H&A Daily Risk Assessment - 17 Apr 2017

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Please find attached H&A Daily Risk Assessment - 17 Apr 2017

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Indonesian DRA 17 Apr 2017.pdf

Jakarta Info

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Apr 17, 2017, 2:02:44 AM4/17/17

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Dear Clients,

Please find below H&A Daily Risk Assessment - 17 Apr 2017

AUTHORITIES ON ALERT AHEAD OF ELECTION COUNTRY HEADLINES

Authorities are beginning to ramp up security in the capital ahead of the Jakarta gubernatorial election on Wednesday 19 April amid concerns about so-called “money politics” and the intimidation of voters. National Police spokesman Sr. Comr. Martinus Sitompul said on Sunday 16 April that about 36,000 police personnel will be deployed across the capital from today, Monday 17 April, until polling day. “Security measures will be prioritised for national vital objects (obvitnas), housing complexes and government buildings. Police have declared security alert level one, the highest level of alert, for the capital,” said Sitompul, as reported by Kompas. Police are working with the candidates’ campaign teams, the Jakarta General Elections Commission (KPU) and the Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) to secure a total of 13,034 polling stations. Jakarta Police, the KPU and Bawaslu have issued a letter that forbids mass mobilisation at polling stations on 19 April amid concerns about the potential intimidation of voters and attempts to disrupt public order. Police have previously warned people not to participate in Tamasya Al Maidah, an action organised by Muslim groups that encourages people to come to Jakarta to “guard” polling stations. Ansufri ID Sambo, the leader of Tamasya Al Maidah, said on Saturday 15 April that they will proceed with their plan despite the police warning. Bawaslu spokesman Muhammad Jufri told Koran Tempo that the agency has taken preventive measures to counter concerns about electoral fraud and money politics. “We will increase monitoring to prevent violations, including the use of unofficial voting forms. We also found reports that certain groups will offer cash or distribute food in exchange for voting for a certain candidate,” said Jufri. North Jakarta and West Jakarta are among the areas identified as being at high risk of vote buying practises. Incumbent Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama and his running mate Djarot Saiful Hidayat will face former Minister of Education Anies Baswedan and businessman Sandiaga Uno in what’s expected to be an extremely tight election. A survey conducted by Indikator from 12 to 14 April put Baswedan and Uno on 48.2 percent, compared to Purnama and Hidayat at 47.4 percent. A survey released by Charta Politika on Saturday put Purnama and Hidayat in front with 47.3 percent, while Baswedan and Uno were favoured by 44.8 percent of 782 respondents.

TOP ISSUES

ETHNIC, RELIGIOUS & SOCIAL CONFLICT

South Kalimantan Police shut down a mass prayer event organised by Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) in Balikpapan city on Sunday 16 April due to security concerns. (Page 2)

NATIONAL ECONOMY

Domestic motorcycle sales dropped 18 percent in the first quarter of the year comparted to the same period last year, according to the latest industry data. (Page 7)

PHYSICAL RISKS

ETHNIC, RELIGIOUS & SOCIAL CONFLICT

Police Shut Down HTI Event in South Kalimantan

South Kalimantan Police shut down a mass prayer event (tabligh akbar) organised by Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) in Bekantan Park, Balikpapan city, on Sunday 16 April due to security concerns. A police spokesman said that dozens of people from various organisations in the city had also gathered at the location to protest against the event. Police said that organisers were not granted permission to stage the event.

Sources: The Jakarta Post | Jawa Pos | Antara News

HEALTH & DISEASE | FIRE & SAFETY

Car Catches Fire Near FPI Gathering

National Police spokesman Insp. Gen. Boy Rafli Amar has warned people not to be provoked by unconfirmed rumours, after a car caught fire in the vicinity of a mass prayer event (tabligh akbar) organised by the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) in Cawang, East Jakarta, early on Sunday 16 April. East Jakarta Police spokesman Comr. Wasiem said that the fire occurred on Jl. MT Haryono after midnight. The FPI has described the incident as an act of terror. Amar, however, said that the car was not deliberately set alight.

Fire Destroys South Jakarta Restaurant

Fire gutted a restaurant on Jl. Banjar Sari 5, Cilandak, South Jakarta on Sunday 16 April. A police spokesman said that one employee sufferer severe injuries. Police said that the fire started when a 3 kilogram gas canister exploded in the kitchen.

Sources: Kompas | Okezone

POLICE | OPPORTUNIST, ORGANISED & VIOLENT CRIME

Police Launch Panic Button App in South Sulawesi and Papua

National Police chief Gen. Tito Karnavian on 12 April launched a command centre to monitor the security situation in Makassar, South Sulawesi, and respond more quickly to emergencies like accidents and natural disasters. The centre, which is integrated with a monitoring facility operated by the city administration, is connected to an Android-based mobile application allowing users to hit a panic button to call police. The same application was also launched by the Jayapura Police in Papua on 12 April.

Sources: The Jakarta Post | Antara News | Tempo Interactive

Group Wanted for Assaulting Police Officer

Police are seeking 10 men who assaulted a police officer in Kampung Bahari, North Jakarta, on Saturday 15 April. The officer was taken to Koja Hospital for intensive treatment. Police are investigating the cause of the incident.

Sources: Kompas | Warta Kota | Media Indonesia

Woman Found Dead in Hotel

A woman was found dead with multiple injuries at a hotel in Banyausin, South Sumatra, on Saturday 15 April. Police suspect that she was murdered. Meanwhile, police have distributed sketches of three men who allegedly murdered a man in Depok, West Java, on 29 March.

Sources: Kompas | Warta Kota

Motorcycle Thieves Arrested in Tangerang

Residents injured and arrested a man who stole a motorcycle from a house in Cibodas, Tangerang (Banten), on Saturday 15 April. The man has since been surrendered to police. Also on Saturday, police arrested a man who stole a motorcycle from a house in Benda (Tangerang) a week earlier.

Sources: Kompas | Warta Kota | Republika

NATURAL DISASTERS

Village Destroyed by Mount Sinabung Volcanic Ash Cloud

An entire village has been destroyed after lava and ash clouds spewed from Mount Sinabung in Karo regency, North Sumatra, on Friday 14 April. The village is located in less than 3 kilometres from the volcano, and falls within a “red zone” established by authorities. There have been no reports of casualties, as villagers were evacuated several years ago. Volcanic activity at the mountain has intensified since 9 April. The level of volcanic activity is still at Level IV, which is the highest rating.

Sources: Antara News | The Jakarta Post

Flooding Inundates Homes in West Sumatra

Hundreds of houses in Pasaman Barat regency, West Sumatra, were flooded when the Batang River overflowed during intense rain on Sunday 16 April. A spokesman for the regional Disaster Mitigation Agency (BPBD) said that water up to one metre deep was reported in Nagari Aia Gadang, Pasaman district. No casualties were reported; however a BPBD spokesman urged residents to be vigilant as the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecast more rain in the coming days.

Sources: Antara News | Kompas | Okezone

INDONESIA VOLCANO UPDATE MONDAY 17 APRIL

Standardised coding by the Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI)

Volcano / Mount Province Alert Level Alert Code Interpretation

1. Sinabung

North Sumatra 4

Dangerous (Awas)

RED Based on observation data analysis, a major eruption is possible within 24 hours.

Warning (Siaga)

Orange If trends continue, eruption is possible within two weeks.

2. Api Banda

3. Dempo

4. Bromo

5. Iya

6. Lokon

7. Awu

8. Soputan

9. Karangetang

10 Egon

11. Anak Krakatau

12. Ijen

13. Ruang

14. Rokatenda

15. Guntur

16. Talang

17. Dukono

18.Tambora

19. Raung

20. Anak Ranaka

21. Sundoro

22. Lamongan

23. Ambang

24. Semeru

25. Sirung

26. Ile Lewotolo

27. Marapi

28. Papandayan

29. Kerinci

30. Ebulobo

31. Seuleuwah

32. Lewatobi Perempuan

33. Ibu

34. Sangeang Api

35. Gamnokora

36. Tangkuban Perahu

37. Colo

38. Lewatobi Laki – Laki

39. Slamet

40. Dempo

41. Kie Besi

42. Gamalama

43. Soputan Maluku

South Sumatra

East Java

East Nusa Tenggara

North Sulawesi

Sunda Strait

East Java

North Sulawesi

East Nusa Tenggara

West Java

West Sumatra

North Maluku

West Nusa Tenggara

East Java

East Nusa Tenggara

Central Java

East Java

Sulawesi

East Java

East Nusa Tenggara

West Sumatra

West Java

Jambi

East Nusa Tenggara

Aceh

East Nusa Tenggara

Maluku

West Nusa Tenggara

North Maluku

West Java

Central Sulawesi

East Nusa Tenggara

Central Java

North Sumatra

North Maluku

North Sulawesi 2

Caution

(Waspada)

Yellow Magmatic, tectonic or hydrothermal disturbances - no eruption imminent.

Source: Indonesian Directorate of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation

ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE

INDONESIA HIGH WAVE ALERT MONDAY 17 APRIL

Height Location Remarks

2.0 – 3.0 m Waters to the north and west of Aceh. Waters to the south of Sumba and Sawu Islands (East Nusa Tenggara/NTT). Waters from the west of Simeulue Islands (Aceh) to Mentawai Islands (West Sumatra). Waters from Bengkulu to the west of Lampung (southernmost Sumatra). The southern reaches of the Sunda, Bali, Lombok and Alas Straits. Waters from the south of Banten to West Java. Waters from the south of Bali to Sumbawa. Waters to the east and north of the Talaud Islands. Waters to the north of Halmahera. The Halmahera Sea. The eastern reaches of the Arafuru Sea. Waters off Yos Sudarso (Papua). Hazardous for fishing vessels and motorised wooden vessels.

3.0 – 4.0 m Waters from the south of Central Java to East Java. The Indian Ocean to the south of Java. Hazardous for fishing vessels, motorised wooden vessels, tugboats, LCT and ferries.

Source: Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)

JAKARTA WEATHER FORECAST MONDAY 17 APRIL – SATURDAY 22 APRIL

Date Forecast Conditions: Day Forecast Conditions: Evening

Mon

17 Apr Scattered thunderstorms during the morning becoming more widespread this afternoon. High 33C. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 90%. Thunderstorms during the evening will give way to mostly cloudy skies after midnight. Low around 25C. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 80%.

Tue

18 Apr Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then mainly cloudy during the afternoon with thunderstorms likely. High 32C. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 90%. Considerable cloudiness. Low near 25C. Winds light and variable.

Wed

19 Apr Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then mainly cloudy during the afternoon with thunderstorms likely. High 32C. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 80%. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late at night. Low around 25C. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 50%.

Thu

20 Apr Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 32C. Winds ENE at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 90%. A few clouds from time to time. Low near 25C. Winds light and variable.

Fri

21 Apr Thunderstorms likely. High 32C. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 90%. Thunderstorms during the evening, then skies turning partly cloudy overnight. Low around 25C. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 80%.

Sat

22 Apr Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 31C. Winds N at 10 to 15 km/h. Chance of rain 80%. Thunderstorms in the evening will give way to partly cloudy skies overnight. Low 24C. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 80%.

Source: The Jakarta Observatory

JAKARTA AIR QUALITY INDEX MONDAY 17 APRIL

AVIATION | AIR SAFETY

Search Team Recovers Pilot’s Body After Papua Crash

A search and rescue team found the body of Rio Pasaribu, the captain of the Cessna Caravan aircraft that crashed in the Bintang Mountains in Papua on 12 April. A spokesman for the team said that the body was found near the wreckage located at the Bukit Anem cliff on 13 April. The plane crashed just 10 kilometres from Oksibil Airport, the capital of Bintang, where it was supposed to land after departing from Tanah Merah Airport in Bouven Digoel regency carrying more than one tonne of food. The National Transportation Safety Committee (KNKT) is investigating the incident.

Sources: The Jakarta Post | Koran Tempo | Media Indonesia | Republika

UTILITIES & INFRASTRUCTURE

President Opens Tanjung Priok Toll Road

President Joko Widodo on Saturday 15 April inaugurated the Tanjung Priok toll road as part of the Jakarta Outer Ring Road (JORR) to improve access to and from North Jakarta’s Tanjung Priok Port. Construction of the 11.4-kilometer road, which connects the JORR and the Jakarta Inner Ring Road, began in 2008 and was financed by more than IDR4.1 trillion (USD307.5 million) in loans from the Japanese government. The completion of the toll road was delayed for about six years because of issues related to land acquisition and technical matters. Widodo said that he expected the road would help thousands of container trucks more efficiently access Tanjung Priok Port every day. Minister for Transportation Budi Karya Sumadi estimated that the new toll road would cut about an hour off the trip to the port. Motorists can use the new Tanjung Priok toll road free of charge for the next 30 days.

BUSINESS RISKS

NATIONAL SECURITY | POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Purnama, Hidayat Return to Work

Incumbent governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama and deputy governor Djarot Saiful Hidayat were back to work on Sunday 16 April after two months of mandatory leave for the second round of gubernatorial election campaign. The election will be held on Wednesday 19 April during which they will face Anis Baswedan and Sandiaga Uno. Purnama and Hidayat will still hold their positions until 20 October if their opponents win the election. Purnama could also be temporarily stood down if prosecutor’s in his blasphemy trial push for a five year prison sentence in submissions later this week.

Sources: Kompas | Warta Kota | Koran Tempo | Media Indonesia

Police Vow Harsh Response to Voter Intimidation

Jakarta Police have vowed to hand down harsh sanctions against anyone involved in acts of intimidation during the gubernatorial election on runoff on 19 April. “We have received complaints and reports from voters and campaign teams about several indications of acts of intimidation,” said Jakarta Police chief Insp. Gen. M. Iriawan. Under the Regional Elections Law, acts of intimidation can be punished with up to six years in prison. Iriawan said that police would work with military personnel and the Jakarta General Elections Commission (KPU Jakarta) to prevent acts of intimidation during the runoff.

Source: The Jakarta Post

TNI, Gov’t Formalise Development Cooperation

The Indonesian Military (TNI) has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Ministry of Villages, Disadvantaged Regions and Transmigration to formalise its role in infrastructure development in remote areas. TNI spokesman Brig. Gen. Wuryanto said that the military’s main agenda was to support the government’s development program. The ministry’s secretary general, Anwar Sansui, said that the government would provide funds for the cooperation, while the TNI would provide manpower to complete local projects. Further details on the cooperation will be discussed by the two sides. Evan Laksmana, a researcher from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that an increase military role in civilian affairs could be counterproductive to the TNI’s main task of defending the country from threats and create unnecessary domestic political controversies. Laksmana said that the rise of civic action programs speaks less about military reform than of the failure of politicians and leaders to address infrastructure development and village welfare.

Source: The Jakarta Post

NATIONAL DEFENCE | MILITARY | FOREIGN AFFAIRS

US-Indonesia Trade Ties Under Spotlight in Pence Visit

Vice President Jusuf Kalla has voiced worries about US President Donald Trump's immigration policy and his “America First” stance on trade and investment ahead of a visit to Indonesia by US Vice President Mike Pence. “We in Indonesia never change. The change is there. That's why we're asking them now, ‘what is your policy now on the economy, on democracy, now that Trump is in power?’,” said Kalla. “What does it mean, ‘America first’? I can say, too, ‘Indonesia first’ if you say ‘America first’.” Indonesia is one of 16 countries against which the United States runs a trade deficit that will be investigated by the Trump administration for possible trade abuses. Indonesian government officials have said that there has also been a hardening of attitudes on their side. Authorities are involved in a series of disputes with US companies, including Google, miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase & Co. Pence is due to visit Indonesia from 20 to 22 April.

Source: Reuters

US to Probe Indonesia Biodiesel Imports

The United States is set to investigate imports of biodiesel from Indonesia and Argentina for possible dumping and subsidisation. The US International Trade Commission is scheduled to make a preliminary decision by May 8 on whether such imports hurt US producers, the US commerce department said in a statement. Some US biodiesel producers last month asked their government to impose anti-dumping duties on imports of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia that they said had flooded the US market and violated trade agreements. Indonesia’s trade ministry rejected allegations of dumping or subsidies and said that it would provide arguments and supportive data as proof. Indonesia's biodiesel group said it had asked its government to bring up the issue during Pence's visit to Jakarta this week.

Source: Reuters

NATIONAL ECONOMY | FUEL & FOOD SECURITY

Car Sales Up, Motorcycle Sales Down

Domestic car sales increased by 5.96 percent to 283,245 units in the first quarter of the year from 267,302 units in the same period of last year, according to data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers (Gaikindo) published on Friday 14 April. Domestic motorcycle sales however, declined by 18 percent to 1.4 million units over the same period. Economists said that the increase in car sales and the decline in motorcycle sales suggest that although the economy is improving, the purchasing power of people in the middle income bracket remains very weak.

Sources: Bisnis Indonesia | Kompas | Media Indonesia

PROVINCIAL AFFAIRS

West Java: Authorities Close Bridge due to Safety Concerns

Roads connecting Cibubur to Cianjur (both in West Java) have been cut off after a pole on the Cipamingkis Bridge shifted on Thursday 13 April. Jonggol sub-district head Beben Suhendar said that the bridge, which was built in 1980, is now closed due to safety concerns. Suhendar said that there are two alternative roads through Cibarusah and Sukamakmur. He said that the pole shifted during a storm that occurred late on Thursday.

Sources: Media Indonesia | Kompas | Okezone | Republika

OTHER RISKS

FOREIGN NATIONALS | EXPATRIATE AFFAIRS

New Zealander Sentenced for Drug Possession

New Zealand citizen Gregory John Harland White, 53, was sentenced to 11 years in jail and a fine of IDR800 million (USD61,000) by the Balikpapan District Court in East Kalimantan last week for possessing 29.7 grams of methamphetamine. Presiding Judge Purnomo Amin Cahyo said that White was proved to have controlled and provided methamphetamine as stipulated in Article 112 of Law No. 35/2009 on narcotics. White pleaded guilty to all charges. White was arrested in October 2016 at the Palm Hills housing complex in South Balikpapan.

Sources: The Jakarta Post | Ekspost Kaltim

MAJOR EVENTS | ANNIVERSARIES

Police Say Easter Celebrated Peacefully

Police said that celebrations marking Good Friday and Easter Sunday were held throughout the country without any significant disruptions, despite one man being arrested for throwing firecrackers at the Santo Yusuf Catholic Church in Ambarawa, Central Java, on 13 April. According to local residents, the perpetrator Muhammad Fahrudin suffers from a mental illness. Police confiscated more than a dozen firecrackers from Fahrudin. No one was injured in the incident.

Sources: Koran Tempo | The Jakarta Post

UPCOMING EVENTS DIARY

Date Event Public Holiday Remarks

Sun 16 – Wed 19 Apr Megabuild 2017 No Jakarta Convention Centre

Wed 19 Apr Jakarta Gubernatorial Election Yes

(Jakarta only) Jakarta residents return to the polls on 19 April to vote in the second round of the gubernatorial election.

Wed 19 – Fri 21 Apr The Indonesia International Creative Textile Apparel Accessories Exhibition (INATEX) 2017 No Jakarta International Expo (JIE) Kemayoran

Thu 20 Apr Indonesia Summit (Economist Conference) No A strategic business event examining Indonesia’s economy and politics, at the Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta.

Mon 24 Apr Ascension of Prophet Muhammad (Isra Mi’raj) Yes Observed by Muslims nationwide.

Wed 26 – Sun 30 Apr INACRAFT 2017 No Jakarta Convention Centre (JCC)

Thu 27 Apr – Sun 7 May Indonesia International Motor Show 2017 No Jakarta International Expo (JIE) Kemayoran

Mon 1 May International Labour Day Yes Public Holiday

Thu 11 May Waisak; Buddha’s Birthday Yes Observed by Buddhists nationwide

Fri 12 May Commemoration of the 19th anniversary of the 12 May 1998 riots. No Widespread riots in Jakarta followed fatal student shootings which have never been fully resolved. Student demonstrations likely in observation of the day.

Thu 25 May Ascension of Jesus Christ Yes Observed by Christians nationwide.

COUNTRY RISK RATING – INDONESIA

Terrorism Crime Ethnic, Religious & Social Conflict Health Risks & Services

H (B3) M (C2) H (B3) H (B3)

Natural Disasters Corruption & Fraud Business Ethics & Compliance Utilities & Infrastructure

H (B3) H (B3) H (B3) H (B3)

Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix - Level of Risk:

Probability

Rating Consequence Rating

Insignificant

1 Minor

2 Moderate

3 Major

4 Catastrophic

A (almost certain) H H E E E

B (likely) M H H E E

C (possible) L M H E E

D (unlikely) L L M H E

E (rare) L L M H H

Legend:

E Extreme risk Immediate action required

H High risk Senior management attention needed

M Moderate risk Management responsibility must be specified

L Low risk Managed through routine procedures

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