Predictions/Goals

[ray...@aol.com]

Hmmm, I've been counting. 36 runners entered in the 72 hour. 21 of
them have set 200 or more miles as a goal. (Sure glad we were not
asked for predictions.)

I wonder how many will reach their goals. I'm thinking 10% +/- of
stated goal is success. Lets see how it works out. (You 24 and 48 hour
runners will have to figure out your own success.

I also noted that there have never been more than 10 runners reach 200
miles in 72 hours at ATY. It is sad to think there might be a few
runners starting 2008 disappointed.

We'll talk about 300 miles later.

Ray K

[Lynn Newton]

> Hmmm, I've been counting. 36 runners entered in the 72 hour. 21 of
> them have set 200 or more miles as a goal. (Sure glad we were not
> asked for predictions.)

Last year we had 9 people over 200 miles, also 9 out of
33 the year before.

I've had a little over 300 miles as my goal the last three years,
actually 325 KM, because the first year I declared it, if I'd
gotten it, it would have given me actually 201.some_high_decimal,
which would have been about half a mile more than Don Winkley
got the year he won it outright two or three years before,
at the same age I was that year. I got 180 and 188 for my
two best years, then had physical problems both the last
two years.

This year I kept the same goal, but will not make that in
any way shape or form because moving and adjusting to a
new life has kept me from running.

A couple of years ago Aaron Goldman got over 200 miles at
age 71 I think it was, and that performance inspired me
both the last two years, and made me think that perhaps
I could still hope for 200. And I'd like to think that
if I train right and the circumstances are right and I
go for it within the next year or two, I might be able
to do it. But I'll admit that the dream is staring to
fade.

> I wonder how many will reach their goals. I'm thinking 10% +/- of
> stated goal is success. Lets see how it works out. (You 24 and 48 hour
> runners will have to figure out your own success.

> I also noted that there have never been more than 10 runners reach 200
> miles in 72 hours at ATY. It is sad to think there might be a few
> runners starting 2008 disappointed.

It's only been the last three years that the better runners have been
showing up.

As I look over the list, I count 11 that I would expect to make
200 if they don't have problems.

> We'll talk about 300 miles later.

That takes a Kouros, Geesler, or Mangan. My money would be on
Tony Mangan to take it all this year.

I don't think Paul DeWitt will get 165 miles, not without Jurek
to push him, but I still think he'll win.

And I'd bet Eppelman will win the 48.

But you never know. As Chris Berman says -- that's why they play
the game.

--
Lynn

[DaveE]

> I wonder how many will reach their goals. I'm thinking 10% +/- of
> stated goal is success. Lets see how it works out. (You 24 and 48 hour
> runners will have to figure out your own success.

I've noticed the same thing for the 24 hour race. Many people put 100
miles as their stated goal, but far fewer accomplish that goal. I
have also noticed that those stating goals over 100 miles are far more
accurate in their estimates than those whose goals are less than 100
miles.