Led Market In India

[Josephina]

Indian government FDI initiatives are concentrated in sectors such as information technology services, software, business services, pharmaceuticals, and industrial equipment. U.S. stock of FDI reached $103 billion during IFY22-23, and the U.S. remained the largest single source of FDI in India for the second consecutive year.

Despite market access concerns, India remains an attractive destination for many U.S. exporters. Many Indian conglomerates stand on par with their international counterparts in sophistication of operations and market prominence. In sectors like information technology, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and engineering, Indian companies are renowned for their ability to innovate and compete. U.S. companies operating in India emphasize that success requires a long-term planning horizon and the ability to adapt strategy to regional conditions. While complex and challenging, the Indian market offers significant opportunities for U.S. companies.

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I get puzzled whenever someone says India has 140cr people & only 9cr demat accounts (6% of the population), & this can grow to 40 crores (25% as in developed nations) over the next few years. Almost everyone building an investing app seems to be sold or selling this idea

The other question for fintechs focusing on investments is how large can the audience that hasn't already invested be? Remember, we've had a bull market, mega ads, freebies, WFH, IPOs, low interest rates, & social media frenzy? If this hasn't got people in, what else can?

Growing this number is the real problem to solve for all of us. Yes, there is incremental wealth created, but that is only within maybe the top 2 crore Indians, easy to miss the fact from our bubbles.

To solve this, the focus should be to do whatever it takes to enable entrepreneurs to build resilient businesses at home. So that they create wealth, share it with employees, shareholders, & invest it back in the economy. From Infy to Tatas to tech startups to lakhs of MSMEs.

Not every business is VC'able or can be valued at $10mil, $100mil, or $1bil. Sustainability is more important than valuation. Misjudging the market size and opportunity, then setting wrong expectations and chasing valuations are probably the biggest reason why startups fail.

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A similar market-based mechanism to promote renewable electricity generation by electricity distribution companies was instituted by the Ministry of Power in 2010 via renewable purchase obligations (RPOs).[vi] Companies that are unable to meet their RPO can comply by purchasing renewable energy certificates (RECs) from other distributors that have exceeded their RPOs. Over time, the market for RECs has been deepened and widened by lowering the access limit to allow more companies and individuals to participate voluntarily, removing market segmentation between various forms of renewable sources, and waiving certain taxes related to interstate transmission charges.[vii]

Currently, there are 36 ETSs in force around the world.[xi] (Important characteristics of the carbon markets in a few selected countries are listed in the tables of the appendix.) By the end of 2023, the total value of traded global markets for regulated carbon permits or ETSs reached $950 billion, with the EU ETS representing 87% of the global total.[xii]

Most cap-and-trade systems aim to lower emissions by enforcing a quantitative limit on the maximum emissions allowed, with the cap lowered over time (see Table A-2 in the appendix). Facilities covered by the regulation need to find a way to limit their emissions within the cap by switching to low-carbon technologies or fuels and buying allowance permits for the excess, if the emissions remain above the cap, either in auctions or in the carbon market.

It is important to manage the supply of carbon credits in the market. Excess supply can lead to a low price of carbon, diminishing the impact of the regulation on emissions. On the other hand, if prices rise too quickly, political support for the policy may be dampened due to the resulting elevated prices for consumers and the adverse impact on the profitability of companies.

The majority of US states use a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) to achieve clean energy targets. RPS programs typically set annual clean energy production levels, but they ignore the significant variations in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of the grid at different times of the day and at different locations.

India is a hub for wind manufacturing and has an existing annual capacity of 10-12 GW. Due to a slowdown in the domestic market in the last few years, this capacity has remained under-utilized. This is going to change as the domestic market is expected to see an increase in tender volumes. Also, the country has an opportunity to translate the projected global supply chain crunch to its advantage by boosting manufacturing capacity in the country.

By the end of 2022, total renewable energy installed in India stood at 121 GW of total installations with wind contributing 35% of this, making India the fourth-largest wind market in the world, in terms of cumulative installed capacity.

India needs accelerated deployment and commissioning of wind power projects if it is expected to achieve 140 GW of wind capacity by 2030, and advance towards the long-term goal of net zero by 2070. The three major drivers of wind growth in India are:

India can play a critical role in supplying the global wind industry. India must address key priorities like technology alignment, convergence in costs, and a supportive tax and incentive regime to enhance its competitiveness in the global wind supply chain.

This is where we see a disconnect between popular opinion and what the data is showing. India has indeed seen recent positive flows, but those flows still pale in comparison to flows into Chinese equities. Contrary to common narratives, China equity funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) have not suffered outflows this year. According to available data on broad funds and ETF positioning, China has actually seen a surge of inflows this year, which is in fact one of the most significant movements of capital into any market since 2020. This follows a trend of very strong flows into China since 2020. Flows into Indian equity funds have been rising but on a much more gradual scale.

When investing into any market, but especially emerging markets, two things matter. The first is overall economic growth. How fast an economy can grow, especially in nominal terms, matters because it affects corporate revenue growth (earnings) and the perception of future potential growth (multiples).

Looking at economic growth, the difference in trajectory is clear. The IMF projects growth in India to remain strong at between 6.2% to 6.5% for the next five years (vs. 3.3%-4.6% for China), while Bloomberg Economics projects India to overtake China as the largest global growth driver as early as 2028 (and by 2037 in a pessimistic scenario). What are the key drivers of this shift in momentum?

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