H&A Daily Risk Assessment - 13 Apr 2017

[Jakarta Info]

Dear Clients,

 

Please find attached H&A Daily Risk Assessment - 13 Apr 2017

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[Jakarta Info]

Dear Clients,

 

Please find below H&A Daily Risk Assessment - 13 Apr 2017

  

PURNAMA, BASWEDAN IN TIGHT ELECTION RACE   COUNTRY HEADLINES

The Jakarta gubernatorial election will be an extremely tight race between Anies Baswedan and Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, according to the latest polling published by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC). The survey, which was conducted from 31 March to 5 April, put the electability rating of Baswedan and his running mate Sandiaga Uno at 47.9 percent compared to 46.9 percent for Purnama and Djarot Saiful Hidayat. 5.2 percent of respondents remain undecided. According to the survey, 32.4 percent of Baswedan’s supporters cited “similar religion” as the reason that they would vote for him, while 41 percent of Purnama’s supporters pointed to his “proven track record” as the main reason that they would vote for the incumbent governor. Deny Irvani, the director of research at SMRC, said on Wednesday 12 April that the one percent gap indicated the election was too close to call, although the survey highlighted a positive trend over the past month favouring the incumbent. “The support for Purnama and Hidayat increased 3.1 percent, while support for Baswedan and Uno dropped 2.8 percent," said Irvani, as reported by Kompas. The previous SMRC survey in early March had Baswedan in front with 50.7 percent compared to Purnama with 43.8 percent. The latest survey also found that 76 percent of respondents were satisfied with Purnama's administration. Irvani said that 47 percent of respondents in April agreed that Purnama had blasphemed Islam, compared to 62 percent who believed so in December last year. He explained that a number of factors had influenced the latest survey, including a televised gubernatorial debate held by Metro TV on 27 March. About 63 percent of respondents in the survey said that Purnama had outperformed Baswedan. 87 percent of respondents stated that televised debates between the candidates were a factor that determined their choice. Both candidate pairs faced off in the last official debate hosted by the General Elections Comission (KPU) on Wednesday in which they discussed transportation, housing, education as well as the controversial Jakarta reclamation project. However, critics said that the event lacked the substance and intensity of the earlier debate. Yunarto Wijaya, the director of polling agency Charta Politika, said that the candidates did not address important issues and detailed solutions, adding that it would not be enough to sway undecided voters.

TOP ISSUES 

TERRORISM | EXTREMISM

Police said that the perpetrator who injured three police officers during an armed attack at the Banyumas Police headquarters in Purwokerto, Central Java, has links to the terrorist group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD). (Page 2)

POLICE | OPPORTUNIST, ORGANISED & VIOLENT CRIME

Police on Tuesday 11 April arrested the wife of the man who allegedly murdered five people in their home in Medan, North Sumatra, on Sunday 9 April. (Page 3)

Public Holiday Message: Hill & Associates’ Security Advisory Bulletin Service (SABS) and Daily Risk Assessment (DRA) will not be issued on Friday 14 April due to the Good Friday public holiday. Our SMS Alert service will remain operational. Full risk information services will resume on Monday 17 April. At this time there are no indications of any protests scheduled for Saturday 15 April or Sunday 16 April. Hill & Associates will be monitoring developments during the long weekend. Should any incident occur that gives cause for concern, we will advise clients accordingly. Clients may also contact our Jakarta office (24 hrs) on (021) 522 8811 for the latest situation report or if they wish to report an incident that may be of particular relevance.

Easter Security Message: Authorities will deploy additional security across Indonesia for Good Friday and Easter celebrations on April 14-16. Police have not revealed any potential security threats, but terrorism and religious tensions are often a concern around major Christian holidays. Clients are advised to expect additional security around churches, as hard-line Islamic groups have targeted these sites in the past. As Good Friday is a public holiday, many will take advantage of the long weekend by travelling, visiting tourist attractions and worshipping at churches. As such, there will be an increase in the volume of vehicles on main roads, toll road exits from Jakarta to satellite cities, streets around tourist attractions and in the vicinity of churches. Clients are advised to anticipate traffic disruptions and increased security around churches on April 14-16. It is also advised to consider minimising exposure to areas around churches and always consider the security of any venue visited, particularly public areas that attract large crowds and foreign visitors.

PHYSICAL RISKS

TERRORISM | EXTREMISM

Attacker Linked to JAD: Police

National Police chief Gen. Tito Karnavian said on Tuesday 11 April that Mohammad Ibnu Dar, the perpetrator who injured three police officers during an armed attack at the Banyumas Police headquarters in Purwokerto, Central Java, has links to the terrorist group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD). Karnavian said that Dar had made contact with Karno, one of the six terrorists killed in Tuban regency, East Java, last week. Dar, who hailed from the same village as Karno, had also been in contact with several terrorist convicts at Kedungpane Prison in Semarang and some in prison on Nusakambangan Island off Cilacap, Central Java. Dar allegedly attacked the police headquarters in retaliation for Karno’s death. Karnavian said that Dar acted alone and was not following orders from JAD. Karnavian on Wednesday 12 April said that he had ordered police precincts nationwide to anticipate more attacks following the recent incidents.

Sources: Antara News | Kompas | The Jakarta Post | Republika | Media Indonesia

HEALTH & DISEASE | FIRE & SAFETY

Dengue Cases Decline in North Jakarta

The number of dengue fever cases in North Jakarta has declined this year compared to the same period in 2016, according to a spokesman for the North Jakarta Health Agency on Wednesday 12 April. The number of cases dropped to 213 between January and April, compared to 472 in the same period last year. The agency attributed the drop to preventative action by residents and local authorities, including the eradication of mosquito nests in the area.

Source: The Jakarta Post

Two Die After Drinking Tainted Alcohol

A West Java police spokesman said that two teenagers died after consuming traditional alcohol in Cicadas village, Majalengka regency, on Wednesday 12 April, while another person was hospitalised.

Source: Okezone

Comment: The production of illegal alcohol is prevalent across the country and its consumption causes hundreds of deaths each year. In some cases, products are disguised using popular labels. Clients are advised to only purchase alcoholic beverages from reputable suppliers. Bootleg alcohol is often sold at far cheaper rates, with 300ml bottles going for as little as IDR15,000 to 20,000.

Four Students Die on School Outing

Four Madrasah Tsanawiyah Bani Ali Mursyad (Islamic junior high school) students were found dead on Wednesday 12 April after going missing on an outbound activity in Madiun, East Java. A spokesman for the local military command said that a search and rescue team found the four students several kilometres along a riverbank from where they were swimming. As of writing, authorities were still searching for two missing students.

Source: Suara Pembaruan

POLICE | OPPORTUNIST, ORGANISED & VIOLENT CRIME

Three Men Arrested Over Murder of Family

North Sumatra Police arrested three men allegedly involved in the murder of four family members at their house on Jl. Pertanian, Medan, on 5 April. A police spokesman said on Wednesday 12 April that the suspects deliberately burned down the house in an attempt to cover up the murders. Police have not revealed a motive for the killings.

Sources: Koran Tempo | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia 

Police Arrest Wife of Alleged Murderer

Police on Tuesday 11 April arrested the wife of the man who allegedly murdered five people in their house in Medan, North Sumatra, on Sunday 9 April. The man, identified as Andi Lala, is still at large. Police said that the woman might have information about the motive behind the murders.

Sources: Koran Tempo | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia 

Narcotics Discovered in West Java | Police Kill Drug Trafficker in West Kalimantan 

Police discovered large quantities of drug-making materials during a raid on a house in Depok, West Java, on Monday 10 April. Four people have been arrested in connected with the case. Police on Monday also shot and killed a man for allegedly trafficking 15 kilograms of crystal methamphetamine in Sangau regency, West Kalimantan.

Sources: Koran Tempo | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia 

Police Pursue Street Robbers in Bekasi 

Police are searching for two men who attempted to rob a motorist on Jl. Juanda, Bekasi (West Java), on Tuesday 12 April. A police spokesman said that the suspects fled after the victim sought help from residents.

Sources: Koran Tempo | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia   

Two Arrested for Uber Hijacking

Police on Wednesday 12 April arrested two men who hijacked an Uber vehicle and dumped its driver on the Jagorawi toll road, Bogor (West Java), a day earlier. A police spokesman said that the location of the suspects was detected by a GPS system in the stolen vehicle.

Sources: Koran Tempo | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia  

NATURAL DISASTERS

BPBD Warns of More Flooding in Bekasi

Thousands of houses in four estates in Bekasi regency, West Java, were inundated by flooding on Wednesday 12 April. Heavy rain has been reported in Bumi Nasio Indah, Galaxi Jakasetia, Kompleks Dosen IKIP (Jatiasih sub-district) and Cahaya Kemang Permai since Monday 10 April. Floodwaters in some areas reached up to two metres deep, according to the Bekasi Disaster Mitigation Agency (BPBD). A BPBD spokesman said that heavy rain in the regency was also forecast for the next week, adding that local residents should be prepared for more flooding.

Sources: Koran Tempo | Kompas

ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE

INDONESIA HIGH WAVE ALERT THURSDAY 13 APRIL

Height Location Remarks

2.0 – 3.0 m Waters to the north and west of Aceh. Waters the north of the Sangihe and Talaud Islands (Sulawesi), Papua and West Papua. Waters from the west of Simeulue Islands (Aceh) to Mentawai Islands (West Sumatra). Waters from Bengkulu to the west of Lampung (southernmost Sumatra). Waters from the south of Java to Sumbawa (East Nusa Tenggara/NTT). Waters to the south of Kupang and Rote Island (NTT) The southern reaches of the Sunda, Bali, Lombok and Alas Straits. The central and northern reaches of the Makassar Strait. The Timor Sea to the south of NTT. The western reaches of the Sawu Sea.   Hazardous for fishing vessels and motorised wooden vessels.

3.0 – 4.0 m The Indian Ocean to the west of Mentawai Islands. The Indian Ocean to the south of Java.   Hazardous for fishing vessels, motorised wooden vessels, tugboats, LCT and ferries.

Source: Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)

JAKARTA AIR QUALITY INDEX THURSDAY 13 APRIL

    

AVIATION | AIR SAFETY

Residents Find Aircraft in Papua: Reports

A Cessna C208 Caravan aircraft belonging to Spirit Avia Sentosa airlines that disappeared from radar screens in Papua on Wednesday 12 April has reportedly being found. The aircraft was flying from Tanah Merah Airport in Boven Digoel when it disappeared one hour after take-off on its way to Oksibil Airport in Pegunungan Bintang regency. Media reports stated that residents in Kobibkop village, Pegunungan Bintang, found the plane in a “good condition”; however there were no reports on the condition of the pilot, who was alone in the plane. The plan was carrying cargo. A spokesman for the company said that a search and rescue team is on the way to the reported crash site, which is not far from Oksibil Airport.

Sources: Media Indonesia | Kompas | Koran Tempo | Okezone | The Jakarta Post

SHIPPING | MARITIME SECURITY

Two Dead After Wooden Boat Sinks in Gresik

Two men died after the wooden boat they were in sank in the Surabaya River in Gresik, East Java, on Wednesday 12 April. A police spokesman said that the boat sank because it was overcrowded with dozens of people and several motorcycles. As of writing, at least five people were still missing.

Sources: Kompas | Okezone

BUSINESS RISKS

CIVIL & LABOUR AFFAIRS

Police Reprimand Union Over Port Protest  

Police have reprimanded a labour union representing workers at PT Jakarta International Container Airport (JITC) over demonstrations on 6 and 9 April. Tanjung Priok police chief Yohannes De Deo said that the labour union misrepresented their plans for the protest. “In the letter that the union had sent to us, they said they would only hold mass rally and joint prayer but in reality they sealed the office of the board of directors,” said Yohannes on Tuesday 11 April.  He said that the union had breached the law on free speech and mass protests. The labour union staged the protest after the company rejected workers’ demands of salary increases and bonuses totalling USD6.95 million.

Source: Berita Satu

OTHER RISKS

FOREIGN NATIONALS | EXPATRIATE AFFAIRS

German Citizen Arrested for Drug Trafficking  

Customs officers at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in Tangerang, Banten, arrested a German national for allegedly smuggling 2.6 kilograms of crystal methamphetamine. A customs spokesman said on Wednesday 12 April the drugs had originated from Doha, Qatar.

Sources: Koran Tempo | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia

CITY | TRAFFIC | LOCAL AFFAIRS

Gatot Subroto Closure a Hoax: Police

The Jakarta Police Traffic Management Centre (TMC) announced that a message reporting a section of Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto in Central Jakarta was being closed for one month is false. On Wednesday 12 April, a text message purportedly from TMC said that the street would be closed for a month due to construction in the area. A TMC spokesman said the report is false. He said that it appeared someone had altered an earlier announcement and spread it on social media.

Sources: Detik | Kompas | The Jakarta Post

UPCOMING EVENTS DIARY

Date Event Public Holiday Remarks

Thu 13 – Sun 16 Apr 9th Indogreen Environment & Forestry Expo

No Jakarta Convention Centre

Fri 14 Apr Good Friday Yes Observed by Christians nationwide

Sun 16 – Wed 19 Apr Megabuild 2017 No Jakarta Convention Centre

Wed 19 Apr Jakarta Gubernatorial Election Yes

(Jakarta only) Jakarta residents return to the polls on 19 April to vote in the second round of the gubernatorial election.

Wed 19 – Fri 21 Apr The  Indonesia International Creative Textile Apparel Accessories Exhibition (INATEX) 2017 No Jakarta International Expo (JIE) Kemayoran

Thu 20 Apr Indonesia Summit (Economist Conference) No A strategic business event examining Indonesia’s economy and politics, at the Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta.

Mon 24 Apr Ascension of Prophet Muhammad (Isra Mi’raj) Yes Observed by Muslims nationwide.

Wed 26 – Sun 30 Apr INACRAFT 2017 No Jakarta Convention Centre (JCC)

Thu 27 Apr – Sun 7 May Indonesia International Motor Show 2017 No Jakarta International Expo (JIE) Kemayoran

Mon 1 May International Labour Day Yes Public Holiday

Thu 11 May   Waisak; Buddha’s Birthday Yes Observed by Buddhists nationwide

Fri 12 May Commemoration of the 19th anniversary of the 12 May 1998 riots. No Widespread riots in Jakarta followed fatal student shootings which have never been fully resolved. Student demonstrations likely in observation of the day.

Thu 25 May Ascension of Jesus Christ Yes Observed by Christians nationwide.

 

COUNTRY RISK RATING – INDONESIA

Terrorism Crime Ethnic, Religious & Social Conflict Health Risks & Services

H (B3) M (C2) H (B3) H (B3)

Natural Disasters Corruption & Fraud Business Ethics & Compliance Utilities & Infrastructure

H (B3) H (B3) H (B3) H (B3)

Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix - Level of Risk:

Probability

Rating Consequence Rating

Insignificant

1 Minor

2 Moderate

3 Major

4 Catastrophic

5

A (almost certain) H H E E E

B (likely) M H H E E

C (possible) L M H E E

D (unlikely) L L M H E

E (rare) L L M H H

Legend:

E Extreme risk Immediate action required

H High risk Senior management attention needed

M Moderate risk Management responsibility must be specified

L Low risk Managed through routine procedures

 

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