The elite have been brain-washed into believing there are too many people using too much stuff. Reducing population to 0.5 billion from 7.1 billion today is paramount in their mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSlB1nW4S54
The idea that we should use our technology to go off-world and expand our biosphere to the other planets and the stars is considered pornographic to most respected scientists on this subject, and in fact a form of madness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Dzi3GyU5zY
So, the most capable, most clever, most dedicated folks in the world are being turned against the rabble and organizing to destroy them.
When you organize to destroy *anything* it responds. A bacterium becomes a super bacterium if you dose it with penicillin. People are vastly more clever than a bacterium. They are responding. What people accept when the social contract is in-tact, becomes unacceptable when the social contract is broken. The abject lack of investment in growth due to a new sort of religious scientism among the elite will bring about a collapse of our industrial culture. What is unappreciated is that the demise of the elite will be more rapid by several times as this resistance rises among the people.
Now, by maintaining the social contract, we can maintain some semblance of order. This means not killing off the bulk of humanity, but shipping off the bulk of humanity to the great frontiers of interplanetary and interstellar space.
We do not need a die off.
We need an enlarged vision of what's possible.
The alternatives are, a larger range, or a smaller population.
Smaller population won't work. Larger range will. There is no freedom to reduce population going forward, not in any significant way since any attempt doing so will back-fire.
So, what does a larger range look like in the context of human technology, capabilities and capacities on this planet, in this solar system, in this sector of the Perseus arm of the Milky Way Galaxy?
There are 7.06 billions of us, and according to the Stanford Torus space colony studies we require less than a thousand square meters of well-engineered space to support each of us at $100,000 per year level. Operating this well-engineered infrastructure will take about 6% of our time to sustain us, using about 300 metric tons of rock as feedstock, and a few dozen square meters of efficient solar collectors.
Taking those with two standard deviations above the norm in intelligence, selecting workers on that basis, training them on that basis, and employing them twenty hours per week for ten years, on a voluntary basis - giving them certain social privileges for outstanding service at the end - we would be able to sustain and improve our living standard going forward without the corruption we find today.
I've discussed an emergent financial services industry that achieves this goal and more previously. This will happen anyway. Whether the present elite maintains control, or is destroyed by it, is their choice based on whether or not they elect to restore the social contract or continue to undermine it.
Modest engineering projects on Earth yield up a world city that supports 21 billions. Connecting all the world's 1000 largest cities by maglev, including long-distance under the ocean maglevs.
The same time attention and level of effort devoted to war today creates such a city in less than 7 years. After that, humanity unconstrained by any limits (including the reversal of ageing which was solved in 2009) population grows to fill that city in 96 years, by 2110, if nothing is done to develop off-world.
Within 96 years humanity, with only a modest level of investment in off-world development moves off-world in large numbers.
The 7 year investment that built the world-city, increases average energy use from 800 W/person to 4,800 W/person a 29.17% growth rate per year.
Increasing by this amount again, to 28,800 Watts/person, with 12% of the total power produced dedicated to rocket based space operations, means that people access space as easily as we travel by air today at this higher level of energy use. Most of the increase is for ballistic transport between points on Earth, turning the world into a global village.
After the initial campaign to build the world city, oligarchs can then slow growth rates and lower levels of effort on Earth, reducing growth rates in energy consumption to 9% per year. Thus, we achieve general access to ballistic transport in 21 years, 28 years from today, and every day access to space at that time.
Over this period, using techniques pioneered by Bernays and Lippman, and outlined by Packard, there is an appropriate shaping of desire, and development of off-world capabilities so that 4% of humanity is induced to leave Earth for space colonies within 28 years.
Even with unlimited life-spans, population growth rate does not exceed 1.14% per year. With a 1.14% rate of growth in human numbers, 4% leaving Earth means a decline of 2.86% per year in human numbers in 28 years.
So, our world city of 21 billion never gets full under this scenario. In fact we may be prepared to support 21 billion, but most of those will be visitors from off-world, humans who call space colonies home.
We attain a population of 9.7 billions by 2042 under these conditions and begin a 2.86% decline after that date.
YEAR EARTH SYSTEM TOTAL
2042 9.700 0.000 9.700
2050 7.691 2.930 10.621
2100 1.802 16.917 18.720
2150 0.422 32.573 32.995
Over this period we shape culture on Earth, built upon the system of rewards outlined above, for a few of the highest performing individuals to stay on Earth, to preserve, to protect and love their home world's unique character and the sustainable half billion who remain after 2150AD. There is also a flow back to Earth of numbers to balance the population at 0.5 billion.
For the 32.5 billion who inhabit the colonies in space, the urge to expansion is cultivated so that the main belt asteroids are developed, and life-styles and living standards continue to improve. All are princes living in their own sovereign domain. A high-technology cocoon maintained by super-intelligent species of self-replicating computers, robots, and other assorted machinery operating to maintain an individually crafted biosphere for every person.
Power satellites are developed to augment the terrestrial solar arrays described above. Later improved power satellites operating close to the Sun, and even on the solar surface, beaming energy throughout cislunar space.
The first generation of these advanced powersats are orbited 3.75 million km from Sol, 1/40th the distance of Earth, and beam energy across the solar system to wherever its needed, in whatever amounts needed.
This ushers in the era of photonic propulsion, both for interplanetary and interstellar travel. Without going into a lot of technical detail it is possible using technologies we know work today, to send payloads to stars up to 20,000 light years from Earth at 99% light speed.
At these speeds time is dilated and passes at a rate where ship time is 14.1% the rate of star time.
Again, this can all be accomplished, well before 2042 should humanity elect to spend the same amount of effort and manpower that it now spends on 'defence' and 'intelligence' operations world wide on these technologies.
Zbigniew Brzezinski writes in his book, Out of Control: Global Turmoil on the Eve of the Twenty-first Century(1993) "Lives deliberately extinguished by politically motivated carnage": 175 million in the 20th century.
This is an average of 1.75 million deaths per year, and 8.8 million injuries per year. Total cost of about $3.3 trillion per year world wide. This level of loss and injury, this level of spending, is acceptable for destructive activities. There is no reason this same level of loss and spending directed toward a positive vision of global, interplanetary and interstellar development, cannot be made, and welcomed by the world at large. This level of commitment, in terms of risk taking, in terms of effort, would result in all the preceding developments a century earlier, well before 2050 AD.
We should remember that suspended animation is a solved problem following the discoveries of Mark Roth, MD. Interstellar propulsion is a solved problem, following the discoveries of Young Bae and Robert Forward. Jordin Kare and Leik Myrabo have solved the problem of interplanetary transport.
There is nothing really stopping the developments of the type I've described above, save the willingness of those who manage the world's wealth and politics to envision such a world and allow it to come to fruition. Failure to embrace this vision means that those now in power are self-selecting against their long-term survival whilst delaying, not averting, the developments outlined here.
To recap, by 2150 AD, there are 33 billion humans of which 32.5 billions live in space colonies, primarily in the main belt asteroids. The Earth has achieved 500 million permanent residents, and is home to no more than 20.5 billion visitors who do not live on Earth permanently, but inhabit the residential infrastructure built in the mid 21st century.
Continuing growth in industrial capacity of humanity, resulting from continuing investment in the application of science and technology to the matters of human happiness, resulted first in personal ballistic transport becoming commonplace in the late 21st century, and then personally owned space colonies held in alloidal title on orbit around Earth by early 22nd century, and lead naturally to the development of mobile interplanetary space colonies by mid 22nd century.
After this time, energy levels per person are large enough to allow each person to move large payloads at significant fractions of the speed of light between stars.
So, with appropriate preparation over the preceding century, after 2150 AD sessile humanity opts to travel to nearby stars at significant fractions of the speed of light, whilst in suspended animation.
Here's where we address the long-term stability and population issues facing humanity, even one that has an unlimited life-span;
Motile humanity, the one's in transit, do not reproduce efficiently. That's because of two factors;
1) Lorentz time dilation,
2) suspended animation.
So, the 0.5 billion on Earth has 1.14% growth rate, removed by the call of space, accounting for those who return from interplanetary space, whilst the 32.5 billion within the solar system, has 4% removed into interstellar migration.
This causes the numbers in the solar system to decline after 2150 AD at the rate they declined on Earth in previous centuries.
YEAR EARTH SYSTEM TRANSIT TOTAL
2200 0.422 7.634 25.605 33.662
2250 0.422 1.789 31.517 33.729
2300 0.422 0.419 32.894 33.736
The political process that led to the stability of human numbers on Earth two centuries earlier, spreads to the planets of the solar system, as the bulk of humanity spreads across the nearby stars.
What will happen beyond the solar system with the 32.9 billions in transit?
19 December 2013 the European Space Agency launched the GAIA spacecraft. This spacecraft is measuring the parallax of all objects in the sky larger than 20th magnitude. It will eventually measure accurately the distance the spectra and the detailed motion of over 1 billion stars over the next few years. All stars out to a distance of 20,000 light years using an advanced interferometric technique.
This increases by a factor of a million knowledge about the distances to stars, from the current Gliese catalogue, which is a catalogue of the nearest 1562 stars out to a distance of 82 light years.
The data set from the Gaia mission will likely inform the plans of future interstellar explorers. Now, 7.5% of all stars in the Milky Way are G2 type stars, just like the Sun. Of the billion stars surveyed by Gaia, 75 million of them will be G2 type stars similar to the Sun.
So, the powers that be, in this process, license the passage of starships from Earth to nearby G2 stars, with the others being unlicensed. Again, through advertising and other techniques, 90% of humanity will seek to settle G2 type stars rather than other types, and engage in the licensing scheme. 10% of humanity will avoid licensing altogether and settle other type stars.
In this way the first wave of explorers from sol is constrained, through this licensing scheme, to a shell 500 light years in radius extending to a distance of 1000 light years in radius. They proceed to fill that shell, outermost first, falling back in range in time.
This shell contains 8203 G2 type stars just like the Sun.
Once known in detail, these are licensed off to a maximum of 4 million persons for each star, and then licensing is closed.
Those who elect to go to non-G2 stars, those who elect to go to any star beyond 1,000 light years, G2 or not, get automatic approval, however, they are restricted to 100 million per star system for a variety of sound technical reasons.
This absorbs up to 32.8 billion among the 8203 G2 type stars, and the balance absorbs the rest.
Stars closer to Sol than 500 light years, remain nominally under the control of Earth and off-limits to this first wave of settlers, though back propagation is permitted once they arrive and settle the licensed star system.
Earth's population at this time is a steady 422 millions whilst the solar system is an additional 419 millions.
The number of autonomous AI rise over this period - which is another topic - and another rationale to incorporate Asimov's laws of robotics as quickly as possible - which is another topic as well.
The advantage of this programme, is that motile humanity is not reproducing for 1000 years.
Another advantage is that all persons arrive at their target star on the same day 1000 years from the start of the programme.
A third advantage, is that each colony is surrounded by 295 stars of different spectral types, largely unpopulated by humans, and each colony is 94.5 light years from every other colony.
Earth is between 500 and 1000 light years from all its colonies.
So, all have adequate opportunity for independent development with little opportunity for conflict.
Also, the number of humans in the galaxy is fixed at nearly 33 billion for the next 1000 years, from 2200 AD to 3200 AD.
Of course, development continues in the solar system over this period, so those who leave later have a certain advantage to those who leave sooner. These more advanced cultures are closer to Sol.
The rise in number of humans leaving Sol is non-linear. It can almost be thought of as an explosion. By directing where these elements of explosion come to rest, we can shape the distribution of human culture for the next 10,000 years.
Here is how it works, with 4 millions per G2 star system;
RANGE EPOCH YEARS
LICENSES G2 STARS SOLAR POPULATION
ARRIVAL DATE TECHNOLOGY
1000-930 light years - Decade 1 - 2150-2160AD -
8,300 million - 2,075 stars - 33.0 billion Sol -
3150-3090 Arrival Date - 2150 tech
930-860 light years - Decade 2 - 2160-2170AD -
6,200 million - 1,550 stars - 24.7 billion Sol -
3090-3030 Arrival Date - 2160 tech
860-800 light years - Decade 3 - 2170-2180AD -
4,650 million - 1,165 stars - 18.5 billion Sol -
3030-2980 Arrival Date - 2170 tech
800-760 light years - Decade 4 - 2180-2190AD -
3,480 million - 870 stars - 13.8 billion Sol -
2980-2950 Arrival Date - 2180 tech
760-710 light years - Decade 5 - 2190-2200AD -
2,600 million - 650 stars - 10.3 billion Sol -
2950-2910 Arrival Date - 2190 tech
710-690 light years - Decade 6 - 2200-2210AD -
1,945 million - 486 stars - 7.7 billion Sol -
2910-2900 Arrival Date - 2200 tech
690-670 light years - Decade 7 - 2210-2220AD -
1,457 million - 364 stars - 5.8 billion Sol -
2900-2890 Arrival Date - 2210 tech
670-650 light years - Decade 8 - 2220-2230AD -
1,090 million - 272 stars - 4.3 billion Sol -
2890-2880 Arrival Date - 2220 tech
650-640 light years - Decade 9 - 2230-2240AD -
816 million - 203 stars - 3.2 billion Sol -
2880-2880 Arrival Date - 2230 tech
640-630 light years - Decade 10-2240-2250AD -
610 million - 152 stars - 2.4 billion Sol -
2880-2880 Arrival Date - 2240 tech
This outlines the expansion during the first century. The next century continues to slow the reduction in range traversing the remaining 130 light years in range from 630 to 500 light years over the next 400 years.
This will cause the stars nearest Sol, to be more advanced than stars farther away since ships colonizing closer stars will leave later than the farther ships and arrive at their destinations before the farther ships.
This creates a favourable hegemony for Earth going forward.
All G2 type stars beyond 500 ly and within 1000 ly have a population of 4 millions each, with arrivals starting in 2880 AD and continued arrivals through 3150 AD.
Earth will have a population of 400 millions and space colonies orbiting Sol will have another 400 millions.
Gradual changes in the memes operating across humanity at Sol will lead to a gradual reduction in the number who leave Sol, to maintain a stable population of 800 million at Sol, with 9.12 millions continuing to leave Sol each year, balancing population growth.
The licensing regime then passes into history, as the 1,172 G2 type stars within 500 ly of Sol are freely opened to humanity, with a mere registration replacing licensing of personally owned star ships.
The next phase of development will be a sessile phase for humanity generally on the 'outer rim'.
The 4 million arriving in 2880 at stars inside 650 ly radius of Earth, and outside the 500 ly radius, will swell to 170 millions over the 270 year period between 2880 and 3150AD. Their tech will also grow from 2230AD level to 2500AD level in this interval.
While still centuries behind Earth and the world's interior to this first Diaspora, they're centuries ahead of the stars beyond 700 light years, within the 1000 light year radius sphere. Over the first 500 years population levels rise to 800 millions at each of the G2 stars within 1000 light years of Earth - by 3650 AD. At this time, 1.14% of the population is inspired to set out to visit nearby stars, and nearby colonies.
Now, here's the long-term balancing act, and the reason we see the cosmos the way it is;
For every light year of travel 99.978% of the starships will survive - if each hour of exposure brings the same probability of death as flying airlines today. This means that over 1000 light years 80.25% will make it. Over 500 light years 89.6% will make it. The important detail is that at this level of success, travel beyond 51.8 light years, means that population levels are maintained!
Thus, separation of more than this distance, while urging 1.14% of the population to engage in travel beyond this distance, maintains population levels throughout the volume of space generally.
This is the third phase of settlement - and it involves the gradual dispersion of humanity from this original shell, dropping in population from 800 million at Earth to 400 million 3100 light years from Earth, to 200 million 6200 light years from Earth, to 100 million 9300 light years from Earth.
All using known technology.
Development of more advanced means of propulsion and transport over this period will change matters.
Basically, the development of time travel, or faster than light travel (which is the same thing) will result in dropping population densities per star to nearly zero as humanity spreads instantly across a cosmos filled with more G2 type stars than there have ever been individual human beings.
AI is a separate topic, and it is more complex. However, by focusing on human happiness exclusively, order can be wrought over the foreseeable future along the lines outlined here.