CQSRG update report on the 2016 ML5.8 Whitsunday Passage aftershock/reactivation sequence

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Mike Turnbull

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Feb 28, 2022, 9:42:55 PM2/28/22

to earth...@ga.gov.au, Hugh.Gl...@ga.gov.au, Jonathan...@ga.gov.au, Kevin Mccue, Andrew Hammond, Col Lynam, Russell Cuthbertson, Gary Gibson, Dion Weatherley, David Love, weaks...@iinet.net.au, Aeesorg, Vic Dent

Hi Everyone

I have updated the online report of the Whitsunday Passage 2026 ML5.8 aftershock cum reactivation sequence. This can be viewed at https://cqsrg.org/bowen/.

Here is a brief summary.

The sequence is active and ongoing. Every now and again it throws up an event >ML 3.0. This may seem to indicate that it is a relatively benign sequence – HOWEVER …

The CQSRG mapping of the ongoing events indicates that as time has progressed more and more events are occurring in the immediate vicinity of Airlie Beach and Proserpine. This trend has become more apparent over the past 12 months. This has heightened the earthquake hazard in those urbanised areas; and, although the current events are small (<Ml2.5), as the seismicity since 2016 has shown, that there remains the distinct possibility of an event up to ML5.0 occurring in that area. If that were to occur then Airlie Brach and Proserpine would be in the firing line.

The full CQSRG earthquake catalogue is available online at https://cqsrg.org/catalogue/, and I also point out that I have started adding numerous (a couple of hundred?) aftershock event locations for the April 2011 ML 57 event that occurred about 50 km west of Bowen (search in the CQSRG catalogue for events from 1 April 2011 to December 2011). That sequence sems to have stalled in late 2011, and it may well be that the remnant stress from that area was transferred to the Whitsunday Passage area to precipitate the 2016 sequence.

Regards

Michael Lloyd Turnbull BAppSc(Distinction) QUT, MAppSc CQU.

Lead Seismologist, Central Queensland Seismology Research Group (CQSRG).

Adjunct Research Fellow, CQUniversity Australia (CQU).

Member of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society (Since 1997).

Foundation Member of the Seismological Association of Australian (SAA)

Retired Member of the Australian National Committee on Large Dams (ANCOLD)

Member of the Royal Society of Queensland

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Mike Turnbull

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Feb 28, 2022, 9:53:29 PM2/28/22

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Woops, the April 2011 event west of Bowen was NOT an ML 57 (because Oz was not obliterated) ... I estimated it as ML 5.0 (GA put it as ML 4.7 I think).

Mike T

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