bigdog <
jecorb...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On Saturday, June 27, 2015 at 10:10:33 PM UTC-4, Allan G. Johnson wrote:
> > On Friday, June 26, 2015 at 4:54:15 PM UTC-4, bigdog wrote:
> > > On Thursday, June 25, 2015 at 10:42:58 PM UTC-4, Allan G. Johnson
> > > wrote=
> :
> > > > On Wednesday, June 24, 2015 at 11:29:49 AM UTC-4, bigdog wrote:
> > > > > On Monday, June 22, 2015 at 9:36:35 PM UTC-4, Allan G. Johnson
> > > > > wrot=
> e:
> > > > > > On Saturday, June 20, 2015 at 7:54:57 PM UTC-4, bigdog wrote:
> > > > > > > On Friday, June 19, 2015 at 8:33:40 PM UTC-4, FSHG wrote:
> > > > > > > >=20
> > > > > > > > Exactly like many other witnesses (and exactly like the
> > > > > > > > Warre=
> n Commission=20
> > > > > > > > admitted in its report about the witnesses it recorded
> > > > > > > > statem=
> ents from),=20
> > > > > > > > the last 2 shots that Hickey could hear were bunched much
> > > > > > > > clo=
> ser together=20
> > > > > > > > than the first 2 shots he could hear. (even though the
> > > > > > > > curren=
> t WC=20
> > > > > > > > apologists theory tries to believe the last 2 shots were
> > > > > > > > over=
> 46% further=20
> > > > > > > > apart than the first 2 shots)
> > > > > > > >=20
> > > > > > >=20
> > > > > > > There is no consensus among WC defenders as to exactly when
> > > > > > > the=
> first shot=20
> > > > > > > was fired since there simply is no definitive evidence that
> > > > > > > all=
> ows us to=20
> > > > > > > pinpoint that first shot. Reasonable arguments can be made
> > > > > > > for =
> a wide=20
> > > > > > > range of possible times that first shot was fired, but no one
> > > > > > > h=
> as been=20
> > > > > > > able to establish that with certitude. Holland's explanation
> > > > > > > wo=
> uld be=20
> > > > > > > consistent with those witnesses who said the last two shots
> > > > > > > wer=
> e closer=20
> > > > > > > together. That is certainly a possibility. I believe it is
> > > > > > > simp=
> ly more=20
> > > > > > > likely the earwitnesses were hearing multiple sounds from
> > > > > > > that =
> headshot=20
> > > > > > > that they interpreted as two seperate shots very close
> > > > > > > together=
> , but that=20
> > > > > > > too is nothing more than an educated guess.
> > > > > >=20
> > > > > > Also, if somehow you can reasonably conclude or prove that
> > > > > > the=
> first=20
> > > > > > shot was fired at frame 133 or before, or just assume it for
> > > > > > the =
> sack of=20
> > > > > > argument, it is the only option that offers an explanation for
> > > > > > al=
> l the=20
> > > > > > reactions that follow on film. Hickey, JFK, Connally, Rosemary
> > > > > > W=
> illis,=20
> > > > > > etc. all reacted after 133, some sooner than later, but none
> > > > > > more=
> than 1=20
> > > > > > 1/2 seconds apart. If you use 160 as the time of the first
> > > > > > shot =
> (the last=20
> > > > > > possible opportunity to shoot at the limo from the 6th floor
> > > > > > befo=
> re it=20
> > > > > > passed under the tree), then you can't explain why Hickey
> > > > > > started=
> to turn=20
> > > > > > left to see if a firecracker hit the side of the car, JFK
> > > > > > lowerin=
> g his=20
> > > > > > hand and looking left, Connally looking left then right,
> > > > > > Rosemary=
> Willis=20
> > > > > > turning her head and slowing down, etc. all these reactions
> > > > > > happe=
> ned just=20
> > > > > > at or after 133 and way before 160. What were they reacting to
> > > > > > i=
> f the=20
> > > > > > shot fired at 160? If the shot fired at or before 133 it
> > > > > > explain=
> s what=20
> > > > > > they're reacting to, they just had different reacting times.
> > > > > >=20
> > > > > > There is also the film itself, it shows a clear frame 133 and
> > > > > > 1=
> 35, but=20
> > > > > > frame 134 is very blurred. That could be due to Zapruder
> > > > > > hearing=
> and=20
> > > > > > reacting to the first shot. But, it could also be due to the
> > > > > > cam=
> era=20
> > > > > > moving just as Zapruder restarted the filming.
> > > > >=20
> > > > > I think movements of the people you mention may well be in
> > > > > reaction=
> to the=20
> > > > > sound of a gunshot. However no matter how many times I watch the
> > > > > Z-=
> film=20
> > > > > I've never seen any movement by JFK himself that indicates he was
> > > > > e=
> ven=20
> > > > > aware the sound was a gunshot. The raising and lowering of his
> > > > > righ=
> t hand=20
> > > > > and his turn to the right seem to me to be only to wave at the
> > > > > few=
> =20
> > > > > remaining spectators on Elm St. He seems oblivious to that first
> > > > > sh=
> ot. My=20
> > > > > guess is that he like a number of witnesses didn't recognize the
> > > > > fi=
> rst=20
> > > > > blast as a gunshot but either a motorcycle backfire or a
> > > > > firecracke=
> r. Had=20
> > > > > he thought it was a gunshot I think he would have instantly
> > > > > realize=
> d he=20
> > > > > was the probable target and his reaction would probably have been
> > > > > t=
> o get=20
> > > > > Jackie and his head down and out of harm's way as best he could.
> > > >=20
> > > > No one will know for sure what JFK was thinking or reacting to
> > > > whe=
> n he=20
> > > > dropped his right hand and looked to the LEFT at Jackie. Perhaps
> > > > it =
> was=20
> > > > in reaction to hearing the loud bang, not knowing exactly what it
> > > > was=
> and=20
> > > > not seeing anything unusual, he went back to waving to his right.
> > > > If=
> he=20
> > > > instantly recognized it as a gun shot, I'm sure he would have
> > > > reacted=
> =20
> > > > differently as you suggest. My point is that from the time the
> > > > film=
> =20
> > > > started to the time he was hit by the second shot, he DID react
> > > > to=20 something starting at frame 140, and it was the ONLY time he
> > > > stopped=
> =20
> > > > waving, which is concurrent with reactions from other people on
> > > >film. =20
> > > > Think of it this way BD, if you place the first shot at 133 or
> > > > be=
> fore,=20
> > > > everything seems to fit. 3 shots being fired, plenty of time to
> > > > get =
> the=20
> > > > shots off, more time between shots one and two then shots two and
> > > > thr=
> ee,=20
> > > > reactions of people on film (Hickey, Rosemary, JFK, Connally, etc),
> > > > =
> =20
> > > > supports single bullet fact (if first shot missed and third shot
> > > > hit =
> head,=20
> > > > the second shot had to hit both Kennedy and Connally), first
> > > > shot=20 deflecting off street light pole causing deflection of
> > > > bullet fragmen=
> ts,=20
> > > > arrangement of the shells on the floor of the 6th floor,
> > > > eyewitness=
> =20
> > > > accounts of first shot fired just after limo turned onto Elm St.,
> > > > etc=
> . =20
> > > > If you place the first shot at around 150 to 160, then you have to
> > > > co=
> me up=20
> > > > with all kinds of different reasons to explain things and that's
> > > > when=
> the=20
> > > > arguments get off track.
> > >=20
> > > I have said previously that I neither embrace nor reject Max
> > > Holland's=
> =20
> > > theory of a shot before Zapruder resumed filming. A first shot at
> > > Z133=
> =20
> > > would mean roughly 90 frames between each subsequent shot which would
> > > f=
> it=20
> > > with those who thought the shots were evenly spaced. I believe
> > > Holland=
> =20
> > > places it the equivelant of 30 frames earlier which would fit with
> > > thos=
> e=20
> > > who thought the last two came closer together which was the
> > > majority=20 viewpoint. Holland's theory seems to fit better with some
> > > pieces of the=
> =20
> > > puzzle but not with others. Most notably Connally's visible reaction
> > > wh=
> ich=20
> > > began at Z164 when he snapped his head quickly to his right. If
> > > Holland=
> is=20
> > > correct, Connally took over 3 seconds to make that visible reaction.
> > > Th=
> at=20
> > > is possible if his reaction was a cognitive, deliberate reaction
> > > as=20 opposed to an intantaneous reaction to it.
> > >=20
> > > My own belief, which is part hunch, part educated guess is a first
> > > shot=
> at=20
> > > Z151 which would fit with the jiggle at Z158. But since there were
> > > more=
> =20
> > > jiggles than shots, it can't be stated with any certainty that the
> > > Z158=
> =20
> > > jiggle was caused by a shot.
> > >=20
> > > Reasonable arguments can be made for that first shot when Max
> > > Holland=
> =20
> > > placed, Z160 which is when Dale Myers placed it, or sometime in
> > > between=
> .=20
> > > It would be nice to be able to nail down this loose piece but=20
> > > unfortunately with the evidence we have, I don't think we will ever
> > > be=
> =20
> > > able to state with certainty when it was fired. If only Zapruder had
> > > a=
> =20
> > > camera with sound. If the assassination were to happen today, we
> > > would=
> =20
> > > have dozens of videos with sound to tell us what happened.
> >=20
> > Personally, I don't put much weight or significance on the camera=20
> > jiggles. There are far too many of them that occur at different times
> > in=
> =20
> > the film to draw any conclusions. Too many reasons for them (they
> > could=
> =20
> > be possible reactions to loud noise, bad camera, loose film,
> > unsteady=20 operator, starting and stopping film, etc.).
> >=20
>
> If Alvarez is correct, every shot would be followed by a jiggle but not
> every jiggle was preceded by a shot. That's why when we see a jiggle we
> can only say there may have been a shot just before that unless of course
> there is positive visual proof of a shot. We have that for shots 2 and 3
> but not for the shot 1.
>
> > The Connally head movement to the right is seen around 150, but,
> > keep=
> =20
> > in mind, he said he tried to look left over his shoulder at first to
> > try=
> =20
> > and see Kennedy after he heard the first shot, which he recognized=20
> > immediately as a rifle shot. He then looked back to his right and
> > soon=
> =20
> > after that he was hit. His reaction at 150 is after he already
> > looked=20 left, another indication the first shot was earlier.
> >=20
> > To A.M., Connally did have a delayed reaction to being hit at 223.
> > =20 Even after looking at the Zapruder film, he said he wasn't hit
> > until at=
> =20
> > least 235. He definitely physically reacted to being hit at 223-224,
> > the=
> =20
> > same time as Kennedy, but didn't feel it, and it didn't register,
> > until=
> =20
> > later when he was still in the process of turning around to his right
> > to=
> =20
> > look at JFK. (PS- I'm neither a Kook or a Nazi).
> >=20
>
> Connally did not have a delayed reaction. He had a two stage reaction.
> The most obvious one is his twist/dip to his right which began at about
> the time you said. However this was preceded by about a half second by
> the sudden flip of his injured right arm which began at Z226. This is
> exactly the frame when JFK's arms suddenly jerk upward. Most people think
> when he reappears at Z225, JFK is already reacting to being hit. He has
> been hit but has not yet reacted. We know this because we can see his
> right hand in frame Z224 and it is higher than it was at Z225 which means
> at Z225 it was still coming down. It is in Z226 that his right arm
> reverses direction and starts upward in reaction to being shot through
> the throat. JFK and JBC showed their first reaction in exactly the same
> frame which is what we would expect if they were hit by the same bullet.
>
> > What this thread is attempting to do is, if possible, point out=20
> > legitimate arguments and opinions on when the first shot was fired. =20
> > Personally, I think the shot was fired at or just before frame 133 on
> > the=
> =20
> > Z. film. Everything seems to fit and have a reasonable explanation if
> > it=
> =20
> > actually occurred at that time. I guess we'll have to wait and see
> > if=20 something surfaces that can definitively determine this. As for
> > now, if =
> I=20
> > was to bet on it, you can put me down for twenty, I'm good for it.
>
> On this I would say your guess is as good as mine. I would say the same
> to Myers and Holland. Everyone has pride of authorship, but I don't think
> anyone has established when that first shot was taken.
===========================================================================
=====THE COMMISSION KNEW THAT THE FIRST SHOT COULD "NOT" HAVE BEEN BEFORE
FRAME 210 BECAUSE A LRGE LIVE OAK TREE BLOCKED VIEWE OF THE 6TH FLOOR
WINDOW PRIOR TO THAT 210 ! ! !
===========================================================================
=====