FW: Borderlands: The New Strategic Landscape

[John Maunu]

Note George Friedman series of articles beginning with this one on states bordering the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

John Maunu

Email not displaying correctly? View it in your browser. Get this from a friend? Join to receive our free geopolitical intelligence reports directly from us! Borderlands: The New Strategic Landscape By George Friedman I will be leaving this week to visit a string of countries that are now on the front line between Russia and the European Peninsula: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia and Azerbaijan. A tour like that allows you to look at the details of history. But it is impossible to understand those details out of context. The more I think about recent events, the more I realize that what has happened in Ukraine can only be understood by considering European geopolitics since 1914 -- a hundred years ago and the beginning of World War I. In The Guns of August, Barbara Tuchman wrote a superb and accurate story about how World War I began. For her it was a confluence of perception, misperception, personality and decisions. It was about the leaders, and implicit in her story was the idea that World War I was the result of miscalculation and misunderstanding. I suppose that if you focus on the details, then the war might seem unfortunate and avoidable. I take a different view: It was inevitable from the moment Germany united in 1871. When it happened and exactly how it happened was perhaps up to decision-makers. That it would happen was a geopolitical necessity. And understanding that geopolitical necessity gives us a framework for understanding what is happening in Ukraine, and what is likely to happen next. Read more »   Stratfor provides global awareness and guidance to individuals, governments and businesses around the world. We use a unique, intel-based approach to analyze world affairs. Email: feed...@stratfor.com Website: stratfor.com Become a Full Subscriber   |   Unsubscribe Stratfor 221 W 6th St STE 400 Austin, Tx 78701 Add us to your address book