H&A Daily Risk Assessment - 21 Apr 2017

[Jakarta Info]

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Please find attached H&A Daily Risk Assessment - 21 Apr 2017

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[Jakarta Info]

Dear Clients,

 

Please find below H&A Daily Risk Assessment - 21 Apr 2017

   

PROSECUTORS RECOMMEND PROBATION FOR AHOK    COUNTRY HEADLINES

Prosecutors have recommended that Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, also known as Ahok, be sentenced to two years’ probation in his blasphemy trial, and a one-year prison term if he repeats the offense or is found guilty of any other crime within the probationary period. Prosecutors argued in a hearing on Thursday 20 April that Purnama had offended Muslims and clerics by citing a verse from the Quran in September last year that he said had been used to urge Muslims not to elect a non-Muslim leader. “Based on the evidence, we demand the judges find the defendant guilty for provoking hostility with his statement. We call for the judges to sentence the defendant to one year in prison with a two year probation period," said chief prosecutor Ali Mukartono, as reported by Kompas. He explained that prosecutors did not request that Purnama be sentenced under Article 156a of the Criminal Code on blasphemy because the intent in Purnama’s speech was not proven. “Prosecutors concluded that the defendant directed the [remarks] to other individuals or political elites in the context of the regional election, not intentionally defaming Islam," said Mukartono. The two year probation recommendation is in line with a lesser charge of provoking hostility and public unrest, which is regulated by Article 156 of the Criminal Code, and carries a maximum prison sentence of four years. Prosecutors also suggested that Purnama should be handed a lighter penalty due to his good behaviour during the trial and as an acknowledgment of his record as governor. If the judges agree with the prosecutors’ sentence recommendation, Purnama will still serve as governor until the end of his term in October. The recommendation was met with anger by hard-line Muslim groups, including the Indonesian Islamic Front (FUI) and the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI). Members of the groups staged a protest outside the court in South Jakarta on Thursday, demanding that the judges ignore the recommendation and instead hand down a five-year prison sentence. “In Islam, the punishment for a blasphemer is death. But we will give the judges a chance. If Purnama is still free, we will take matters into our own hands,” said FUI spokesman Nanang Qosim. Human Rights Watch researcher Andreas Harsono said that the case set a bad precedent for minorities and freedom of expression in Indonesia by allowing the use of Article 156 to silence political opposition. “All the progress we see in Indonesia since reformasi is set back to zero," he said. The blasphemy trial continues on Tuesday 25 April when Purnama will give evidence in his own defence.

TOP ISSUES 

NATIONAL SECURITY | POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Jakarta governor-elect Anies Baswedan met with Purnama at City Hall on Thursday 20 April, a day after his convincing win. (Page 4)

NATIONAL ECONOMY

Bank Indonesia has decided to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.75 percent as it braces for global uncertainty. (Page 5)

Weekend Outlook | Public Holiday Message: At this time there are no indications of any protests scheduled for Saturday 22 April or Sunday 23 April. Hill & Associates will be monitoring developments during the weekend and should any incident occur that gives cause for concern, we will advise clients accordingly. Clients may also contact our Jakarta office (24 hrs) on (021) 522 8811 for the latest situation report or if they wish to report an incident that may be of particular relevance. Hill & Associates’ Security Advisory Bulletin Service (SABS) and Daily Risk Assessment (DRA) will not be issued on Monday 24 April due to the public holiday for the Ascension of the Prophet Muhammad (Isra Mi’raj). Our SMS Alert service will remain operational. Full risk information services will resume on Tuesday 25 April.

PHYSICAL RISKS

HEALTH & DISEASE | FIRE & SAFETY

Two Factories Burn Down in Cikarang

A fire burned down two factories located on Jl. Raya Lemahabang, Cikarang Timur, Bekasi (West Java), early on Thursday 20 April. A police spokesman said that the fire originated in a warehouse owned by PT. Budi Nusa Tata Prima at 0200hrs (WIB) and spread to a plastics factory owned by PT Lami Para Primula Indonesia. It was reported that the fire was sparked by an electrical fault. No casualties were reported.

Sources: Suara Pembaruan | Pos Bekasi.com

POLICE | OPPORTUNIST, ORGANISED & VIOLENT CRIME

Truck Hijacked in East Jakarta

Police on Thursday 20 April arrested one of five men who allegedly hijacked a cargo truck on Jl. Cakung in Cilincing, East Jakarta, on Monday 10 April. A police spokesman said that the other four suspects might have fled to other cities.

Sources: Koran Tempo | Warta Kota | Republika 

Police Arrest Drug Traffickers in Medan 

Police arrested seven drug trafficking suspects in an operation in Medan, North Sumatra, on Wednesday 19 April in which they also seized two kilograms of crystal methamphetamine. Two police officers were injured during the operation.

Source: Suara Pembaruan

Two Detained Over House Robberies in Riau Islands

Police arrested two men for stealing jewellery and cash from a vacant house in Tanjung Pinang, Riau Islands province, on Wednesday 19 April. A police spokesman said that the suspects had been involved in six vacant house robberies in the past two months. Police are searching for three other suspects.

Sources: Suara Pembaruan | Warta Kota  

Body Recovered from Bogor River 

A man’s body was found in the Cisadane river, Bogor (West Java), on Wednesday 19 April. The body was taken to hospital for an autopsy.

Sources: Suara Pembaruan | Warta Kota  

Woman Attacked in Natuna Islands

Police have arrested one man after a woman was found with critical injuries after being robbed and sexually assaulted in Natuna regency, Riau Islands, on Wednesday 19 April. The victim said that she was robbed by an acquaintance she had met via social media a week earlier. A police spokesman said that the suspect drugged the victim, sexually assaulted her, stole her motorcycle and then tried to kill her by throwing her into a well. Police later arrested the suspect at a house in Sedarat Baru village.

Source: Batam News

NATURAL DISASTERS

INDONESIA EARTHQUAKE ALERT FRIDAY 21 APRIL

Day / Date Time

WIB RS Depth

Km Location Remarks

Fri 21 Apr 11.00 5.3 20 103 km SE of Mentawai Islands, West Sumatra No reports of damage, injury or tsunami risk.

Sources: Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) | ASEAN Earthquake Information Centre | USGS

ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE

Floodwaters Inundate Batam 

Heavy rain caused flooding in a number of areas of Batam, Riau Islands, on Thursday 20 April. The worst affected areas were in Batuampar, Batam Centre, Sekupang and Nagoya. Floodwaters up to 50 centimetres deep were reported on Jl. Yos Sudarso and Jl. R. Suprapto. A spokesman for the city administration said that flood points in the city had increased from 37 last year to 50 in 2017. Poor drainage in the city had worsened conditions.

Sources: Tribun Batam | Batam News

INDONESIA HIGH WAVE ALERT FRIDAY 21 APRIL

Height Location Remarks

2.0 – 3.0 m Waters off Sarmi (Papua). Waters to the west of Aceh. Waters to the north of Manokwari (Papua). Waters to the south of Sumba Islands (East Nusa Tenggara/NTT) and Yos Sudarso (Papua).  Waters from Bengkulu to the west of Lampung (southernmost Sumatra). Waters from the south of Java to Sumbawa (West Nusa Tenggara/NTB). Waters from Sawu Islands to Rote Islands (NTT). The western reaches of the Sawu Sea. The central and eastern reaches of the Arafuru Sea.   Hazardous for fishing vessels and motorised wooden vessels.

3.0 – 4.0 m The Indian Ocean from the south of Java to Bali   Hazardous for fishing vessels, motorised wooden vessels, tugboats, LCT and ferries.

Source: Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)

JAKARTA AIR QUALITY INDEX FRIDAY 21 APRIL

    

BUSINESS RISKS

NATIONAL SECURITY | POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Police Question Tommy Suharto in Treason Case 

Jakarta Police recently questioned the son of former president Suharto, Hutomo Mandala Putra, otherwise known as Tommy, as a witness in a treason case after the he failed to show up for questioning on 31 March. Jakarta Police spokesman Sr. Comr. Argo Yuwono said that investigators visited Tommy instead. “We summoned Tommy last week,” said Argo on Thursday 20 April.

Sources: Kompas | Koran Tempo | Media Indonesia 

Comment: Police have named 11 people as suspects in the treason case. They are accused of attempting to agitate people to occupy the parliament building during massive rally on 2 December last year with the aim of forcing the parliament to impeach President Joko Widodo. Among the suspects are Rahmawati Sukarnoputri, the sister of former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, Maj Gen (ret) Kivlan Zein, university lecturer Sri Bintang Pamungkas and human rights activist Ratna Sarumapaet. Tommy allegedly provided funds for their actions.

Parties Prepare for 2018 Regional Elections 

Political observers say that they expect the Jakarta gubernatorial election result will reshape the national political landscape ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Political parties are now preparing for the 2018 regional elections in 171 provinces, regencies and cities, including the country’s three most-populated provinces: West Java, East Java and Central Java. Winning these races is seen as crucial to consolidate electoral power ahead of the 2019 legislative and presidential elections. Some analysts expect flexible partnership among parties ahead of the 2018 elections.

Source: The Jakarta Post

Baswedan Meets Purnama A Day After Victory

Presumptive governor-elect Anies Baswedan met with current governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama at City Hall on Thursday 20 April, a day after his convincing election victory. Baswedan said that he and Purnama discussed several things including reconciliation between their supporters and the 2018 city budget. Baswedan said that he would halt some of Purnama’s controversial policies, including the reclamation project along the city’s northern coast as well as the eviction program. Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs Luhut Panjaitan said that Baswedan should not rush to halt the reclamation plan.

Sources: Kompas | Koran Tempo | The Jakarta Post | Media Indonesia

NATIONAL ECONOMY | FUEL & FOOD SECURITY

BI Keeps Rates on Hold

Bank Indonesia (BI) has decided to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.75 percent as it braces for global uncertainty and domestic challenges from increasing inflation. “The decision is consistent with Bank Indonesia's effort to keep the macroeconomic and financial system stable,” said BI executive director Tirta Segara on Thursday 20 April. Tirta said that the rupiah was 1.09 percent stronger as of 31 March and traded at IDR13,326 against the US dollar on the back of incoming foreign capital in stocks and bonds, which was bolstered by attractive investment opportunities. March inflation was 3.61 percent annually, lower than 3.83 percent in February, but still higher compared to 3.49 percent in January. Bank Indonesia is targeting 3 to 5 percent inflation this year. Tirta said that the central bank will examine global challenges such as the US Fed's plan to start reducing its balance sheet, which may result in strengthening of the dollar and weakening of the rupiah, and other geopolitical uncertainties.

Source: The Jakarta Globe

Economy Grows 4.9 Percent in Q1 

Bank Indonesia (BI) reported on Thursday 20 April that that the economy grew by 4.9 percent in the first quarter of the year, lower than the government target of 5.2 percent. BI governor Agus Martowardojo explained that economic activity was typically slow during the first quarter and will pick up in the second and third quarters. He added that he was confident the government’s growth target would be attainable.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Pence Signs 8 Billion Dollars in Deals During Indonesia Visit

US Vice President Mike Pence signed USD8 billion in business deals in the presence of his Indonesian counterpart Jusuf Kalla during his visit to Jakarta on Thursday 20 April. Minister of Foreign Affairs Retno Marsudi said that the deals cover the energy sector and infrastructure. On Thursday, Pence had a one-on-one meeting with President Joko Widodo at the State Palace. Pence also visited Istiqlal Mosque in Central Jakarta with his wife and two daughters. Pence praised the country’s moderate form of Islam as “an inspiration".

Sources: VOA News | Tempo Interactive | The Jakarta Post

PROVINCIAL AFFAIRS

Central Java: Two Drown at Jepara Water Park

Two people died while swimming at the Jepara Ourland Park (JOP), a water attraction in Jepara, Central Java, on Thursday 20 April. A police spokesman said that a mother and her six year old son drowned while swimming in the wave pool. Police are investigating the incident.

Source: Kompas  

COURTS & JUSTICE | CORRUPTION | FRAUD

Witness Implicates House Speaker in e-KTP Case  

The director of PT Java Trade Utama, Johanes Richard Tanjaya, testified at the Jakarta Anti-Corruption Court on Thursday 20 April that seven percent of the budget for the electronic identity card (e-KTP) project was given to House of Representatives speaker Setya Novanto. The total budget for the project was IDR5.5 trillion (USD 400 million). Two former officials of the Ministry of Home Affairs are on trial for their role in the corruption case. PT Java Trade Utama is among the major contractors for the project.

Sources: Kompas | Koran Tempo | Media Indonesia | Republika

Actor Sentenced to 8 Years in Prison

The Mataram District Court in West Nusa Tenggara on Thursday 20 April found actor Gatot Brajamusti guilty of drug possession and sentenced him to eight years in prison and a fine of IDR1 billion (USD75,075). The sentence is lighter than the 12 years demanded by prosecutors. Meanwhile, Brajamusti’s wife Dewi Aminah was sentenced to one-and-a-half years in prison for drug abuse. Both were arrested at Hotel Golden Tulip in Mataram on 28 August last year. Brajamusti is also being investigated for illegal firearm possession, sexual harrassment, fraud, and human trafficking.

Sources: Antara News | The Jakarta Post | Kompas | Detik | Warta Kota

OTHER RISKS

FOREIGN NATIONALS | EXPATRIATE AFFAIRS

Malaysian Actor Arrested in Medan for Carrying Drugs

Malaysian actor Khaeryll Benjamin Ibrahim, better known as Benjy, was arrested at Kuala Namu International Airport in Deli Serdang, Medan (North Sumatra), after he was allegedly caught carrying drugs on Tuesday 18 April. A customs spokesman said that Benjy, who had arrived in Indonesia via a Malindo Air flight, was carrying 14 grams of methamphetamine. The popular 90s actor has a chequered history with narcotics. In 2010, he was arrested at an apartment in Kepong, Malaysia, in connection with producing and supplying drugs. In 2015, he was arrested twice in the span of one month, also on drug-related offences.

Sources: Batam News | The Sun Daily

CITY | TRAFFIC | LOCAL AFFAIRS

Odd-Even Traffic Policy Reinstated

Jakarta Police and the city administration have reinstated the odd-even license plate policy on the Semanggi-Kuningan section of Jl. Gatot Subroto, South Jakarta from today, Friday 21 April. Authorities temporarily cancelled the police on 10 April to ease congestion in the area during the construction of the Pancoran overpass and Kuningan underpass.

Sources: Warta Kota | Kompas | Berita Jakarta | Liputan 6 | The Jakarta Post

 

UPCOMING EVENTS DIARY

Date Event Public Holiday Remarks

Wed 19 – Fri 21 Apr The  Indonesia International Creative Textile Apparel Accessories Exhibition (INATEX) 2017 No Jakarta International Expo (JIE) Kemayoran

Mon 24 Apr Ascension of Prophet Muhammad (Isra Mi’raj) Yes Observed by Muslims nationwide.

Wed 26 – Sun 30 Apr INACRAFT 2017 No Jakarta Convention Centre (JCC)

Thu 27 Apr – Sun 7 May Indonesia International Motor Show 2017 No Jakarta International Expo (JIE) Kemayoran

Mon 1 May International Labour Day Yes Public Holiday

Thu 11 May   Waisak; Buddha’s Birthday Yes Observed by Buddhists nationwide

Fri 12 May Commemoration of the 19th anniversary of the 12 May 1998 riots. No Widespread riots in Jakarta followed fatal student shootings which have never been fully resolved. Student demonstrations likely in observation of the day.

Thu 25 May Ascension of Jesus Christ Yes Observed by Christians nationwide.

 

COUNTRY RISK RATING – INDONESIA

Terrorism Crime Ethnic, Religious & Social Conflict Health Risks & Services

H (B3) M (C2) H (B3) H (B3)

Natural Disasters Corruption & Fraud Business Ethics & Compliance Utilities & Infrastructure

H (B3) H (B3) H (B3) H (B3)

Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix - Level of Risk:

Probability

Rating Consequence Rating

Insignificant

1 Minor

2 Moderate

3 Major

4 Catastrophic

5

A (almost certain) H H E E E

B (likely) M H H E E

C (possible) L M H E E

D (unlikely) L L M H E

E (rare) L L M H H

Legend:

E Extreme risk Immediate action required

H High risk Senior management attention needed

M Moderate risk Management responsibility must be specified

L Low risk Managed through routine procedures

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