but I`m afraid it is simple realism. I hope I am wrong about all of this, but from what I`m seeing this is the reality.

> This is also why politicians and celebrities are at greater risk; they travel more, meet more people, interact with larger numbers of people who move around the world. Their "circles" are larger.

True. And we can survive quite well if all those fuckers die. It the cashiers and the health care providers who are indispensable. And they can`t hide (although they have been putting plastic barriers up at my local Shoprite).

> Granted, over time that small circle expands. Some of that 20 we meet with daily travel outside that group over time and meet with others. This is where the virus spreads. But this is why they have quarantines and self isolation: to flatten the curve over time, limit travel among our "circles", and give hospitals the time to deal with the victims.

That is the strategy. But the economic issues are is some ways just as scary as the health issues. How long can the country exist on lockdown? The money the government takes in has dramatically decreased, the money it is putting out has dramatically increased. It is not feasible to maintain this. I saw it costs an average of $20,000 per coronavirus patient. And I don`t know if you noticed this, but many of our fellow Americans are idiots. It will hit the druggies and the derelicts hard, but not before they overwhelm the healthcare system. Don`t expect a ventilator by the time you get there.

I remember the conversation I had with my brother early on. I told him "This is going to be bad". He asked what I meant. I said "Let`s just say it was a little premature to widen I-95".

> Two key areas, it seems to me (playing doctor) to look at are: per capita rate of infections and per capita death rates due to the virus. As I understand, the latest numbers (from yesterday) indicate that we're doing "good" relative to other western nations. We're second only to the UK in per capita rates of infection and only behind Germany and Norway on virus-caused deaths per capita. That's among western nations.

Keep in mind it hasn`t really hit yet. Every major city will be what NYC is right now. This morning I looked at the total US cases and it was 104,256. It is now 119,682. Remember what I said about exponential growth, the jumps will accelerate as there are more and more people with the potential to infect more and more people. Isolation and self-quarantining help, they aren`t the cure. It`s great if we can keep people who get it alive, but it is the spread that is the killer, not the survival rate, and we are spreading at an alarming rate.

> Here's what I read: "The number of per capita deaths reported in the United States remains amongst the lowest in the world. As of today [3/27], the US has recorded 5 deaths per million from the Wuhan virus, one-fifth of the total in Western European countries as a whole. Only Germany and Norway are recording lower deaths per capita, and that is only by a small fraction."

This isn`t a competition. These are very preliminary numbers, it hasn`t begun to hit yet. NYC had 11 known cases a little over 3 weeks ago, look at it now with a death every nine and a half minutes...

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/nyc-coronavirus-cases-reach-nearly-30k-with-a-death-every-9-5-seconds/

This will repeat itself in every city. It hasn`t hit everywhere equally yet, but it will eventually.

> Second: "Except for the UK, the US has fewer reported cases per capita than every Western European country. Some will argue that our per capita test rate is too low to make such a comparison legitimate. Since the number of per capita tests run in the US is now comparable or better to every European country other than Italy’s and Germany’s, that argument is losing weight. Tracking case rates over the next few weeks will tell us a lot."

We already have the necessary data. NYC has provided it.

> "Next few weeks". Yes, it seems to me that the next 2-3 weeks will be telling us whether this is just terrible or a catastrophe.

I`m afraid I already know.

[stevemg...@yahoo.com]

But NYC is distinctly different than most of the country. A very densely populated urban area with mass transportation with a younger populace versus (generally) the rest of the country.

As to comparisons w/Western Europe: Sure, this isn't the Olympics where the low score wins the medal. These are just benchmarks to use. Let's hope they remain stable or decline (I have to think the NYC numbers are inflating them?).

In any case, don't underestimate human ingenuity. The virus may be adapting but so are we. It's a race. Just need time.

[Bud]

Here is my city, Philadelphia. Lets watch what happens...

https://billypenn.com/2020/03/28/use-this-map-to-track-phillys-positive-covid-19-cases-by-zip-code/

If my ideas about exponential growth have any merit, the city is poised to explode in cases in the next two weeks.

If your ideas about quarantining and distancing have merit, it shouldn`t be too dramatic. I will say the people here have been pretty good, not a lot of outside activity.

[stevemg...@yahoo.com]

My older brother and his family live just outside of New Orleans. They held Mardi Gras this year. Yes. He said the attendance was down but not by a lot.

Mardi Gras festivities are not just a one day event. It's two weeks of parades and partying.

So the distancing and self-isolation can only work if people follow it.

Our cities are sadly going to get hit hard. The 'burbs and rural areas not so much. At least for awhile. I live in Spartanburg, SC - county population about 280,000 or 350 people per square mile. We've had nine reported cases so far. No deaths. It was four last week.

Kershaw County, with a population of 61,000 and a population density of 72 people per square mile - 1/5 of Spartanburg - has over 640 cases.

Hell if I know what's going on.

[Bud]

Interestingly, I was just reading this...

https://whyy.org/articles/mutter-museum-is-reviving-a-1918-philly-parade-that-sparked-a-killer-flu-outbreak-2/

The Mutter Museum just happened to have an exhibit open on that pandemic right before this pandemic hit.

http://muttermuseum.org/

If you ever happen to be in Philadelphia, I highly recommend the Mutter Museum, it has the largest collection of babies floating in jars of formaldehyde that I have ever seen.

Also found this article about local places that were largely untouched by the Spanish Flu pandemic, apparently because of quarantining, social distance and disinfecting...

https://billypenn.com/2020/03/28/these-escape-communities-avoided-death-as-philly-succumbed-to-the-1918-flu-pandemic/

[stevemg...@yahoo.com]

No, I completely misread it: Kershaw had 64 cases not 640.

But yesterday they had 77 or up 13 in one day.

[Bud]

My understanding is that it takes a few days to get the test results (although this site says 4-6 hours).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/testing.html

My brother-in-law`s sister who is a nurse was tested (she had a fever), and it took several days for them to get back to her with the results. Thankfully it was the ordinary seasonal flu. Maybe they didn`t get back to her so quick because it wasn`t coronavirus, but I`m sure it was information she would have liked in a timely manner.

So the figures we are seeing are incomplete, possibly yesterday`s numbers. And of course this is only the tested people, and also doesn`t include infected people not showing symptoms. The number of people infected in Kershaw county could be a lot closer to 640 than 77.

[Ben Holmes]

On Fri, 27 Mar 2020 17:25:24 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

There you go, molesting children again.

I made no such statement.

But I will have to save this example of you labeling a fellow believer
"wrong." We see here the extreme amount of iron-clad proof that
believers require...

>> And just as this kook was proven wildly
>> wrong, so too will Chickenshit.
>>
>> I've predicted it.
>
> I`d love to see this prediction to come true.

You will.

[chucksch...@gmail.com]

Put your mind at ease, Bud, this thing isn't The Plague. Read the article about the proper way to look at death rates, courtesy of a pathologist. Click on the link from Powerline:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/death-by-numbers.php

[Bud]

We will most certainly see. i just don`t see what people base their optimism on.

[Bud]

Yes, no and maybe. In it`s current form maybe not, but the possibility of it mutating into something worse exists. Also I`m hearing reports of the possibility of reinfection, so just surviving it might not be enough. Why do people think it will stop, will it get tired of infecting people? The Spanish Flu epidemic lasted two years.

In any case, good to see you popping in!

> Read the article about the proper way to look at death rates, courtesy of a pathologist. Click on the link from Powerline:
>
> https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/death-by-numbers.php

I`m not seeing what should be reassuring in that article.

Not buying the "data" is not trustworthy" argument, except maybe from China. If anything, there is a day or two lagtime. And the nature of this virus pretty much insures that there are a lot more unknown cases than known. Every place with *some* cases will soon duplicating what New York is experiencing...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/29/coronavirus-new-york-city-preview-us-united-states/2931094001/

And the health issues are only part of the problem, there are the economic issues to consider. If we go back to work as usual, it will spread like wildfire. I`m seeing where it can be shown where one infected person has infected many, which would duplicate itself in every office in America.

For the record, I`m not that concerned *personally*, I think the chances of me getting it are around 15%, and the chances of me surviving it if I do get it to be around 85% (would be higher, but years of smoking- even though I quit 30 years ago -has compromised my lungs).

I hope everyone who has a better take on this thing than I do are right, I really do. I just don`t see it.

[Bud]

And now for something completely different, Norm MacDonald`s Bat Song...

https://youtu.be/rrhux_CZGRE

More Norm coronavirus comedy...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-skA4GhVX7k

[borisba...@gmail.com]

>
> Watching things play out with this crisis, and it seems to be the relative calm before the storm. It seems that here in Philadelphia almost all non-violent crimes have been de-criminalized. mostly because the courts have closed. This means you can take a shopping cart in a shopping center, load it up, and walk out without paying (I`m seeing this in videos taken in California already). This means two things, there won`t be goods for honest people and the store will close because there is no money to be made).

Well you're not an honest person. So you have nothing to worry about.

[Bud]

And now the plot thickens. Chinese scientists were caught smuggling viruses into America in 2018 and 2019...

https://youtu.be/ssGAS_JqMg8

Reminds me of the guy in 12 Monkeys...

https://youtu.be/2aARkYnAB8s

[Bud]

Also, new computer modeling project 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, even with closed businesses, social distancing and quarantining.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html#link-a737c70

[Ben Holmes]

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 12:30:38 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

Of course not. You don't have the ability to use reason. We've seen
that time and time again.

[Bud]

We`ve seen you offer hot air rather than support for your ideas time and time again.

Much of the country is on lockdown and the number of known cases of the virus has quadrupled since I started posting on the subject. Lets see you display you stellar reasoning ability against the facts I laid out.

[Ben Holmes]

On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 05:43:08 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

Don't need to. The coming months will demonstrate that I'm right, and
that you, as usual, are incapable of logical reasoning.

Just as the years went by without California becoming a wasteland.

[Bud]

You claim superior reasoning but refuse to show this superior reasoning.

> The coming months will demonstrate that I'm right, and
> that you, as usual, are incapable of logical reasoning.

What about what is happening right now?

> Just as the years went by without California becoming a wasteland.

Still sticking with that fallacious argument?

[Ben Holmes]

On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 09:00:23 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

You're lying again, Chickenshit. I *CITED* a claim that I disputed
several years before the proof that I was right could be seen.

>> The coming months will demonstrate that I'm right, and
>> that you, as usual, are incapable of logical reasoning.
>
> What about what is happening right now?

Your claim is about the future.

>> Just as the years went by without California becoming a wasteland.
>
> Still sticking with that fallacious argument?

You're lying again, Chickenshit.

[Bud]

You were right before so that makes you right now, is this that superior reasoning you are alluding to?

You aren`t demonstrating superior reason just by making a prediction.

> >> The coming months will demonstrate that I'm right, and
> >> that you, as usual, are incapable of logical reasoning.
> >
> > What about what is happening right now?
>
>
> Your claim is about the future.

Quote the claim.

> >> Just as the years went by without California becoming a wasteland.
> >
> > Still sticking with that fallacious argument?
>
>
> You're lying again, Chickenshit.

I disagree. Claiming that because what one person said on one subject turned out to be untrue than what a completely different person says on a completely different issue must also be be incorrect is about as fallacious as it gets.

[Ben Holmes]

On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 09:32:32 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

> You were right before ...


So you acknowledge that I've shown my superior reasoning...

So you lied.

>>>> The coming months will demonstrate that I'm right, and
>>>> that you, as usual, are incapable of logical reasoning.
>>>
>>> What about what is happening right now?
>>
>> Your claim is about the future.
>
> Quote the claim.

Too helpless to do a google search? Why do you think it is my job to
educate you?

>>>> Just as the years went by without California becoming a wasteland.
>>>
>>> Still sticking with that fallacious argument?
>>
>> You're lying again, Chickenshit.
>
> I disagree.

The disagreement of a liar means nothing...

[Bud]

You haven`t shown anything but cowardice and deceit.

> So you lied.

I told the truth, which you had to remove because you hate the truth.

> >>>> The coming months will demonstrate that I'm right, and
> >>>> that you, as usual, are incapable of logical reasoning.
> >>>
> >>> What about what is happening right now?
> >>
> >> Your claim is about the future.
> >
> > Quote the claim.
>
>
> Too helpless to do a google search? Why do you think it is my job to
> educate you?

Run, coward, run!

> >>>> Just as the years went by without California becoming a wasteland.
> >>>
> >>> Still sticking with that fallacious argument?
> >>
> >> You're lying again, Chickenshit.
> >
> > I disagree.
>
> The disagreement of a liar means nothing...

The declarations of a blowhard mean nothing...

[Bud]

Are COVID-19 deaths being inflated?

https://youtu.be/Qk5ZIlB9e2w

[Bud]

Remember what I said about exponential growth?

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/28/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-in-us-double-to-1-million-in-less-than-3-weeks/24133783/

Cases doubled in three weeks. One month ago there was a little over 100,000 known cases. There are around 328 million people in this country, so one in 328 people have contracted the virus. Likely if we didn`t close schools, businesses, restaurants, sports events, ect, the figure would be much more, and possibly one in a hundred would have it. This is the dilemma of reopening, it means the virus will do what it does best, spread.

[Ben Holmes]

On Tue, 28 Apr 2020 12:52:07 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

Yes. We remember your panic.

Sadly, the facts aren't lining up with your fears...

[Bud]

Cases aren`t increasing?

[Ben Holmes]

On Tue, 28 Apr 2020 13:04:37 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>
wrote:

>>> Remember what I said about exponential growth?
>>>
>>> https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/28/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-in-us-double-to-1-million-in-less-than-3-weeks/24133783/
>>>
>>> Cases doubled in three weeks. One month ago there was a little over 100,000 known cases. There are around 328 million people in this country, so one in 328 people have contracted the virus. Likely if we didn`t close schools, businesses, restaurants, sports events, ect, the figure would be much more, and possibly one in a hundred would have it. This is the dilemma of reopening, it means the virus will do what it does best, spread.
>>
>>
>> Yes. We remember your panic.
>>
>> Sadly, the facts aren't lining up with your fears...
>
> Cases aren`t increasing?

You're lying again, Chickenshit.

Beginning to hate the fact that your words are posted forever?

[Bud]

Quote the lie.

[Ben Holmes]

On Tue, 7 Apr 2020 12:16:27 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

So you were lying.


>> So you lied.
>
> I told the truth...


You contradict yourself.

How are contradictions the truth?

>>>>>> The coming months will demonstrate that I'm right, and
>>>>>> that you, as usual, are incapable of logical reasoning.
>>>>>
>>>>> What about what is happening right now?
>>>>
>>>> Your claim is about the future.
>>>
>>> Quote the claim.
>>
>> Too helpless to do a google search? Why do you think it is my job to
>> educate you?
>
> Run, coward, run!

Those were, of course, *YOUR* words. Sounds to me like you're
admitting your cowardice.

Seems appropriate, since your cowardice is so plainly obvious...

>>>>>> Just as the years went by without California becoming a wasteland.
>>>>>
>>>>> Still sticking with that fallacious argument?
>>>>
>>>> You're lying again, Chickenshit.
>>>
>>> I disagree.
>>
>> The disagreement of a liar means nothing...

[Ad hominem deleted.]

Clearly Chickenshit has lost again...

[Ben Holmes]

On Tue, 28 Apr 2020 14:45:28 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

wrote:

>On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 4:09:55 PM UTC-4, Ben Holmes wrote:
>> On Tue, 28 Apr 2020 13:04:37 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>>> Remember what I said about exponential growth?
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/28/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-in-us-double-to-1-million-in-less-than-3-weeks/24133783/
>>>>>
>>>>> Cases doubled in three weeks. One month ago there was a little over 100,000 known cases. There are around 328 million people in this country, so one in 328 people have contracted the virus. Likely if we didn`t close schools, businesses, restaurants, sports events, ect, the figure would be much more, and possibly one in a hundred would have it. This is the dilemma of reopening, it means the virus will do what it does best, spread.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Yes. We remember your panic.
>>>>
>>>> Sadly, the facts aren't lining up with your fears...
>>>
>>> Cases aren`t increasing?
>>
>>
>> You're lying again, Chickenshit.
>
> Quote the lie.

"Cases aren`t increasing?"

>> Beginning to hate the fact that your words are posted forever?

Dead silence...

[Bud]

You cut and run.

> How are contradictions the truth?

How can someone who cuts and runs be anything but a coward?

> >>>>>> The coming months will demonstrate that I'm right, and
> >>>>>> that you, as usual, are incapable of logical reasoning.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> What about what is happening right now?
> >>>>
> >>>> Your claim is about the future.
> >>>
> >>> Quote the claim.
> >>
> >> Too helpless to do a google search? Why do you think it is my job to
> >> educate you?
> >
> > Run, coward, run!
>
>
> Those were, of course, *YOUR* words.

The words you are afraid to quote?

> Sounds to me like you're
> admitting your cowardice.
>
> Seems appropriate, since your cowardice is so plainly obvious...

You haven`t made a valid argument against anything I`ve said.

[Bud]

Explain how that is a lie.

> >> Beginning to hate the fact that your words are posted forever?
>
>
> Dead silence...

You seem to be struggling with words I used but you are afraid to say what those words are.

[Bud]

Possible good news...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/29/848034963/antiviral-drug-remdesivir-shows-promise-for-treating-coronavirus-in-nih-study

[Ben Holmes]

On Fri, 1 May 2020 12:15:37 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

wrote:

>On Thursday, April 30, 2020 at 1:47:39 PM UTC-4, Ben Holmes wrote:
>> On Tue, 28 Apr 2020 14:45:28 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>On Tuesday, April 28, 2020 at 4:09:55 PM UTC-4, Ben Holmes wrote:
>>>> On Tue, 28 Apr 2020 13:04:37 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>>> Remember what I said about exponential growth?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/28/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-in-us-double-to-1-million-in-less-than-3-weeks/24133783/
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Cases doubled in three weeks. One month ago there was a little over 100,000 known cases. There are around 328 million people in this country, so one in 328 people have contracted the virus. Likely if we didn`t close schools, businesses, restaurants, sports events, ect, the figure would be much more, and possibly one in a hundred would have it. This is the dilemma of reopening, it means the virus will do what it does best, spread.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Yes. We remember your panic.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Sadly, the facts aren't lining up with your fears...
>>>>>
>>>>> Cases aren`t increasing?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> You're lying again, Chickenshit.
>>>
>>> Quote the lie.
>>
>> "Cases aren`t increasing?"
>
> Explain how that is a lie.

Why do you think it is my job to educate you?

>>>> Beginning to hate the fact that your words are posted forever?
>>
>> Dead silence...
>
> You seem to be struggling with words I used but you are afraid to
> say what those words are.

And yet, I quoted them.

[Ben Holmes]

On Fri, 1 May 2020 12:12:45 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

How so?

>> How are contradictions the truth?
>
> How can someone who cuts and runs be anything but a coward?

Begged.

>>>>>>>> The coming months will demonstrate that I'm right, and
>>>>>>>> that you, as usual, are incapable of logical reasoning.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> What about what is happening right now?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Your claim is about the future.
>>>>>
>>>>> Quote the claim.
>>>>
>>>> Too helpless to do a google search? Why do you think it is my job to
>>>> educate you?
>>>
>>> Run, coward, run!
>>
>> Those were, of course, *YOUR* words.
>
> The words you are afraid to quote?

Denying your own words now, Chickenshit?

>> Sounds to me like you're
>> admitting your cowardice.
>>
>> Seems appropriate, since your cowardice is so plainly obvious...
>
> You haven`t made a valid argument against anything I`ve said.

How so?

[Ben Holmes]

On Fri, 1 May 2020 12:16:23 -0700 (PDT), Bud <sirs...@fast.net>

Bad news for your faulty predictions.