Psychohistory and psychology in general
ro...@md2.huji.ac.il
I've just begun reading Asimov's Foundation and Empire series. I think it's
really great, and would like to share a few opinions about it.
Does anyone think the future will really be that way? Maybe.
Do you think that psycho-history exists? I mean, that you can predict the
responses of several billions of people over a millenium? I think so. It
calls for you to be a determinist, and I am. Maybe there will be a science
that will allow to predict the reactions of a single human being... It would
have to calculate an enormous amount of variables, though. Actually, if that is
possible, it would also be possible to program a computer program which would
react EXACTLY like a human being would! Put that in a humanoid body and you've
got a fellow human...
Maybe that's a kind of future Asimov relates in the Robot Novels...
Let me have some thoughts on the subject,
Luiz Felipe L. Perrone
ro...@md2.huji.ac.il writes:
>Does anyone think the future will really be that way? Maybe.
>Do you think that psycho-history exists? I mean, that you can predict the
>responses of several billions of people over a millenium? I think so.
I'm finishing "Forward the Foundation" right now and in this one Asimov
talks about chaos. Chaos has proven to be VERY tough to study but still
it has been the object of many good people's attention. I believe that
if you step back and try to view humankind as one big mass you get a picture
somehow like a cloud with lots of water molecules inside. How these particles
behave under the known laws of physics is not difficult to understand, but
to be able to predict how the cloud as a whole behaves is another matter.
Chaos might be a good start in the direction of something like psychohistory.
So maybe you could expect to see it come into being in the future.
But then again, I never said that human beings are as easy to analyse as
a water molecule. Individually, humans are extremely complex, but maybe
big big crowds are simpler to study. For now we can just dream.
--
Felipe Perrone "Was ich kann und was ich konnte
College of William and Mary Weiss ich gar nicht mehr
Gib mir wieder etwas Schones
Zieh mich aus dem Meer"
The Sisters of Mercy
Trevor Bradley
> ro...@md2.huji.ac.il writes:
>>Does anyone think the future will really be that way? Maybe.
>>Do you think that psycho-history exists? I mean, that you can predict the
>>responses of several billions of people over a millenium? I think so.
> I'm finishing "Forward the Foundation" right now and in this one Asimov
>talks about chaos. Chaos has proven to be VERY tough to study but still
>it has been the object of many good people's attention. I believe that
>if you step back and try to view humankind as one big mass you get a picture
>somehow like a cloud with lots of water molecules inside. How these particles
>behave under the known laws of physics is not difficult to understand, but
>to be able to predict how the cloud as a whole behaves is another matter.
>Chaos might be a good start in the direction of something like psychohistory.
>So maybe you could expect to see it come into being in the future.
>But then again, I never said that human beings are as easy to analyse as
>a water molecule. Individually, humans are extremely complex, but maybe
>big big crowds are simpler to study. For now we can just dream.
At best, you'll get something like weather prediction, very good
prediction of the near future, horrible prediction of the far future.
--
Trevor Bradley (bra...@gh1.hia.nrc.ca) (Work) | (tbra...@sfu.ca) (School)
Spectroscopy, Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics | Simon Fraser University
National Research Council, Ottawa, CANADA! | Burnaby, B.C., CANADA!
Christian Almgren
> ro...@md2.huji.ac.il writes:
>>Does anyone think the future will really be that way? Maybe.
>>Do you think that psycho-history exists? I mean, that you can predict the
>>responses of several billions of people over a millenium? I think so.
> I'm finishing "Forward the Foundation" right now and in this one Asimov
Excuse a very stupid question. But is "Forward the foundation" a new bokk by Asimov?
Isn't he dead? How could he write it? Did they fins it in his safe after he died, or does his wife just take som notes and make a boolk of it?
--
-Christian Almgren Internet: d93...@nada.kth.se
Who am I? Why am I here? Forget the questions! Someone gimme another beer!
"Meatloaf"
Alan T Shutko
: > I'm finishing "Forward the Foundation" right now and in this one Asimov
: Excuse a very stupid question. But is "Forward the foundation" a new bokk by Asimov?
: Isn't he dead? How could he write it? Did they fins it in his safe after he died, or does his wife just take som notes and make a boolk of it?
Well, this is Isaac Asimov. He had a lot of books in the pipeline
when he died.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Alan Shutko: Militant Amiga and Star Wars freak! at...@cec1.wustl.edu
Don't be a snob. Never lie when truth is more profitable.
Carl Seiler
Alan T Shutko <at...@cec2.wustl.edu> wrote:
>Christian Almgren (d93...@mumrik.nada.kth.se) wrote:
>
>: Excuse a very stupid question. But is "Forward the foundation" a new bokk by Asimov?
>: Isn't he dead? How could he write it? Did they fins it in his safe after he died, or does his wife just take som notes and make a boolk of it?
>
>Well, this is Isaac Asimov. He had a lot of books in the pipeline
>when he died.
Somebody mentioned that Forward says a lot about chaos. I don't recall
chaos or the concept being used much when I read Forward back in '91. At
that time, it seemed more concerned with the relationship between Hari,
Daneel and the emperor on the one hand, and concerned with Raich, Hari,
and some insurgent(s) on the other. The concept of psychohistory seemed
to take the back seat. ...or did I forget part of the novella.
Apparently Forward has now been released in novel form. How much of it was
completed before the Good Doctor left us, and how much was added by Janet?
I assume most of the concepts were Isaac's.
Carl
P.S. I read the three Galactic novels again this summer. Talk about
forgetting. It was like I was reading them for the first time. I don't
think they are the best, but they are certainly highly enjoyable.
--
--
Leslie Carl Seiler | Texas A&M Geography
lcs...@tamsun.tamu.edu | This sig for identification purposes only.
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Luiz Felipe L. Perrone
>Somebody mentioned that Forward says a lot about chaos. I don't recall
>chaos or the concept being used much when I read Forward back in '91. At
>that time, it seemed more concerned with the relationship between Hari,
>Daneel and the emperor on the one hand, and concerned with Raich, Hari,
>and some insurgent(s) on the other. The concept of psychohistory seemed
>to take the back seat. ...or did I forget part of the novella.
Certainly chaos did not take the front seat. But then again psychohistory
was never explained in full detail either. The big thing I always found in
the Foundation series was that Asimov could talk a lot about this new science
without saying much. After all, it is fiction, right ? But he does give some
ideas on how it could possibly develop.
Remember that in "Forward...", one of the major developments in
psychohistory happens when the ingenious Elar comes up with the achaotic
equations. This suggests that the big problem that Seldon and Amaryl
had was how to analyse the chaotic equations that defined the system.
There you have it. I'm not sure how much of this is inference and how
much is fact. But this was my feeling after reading...
Christopher M. Ericksen
and psych.. by Alan T Shu...@cec2.wustl
> when he died.
Do you know what other books were "in the pipeline"?
Chris Ericksen
ce...@andrew.cmu.edu
Bad Bob
> Christian Almgren (d93...@mumrik.nada.kth.se) wrote:
> : > I'm finishing "Forward the Foundation" right now and in this one Asimov
>
> : Excuse a very stupid question. But is "Forward the foundation" a new bokk b
> : Isn't he dead? How could he write it? Did they fins it in his safe after he
>
> Well, this is Isaac Asimov. He had a lot of books in the pipeline
> when he died.
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
> Alan Shutko: Militant Amiga and Star Wars freak! at...@cec1.wustl.edu
> Don't be a snob. Never lie when truth is more profitable.
This one was finished a week before he died and the rights for the
publication were being disputed in the courts for a year.
Andy Nicola
>Somebody mentioned that Forward says a lot about chaos. I don't recall
>chaos or the concept being used much when I read Forward back in '91. At
>that time, it seemed more concerned with the relationship between Hari,
>Daneel and the emperor on the one hand, and concerned with Raich, Hari,
>and some insurgent(s) on the other. The concept of psychohistory seemed
>to take the back seat. ...or did I forget part of the novella.
_Forward the Foundation_ was just released as a novel in the spring of
this year! How could you have read something 'back in '91'? And what is
this novella you are refering to?
regards, Andy
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