Excellent Take on Keynesian Economics

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adam loumeau

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Feb 7, 2010, 2:50:52 AM2/7/10
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Many extremely intelligent economists believe in Keynesian economics, which has received a horrible reputation among conservatives.  Here is an excellent take on how this economic theory is actually sound if government were ever capable of properly instituting these principles.




The theory of stimulus is Keynes’s, is (in my opinion) sound, and is as follows. If, because a high rate of unemployment creates pessimism about the economic situation, people increase their savings at the same time that business is reducing its investing—and that is our situation today—the government can by financing projects through borrowing put the inert savings to work (inert because businesses aren’t borrowing people’s savings). The projects require workers, so unemployment falls, and with it pessimism and the cash hoarding, by consumers and businesses alike, that pessimism induces.

 

With Keynes’s theory understood, it becomes possible to list the principles of effective stimulus:

 

  1. The stimulus must be large in order to make a substantial dent in unemployment. The $787 billion stimulus enacted last February may have been too small; a $33 billion jobs subsidy is a drop in the bucket.

 

  1. The stimulus must be implemented before recovery from a depression or recession is well under way—otherwise the government’s borrowing to finance the stimulus will slow the recovery by pushing up interest rates. (That is, at some point in the recovery, business will resume investing and so will be competing with the government for capital.) If enactment of the job subsidy is delayed in Congress, or if procedures for preventing the gaming of the program are cumbersome, the subsidy expenditures may come too late to do any good.

 

  1. The stimulus must be targeted on industries, and areas of the country, in which unemployment is high. Like the $787 billion stimulus, the job-subsidy plan flunks this test as well.

 

  1. Most important, a stimulus is designed to stimulate demand, not supply. The economic problem for which a stimulus program is a solution is insufficient demand relative to the economy’s labor and other resources. Because of overindebtedness and continued weaknesses in the financial system, consumers and businesses are reluctant to spend. Businesses are reluctant to hire (that is one aspect of their reluctance to spend), so unemployment is high and wages are stagnant, which further depresses demand. The idea behind the stimulus is for government demand to take the place of the missing private demand. Government “buys” new roads, in lieu of consumers’ buying SUVs, and contractors meet the government’s demand by hiring unemployed construction workers. The job-subsidy plan is not demand-focused, and so is unlikely to contribute to the economic recovery. Suppose a firm in a depressed economy sells 100 earth-moving machines a year, and employs 200 workers. If the government tells the firm it can save $5,000 on its taxes by increasing its work force to 201, the firm’s total costs will increase (by the wages and benefits of the additional worker less $5,000), but its revenues will not increase because adding a worker does not increase the demand for its product.

 

There is an enormous amount of idle productive capacity in the U.S. economy at present. There is thus a case, as liberal economists such as Paul Krugman keep urging, for further stimulus spending. The problem is that such spending is irresponsible unless coupled with a credible commitment to repay, after the economy recovers, the money borrowed to finance the spending. Not only is there no such commitment; at present the only realistic prospect is of staggering deficits stretching indefinitely into the future. As a result there is at present no stomach for additional stimulus spending. The government is reduced to impotent gestures, of which the job-subsidy plan is one.

William Loumeau

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Feb 7, 2010, 10:33:23 AM2/7/10
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Interesting analyis - well thought out. Economics is never a finite
science almost like the stock market cannot be predicted accurately -
although there are times when many successfully ride the waves they
foresee.

Let's keep in mind that the goal of those in powerful places is not to
fix the economy as we would agree a fix would look like. The goal is
to siphen off wealth from Americans, keep us down rather than upset
about this, and raise certain people's standard or keep it at a
constant level at the expense of those that earned the wealth out of
their own diligence. In short, sort of socialism.

Al Gore and others will rake in trememdous profits if the phony green
movement kicks in as it is scheduled to do.

Health care dominance by government will control us more than we realize.

So, in my opinion, for what it's worth, the econimic theories of
vairous proponents might be used as fodder to deceptively seem to back
up positions of many and actually be the backup for some, I am sort of
ambivalent about these discussions - as I have made clear - and
probably to the dissappointment of some.

Now, when the Savior returns to rule there will be all sorts of policy
makers around and perhaps the Lord will let them deave into some of
these theories....who knows.

On 2/7/10, adam loumeau <adaml...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Many extremely intelligent economists believe in Keynesian economics, which
> has received a horrible reputation among conservatives. Here is an
> excellent take on how this economic theory is actually sound if government
> were ever capable of properly instituting these principles.
>
>
>
>
> The theory of stimulus is Keynes’s, is (in my opinion) sound, and is as
> follows. If, because a high rate of unemployment creates pessimism about the
> economic situation, people increase their savings at the same time that
> business is reducing its investing—and that is our situation today—the
> government can by financing projects through borrowing put the inert savings
> to work (inert because businesses aren’t borrowing people’s savings). The
> projects require workers, so unemployment falls, and with it pessimism and
> the cash hoarding, by consumers and businesses alike, that pessimism
> induces.
>
>
>
> With Keynes’s theory understood, it becomes possible to list the principles
> of effective stimulus:
>
>
>

> 1. The stimulus must be large in order to make a substantial dent in


> unemployment. The $787 billion stimulus enacted last February may have
> been
> too small; a $33 billion jobs subsidy is a drop in the bucket.
>
>
>

> 1. The stimulus must be implemented before recovery from a depression or


> recession is well under way—otherwise the government’s borrowing to
> finance
> the stimulus will slow the recovery by pushing up interest rates. (That
> is,
> at some point in the recovery, business will resume investing and so will
> be
> competing with the government for capital.) If enactment of the job
> subsidy
> is delayed in Congress, or if procedures for preventing the gaming of the
> program are cumbersome, the subsidy expenditures may come too late to do

> *any* good.
>
>
>
> 1. The stimulus must be targeted on industries, and areas of the country,


> in which unemployment is high. Like the $787 billion stimulus, the
> job-subsidy plan flunks this test as well.
>
>
>

> 1. Most important, a stimulus is designed to stimulate demand, not

> --
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>
>


--
Bill Loumeau
Oracle Financials Business Consultant
OracleCPA
760.583.0186

William Loumeau

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Feb 7, 2010, 10:36:46 AM2/7/10
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Tax cuts to business for hiring or keeping employees would do the same thing.

Vivian Branner

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Feb 8, 2010, 12:26:44 PM2/8/10
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I agree with Bill, but thanks for explaining Keynesian economics.
Economics is something I have trouble grasping - so many interrelated
details.

Monique Derr

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Feb 8, 2010, 12:29:28 PM2/8/10
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Ya. I took an intermediate economics course in my undergrad and within a week I switched it out for a statistics course. HARD!!!

adam loumeau

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Feb 8, 2010, 1:06:16 PM2/8/10
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Just to clarify since I didn't make this clear enough, I didn't write this email.  This is a quotation from a professor at the University of Chicago.

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 8, 2010, 2:19:21 PM2/8/10
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Here is why I think Keynesian Economics is fundamentally flawed (a bunch of rubbish):

1.  Sound economics should have nothing to do with elitists deciding how to stimulating demand.  The demand is there.  We all want more, all the time.   The demand is there.  The problem is the misalignment between where and how the mark has invested it's resources and what the consumer demands.  This is what economists call malinvestment; limited resources foolishly employed.  The consumer needs to decide where investment occurs, not central planning.

2.  Sound economics should have nothing to do with elitists trying to stimulate labor "where it is most needed."  The single most scarce resource in the world is labor.  Every natural resource we need (or will ever use) is already on the planet, it just needs human ingenuity to organize it into a usable form.  The consumer needs to decide where labor is most needed, not a central planning committee.

3.  Saving is the single most healthy activity for any economy, healthy or hurting.  Savings enables capitol investment.  Capitol investment enables higher productivity, and thus higher real wages.  Higher productivity and higher real wages are the definition for economic prosperity.  Without savings, at least 2 bad things happen: 

 (A) Capitol is at higher risk of being malinvested due to the cheapness of debt.  This causes people to be more willing to take unwarranted bets because they have less skin in the game, and ties up limited resources and labor where it shouldn't be.   

(B) A single bad decision turns a "rainy day" into bankrupsy.  Every entrepreneur is bound to make a mistake, hence the need to keep liquid by squandering some savings for the inevitable rainy day.  

If you think about it, there is no such thing as inert savings.  The only difference between savings and debt is time.  A debtor promises to pay back the loan plus interest because they are unwilling (in rare cases, unable) to wait.  No savings can just disappear simply due to the fact that it has been saved, and therefore squandered away forever, never again to be put to work.  The only difference is timing.  Eventually all savings will be put to work.  The benefit is that savings are bound to be more wisely invested (more skin in the game, more time to formulate a plan...), and more soundly invested (providing that liquidity safety net for the rainy days ahead).  The economy is currently "frozen" and paranoid precisely because we have not built on sufficient savings.

4.  Government stimulus only weakens the economy by exacerbating the problem of malinvestment.  Malinvestment happens because the market is artificially manipulated, thus skewing the apparent demands of the consumer.  To meet these skewed demands, capitol and labor are foolishly employed.  

5.  Government regulations and bailouts also lead to malinvestment.  People start taking foolish risks since badly formulated regulations create a false sense of sound investment practice.  People start taking foolish risks when bailout money promises to erase the penalty for failure.

Death to elitist Keynesian economics,
Spencer

adam loumeau

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Feb 8, 2010, 3:19:33 PM2/8/10
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Spencer, buddy, where have you been all this time?  Welcome to the party!  I really enjoyed reading your take, although I actually agree (in theory) with the explanation of the University of Chicago professor.  In my opinion, it all boils down to the psychology of the public.  Economic hardship breeds fear and negative momentum in a downward spiral.  A good hypothetical example is eBay.  If a few bad eggs started not delivering on large ticket items, the whole system would likely have an irrational meltdown.  Take a look at Jack-in-the-Box when they had their meat scare.  The safest place to eat once the news broke was probably Jack-in-the-Box, yet they almost went out of business.  People's fears are a lot more powerful psychologically than either their rationality or their drive for personal gain.

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 8, 2010, 4:35:59 PM2/8/10
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Adam,

Glad to be here.  Thanks for the warm welcome.  

Now down to business.  Austrian economics does not neglect the fact that people's behavior will be motivated, in part, by fear.  The main point of the Austrian argument is that no such devastating downturn will ever occur because the market is continuously self-correcting itself - purging malinvestment, re-investing capitol and resources where they are most needed constantly, but on a small scale.

First, you can't negate market fears by stimulus.  Those fears and irrational paranoia will always be there.  Stimulus can only misdirect market fears into inefficiencies - which is due to manipulated, and therefore inaccurate, market information.   

Second, a healthy economy is hardly dependent on one business, such as Jack-in-the-Box.  The overall economy would have continued to chug right along had Jack indeed failed due to silly consumer paranoia.  The continuous self-correcting mechanism of a free market, constantly driving capitol and resources to where they are most needed, is the only way to approach optimal employment of resources.  As soon as one person or group tries to herd the flock to where they think is best, time and resources get wasted.

Spencer

William Loumeau

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Feb 8, 2010, 4:37:27 PM2/8/10
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OK braniacs - nice discussion - while I tend to agree with Spencer's
remarks because they seem to go along with principles that I espouse,
it is still not clear to me that there is NEVER a benefit to some sort
of a stimulus.

I leave the possibility open for that outcome, but beleive that if
there is a way to do it right, politicians would screw it up anyway by
not following the strictly limited application that might work - like
Adam aluded to.

Like I said earlier about tax cuts - the reason I think this works is
that it puts money into the marketplace into the hands of those that
use money as a tool to increase wealth - much like the parable of the
talents.

The fundamental problem I have with government medling is that they
think they can decide how and where to spend the money when
entrepreneurs of successful companies probably know better. So if you
give a tax cut to these businesses for hiring or a payroll tax holiday
then you put money into their hands as long as they hire more people -
if they can put them to productive use.

Some business out there will need more employees if they are 'cheaper'
and payroll tax cuts makes them cheaper.

The government would surely get a higher return on that 'investment'
than if they decided where to spend the money.

It is power hungry, vain, conceited, narcisitic politician ego that
causes the type of hyped up rhetoric wherein we hear that some program
will help the economy. More probable is that the program scratches
someone's back for a quid-pro-quo or indirect delayed benefit to the
joker proposing it. Or it is just plain designed to placate theire
constituents who are still looking for 'that dollar'.

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William Loumeau

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Feb 8, 2010, 4:42:14 PM2/8/10
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By the way, Adam...do you know where the dollar is?

adam loumeau

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Feb 8, 2010, 4:48:06 PM2/8/10
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"The main point of the Austrian argument is that no such devastating downturn will ever occur because the market is continuously self-correcting itself"

I'm no expert on economics but I think the Great Depression and other economic downturns shoots a hole in that statement.  The market is amazing and dynamic, just like eBay, but human fear is too powerful without a stabilizing force at times.  I absolutely believe had the Wall Street bailout not happened we would be looking at another Great Depression.


"Stimulus can only misdirect market fears into inefficiencies - which is due to manipulated, and therefore inaccurate, market information."

That's simply not true.  Stimulus from the government can definitely accomplish goals that the private sector cannot accomplish, at least not as easily.  Now, how much the theoretical actually translates into reality is another discussion.


"Second, a healthy economy is hardly dependent on one business, such as Jack-in-the-Box."

You should read the book Too Big to Fail.  There is no question in my mind from everything that I have read that had a few enormous companies failed our economy and the global economy would have melted down.  These companies on Wall Street are obscenely huge and influential.

I like your comments Bill.  There are some concerns about government incentives toward business hiring, such as companies firing employees they normally wouldn't so they can get a bump from hiring other employees.  I am sure there are ways to close such loop holes but again, we are leaving it up to Washington to do the job.  Yikes.

adam loumeau

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Feb 8, 2010, 4:49:06 PM2/8/10
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The dollar is with my wife.  I have learned that's where all money ends up :)

William Loumeau

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Feb 8, 2010, 5:30:35 PM2/8/10
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Firing and then re-hiring is something that I did not consider - one
thing that is in play though, is that churning employees has a cost
also. Unless we are talking about simple jobs with little startup cost
there would not be much churning going on.

Also, the tax cut or holiday could have a provision that in order to
qualify the employer must check a box stating that there was no
churning going on and that all new jobs must be listed with the person
who previously held the job and why that person is no longer there -
or something like that.

But more to the point - the tax holiday should be for new hires that
do not replace anyone.

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Vivian Branner

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Feb 8, 2010, 6:00:35 PM2/8/10
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In the book I'm reading - VISION OF THE ANOINTED - he talks about how
the "wisdom of the few, the elite" used to "fix" a problem is always
less wise than the "integrity of social processes," meaning, that
which happens naturally, without intervention. No matter how smart
any given person or group of people is, their knowledge at any given
time about any given situation and the repercussions of the decisions
they are making is so very limited, that it will always make things
worse than allowing the market to fix itself. (Besides the fact, as
Bill pointed out, there are some in high places who's interest is not
to fix the market but to benefit from the crisis). Of course, this
means that some entities will fail. Adam, the author also points out
that there is no company who we cannot afford to have fail. There
will always be others to fill in the gap. some will suffer from the
failures. I guess that's part of life.

On Mon, Feb 8, 2010 at 2:30 PM, William Loumeau

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 8, 2010, 11:59:00 PM2/8/10
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I agree with all your points, Vivian.  And yours, Bill, that there are nefarious "leaders" encouraging poisoned policies to promote their personal gain.
 
Adam, I think we disagree on a few fundamental assumptions.  I'll try to identify those.  I disagree with all of the following, while I gather from your response that you would tend to agree.
 
1.  The Great Depression was brought on because of laissez-faire.
2.  The current economic mess was brought on because of laissez-faire.
3.  It is possible for a group of a few to make wiser decisions than the conglomerate. 
4.  Human's desires, needs, and rational can be fundamentall altered by passing a stimulus bill, or by some other form of planned economy.
5.  We are no longer headed for a severe and deep economic depression.  The bailouts saved us.
 
Lots of good reading and listening material has influenced my thoughts here.  If you search "great depression" on the misesmedia youtube channel and the mises.org website you get lots of great stuff. 
 
If you're interested in my more specific thoughts on any of these I'll put together a defence, but right now it just seems like way too much work. 

adam loumeau

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Feb 9, 2010, 4:05:46 AM2/9/10
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Good responses.  To start, let me address Spencer's point about the Great Depression being caused by laissez-faire politics.  I don't think there is any debate among historians that this is the case.  In fact, Ben Bernanke is the leading expert in the entire world on the Great Depression and he feels it was caused by lack of government intervention.  Bernanke is not a liberal or an elitist by any stretch of the imagination.  Furthermore, Henry Paulson feels the same way and he is without question brilliant, knowledgeable, and conservative.  The last thing Paulson wanted to do was a bailout but he became so convinced of its necessity that he felt he had no choice.  I have a hard time taking seriously any "experts" who say otherwise.  The Great Depression was certainly prolonged by FDR's ridiculous swing the other direction into bastardized Keynesian economics but that is an entirely separate issue.

Vivian, I am glad you brought up elites trying to fix our society with their wisdom.  I don't disagree that the market will always be better off compared to the well-intentioned meddling of the elites.  However, the bailout and pure Keynesian economics have nothing to do with elitists trying to fix the economy with their wisdom.  I'll give you an example.  We think of policemen as agents of enforcement for wrongdoing and removing criminals from living amongst us but a more basic function than that is keeping social order.  When New York City was experiencing record crime rates, newly elected mayor Rudy Giuliani decided to significantly increase the number of policemen and started cracking down on smaller crimes in hopes of getting more criminals off the streets and keeping social order.  We could argue this is yet another example of some elitist thinking he knows better than us.  Who does he think he is flooding New York City with cops and strictly enforcing laws that were not strictly enforced anywhere else?  The flaw in this logic is that the most fundamental purpose of government is to maintain social order, to protect against fear-induced anarchy.  THAT is what the bailout did.  It was the police force maintaining social order in the midst of panic and anarchy.

Finally, in response to Vivian's comment about no company being so important that they can't fail, I wouldn't argue that.  However, there are several companies in the financial sector who are so huge that if they all failed in a domino effect then our economy would undoubtedly collapse.  We came very very close to that horror scenario playing out in real life.  If you guys are interested, I highly recommend the book Too Big to Fail.  There is a fair amount of bad language but if you can get past that, you will find the book to be both a page turner and insightful on what actually led up to the Wall Street bailout.  I promise your opinion will change.

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 9, 2010, 12:41:38 PM2/9/10
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Adam, this so called economic expert, Ben Bernanke, hadn't the slightest idea of the upcoming economic recession.  Check this little video out.  The guy, in my opinion, is either clueless or diabolical.  The housing bubble, the credit bubble, the upcoming currency crisis are all very recent examples of how Keynesian economic policies are fundamentally flawed.

There is PLENTY of debate among historians concerning the cause of the Great Depression.  Like I said, check out mises.org.  These are the economists that DID see the Great Depression coming, the 1970's crisis coming, the housing bubble coming.  Who is the expert?  The guy who was totally blindsided by the "mysterious" economic collapse that "nobody" could have seen coming, or the guy who saw it coming from 10 years away?  Austrian economists consistently warned, and laid out in specific detail, how and why we were facing upcoming economic ruin because of Keynesian economic policies and government interference.  Those events played out just as promised, and so will future economic ruin if Bernanke doesn't get his fingers off the "PRINT" button.  Austrian economic principles (free market) are the ONLY fundamentals that are backed by history.  Seriously, look into it.  When they are embraced, civilization thrives beyond anyones wildest dreams.  When they are ignored civilization crumbles faster than any Keynesian thought possible.  I think you might be surprised about what you find out - what our schools haven't told us.  I was.

You've never heard of the Great Depression of 1920.  Why?  The financial and employment losses were greater than those of the Great Depression of 1929.  The difference was that a robust recovery was in full swing only 12 months later, due to government tax cuts, spending cuts, regulation cuts, and a "lazy" president.  This is acknowledged by die-hard Keynesian economists in their treatments of history, yet for some reason they don't stop and think to reconsider their economic philosophy - lame.  The depression of the 1930's was drug out by government for more than 12 years by the very policies that were supposed to fix it.  Just humor me and look into it.  These guys at mises.org have enough data and historical support to make you cry for mama.  I did. 


Economic Expert and Person of the Year indeed!  Bah!

With love,
Spencer

Monique Derr

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Feb 9, 2010, 12:47:15 PM2/9/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com

I just want to jump in here and say- that I have absolutely no idea what to say! I just love reading and learning. Keep up this great debate!

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 9, 2010, 12:50:51 PM2/9/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
The reason these "Too Big to Fails" exist in the first place is because of government intervention - housing tax credits and subsidies, mortgage manipulation, credit expansion, FDIC...The government (Keynesian policies) CAUSED it!  

I disagree that people are so helpless, so paranoid, that all would come crashing down if it weren't for the wise benevolence of our superiors.  "Teach them correct principles and they will govern themselves."

I will read "Too Big to Fail."  Thanks for the recommendation.  

You assume, Adam, that the bailouts fixed our economic predicament.  I am persuaded to believe that it has only delayed the great fall, and so made the catastrophe to come that much worse.  

Again, with love,
Spencer

On Tue, Feb 9, 2010 at 1:05 AM, adam loumeau <adaml...@gmail.com> wrote:

diego

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Feb 9, 2010, 1:16:00 PM2/9/10
to Adam's Discussions
I'm with Spencer on this one. And Monique I hear you. I don't know
what to say either.

Keep up the good work guys. This is great.

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> >>> >
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William Loumeau

unread,
Feb 9, 2010, 1:21:52 PM2/9/10
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Monique, Keyne was an economist that espoused the notion that
government monetary policies and other interventions into the
marketplace could positively affect the economy. It genrally runs
contrary to conservative economic views.

Milton Friedman is a conservative economist of fame.

FDR initiated massive government programs and many "progressives" that
infiltrate higher education have touted Keynesian economics as the
thing to look towards.

Economics uses graphs with alebraic and calculus functions to try to
prove theories.

Not everything can be projected through mathematical equations
although they appear to be valid mathematically.

Also, rhetoric and political slant can come into play when talking
economics and if one is not careful, one finds himself hunting down a
missing dollar that isn't there at all.

>>>> >>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>


>>>> >
>>>> >>> >
>>>> >>> >>>> .
>>>> >>> >>>> >> For more options, visit this group at
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>>>> >>> >>>> >>
>>>> >>> >>>> >>
>>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>> >>> >>>> > --
>>>> >>> >>>> > Bill Loumeau
>>>> >>> >>>> > Oracle Financials Business Consultant
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>>>> >

>>>> >>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>


>>>> >
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>>>> >>> >>>> .
>>>> >>> >>>> > For more options, visit this group at
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>>>> >

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>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>


>>>> >
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>>>> >>> >>>> .
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>>>> >

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>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>


>>>> >
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>>>> >>> >>> .
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William Loumeau

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Feb 9, 2010, 1:31:31 PM2/9/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
This is my opinion - few democratic positions, proposed laws, etc,
today follow any disciplined logic. Keynesian economics will be
quoted when convenient only.

There is disingenuineness in their points of view - all down the line.

Conservative views are generally much more based on caveats, principles etc.

So even if Keynesian economics has merit, it would not be followed by
these dishonest folks.

They want to change the US population to be subservient and lose their
traditional sense of self-determination. That is the goal not any
specific economic theory.

It is good to understand economics in my view, primarily to know that
'leaving things alone' is the best approach to most everything.

Our consitition gives us the right to do things which we can deletate
to a represenatative government. That goevernment had no rigthts other
than those the people first had to delegate to them.

Hence they can protect us (police, army) build our streets, sidewalks
and bridges, etc.) If we don't have the right to put our hands in our
neighbors' pocket and pull out cash to feed our family, then we cannot
delegate that (non) right to the government.

Simple as that.

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 9, 2010, 1:39:14 PM2/9/10
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Good stuff, Bill. Aye!

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 9, 2010, 1:55:08 PM2/9/10
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I would add, though, that Austrian economics is freedom.  They certainly are not politics as usual.  That's what draws me to it.  The economic philosophy is founded in freedom and agency.

Watch this video, The Misesian Vision.  I think you'll like it.  Especially you, Bill.

adam loumeau

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Feb 9, 2010, 3:50:10 PM2/9/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Spencer, you've got to be kidding me.  What does Peter Schiff's prediction have anything to do with Ben Bernanke?  Peter Schiff is the only human being on the planet who was predicting this on TV.  I love Schiff but to somehow say every other person in the world is an idiot or diabolical because they didn't see the same thing as him is crazy talk.  This is monday morning quarterbacking at its very worst and it's not just you Spencer.  The TV talking heads keep repeating the same message, as if no one listened to their warning voice leading up to the crisis.  Hank Paulson knew more insider information leading up to the financial crises then anyone else in the world and he was blindsided.

Now to be clear, there are people who predicted economic hardship based on the housing bubble but that is different from what I am talking about.  The housing bubble is only part of the problem.  From that perspective, you are right.  But that's not what I am talking about here.  The deregulation on Wall Street also played a huge part (i.e. too much free market).  The financial sector was allowed to have companies that were too big, making reckless decisions, and it was the initial trigger that started this mess.  Conservatives want to talk about the housing bubble all day long and liberals want to just talk about Wall Street.  Both caused our current predicament.


"Austrian economists consistently warned, and laid out in specific detail, how and why we were facing upcoming economic ruin because of Keynesian economic policies and government interference."

Not Keynesian economics the way I support it.  Read the quote again that I sent in the original email.  The specific context for that quote is in the midst of an economic recession.  I am not even sure if you can call the previous government interference Keynesian economics.


"There is PLENTY of debate among historians concerning the cause of the Great Depression."

There is plenty of debate among historians about made the Great Depression so great (i.e. so long).  Like I said before, conservatives like me will say all day long it was FDR's fault for having such an out-of-control, wasteful, illogical government spending spree.  And there is perhaps a debate over the very initial triggers that caused Black Tuesday.  But I am not aware of any debate over whether Herbert Hoover's lack of government intervention was a good or bad idea.

To be clear, what I have supported is not at odds with the free market at all.  Hank Paulson is a huge believer in free markets.  He also believes without a doubt Wall Street needed a bailout.  They aren't opposing views, good vs. evil.  I am an enormous believer in the free market.  But there are instances where that has gotten us into serious trouble.  The lack of regulation by Christopher Cox meant Wall Street was trading derivatives they didn't understand (and neither did Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke for that matter, which is insane) and over leveraging their companies to the point of teetering, all in the name of earning a few extra bucks.  Our economic system is too complex, with individual companies being allowed to get too big, to let them do whatever they want.  Even most conservative economists would say that is madness.


"I disagree that people are so helpless, so paranoid, that all would come crashing down if it weren't for the wise benevolence of our superiors."

For that, I suggest you stop reading material written by economists and start reading books on psychology and the social sciences.  Yelling fire in a crowded movie theater is a principle every bit as applicable to the economy as it is to every other aspect of our lives.  I would like to hear a response regarding the police analogy I made.  Are you avoiding it on purpose?  Do you feel my analogy is off?  If so, why?  I think that would help bridge the gap between our disagreements.

Spencer, I won't claim I know everything about these economic issues.  I also won't claim you know some things that I don't.  This is a great debate.  Thanks for joining in so passionately.  You make sound points.  I just feel the issue is more complex than we sometimes want to acknowledge.  Please read Too Big to Fail.  I promise your opinion will be changed at least a little bit.

adam loumeau

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Feb 9, 2010, 3:53:42 PM2/9/10
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"I also won't claim you know some things that I don't"

Wow, it's a good thing I proofread my email afterward.  I meant to say I won't claim you don't know some things that I am unaware of.  I was trying to give you credit.

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 9, 2010, 8:51:18 PM2/9/10
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Adam, I knew you were giving me credit.  I actually didn't notice the typo until after I had read your follow up email.

What does Peter have to do with Ben?  Everything.  They espouse two totally different economic philosophies, one fundamentally contradictory of the other.  They cannot both be right.  Keynesians claim central planning is the optimal approach for the pursuit of the economic ideal.  Austrians claim free market is the best answer.  Peter was not the only one predicting the housing bubble.  Austrian economists across the board were warning, in painful detail, of the upcoming crisis.  They continue to do so.  It's not over.  The point I am trying to make is that economists formulate policies and predictions based on a certain set of assumptions.  Depending on the school of thought, these assumptions are completely different for different economists.  It seems to me that the Keynesian assumption set sucks.

Is it any wonder that our public school system, sponsered by the government, decided to completely ignore Austrian economic philosophy (arriving on the scene in 1919) and preach Keynesian principles (arriving in 1936) as gospel.  The very year that Keynes published his famous book "The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money" our government was swept off their feet and began preaching it in schools as the official economic doctrine.  Austrian economics would be the death of the state.  Keysianism is the state's very lifeblood.  To me, that is more apparent now than ever.  Government is in bed with big business.   When Hank Paulson gets a $37 million compensation package in 2005, just moments before the big crash, I begin to question his good intentions toward general economic health.  His economic assumption set either sucks, or he was looking out for number 1 the best he knew how given the playing field at the time.  

My main point is that government intervention is what caused the "too big to fails" in the first place.  Credit was too cheap, housing projects were subsidized, mortgages were incentivized by tax benefits, government agencies Freddie and Fannie guaranteed junk loans...It was all a huge scandal.  Of course corruption exists.  That is why we need the free market to keep business in check with the ever-looming threat of failure.  Not the appearance of government-regulated-business-health, all the while promising to come to the rescue when failure threatens.  

So, you've got 
  • the FED giving the "free market" cheap credit, encouraging risk and leveraging in the private sector
  • the government agencies, Freddie and Fannie, stamping a US Government guarantee on mortgages they KNOW people cannot afford to be packaged and sold by the banks on the "free market" as a mortgage backed security, worldwide.
  • the government telling the "free market" what lending qualification guidelines should be
  • the government promising to bailout any bank from failure in the "free market"
And they still claim the "free market" is at fault.  Of course the "free market" went crazy.  They were pumped full of cheap booze, and promised by a government AAA guarantee that it wouldn't hurt in the morning.

You said conservatives want to blame the government, and liberals want to blame Wall Street.  I say it's their adulterous relationship that's to blame.  They are stuffing each other's pockets, and we're forced to pick up the tab, at gunpoint.

Concerning the Great Depression debate, this is what Hoover said in his 1932 campaign:

we might have done nothing. That would have been utter ruin. Instead we met the situation with proposals to private business and to Congress of the most gigantic program of economic defense and counterattack ever evolved in the history of the Republic. We put it into action. . . . No government in Washington has hitherto considered that it held so broad a responsibility for leadership in such times. . . . For the first time in the history of depression, dividends, profits, and the cost of living, have been reduced before wages have suffered. . . . They were maintained until the cost of living had decreased and the profits had practically vanished. They are now the highest real wages in the world.

Creating new jobs and giving to the whole system a new breath of life; nothing has ever been devised in our history which has done more for . . . "the common run of men and women." Some of the reactionary economists urged that we should allow the liquidation to take its course until we had found bottom. . . . We determined that we would not follow the advice of the bitter-end liquidationists and see the whole body of debtors of the United States brought to bankruptcy and the savings of our people brought to destruction.

Summary, Hoover embraced government intervention economics on an enormous scale to combat the threat of depression.  The criticism he gets is for not spending enough, but he did violate free market principles, big time.  Here's an excerpt criticizing Hoover's interventional policies.

I disagree that government intervention and free market are not opposing views.  I see them as mutually exclusive.  As soon as central planning intervenes, free market is dead.  The only regulation that I see the government being able to enforce without adulterating the free market are those which guarantee everyone's right to life, liberty, and property.  

Free market is a beautiful thing.  In a Free Market you seek to do as much good for as many people as possible, for that is how you make money.  The same goes for me - I seek to employ my capacity to produce the most good for the most people possible.  The only other way to obtain wealth is to steal it, either by force or deceit.  Any violation of life, liberty, or property obviously needs to be disciplined.    Wealth, in a free market, is not a privilege, but a stewardship.  As soon as a rich man ceases to employ his resources in efficient production for the general benefit of the consumer, he begins to loose his wealth.    

I don't yet see how unregulated markets would lead to madness.  I see quite the opposite.  If Frank is the best at producing cars, let his business get as big as he wants.  He is only able to grow his business insofar as he is a benefit to society.  Competition would naturally try to capture his overwhelming market share, but this would only happen (and should only happen, in my opinion) when a competitor finds a way to better please the consumer.  If competition gains market share via any other avenue, other than being legitimately better than Frank, I would argue that rights to life, liberty and property have been violated.  In a free market I don't see how anything could be too big to fail, ever.  Of course, I'm open to enlightenment here.

For some reason, people think it is OK to steal from another person if legislation is passed which allows the law to do it.  We do it with the progressive income tax, with the labor unions, with the bailouts, with the pet projects, the special interests, even with "free market" regulation.  Ever wonder why the largest producers push for more regulation?  It is because it benefits them.  How?  Their volumes are large enough to operate on ever-decreasing profit margins, while such regulations are mortal wounds to their smaller competition - violation of the right to property, the right to legitimately compete.  The government doesn't catch mouse poop in a box of Cheerios, little Suzie does.  And guess what, one phone call from little Suzie about mouse poop is enough to scare the people poop out of the big whigs sitting in the Cheerio corner offices.

And now the part you may have been waiting for - the NY police.  "What else is to be concluded, sir, that you first make theeves and then punish them."  Government intervention did solve a problem, but what was the problem and why?  What if self-sufficiency were encouraged in NY instead of welfare?  What if young adults assumed responsibility for their educational and career goals because free market consequences offered limitless rewards or starvation?  What if everybody had the power to protect themselves from the threat of violence instead of only the police and the bad guys?  What if it were not illegal for people of low productive capacity to work - depriving them of opportunities to be mentored in a productive capacity, making poor families poorer (what's worse, working for a low wage or no wage), forcing them to the street and to violence?

Of course, I could certainly do with a good dose of human psychology.  I am eager to start looking at this stuff from this enlightening and fresh perspective.  

The public library is now holding Too Big to Fail for Spencer Hanson!  Yes!

Spencer  

adam loumeau

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Feb 10, 2010, 2:07:30 AM2/10/10
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"They cannot both be right.  Keynesians claim central planning is the optimal approach for the pursuit of the economic ideal.  Austrians claim free market is the best answer."

Yes they can.  Again, this is not good vs. evil.  There are instances where Keynesian principles make more sense than others.  For the most part, I am very much a fan of the free market but not every situation all the time.  There is a reason so many incredibly intelligent and non-ideological people favor some Keynesian principles.  In addition, even staunch conservatives understand the importance of at least some regulation in the market.


"Peter was not the only one predicting the housing bubble."

He was the only person on TV predicting financial doom.  Furthermore, I did not say he was the only person who thought there was a housing bubble that was going to burst.  But it isn't like the toxic mortgages were Ben Bernanke's doing.  Congress pushed for loosening the lending practices.  This was a political move, not a calculated economic move.  No one saw Wall Street melting down, although the rampant deregulation was part of the reason the government didn't see it coming.  They didn't do enough regulation and the free market took us over a cliff.


"It seems to me that the Keynesian assumption set sucks."

That is an extremely sweeping statement I simply can't agree with.  Far too simplistic of an interpretation of a very complex subject.  This is why I said before that Keynesian economics has received a bad rap from conservatives.  Corrupt politicians and school administrators used Keynesian reductionism to push their agenda and therefore everything associated with Keynesian principles must be bad.  That's not the way it works.


"When Hank Paulson gets a $37 million compensation package in 2005, just moments before the big crash, I begin to question his good intentions toward general economic health.  His economic assumption set either sucks, or he was looking out for number 1 the best he knew how given the playing field at the time."

I doubt you know Paulson's motivations.  From everything I have read about him, he is not greedy at all by Wall Street standards.  He is quite generous with his money, has been a staunch conservative Republican his whole life, and lives a frugal humble existence given his enormous wealth.


"My main point is that government intervention is what caused the "too big to fails" in the first place.  Credit was too cheap, housing projects were subsidized, mortgages were incentivized by tax benefits, government agencies Freddie and Fannie guaranteed junk loans...It was all a huge scandal."

Spencer, this is only half the story, the half that conservatives want to tell.  I want to be clear about something.  I am not disagreeing with you about this side of the story.  Not at all.  But there is another side of the story that seems to keep getting ignored throughout this conversation.  The part about deregulation, derivatives, and allowing companies in the financial sector to become too big and too intertwined.


"I don't yet see how unregulated markets would lead to madness.  I see quite the opposite.  If Frank is the best at producing cars, let his business get as big as he wants."

Average Joe buying a car has nothing to do with this conversation.  I agree with you.  I am all about free markets.  Deregulation of the financial sector is a different issue.  I didn't say deregulation was madness either.  Allowing irrational fears of short sellers to plunge the stocks of the financial companies is not free market.  That is panic and anarchy.  We are talking about a very specific instance in a very specific market that just so happens to have enormous ramifications for you, me, and everyone else.

You are a stud Spencer and your thinking is sound.  We are partially talking past each other because I am only referring to specific instances while your arguments seem to be more broad.  I also don't believe in hard and fast rules, as much as I proclaim myself to be a libertarian which is a pretty simple straight forward philosophy.  Economics is complex and the solutions sometimes are complex also.

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 10, 2010, 1:38:27 PM2/10/10
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Adam, you're a tough guy to convince.  :)  This has been a fun discussion.  Gave me a chance to really think some things through.  I'm looking forward to reading "Too Big".  Perhaps I'll be more sympathetic to the occasional necessity for central planning.

Yes, a lot of conservatives do understand the importance of some regulation in the market.  I used to be one of those people.  The more I learn, the more I think about it, the less place I see for regulation.  I'll keep learning, though.  I think, perhaps, that the reason so many incredibly intelligent and non-ideological people favor some Keynesian principles is because we have been so long separated from true freedom.  Did you watch Lou Rockwell's speech, "The Misesian Vision?"

I'll admit, I may view economics far too simplistically.  

A lot of my thought lately has been around the similarities and differences between God's way of government and man's.  Man's approach seems to be much more Satanic.  Wait, let me explain.  Man's tendency towards government seems to lean toward forcing good behavior.  

Satan sought to destroy the agency of man.  Surely none would fall under his direction, but give him the power to make it happen.  God's plan maintained the agency of man, his freedom.  It seems that both plans would be subject to the same set of eternal laws.  The difference was why and how man would choose to do good, to obey.  

God's kingdom has a set of laws that must be obeyed if you want to live there.  If the laws are violated, you are either thrust out, or must make reparations and repent using the power of the atonement.  In God's plan prosperity and happiness aren't about regulation and central planning.  It's about each individual governing themselves as they strive to achieve their personally divine potential, being governed only by two great commands - (1) Love God and (2) Love your neighbor.  If somebody is unwilling to obey these 2 commands they are not allowed in the kingdom.  

I see this great debate as being a continuation of the War that began in Heaven.

So, yes Adam, I guess I did just call Keynesianism satanic.  How do like them apples?  No seriously, I'm very interested in everyone's thoughts here.

Spencer

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 10, 2010, 1:43:27 PM2/10/10
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Moses 4:1 - 4 is the scripture reference I had in mind:

and he came before me, saying—Behold, here am I, send me, I will be thy son, and I will dredeem all mankind, that one soul shall not be lost, and surely eI will do it; whereforefgive me thine honor.
  2 But, behold, my Beloved aSon, which was my Beloved and bChosen from the beginning, said unto me—cFather, thy dwill be done, and the eglory be thine forever.
  3 Wherefore, because that aSatan brebelled against me, and sought to destroy the cagency of man, which I, the Lord God, had given him, and also, that I should give unto him mine own power; by the power of mine Only Begotten, I caused that he should be dcast down;
  4 And he became aSatan, yea, even the bdevil, the father of all clies, to ddeceive and to blind men, and to lead them ecaptive at his will, even as many as would not fhearkenunto my voice.

adam loumeau

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Feb 10, 2010, 2:15:47 PM2/10/10
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"The more I learn, the more I think about it, the less place I see for regulation."

In my opinion, this is like saying, "The more I learn about all of the laws we have, the less I see a place for them."  That is actually true.  I am a libertarian.  Way too many laws.  But does that mean all laws are bad just because I keep coming across law after law that is ridiculous and unnecessary?  We have to know what each law is trying to accomplish instead of making sweeping judgments about all of them.

Monique Derr

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Feb 10, 2010, 2:24:01 PM2/10/10
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I have to say, I love the Satan analogy. :) And Spencer is going to read "Too Big to Fail" (I will when I have time). So Adam, are you going to review the sites and videos he recommended to you?

adam loumeau

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Feb 10, 2010, 2:28:50 PM2/10/10
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Oh snap!  I got called out.  I looked at some of the material Spencer sent before and felt I knew the information already.  If he is willing to give me one link to a particular article or video he thinks is best, I would be happy to check it out.

William Loumeau

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Feb 10, 2010, 3:15:44 PM2/10/10
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I sense a lot of brain power and excitement in the air when you,
three, communicate like this.

Escercising the brain is like excercising the body in that instead of
atrophy you get strength.

Three strong heads ... that's what I see.

From a fat-head, anyway.... (that's me for you that are mentally
exhausted and didn't figure that one out)

>>>> son, and I will dredeem <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/1d>


>>>> all
>>>> mankind, that one soul shall not be lost, and surely

>>>> eI<http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/1e> will
>>>> do it; whereforefgive <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/1f> me


>>>> thine honor.
>>>> 2 But, behold, my Beloved

>>>> aSon<http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/2a>,


>>>> which was my Beloved and

>>>> bChosen<http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/2b> from
>>>> the beginning, said unto
>>>> me—cFather<http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/2c>,
>>>> thy dwill <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/2d> be done, and
>>>> the eglory <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/2e> be thine


>>>> forever.
>>>> 3 Wherefore, because that

>>>> aSatan<http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/3a>
>>>> brebelled <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/3b> against me,


>>>> and sought to destroy the

>>>> cagency<http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/3c> of


>>>> man, which I, the Lord God, had given him, and also, that I should give
>>>> unto
>>>> him mine own power; by the power of mine Only Begotten, I caused that he

>>>> should be dcast <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/3d> down;
>>>> 4 And he became aSatan <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/4a>,
>>>> yea, even the bdevil <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/4b>, the
>>>> father of all clies <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/4c>, to d
>>>> deceive <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/4d> and to blind men,
>>>> and to lead them ecaptive <http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/4e>


>>>> at
>>>> his will, even as many as would not

>>>> fhearken<http://scriptures.lds.org/moses/4/moses/4/4f>unto

>>>>>>> - the FED giving the "free market" cheap credit, encouraging risk


>>>>>>> and leveraging in the private sector

>>>>>>> - the government agencies, Freddie and Fannie, stamping a US


>>>>>>> Government guarantee on mortgages they KNOW people cannot afford
>>>>>>> to be
>>>>>>> packaged and sold by the banks on the "free market" as a mortgage
>>>>>>> backed
>>>>>>> security, worldwide.

>>>>>>> - the government telling the "free market" what lending
>>>>>>> qualification guidelines should be
>>>>>>> - the government promising to bailout any bank from failure in the

>>>>>>> time. Here's <http://mises.org/rothbard/AGD/chapter7.asp#fn2> an

>>>>>>>> *their* warning voice leading up to the crisis. Hank Paulson knew

>>>>>>>> But I am not aware of *any* debate over whether Herbert Hoover's

>>>>>>>>> Vision<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCfZcYofve0>.

>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>


>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> .
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > --
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > Bill Loumeau
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > OracleCPA
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > 760.583.0186
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > --
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > You received this message because you are
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>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> Google
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> Groups "Adam's Discussions" group.
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>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >

>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>


>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> .
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> You received this message because you are
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>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >

>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>


>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> .
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> --
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> You received this message because you are subscribed
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>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> Groups
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> "Adam's Discussions" group.
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>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >

>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>


>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> .
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>
>>>>>>>>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> --
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> You received this message because you are subscribed
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>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> Google
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>>>>>>>>>>> >

>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>>>>>>>>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > --
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Bill Loumeau
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > OracleCPA
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > 760.583.0186
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> --

>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Bill Loumeau
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> OracleCPA
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> 760.583.0186
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> --
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to
>>>>>>>>>>> the Google
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> Groups
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> "Adam's Discussions" group.
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>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >

>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> >> --
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>>>>>>>>>>> >>>> Groups
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>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >

Monique Derr

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Feb 10, 2010, 4:02:58 PM2/10/10
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haha, snap indeed!

Paul Cuff

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Feb 10, 2010, 4:30:33 PM2/10/10
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It seems to me that bankruptcy laws in general (or bailouts if you want to call them that) are the cause of much of the problem.  Banks may not have leveraged so much and dealt with derivatives that they didn't fully understand if they weren't backed by gov-influenced insurances (tell me if I'm wrong about this---I'm not sure) and if you weren't exempt from the debts of your company.

I've told the story of my friend in California who was willing to take huge real estate investment risks, personally, because he knew he would either get rich or bankrupt.  If he knew the choices were to get rich or enter slave-labor, he might have chosen differently.

I have been trying to decide whether company owners should be exempt from the debts of their company.  Should stocks be able to turn into debts.  That would be a hard thing to enforce, but it's an interesting thought.  The free market is able to put bankruptcy clauses in loans if they'd like.  But they could also allow the more conservative and responsible borrower to not take out such an insurance policy on their loan and as a consequence get a better lending rate.  It would be interesting to see what practices would emerge if you let people be creative and responsible on their own.

One essential part of a market working well is the availability of good information.  In our time, it might be possible to do this better than in the past.  How many home buyers would have loved to hear more of Peter Schiff and those preaching similar principles before they purchased houses a couple years ago?  I can think of at least three.  But instead he's laughed out of the public conversation by all the well-respected idiots.  We really need some serious changes in the way information is distilled and spread.  This might be the single biggest thing to help the economy, while at the same time deregulating.  Yes, it was popular for banks to jump on the money-trail and trade these confusing derivatives.  But if there was more publicly available conversation about them then investors would have gotten worried and punished the banks by withdrawing their investments.


Spencer, you said that you don't see how anything could be too big to fail.  But there are probably things that are too big to fail quickly.  It takes people and businesses a while to adjust to a new system.  If my credit card stopped giving me credit right now I'd have to adjust because we've been spending a few weeks ahead lately.  Businesses that take out short term loans on the commercial paper money market panicked in Sept. 2008 when the market shut down for a day.  It might be possible that managed bankruptcy is helpful in cases where the business has too much influence.

In 1998 a hedge fund called Long Term Capital Management caused a scare (a small company with Nobel laureates and lots of prestige---read about it in "When Genius Failed").  All the investment banks had given them about $100 billion dollars (total) and when they took a turn south everyone panicked.  The Fed stepped in but avoided a bailout.  Instead, somehow they convinced the investment banks to come together and split the assets.  There was an emergency weekend meeting and the Fed told the CEO's of these banks that they must solve it by Monday or else.

adam loumeau

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Feb 10, 2010, 5:06:59 PM2/10/10
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You make some great points Paul.  I wanted to address your opening statement.


"It seems to me that bankruptcy laws in general (or bailouts if you want to call them that) are the cause of much of the problem.  Banks may not have leveraged so much and dealt with derivatives that they didn't fully understand if they weren't backed by gov-influenced insurances (tell me if I'm wrong about this---I'm not sure) and if you weren't exempt from the debts of your company."

For starters, the bailouts were without precedent, meaning the companies that received bailouts could not have anticipated with confidence ahead of time that they would have this safety net.  Second, Lehman Brothers' execs had the highest ratio of compensation tied up in stocks compared to their financial brethren.  In other words, the execs who had the most motivation to not be reckless were in fact the most self-destructive of all the companies (as outlined in detail in the book Too Big to Fail).  I'd like Spencer to explain how that came to be given the principles of the free market :)

The problem is having a rampant free market that allows all of our well-being to be placed in the hands of an unrestrained few.  And lest you think this unrestrained few is always the brightest and most rational bunch, think again.  Most of the cream that rises to the top of these particular companies, at least lately, have been those who are by nature very aggressive and willing to take huge risks.  They are the money makers 95% of the time.  This is why certain regulation is needed.

William Loumeau

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Feb 10, 2010, 5:40:35 PM2/10/10
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There is no quick answer to any of this. There are too many
"imperfect parts" and too much intervention as it is, monopolies
(airlines, Doctors) legal greed (lawyers and litigation for the sake
of selfish gain), much government regulation with their layers of
beaurocracies, those secret combinations Ezra Taft Benson and the B of
M spoke about and a myriad of other factors that make any
"theoretical' discussion just that.

We might as well be planning for the milenium for that is the first
time we may be able to apply 'clean' principles to work.

For now, this is just an excercise in logical discussion that may or
may not have merit.

For every argument in one direction there are several in the other
then exceptions to that etc etc etc.

Sound like the ancient onological arguement developments with their
ins and outs that make your head spin.

Anyone know what the ontological arguements are all about?

Well this economic discussion, with its spurts of cleverness, sounds
like that to me in that it doesn't amount to a hill of beans for real
world application.

On 2/10/10, adam loumeau <adaml...@gmail.com> wrote:

>>>> - the FED giving the "free market" cheap credit, encouraging risk and


>>>> leveraging in the private sector

>>>> - the government agencies, Freddie and Fannie, stamping a US


>>>> Government guarantee on mortgages they KNOW people cannot afford to
>>>> be
>>>> packaged and sold by the banks on the "free market" as a mortgage
>>>> backed
>>>> security, worldwide.

>>>> - the government telling the "free market" what lending qualification
>>>> guidelines should be
>>>> - the government promising to bailout any bank from failure in the

>>>> time. Here's <http://mises.org/rothbard/AGD/chapter7.asp#fn2> an

>>>>> *their* warning voice leading up to the crisis. Hank Paulson knew more

>>>>> But I am not aware of *any* debate over whether Herbert Hoover's lack

>>>>>> Vision<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCfZcYofve0>.

>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >>
>>>>>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > --
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > Bill Loumeau
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > OracleCPA
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > 760.583.0186
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > --
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > You received this message because you are subscribed
>>>>>>>> to the
>>>>>>>> >>>> Google
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> Groups "Adam's Discussions" group.
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > To post to this group, send email to
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>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
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>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >

>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en
>>>>>>>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> --
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> to
>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>> >>>> Google
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> Groups
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> "Adam's Discussions" group.
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> To post to this group, send email to
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>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> adams-discussi...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >

>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en
>>>>>>>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> --
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>>>>>>>> >>>> Google
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> Groups
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>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >

>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> --
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> You received this message because you are subscribed to
>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> Google
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Groups
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> "Adam's Discussions" group.
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> To post to this group, send email to
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>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
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>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >

>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > --
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Bill Loumeau
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > OracleCPA
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > 760.583.0186
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> --

>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Bill Loumeau
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> OracleCPA
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> 760.583.0186
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> --
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the
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>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >

>>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> For more options, visit this group at
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >>
>>>>>>>> >>>> >> --
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>>>>>>>> Google
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>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>> >

>>>>> To post to this group, send email to adams-di...@googlegroups.com


>>>>> .
>>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
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Paul Cuff

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Feb 10, 2010, 5:44:26 PM2/10/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
That's an interesting piece of information about Lehman Brothers.  However, at the surface, it doesn't satisfy me that that's incentive enough not to take big risks.  As I mentioned, you can't go in debt by owning stock.

Bailout it not a new term on Wall Street.  It's just that bailouts don't usually happen to all banks at once.  And besides that, the ability to go bust without personal consequence is a bailout that always exists because of our laws.  It makes you want to take risk.  It's like a stock-option (which is probably how Lehman was actually getting compensated).  Stock options are worth more if they are more volatile.  The reason is that you can't lose money on the option.  You only exercise it if it goes up.  So you'd rather have an option on a stock that swings all over the place.  If it goes up you're in good shape.  If it goes down then you benefit even more from it being an option rather than an actual stock.  The Black-Scholes formula (used to price options) manifests this relationship very precisely.  The same consequence should occur when you have only to gain and nothing to lose from a business/investment opportunity.

On the other hand, those who have their money in these companies should be aware that the companies have a (government mandated) insurance policy that covers their debts if they go under.  In a sense, all lenders are also insurers by law.  It should make us wary of how businesses will behave in general, knowing that they have this insurance policy.  It's like knowing that your doctor has malpractice insurance.  That should worry us a little, but we usually ignore it.  Now we're back to the information aspect of the market.


Now one for Spenser.  Suppose a company builds a bridge and charges a toll.  Everyone in a large city uses this bridge.  As smart as they are in anticipating disasters and being prepared, a disaster occurs and the bridge is damaged and begins to fail (little by little), while the company has not enough means to repair it.  They've failed.  Should the government step in to save the day with their resources?   After all, if the bridge falls then if will take a while to build a new one (presumably by another company), and everyone will have trouble getting to work in the mean time.

Paul Cuff

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Feb 10, 2010, 5:48:03 PM2/10/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
So Bill, what are you going to do when the Savior puts you in charge of establishing economic policy for His kingdom.  Understanding the theoretical questions is the first step in anchoring our practical abilities.  The theoretical questions are the easy ones.  They are the ones that might actually have a tractable answer.

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 10, 2010, 6:03:47 PM2/10/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
I want Adam to read Human Action, by Ludwig von Mises.  MMMWWWHHHAAAA!  It opened my mind to how the relationship between personal agency and economic prosperity.  You can download the whole 4th edition pdf from the link above for free.  

I obviously agree with Paul that regulation is what caused the unhealthy "free market" behavior.  I use quotes because, as of now, I am convinced that it was nothing close to being true free market.  And yet, Adam continues to call it free market...STOP IT!  It wasn't free market.  

Right the Bailees couldn't have anticipated the bailouts with confidence, unless there were some secret agreements there.  If you read the Book of Mormon, I think you have to agree that this is not an impossibility.  

And yes, it is strange that the excecutives behaved recklessly when they had so much of their compensation tied up in stock.  I'll need to read "Too Big" and learn about these details more in general before I can pretend to understand this.  But just winging some possible explanations:
  • The real risk involved with their "reckless" behavior was not apparent or obvious since interest rates were artificially low.  
  • The real risk involved was not obvious because "regulations" had cleaned up toxic assets.   Fannie and Freddie were stamping AAA ratings on ARMS, for example, that they new would be defaulting only a year into the loan.  
  • They didn't care about knowingly behaving recklessly because the short term gains were promising, even with the threat of bankruptcy.  
  • They are so used to guiding their behavior based on regulations, which give the appearance of safety, that they never stopped to think if they should, only that they could.  

True free market will not ultimately place our well-being in the hands of the unrestrained few.  Read Human Action.  I made mention of it in my previous email.  In a free market, wealth is a stewardship, not a privilege.  The moment the rich man ceases to efficiently employ his resources for the general benefit of our well-being, his wealth begins to evaporate.  Perhaps in our transition from central planning to free market the case would be that the unrestrained few are the rich.  But you and I and everybody wouldn't let that happen for long.  The ideal would be reached very quickly, I think.  All 6.5 billion of us would be voting all day everyday with our dollars and time, deciding just who those responsible rich should be.  And hey, Adam, it might even be you, if you're good enough.

Monique, I'm so glad you liked my Satan analogy!

Paul, I agree that that a transitional strategy to move from a planned to a free market would need to be wisely implemented.  And great point about the availability of information.  This is crucial to an efficient free market.

Spencer

Paul Cuff

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Feb 10, 2010, 6:12:22 PM2/10/10
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Spenser, my bridge story was not meant so much as an analogy.  I really want to know what should be done.  I don't mean that the bridge falling is our current economy as we move to something else.  I think situations like this may come up in a free market.  Is this a situation where government intervention is the correct thing to do?

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 10, 2010, 6:36:35 PM2/10/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Paul, I sent my other email before I read your email with the bridge question.  Should the government, or I'll say even more generally, the public, bail them out (give them the money to fix it)?  Well, what if this bridge company made the fixing of this bridge an investment opportunity to everybody.  Maybe in the form of a loan to be paid back with interest, or ownership in the bridge company, or free usage of any of their roads and bridges for life, or...get creative.  In the future this bridge company would be wise to keep itself more liquid.  I think this unforeseen natural disaster would not only make this particular bridge company more cautious, but also every other bridge company in the world, as well as give more job opportunities to those natural-disaster-predicting-dudes.  I'll keep thinking.  Very interesting.

And I loved the points you made about stock option volatility, limited risk (everything to gain, nothing to loose), and doctor malpractice insurance.  Government regulations seems to always be misused.  But the market would be destined to figure it's own regulations out or fail.  I think we (the world collectively) could figure it out.  I mean heck, we figure out how to misuse government regulations as soon as they're passed.  Oprah only lives in her mansion here in California a certain number of days out of the year - just under the legal amount to be considered a permanent resident.  That way she evades the hefty CA millionaire tax, that she voted for.  Clever.

Spencer

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 10, 2010, 7:24:09 PM2/10/10
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Bill, why wouldn't our discussion of economics amount to a hill of beans?  It's our country, and I say it's time we take it back.  But, if we're going to do this, we better learn how.  I'm not learning about this stuff just because it's fun or because I wan't my brain to have a nice lean six pack.  I'm learning about this so that I can do something about it.  At the very least to know how to vote.

Spencer

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 10, 2010, 8:02:51 PM2/10/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
"There is no quick answer to any of this.  There are too many
"imperfect parts" and too much intervention as it is, monopolies
(airlines, Doctors) legal greed (lawyers and litigation for the sake
of selfish gain), much government regulation with their layers of
beaurocracies, those secret combinations Ezra Taft Benson and the B of
M spoke about and a myriad of other factors that make any
"theoretical' discussion just that."
 
You make it all sound so hopeless, Bill.  As Adam has pointed out, I am in pursuit of a simplistic view of economics.  What if it really is a simple as protecting three self-evident rights:  life, liberty, and property.  If a system of government can be implemented which efficiently protects these three, I think we're set.  I believe all of the details iron themselves out if you give people the right guidelines to live by.  The Savior said only 2 laws:  Love God and love your neighbor.  Again, "teach them correct principles and they will govern themselves."
 
Spencer

William Loumeau

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Feb 10, 2010, 9:54:13 PM2/10/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
To answer Paul as to what I would do if put in charge - I'd hire Spencer.

As far as Spencer's point that the discussions won't mount to a hill
of beans and that I am being hopeless about it - I agree that I do not
have the right attitude when you look at it that way.

The united order will rule when the Savior is here, I think, so Paul's
question might be mute.

Spencer's positions and points of view are very good, in my opinion
and he has logically answered the opposite point of view.

I frankly don;t understand Adam's points - perhaps I don't pay attention enough.

Tricky, sophisticated confusing arguments are usually wrong in my
opinion. I have always done well in school and other academic
discussions about economics, but the real high brow stuff evades me.
So I really can't follow nor do I understand what Adam is really
saying always.

So that is why I have taken the position that appears hopeless. I
guess I am reacting to what appears futile to me - and that may be
because I just have not dedicated myself enough to follow the details
of the arguements.

They sort of sound like looking for the dollar to me.

>> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>

>> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>


>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> .
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> > For more options, visit this group at
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en
>> >>>>>>>> .
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> --
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> You received this message because you are
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> subscribed
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>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >

>> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>


>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> .
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>> For more options, visit this group at
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en
>> >>>>>>>> .
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> --
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>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >

>> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>


>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> .
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> For more options, visit this group at
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>
>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> --
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> You received this message because you are subscribed
>> to
>> >>>>>>>> the
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> Google
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Groups
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> "Adam's Discussions" group.
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> To post to this group, send email to
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> adams-di...@googlegroups.com
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> adams-discussi...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >

>> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> For more options, visit this group at
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > --
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Bill Loumeau
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > OracleCPA
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > 760.583.0186
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> --

>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Bill Loumeau
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> OracleCPA
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> 760.583.0186
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> --
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to
>> the
>> >>>>>>>> Google
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> Groups
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>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >

>> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> For more options, visit this group at
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >> --
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >> You received this message because you are subscribed to
>> the
>> >>>>>>>> Google
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> Groups
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >> "Adam's Discussions" group.
>> >>>>>>>> >>>> >> To post to this group, send email to

>> >> To post to this group, send email to adams-di...@googlegroups.com

adam loumeau

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 3:44:25 AM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
"That's an interesting piece of information about Lehman Brothers.  However, at the surface, it doesn't satisfy me that that's incentive enough not to take big risks.  As I mentioned, you can't go in debt by owning stock."

Let me give you an example Paul to illustrate why I disagree.  Suppose a billionaire was offered to play a form of financial Russian roulette.  The odds are 95% in favor of the billionaire to gain $100 million but there is also a 5% chance that the billionaire will lose everything.  How many billionaires do you think would take those odds?  I'd safely say zero.  Why?  Because the billionaire has already made it.  He has achieved success.  Unlike your acquaintance who is willing to risk his all because at the current moment he doesn't have much to risk, the billionaire has a lot more to lose than to gain by acting to recklessly.  These execs behaved the way they did because they had absolutely no clue the type of risk they were taking.  None whatsoever!

A message for Spencer.  I pride myself on being a free market homer and look at how I sound in this discussion.  I will never fully forgive you for turning me into an elitist whore :)  On a more serious note, while I am excited to read the material you linked, I am not going through 900 pages of material.  Try 50-75 pages.  The book I recommended is both highly entertaining and I can guarantee you don't know the information.  I may read this and find I know and/or already agree with the vast majority of the material.

William Loumeau

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 5:06:59 AM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Adam is referring to marginal returns in that the billionaire doesn't
have great marginal returns to gain $100 million. He has "made it",
so the incentive to gain more isn't as good and the risk of losing
'any' is not worth taking, because the very rich are emotionally
ill-prepared to lose any at all - for they love their wealth so much
that parting with any hurts too much. That is a smart observation,
indeed.

I don't think Adam is an elitist groopy (sonuds nicer), but I do think
that Adam thinks more, reads more and discusses logically better than
most - including myself - so I don't always follow all of his points.
But that doesn't mean I think he is wrong - just that I don't follow
it all.

I hope we all agree that we know we could be wrong and are only
sharing our current viewpoints - which should be able to be changed if
we see a better 'arguement'.

I am open.

>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>

>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>

>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>

>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>


>> >
>> >> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> .
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>> For more options, visit this group at
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>
>> >> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> --
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> You received this message because you are
>> subscribed
>> >> to
>> >> >>>>>>>> the
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> Google
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Groups
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> "Adam's Discussions" group.
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> To post to this group, send email to
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> adams-di...@googlegroups.com
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> adams-discussi...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >

>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >> For more options, visit this group at
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>> >> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > --
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Bill Loumeau
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > OracleCPA
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > 760.583.0186
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> --

>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Bill Loumeau
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> OracleCPA
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> 760.583.0186
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> --
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> You received this message because you are subscribed
>> to
>> >> the
>> >> >>>>>>>> Google
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> Groups
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> "Adam's Discussions" group.
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> To post to this group, send email to
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> adams-di...@googlegroups.com.
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> adams-discussi...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >

>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> .
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> For more options, visit this group at
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >> --
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >> You received this message because you are subscribed
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >> to
>> >> the
>> >> >>>>>>>> Google
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> Groups
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >> "Adam's Discussions" group.
>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >> To post to this group, send email to

>> >> >> .
>> >> >> For more options, visit this group at
>> >> >> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>> >> >>
>> >> >
>> >> > --
>> >> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
>> >> > Groups
>> >> > "Adam's Discussions" group.
>> >> > To post to this group, send email to
>> adams-di...@googlegroups.com.
>> >> > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
>> >> > adams-discussi...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >> .
>> >> > For more options, visit this group at
>> >> > http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en.
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> --
>> >> Bill Loumeau
>> >> Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>> >> OracleCPA
>> >> 760.583.0186
>> >>
>> >> --
>> >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google
>> Groups
>> >> "Adam's Discussions" group.

William Loumeau

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 5:10:29 AM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Econimics is a subject that many smart, wonderfully genuine and honest
loyal Americans disagree on. And nobody is able to acurately predict
things 100% of the time.

Neither the constitution nor scriptures are very replete with
information on this subject either.

So we are left to postulate - or more probably - argue points that
others have already made.

Nothing wrong with that. Kind of like jogging just for the sake of
jogging. I would rather go somewhere.

William Loumeau

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 5:17:04 AM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
The huge problem with the economy - that nobody had mentioned, yet, is
that almost everyone with lots of money was involved with
'derivatives' in a form of gambling that wagered billions of dollars -
pure gambling.

That is definitely against God's commandments.

It is one thing to hedge against risk - where logical solutions are
implemented to minimize loss. Quite another thing to speculate just
for the purpose of gaining a lot of money in the process without any
concern for where the money is invested - I mean without caring about
the entity getting the money and for what it will be used.

Greed was the motive - not protection against loss.

That was the fundamental error in my opinion.

All the fixes after that are like making sure a drunk only drives on a
less populated street so he doesn't have much of a chance of hitting
anyone.

William Loumeau

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 5:28:21 AM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
I once heard someone say something very smart: he said that the US
Constitution was written for honest, genuinely well-motivated people
with protections from those less honest - given the assumption that
the 'good guys' would outnumber the 'bad'.

Once the numbers start to balance out, the US Constitution is not a
guarantee at all.

That is why we started out with the US Constitution AND God - centered
in, trusting in, praying to and living within the gospel tenets of
GOD.

We cannot discuss any of this with much chance of being correct in a
vacuum without bringing God into the discussion.

That is the other big problem with the economy today.

God's ways are above man's ways.

Just because the world is deceived about this fact doesn't mean we should be.

Laura Hanson

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 10:40:30 AM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Yeah, I knew Human Action would be pushing it, but I thought I'd give it a try.  

"Anatomy of the State" and "The Law" are about 50 pages each.  Also, all the videos I recommended are really good.  You could just play them as you're falling asleep for the subliminal messaging effect.

Ha!  Elitist groopy.  I didn't see you that way.  It's good I've had a guy like you to argue the counter for me.  I'm looking forward to "Too Big."  I may change my mind.  But I may come back more passionately free market than ever!  

Bill, you need to give yourself more credit, man.  You are one of the genius dudes out there.  I think you understand everything perfectly well, especially if you agree with me!  :)

Spencer

Laura Hanson

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 10:42:05 AM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Oops, I replied from Laura's email.  Oops, I did it again. :)

Spencer Hanson

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 10:44:38 AM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Adam, do you really want to get into a specific mathematical example with Paul on this one? 
 
Spencer

adam loumeau

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 1:54:22 PM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
I don't see Anatomy of the State.  The Law is in two sections right?

Spencer Hanson

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 2:49:27 PM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
The video, the The Misesian Vision is a great place to start (better than the reading, I think), to get a feel for the underlying philosophy of freedom that Austrian Economics promotes.  Hopefully this video peaks your interest as to the specific arguments and facts that support such a vision of freedom.  Then you can pursue whatever specific material you want from mises.org as your interests guide you.    

If you are interested in the reading, go to mises.org and search "Anatomy of the State" or "The Law" in the Literature section, and the full pdfs will come up.   I'll past the links below, but several people told me they had trouble with the links.



The beginning of the "The Law" was of most interest to me.  He lost me later on as he kept quoting different people to drive his point home.

Spencer

Paul Cuff

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 2:55:19 PM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Great Spencer, make me blush.  The problem is that I often speak without completely thinking things through. :)

Adam, I don't think the situation you suggested is what Lehman was dealing with.  Even if they have more compensation "tied up" in stock options than most other investment banks, that typically only takes 3-5 years to vest.  Most of your wealth is not tied up.  That doesn't mean that many people didn't keep more investment in stock, but we're trying to compare their actions to those at other banks.  So the billionaire doesn't have to have it all tied up in the company.  Suppose that he has even half his money in stock.  It's now looking like a much better deal.  (As long as you hold back at least 25% it's an okay deal.  Optimally, you'd like to hold back 55% of your wealth and bed the company on this risky deal.  If you could make a bet like this every business day of the year you'd have 10 times your money by the end of the year.  Of course, your company would have gone bust (but not you), so you'd have to find another company to play around with).

The bottom line is that I'm not sure stock option incentives have the effect that we naturally think of.  Think about it this way.  If some of your money is in stock options and you're already rich, then you'd like those to have the possibility of making a lot of money, even if it's risky, or else their not very exciting.

Maybe you can illumine the conversation by finding out how much of individual wealth was actually riding in stock at Lehman.

adam loumeau

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 3:18:16 PM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
I should have explained my point further.  You make a good argument but you have to remember that there is more at stake for these execs than just losing a ton of money.  These were their dream jobs and now they've lost them and will never get them back at another company.  Their reputations are shattered, along with all the money they lost.  Believe me, none of them took these risks because the threat of losing the entire company was not enough of a deterrent.  They simply didn't understand the risks they were taking, which is why we need some regulation.

Paul Cuff

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 3:24:19 PM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Are you retreating your claim that the incentives at Lehman Brother's serve as some sort of proof?

adam loumeau

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 3:28:39 PM2/11/10
to adams-di...@googlegroups.com
Haha, no I am not.  But I definitely concede that you make an excellent point that the financial incentives alone may not be enough of an incentive.  Overall, the incentives were enormous.

christopher loumeau

unread,
Feb 11, 2010, 6:15:57 PM2/11/10
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It literally has taken several days for me to read (or at least skim) all of these. I have to say that I side almost entirely with Spencer on this. Adam, you make good points, but I think Spencer has hit the issue dead on and has articulated his arguments very well.....

Spencer Hanson

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Feb 11, 2010, 10:15:43 PM2/11/10
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Some news on the economic front.  I summarized his comments below.  I really hope Peter Schiff gets into the Senate.
 
Trade Deficit:  Our December US trade deficit was >$40.2 billion.  This is BIGGER than before, meaning that American consumption continues to grow beyond the already 70% of our GDP.  Instead of saving money to fix our debt and leverage problems, the FED has successfully incentivized Americans to spend when spending makes the least sense.  
 
Greece:  It looks like the European Union is going to bail out Greece.  The too-big-to-fail mentality is well on it's way to achieving its goal of a world government.  If bailouts continue, Portugal and Spain are next, then California, then other states, then the US.  Finally we will need the all powerful New World Order to "come to our rescue" and save us from evil capitalism.
 
Jobs Bill:  A new bill has been passed that offers a 6% tax credit to businesses that hire somebody that has been out of work for >2 months.  This money is offered to businesses even if this new employee is replacing an old employee who quit or was fired because of probable cause.  This will create NO new jobs, it will only allow politicians to claim all these jobs to their credit.  Think about it, if an employee quit, you would need a replacement anyway, otherwise you would have fired them already.  If you fired an employee because of probable cause, you fired them because they were doing something wrong, not because you don't need them.  In both instances a rehire would be in order anyways.  In the case of offering money to adding an additional employee to your payroll because of the measly 6% tax benefit, businesses probably could have already offered the jobless 6% less salary and found someone glad to work.  In the case of minimum wage earners, businesses will have an incentive to be extra picky and fire whoever they can for "probable cause" to get their 6%. 
 
FED:  The FED is doing everything they can to keep our economy from crashing down.  They are making the appearance of raising interest rates because if they actually tired it, all the financial institutions would be forced to admit they are not liquid.  Ben claims that the FED hasn't lost any money on the TARP money, that they have actually made money.  That is because they haven't tried to sell any of their worthless assets yet.  They are pretending that all their equities are healthy and performing.  Rediculous!
 
I don't know how much longer our economy can take this.  A year?  Till summer time?

Laura Hanson

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Feb 12, 2010, 1:09:22 AM2/12/10
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Speaking of current events, did you guys know that many banks across the country have been running out of money and collecting FDIC insurance, sometimes multiple times?  It's happening a lot and not being talked about.  The FDIC is totally in debt and not sure what to do.  Bank holiday maybe.

William Loumeau

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Feb 12, 2010, 11:24:10 AM2/12/10
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I think Adam is trying to spur on this type of discussion to see the
arguments on both sides and it is wise in that we all get the benefit
of combined wisdom since we each have had different educations and
experiences.

So what's up Steve McQueen?

On 2/12/10, Laura Hanson <hanson...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Speaking of current events, did you guys know that many banks across the
> country have been running out of money and collecting FDIC insurance,
> sometimes multiple times? It's happening a lot and not being talked about.
> The FDIC is totally in debt and not sure what to do. Bank holiday maybe.
>
> On Thu, Feb 11, 2010 at 7:15 PM, Spencer Hanson
> <spenc...@gmail.com>wrote:
>

>> Some news <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFbPN9ktuvI> on the economic

>>>>>>>>>>> adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
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>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >
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>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
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>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > --
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Bill Loumeau
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > OracleCPA
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> > 760.583.0186
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> --

>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Bill Loumeau
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> Oracle Financials Business Consultant
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> OracleCPA
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>> 760.583.0186
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> >>>
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>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> >>>> <

>>>>>>>>>>> adams-discussions%2Bunsu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
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>>>>>>>>>>> >> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
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>>>>>>>>>>> >> >
>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252Buns...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%25252Bun...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com>
>>>>>>>>>>> >
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>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
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William Loumeau

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Feb 12, 2010, 11:25:10 AM2/12/10
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Google Steve McQueen to see that he looks like our own - soon to be
political elected official, probably - Chrissssstopherrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Vivian Branner

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Feb 12, 2010, 3:15:16 PM2/12/10
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Bill, why is there always such a long trailer to your emails?! Can
you get rid of it?

On Fri, Feb 12, 2010 at 8:24 AM, William Loumeau

Paul Cuff

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Feb 12, 2010, 10:08:29 PM2/12/10
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I suspect that Bill is using a email client (not logged in directly to the Gmail web interface) that is modifying the quoted emails somehow.  In reality, all of our emails include the entire text of the whole conversation, but Gmail looks for quoted parts that have already been shown in the conversation, and they conveniently hide if from us.  If it gets modified at all then they won't hide it.

William Loumeau

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Feb 13, 2010, 9:59:13 AM2/13/10
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Yeah - I wish I could get rid of it. I am on gmail on line - don't
really know what that brainiac son of yours is talking about, Vivian.

>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252525...@googlegroups.com>

>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252525...@googlegroups.com>

>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252525...@googlegroups.com>

>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >> <adams-discussions%2525252Bu...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>
>> >
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> <adams-discussions%252525252B...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com>
>> <adams-discussions%25252525252...@googlegroups.com<adams-discussions%252525252525...@googlegroups.com>

>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>> http://groups.google.com/group/adams-discussions?hl=en
>> .
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>>
>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >> >>
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>> >
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--
Bill Loumeau
Proud Member Since 2008
Adam's Discussion Group
760.583.0186

adam loumeau

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Feb 13, 2010, 11:03:24 AM2/13/10
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English Paul.  For crying out loud, English!
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