Next Session - February 14, with Adrian Raftery

[All About That Bayes]

Dear all,

The next session will be on February 14, 2023. 14:00, Campus Pierre et Marie Curie (Sorbonne Université), Room TBA (Teams link). We are very pleased to welcome Adrian Raftery (University of Washington) who will talk about Very Long-Term Bayesian Global Population and Migration Projections for Assessing the Social Cost of Carbon (abstract below).

You can also add to your calendar the following session : March 21, 2023. 14:00, AgroParisTech (22 place de l'Agronomie, 91123 Palaiseau). The talk will be given by Francesca Crucinio (ENSAE).

Best regards,

The All about that Bayes organising team

Abstract

Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, to assess changes, and to make decisions involving risks. In a major breakthrough, since 2015 the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology. Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn rely on even longer-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts, by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. We find that, while world population is projected to grow for most of the rest of this century, it is likely to stabilize in the 22nd century, and to decline in the 23rd century.

Webpage: https://sites.stat.washington.edu/raftery/