On the Matter of the Relative Quality of Foreign and Local Investments. {Re: Re: Nigeria's Stocks Fall to Three-Year Low as Foreigners Exit

[Mobolaji Aluko]

Joe Attueyi:

You are, o, so conventional and starchy about your "economic" policy....see how you rationalize "fraud and corruption" as being due to "bureaucratic allocation of resources", without knowing that that it is equivalent to your own "yam and goat" policy, or a variation of "low salary equals stealing" rationalization which finance Minister Kemi firmly railed against.

Yes, Segun Sanni is right that Foreign Direct Investment FDIs and Foreign Portfolio Investment FPIs are two sides of the same coin....in fact they may be the same side if you look closely at their identities.  But granted that there at at least 192 nations in the world, and that it is not only our country that wants FDIs and FPIs, has it ever bothered us to find out

  (1). The time trajectory (say over the past ten years) and current value in Nigeria, of n.FDI/n.LDI, and n.FPI/n.LPI, where L stands for Local, and n stands for number.

   (2). The same information for $,FDI/$.LDI and $.FPI/$.LPI, ratio of dollar values of investment?

    (3). These same figures for US, UK, Japan, China, India and Brazil, and throw in South Africa?

My point is that we should be more concerned with the quality and diversity of both FDI and FPI, as well as LDI and NDI, because no nation develops purely on the strength of the former pair, participants of which may have completely different Shylockian aims, and are around only to take advantage of the weak institutions and regulations in the host country.  Then when they read of new and stronger regulations, they flee or withhold investment, which on the long run other participants from elsewhere in the world may take their place.

Some of the stock exchange pains our country currently faces may linger.  By the way, thus  is not the first time in Nigerian history that our stocks have been "lowest in three years;"  and eventually climbed out...Joe Attueyi knows that I have been displaying Nigerian stock graphs for years under Soludo until I got tired, but he accused me of doing so because Soludo was Igbo!  That fever will come and go, wailing wailers!

What the nation should concentrate on are what increase both the quantity and quality of both local and direct investment of all types:

    (1). Security

    (2). Infrastructure reliability (power, water, transportation)

    (3). Stable, transparent and enforced trade laws

    (4). Skilled workforce

Any other ways of manipulating stocks is casino kalokalo economics...we should return to basics, even if it will hurt us for a while.  Again, remember that a nation cannot develop only on foreign investment.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

On Wednesday, December 2, 2015, 'Joe Attueyi' via AfricanWorldForum <africanw...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

Thank you Segun. Like the old Santana advert 'nothing more to add'. 

I am still waiting for Prof Obi Nwakanma's lecture / examples of autarky as a successful model of building a modern economy 

We need to learn to do the simple things that have shown to work. Market competition underpinned by governmental regulation works. Not perfect. But it works. 

Bureaucratic allocation of economic resources generates fraud and corruption. Always. This stuff is not rocket science 

Joe

Sent from my iPhone

On Dec 2, 2015, at 9:41 AM, 'Segun Sanni' via AfricanWorldForum <africanw...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

I thought you understood the linkages and inter-dependences better. ‎Please note the following: 

1. Foreigners who brought in their funds to set up and run businesses in Nigeria are Foreign Direct Investors (FDIs) while foreigners who buy shares in businesses run in Nigeria ‎are the Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). 

Both classes of investments/investors (FDIs and FPIs) are good for us and are indispensable to our economic growth. While FDIs like PZ, Unilever, Cadbury, etc, run their businesses here, they get cheap long term capital/financing from the stock market in which the FPIs are heavily invested. 

2. Many of the FDIs are multinationals who are quoted on foreign stock exchanges (London Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchanges, etc). Much of the money they invest in Nigeria is raised from the foreign stock exchanges and owned by the same FPIs who also invest in London, New York, etc. Therefore the FPIs who bought shares in London contributed to the company which brought FDI to Nigeria. 

2. The FDIs are themselves directly affected by the economic policies of the government, same policies driving away the FPIs. The FX rationing ‎of the CBN (on which the FPIs are uncomfortable) is impacting heavily on the ability of the manufacturing companies (FDIs) to source for Foreign Exchange. 

4. Nigeria could do better in attracting FDIs ‎and FPIs if only we could address the problems of power, transportation and wrong government policies. Remember the departure from Nigeria of Michelin, Dunlop, etc. 

From the above‎, you'll agree that FDIs and FPIs are equally important and that's why all progressive countries of the world court the investors and compete to have them. You can't have an inflow of FDIs if your policies are driving away FPIs. 

Shikena.

Sent from my BlackBerry 10 smartphone.

From: Imperial imperi...@yahoo.com [AfricanWorldForum] Sent: Tuesday, 1 December 2015 22:28 To: YanA...@yahoogroups.com Reply To: AfricanW...@yahoogroups.com Cc: africanw...@googlegroups.com; OmoOdua; Yahoo! Inc.; Yahoo! Inc.; AfricanWorldForum; naija politics; TalkNaija; yahoogroups; Ra'ayi Riga; Naija...@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: {Yan Arewa} Re: [africanworldforum] Fw: [Universityofilorinalum] Re: Nigeria's Stocks Fall to Three-Year Low as Foreigners Exit

 

Joe the pastor / Segun,

Nigeria needs foreign direct investment ( FDI ) not foreign direct portfolio . 

FDI impacts directly on the our development, production, employment , import substitution 

polices and overall wellbeing of the people  but the the impact of a rise or fall in Nigeria's capital market impacts on a few Nigerians and foreign speculators in our various equities which on average were overvalued due to several market factors.

 

Sent from my iPad

On 1 Dec 2015, at 21:42, Joe Attueyi topc...@yahoo.com [YanArewa] <YanA...@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

Everybody, except the diehard Buharideens, seems to have given up!

Let us pray

Joe

Sent from my iPhone

On Dec 1, 2015, at 8:33 PM, 'Segun Sanni' via AfricanWorldForum <africanw...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

Sent from my BlackBerry 10 smartphone.

From: Okan Seye Adetunmbi okan...@gmail.com [Universityofilorinalum] <Universityo...@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Tuesday, 1 December 2015 07:32 To: Professionals; Buddies; UNILAG Squash Club; College Alumni; ascensionfamily; The School; Ojo Onilepanu; The School; Ekiti Ekitipanupo Reply To: Universityo...@yahoogroups.com Cc: Ekiti Community Square Subject: [Universityofilorinalum] Re: Nigeria's Stocks Fall to Three-Year Low as Foreigners Exit

 

Hmmm
1

 

Nigeria’s stocks fell to their lowest level in almost three years as foreigners exited the market amid fading hopes that President Muhammadu Buhari’s government can revive an economy growing at its slowest pace this century.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index dropped 0.8 percent to 27,385.69 at close in the commercial capital of Lagos, the lowest since December 2012. The gauge declined on all but three trading days in November for a monthly drop of 6.2 percent.

“The government has not come up with a definitive policy for the economy,” Pabina Yinkere, an analyst at Vetiva Capital Management Ltd., said by phone from Lagos. “The continued lack of clarity is affecting the stock market.”

While Buhari, a 72-year-old former general who came to power in May, has prioritized stamping out corruption in Africa’s biggest economy and oil producer, investors were irked by a delay of more than five months in forming a cabinet, which he swore in Nov. 11. There’s also concern that his support for the central bank’s currency-trading restrictions are choking businesses of the dollars they need to pay foreign suppliers.

Almost two stocks declined for every one that rose. Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, the nation’s biggest lender by market capitalization, dropped 2.7 percent to 20 naira ($0.10). The stock is down 21 percent this year, about the same as the overall index. That’s the biggest fall in sub-Saharan Africa after the Zimbabwe Industrial Index. Specialist African funds including Alquity Investment Management Ltd. and Duet Asset Management Ltd. have lowered their Nigerian exposure because they think that central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele will be forced to devalue the naira, which would cause losses on holdings in foreign-currency terms. Last week’s interest rate cut by the central bank, its first in six years, will heap more pressure on the currency, according to David McIlroy, Alquity’s chief investment officer.

The naira was unchanged at 199.05 per dollar and has been all but fixed at 198 to 199 since early March. Forward prices suggest it will weaken to 241.25 in a year.

Pressure on Currency

“The surprise reduction in rates has probably worried international investors even more,” McIlroy said by phone from London. “Given the inflation rate is above the central bank’s target, there’s pressure on the currency and they need to attract foreign capital, you’d expect interest rates to be rising.” Annual inflation was 9.3 percent in October, higher than the central bank’s target of 6 percent to 9 percent. Alquity held about seven Nigerian stocks at the beginning of 2015, including Guaranty Trust Bank and Zenith Bank Plc. It now holds only Dangote Cement Plc. Equity funds are more underweight in Nigeria than any other frontier and emerging market, except for Kuwait and Morocco, analysts at Renaissance Capital Ltd. said in a Nov. 23 note to clients.

“We’ve increased our positions in Egypt and Kenya at the expense of Nigeria,” McIlroy said. Nigeria is reeling from crude prices that have plunged 57 percent since June 2014. Economic growth will slow to 3.2 percent this year from 6.3 percent in 2014, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That would be the slowest pace since 1999

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/nigeria-s-stocks-fall-to-three-year-low-as-foreigners-exit

One can only continue to wish our dear country well.

Thanks,

Anthony Ayodele

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[Afis Deinde]

"What the nation should concentrate on are what increase both the quantity and quality of both local and direct investment of all types:

(1). Security
(2). Infrastructure reliability (power, water, transportation)
(3). Stable, transparent and enforced trade laws
(4). Skilled workforce

Any other ways of manipulating stocks is casino kalokalo economics...we should return to basics, even if it will hurt us for a while. Again, remember that a nation cannot develop only on foreign investment.".........Dr Aluko.


Amen!
Shikena
Afis
“Just as a solid rock is not shaken by the storm, even so the wise are not affected by praise or blame.” — Dhamapada, verse 81.

Sent from my iPhone

[Joe Attueyi]

Prof Aluko

In your speed to respond to 'Joe Attueyi' you have uncharacteristically failed to fully understand the logic of what you were responding to. 

I think basic logic would show that there is a significant difference between:

 1. Bureaucratic allocation of economic resources generates fraud and corruption. 

and

2. fraud and corruption" as being due to "bureaucratic allocation of resources"

plasmodium parasite causes sickness is a valid statement. 

Sickness is due to plasmodium parasite would not be a valid statement. While a particular sickness maybe caused by plasmodium parasite, there are many other causes of sickness other than plasmodium parasite. 

There are many causes of corruption. My statement is specific that Bureaucratic allocation of economic resources is definitely a cause of corruption. If you don't agree with that assertion then say so and we can debate it. 

You wrote:

Yes, Segun Sanni is right that Foreign Direct Investment FDIs and Foreign Portfolio Investment FPIs are two sides of the same coin

So where is the disagreement? Abi you are on auto- oppose mode? Hehehehe!

You wrote:

My point is that we should be more concerned with the quality and diversity of both FDI and FPI, as well as LDI and NDI, because no nation develops purely on the strength of the former pair

I agree with yours above--- with the proviso no nation develops without both foreign and local investors. The debate was about Obi Nwakanma's assertion that autarky is the only way we can make economic progress and Imperial's interjection that we need only FDIs not FPIs. 

You wrote: 

participants of which may have completely different Shylockian aims, and are around only to take advantage of the weak institutions and regulations in the host country.  Then when they read of new and stronger regulations, they flee or withhold investment, which on the long run other participants from elsewhere in the world may take their place.

All these 'economic patriotism ' may sound good to the ears but it is just emotionalism. We need local and foreign investors. In fact the extent to which foreigners invest in your economy is an external validation of your success in putting in place 'good security, reliable infrastructure, transparent and enforceable trade laws and a skilled workforce'. These are the reasons the iPhone in my hand is made in China not in Nigeria

Joe
Sent from my iPhone

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[John Ebohon]

Prof.,

 

You are very right and so is Joe. Joe states a statement of fact that market subjected to regulations works, and has worked in other countries. The excellent point that you have made, is that this market does not need to be ceded to foreign investors that apart from their onerous conditionality, may distort local investment market by pushing for sectors that may not necessarily support the local economy but actually geared towards meeting external needs. My brother Joe needs to read up on how the International Finance Corporation (IFC) devastated Uganda at one time, leaving devastating effects still felt today by granting huge and generous loans for growing flowers, forcing huge land to be taken out of growing staple foods for flowers for the European Market.

 

It was very interesting to note that this was possible under the United Nation’s Clean Development Mechanism to combat climate change effects because Holland, amongst other European countries spend huge amount of energy growing flowers because of the warmth environment required, and in the process, presiding over huge green gas emissions harmful to the environment. Looked at critically, this is money Uganda could access without having to come from a multilateral organisation such IFC, and that could have been used to drive Uganda’s own development agenda. Most times, our policy makers ‘wee’ on themselves out of excitement when they hear FDIs FPIs etc without taking the time to scrutinize the quality of such supposed investments, even though we all know that not all that glitter are gold.

 

In line with Prof. Aluko’s thinking, I once argued that the time devoted by African leaders chasing the so-called FDIs and FPIs can best be utilised pleading with locals with the means to invest locally rather than stash their wealth in foreign banks – give them the guarantee and tax breaks, which may be less generous than we are too eager to give to FDIs.

 

So, you are both right, it is just a question of emphasis.

OJ          

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[Mobolaji Aluko]

Joe Attueyi:  

You and I both agree on these issues more than we disagree...so we should both quit while we are ahead....

But on economic patriotism, let me say that all countries need it to succeed, advance and survive.  But it requires discipline and realism, and the willingness to suffer some temporary discomfort, and to ignore many wailing wailers still smarting from recent duscombubulations....

When Obama gave a target of internal energy sufficiency to the U.S., was that not economic patriotism?  When aid is given by foreign countries, and they require you to use a certain percentage of contractors and consultants from donor country, is that not EP?  When you cannot fly for US government work on non-US airlines, is that not EP?

It is only when developing countries do EP that it is termed EE - economic emotionalism?

And there you have it.....

Bolaji Aluko

[edwin udenkwo]

 

Nigeria infrastructure cannot not be develop with Lagos dependent import. If Minster of Works, Power and Housing Mr. Fashola will make a dent on improvement of his Ministry, the Lagos Mind set of Import dependency will be replace with inward.

I keep on reading the beautiful article written by Mr. Patrick Dele Cole

 

 

Nigeria, Ukraine, USSR and the West (2)

January 16, 2015 | Filed under: Analysis | Author: Patrick Dele Cole

 

var addthis_config = {"data_track_addressbar":true}; Ukraine has a special place in Nigeria – and this is where I want to turn to next. The Ajaokuta Steel Mill was built by Ukraine (on behalf of the USSR) but over 97 percent of all those who came to Nigeria to build it were Ukranians. They cheated us. The plant was never finished and we have had no value for the money spent. Billions of dollars were paid to the Ukranians either in cash or by investible and discountable Nigeria papers, (bonds) and other derivatives.

The saga of the Nigerian papers in the hands of the USSR and Ukranians gave Nigeria a bad name and reputation as unreliable borrowers. Every considerable crook in Europe and the banks thereof, backed by a battery of lawyers and investment consultants, made millions out of the Nigerian papers, which changed hands so rapidly that no magician could compete with the sleight of hands about the Nigerian papers. That episode has become famous in chasing and buying Nigerian papers at rates which the CBN could not reclaim or follow. The papers made the world financial history when some people owed for something else instituted a writ of certiorari to get hold of the papers. This is the origin of all the loot reputed to have been stolen by Nigeria since 1976.

In 1979 Nigeria was well on its way to industrialization: the LNG contracts had been signed, the petrochemical contracts in Port Harcourt and Warri were coming on line, the four petroleum refineries were all working, major public works were ongoing and public housing, barracks buildings were all moving towards completion. Six new ports had been completed; the Indians, then the Chinese were to fix the railways.

In 1977 Nigeria had hosted the world to the only black arts extravaganza; the National Theatre was up, so was the trade exhibition centre. The naira was strong and we needed a policy of steady-as-you-go. Nigeria had cement factories in at least 6 states, and brick-making factories in 12 states to help in construction of affordable housing. There was food security and contracts worth several billions had been given to build silos and warehouses for food preservation. The textile industry in Nigeria was the most vibrant in the world. But all these were dependent on steel infrastructure that would underpin the foundation of an industrial take-off. This is why Ajaokuta was and is still important.

The Shagari government took off in 1979 and admittedly had the lukewarm attitude of a new civilian government trying to find its feet. The tenders for Ajaokuta Steel were already in before 1979 but the outgoing military government felt it was better to leave the biggest contract ever signed by Nigeria to the civilian government. There was no end to political lobbyists claiming that they ought to be compensated because they had funded the NPN. The stalwarts of that party lined up to receive their rewards. The Ajaokuta contract was awarded to three contractors who had heavy political backing. The complex had a battery of consultants and from then till 2000 the contractors made millions from the contract – scandal followed scandal. Even so, Shagari went for re-election in 1983 and won handsomely. The cabinet that Shagari was trying to put together in 1983 would have been the best ever assembled in Nigeria.

The aluminium smelting plant was up and running; the newspaper plant was drawing towards successful production; the tyre-making industries (Dunlop, Michelin) were all in full production. Nigeria Airways was one of the largest airlines with 31 planes flying to all parts of the world; the Nigerian Shipping Line had 21 ships in its fleet with a purchase order of another 19 from Korea. The failure of Ajaokuta put an end to all of this and Buhari had no plans to keep Nigeria industrialized. Even if he did, he had a no-tolerance policy to corruption until Nigerians found that his disciplinarian outlook did not extend to the Emir who returned with 53 suitcases.

Let me retract. My problem is not with Buhari but with the Ukrainians and Russians who cheated us of millions of dollars over Ajoakuta. We lost the opportunity to have developed into an industrialized state because with the failure of Ajoakuta, all the carefully constructed consequences of Ajoakuta collapsed.

In December 1983, Idiagbon and Buhari struck. No military coup had even been greeted with less enthusiasm than that coup. But the coupists seemed to have an agenda for discipline which obviously the NPN government did not have. It did not take long before IBB in 1985 ousted Buhari for the draconian laws that he instated in Nigeria. But that is all long way from Ajaokuta. All the major contractors of Ajaokuta spent long spell in prison under Buhari: not one penny was recovered. Instead, Ajaokuta continued unabated and new classifications were devised for it. Meanwhile, money left Nigeria as water through a sieve.

The steel plant in Ajaokuta was the kingpin to have pushed this country into industrialization. It was part of a grand steel making project, supported by six steel direct reduction plants, buttressed by a machine tools factory at Oshogbo. Nigeria was buying steel billets from all over the world – bring them to Aladja and such other steel plants. If cement was the defining element in the fall of General Gowon, steel was the defining moment in the failure of all economic plans since 1976.

Ajaokuta was to have encouraged surface mining of coal, hence its location in Kogi. Nigeria was to import iron ore from mountains of the stuff from Liberia; sulphur from Cote d’Ivoire. A broad modern railway was to run (built by Julius Berger) from Ajaokuta to ports in Warri, Burutu, Sapele, etc. The railway remains unfinished.

Just sit back and consider the waste and loss since Ajaokuta. The last phase of the plant was to build flat steel which we needed for the 5 motor assembly plants we had in conjunction with Peugeot, Fiat, Styer, Volkswagen and Mercedes Benz. Forty years of loss, waste, pillaging and theft! Can anybody do the account and sums today? This is Ukraine’s legacy to Nigeria. I think somebody ought to look into this and start making claims on Russia and Ukraine.

Finally, Mital bought the Ajaokuta plant. He was chased out of Nigeria because he could not meet the demands of officials and thousands of people being owed by Ajaokuta Steel. If Nigeria had invited Mital and asked him to pay a penny for Ajaokuta, provided he could revive it, perhaps today Kogi and Nigeria would be a different place.

Patrick Dele Cole

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Mistake in 1984 should not be repeated.

   

Power Transmission line bone of Nigeria Power Problem

Imagine the amount of steel, aluminum require to construct one mile of transmission line and the logistic of transporting the steel.  Nigeria

Water: Imagine the amount of ductile iron pipe   require to construct one mile of transmission line and the logistic of transporting the steel.

 

What the nation should concentrate on are what increase both the quantity and quality of both local and direct investment of all types:

    (1). Security
    (2). Infrastructure reliability (power, water, transportation)
    (3). Stable, transparent and enforced trade laws
    (4). Skilled workforce

Any other ways of manipulating stocks is casino kalokalo economics...we should return to basics, even if it will hurt us for a while.  Again, remember that a nation cannot develop only on foreign investment.".........Dr Aluko.

Edwin

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[Leye Ige]

"(1) plasmodium parasite causes sickness is a valid statement.(2) Sickness is due to plasmodium parasite would not be a valid statement.
(3) While a particular sickness maybe caused by plasmodium parasite, there are many other causes of sickness other than plasmodium parasite."--Joe Attueyi

1 & 2 are both valid, in so far as "sickness" is NOT specified. Plasmodium parasite causes sickness(what sickness?); sickness is due to plasmodium parasite(again what sickness?). That is why "context" ALWAYS matter.

Hence, when Joe Attueyi now writes: "There are many causes of corruption. My statement is specific that Bureaucratic allocation of economic resources is definitely a cause of corruption", it invalidates his earlier assertions in 1 & 2, outside specifying the "sickness"--for here, he says "bureaucratic allocation is definitely A cause of corruption"--which implies other causes exist. Such that if plasmodium parasite causes sickness is valid, sickness is due to plasmodium parasite is also valid, otherwise, it will be enough to ascribe bureaucratic allocation as the cause of ALL corruption, which, empirically, is not so.
Leye Ige
--------------------------------------------
On Wed, 12/2/15, 'Joe Attueyi' via NaijaEvent <naija...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

Subject: Re: [africanworldforum] On the Matter of the Relative Quality of Foreign and Local Investments. {Re: Re: Nigeria's Stocks Fall to Three-Year Low as Foreigners Exit
To: africanw...@googlegroups.com
Cc: "Imperial imperi...@yahoo.com [AfricanWorldForum]" <AfricanW...@yahoogroups.com>, "YanA...@yahoogroups.com" <YanA...@yahoogroups.com>, "OmoOdua" <Omo...@yahoogroups.com>, "Yahoo! Inc." <NIgerianW...@yahoogroups.com>, "naija politics" <NaijaP...@yahoogroups.com>, "Ra'ayi Riga" <raay...@yahoogroups.com>, "USAAfrica Dialogue" <USAAfric...@googlegroups.com>, "niger...@yahoogroups.com" <niger...@yahoogroups.com>, "nigeriaw...@yahoogroups.com" <nigeriaw...@yahoogroups.com>, "Naija...@googlegroups.com" <Naija...@googlegroups.com>, "Bring Your Baseball Bat" <naijao...@yahoogroups.com>, "ALUKO Mobolaji" <alu...@gmail.com>
Date: Wednesday, December 2, 2015, 8:07 AM

Prof
AlukoIn your

this century.The Nigerian Stock Exchange All

Almost two stocks declined for every one that
rose. Guaranty Trust
Bank Plc, the nation’s biggest lender by market
capitalization, dropped
2.7 percent to 20 naira ($0.10). The stock is down 21
percent this year,
about the same as the overall index. That’s the biggest
fall in
sub-Saharan Africa after the Zimbabwe Industrial Index.
Specialist
African funds including Alquity Investment Management Ltd.
and Duet
Asset Management Ltd. have lowered their Nigerian exposure
because they
think that central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele will be
forced to
devalue the naira, which would cause losses on holdings in
foreign-currency terms. Last week’s interest
rate cut
by the central bank, its first in six years, will heap more
pressure on
the currency, according to David McIlroy, Alquity’s chief
investment

officer.The naira was unchanged at 199.05 per

dollar and has been
all but fixed at 198 to 199 since early March. Forward
prices suggest

it will weaken to 241.25 in a year.Pressure on

Thanks,Anthony Ayodele

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Posted by: Imperial <imperi...@yahoo.com>

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