On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 3:45:57 PM UTC-4, donald willis wrote:
> Population of Dallas c1963: 700,000.
>
> Lee H. Oswald, a loner, doesn't know that many people there
>
> The one time he takes the bus in the middle of the day
>
> One of the few people he knows takes the same bus, at the same time
>
> Sure.
>
> What are the odds?
Your subject line invites an obvious retort. So obvious, there is no reason actually to use it.
But as to your intended question, the odds are slim to none before the fact. After the fact, the odds are 100%.
Because it happened.
Extremely unlikely things happen every day.
For example, the most recent Super Bowl ended with the final score of 23-20. How unlikely is that? Before the fact, if you predicted that particular final score, you probably could have won thousands on a one-dollar bet. After the fact, nobody would take your bet, because it already happened and the final score is already determined.
Another example, open your local Sunday paper to the obituary page. There will be stories about local residents who recently died. Before the fact, if you predicted all those people who didn't even know each other and maybe grew up hundreds or thousands from your locality and were born decades apart would appear on the obituary page on the same day, you'd be hailed as a psychic. After the fact, there's nothing remarkable about it at all.
Ditto with your example. First off, you make an unproven assumption, this one:
"The one time he [Oswald] takes the bus in the middle of the day".
Secondly, you confuse the 'before the fact' odds with the 'after the fact' odds. If it wasn't Mary Bledsoe seeing hm on the bus, maybe he takes a cab driven by an ex-Marine in his same squadron, maybe one of the roommates at the rooming house happens to be a third-grade classmate. Whatever. Unlikely things happen every day.
But the evidence is solid that Oswald boarded the same bus that Bledsoe was already on (FYI, your assertion suggests they boarded the same bus at the same time, and that too is wrong: "One of the few people he knows takes the same bus, at the same time").
These are the facts that make the case Bledsoe saw Oswald on the bus solid:
1 - Bledsoe came forward the next day to claim she saw him get on the bus and then off the bus after a few blocks. As Bud pointed out, she had no way of knowing at that early date whether Oswald might have a solid alibi for the time she claimed to see Oswald after the assassination. Her claim could have been exposed as a falsehood almost immediately. There was no reason for her to lie about seeing Oswald.
2 - The Dallas police and the FBI agents reported Oswald, while being interrogated, told essentially the same story of boarding a bus and then abandoning it when it got stuck in traffic. Of course, critics claim the police were lying about what Oswald said.
3 - A bus transfer with a unique punch mark was claimed to be found on Oswald by other police officers. The bus driver was found through that unique punch, and he claimed to give out only two on that particular trip - one to a woman and one to a man. He claimed the two people left within seconds of each other after the bus got stopped in traffic. Of course, critics claim he was lying or mistaken as well.
All those people were lying in your scenario to put Oswald on a bus? Why? To what end?
To put Oswald on a bus? Why? Riding a bus was not a crime.
Let's point that out again: Riding a bus was not a crime.
So this instance of him being seen on a bus by someone acquainted with him does nothing to establish his guilt or innocence in the assassination of the President or the killing of Officer Tippit.
And, of course, we know Oswald took some sort of motorized conveyance to travel between the Depository and the rooming house.
We know that because of the times and distances involved.
Since Oswald was reported being seen at the boarding house "about one o'clock," in any case, so we know he got there by then. Of course, critics suggest the rooming house attendant who reported seeing Oswald there on the *afternoon* of the assassination was also lying. But this is yet another claim Oswald made in custody, according to several of his interrogators from several law enforcement agencies.
And, of course, Oswald was arrested before two o'clock on the day of the assassination at the Texas Theatre after being seen within the Depository about 12:32. Again, these are the facts. Thus far, critics haven't suggested Oswald wasn't arrested at the theatre, as far as I know, but they do claim a separate arrest of another individual who looked like Oswald taken out the back of the theatre.
But being at the Depository after the assassination and at the theatre before two o'clock certainly implies taking public transit of some sort, whether a bus or a cab (or as the evidence suggests, both) because the distance between the Depository and the Theatre (with a stop in between at the rooming house) are too great to travel on foot in the time allotted, as Oswald did not own a car.