Abstract submission to EGU 2026: Extreme Value Theory at the Interfaces

[Alok Kumar Samantaray]

Dear colleagues and friends,

We invite you to submit an abstract to our session at the EGU Fall Meeting 2026:

Session : CL5.9 - Extreme Value Theory at the Interfaces: Outliers, Extremal Dependence, Compound & Clustering Events
Session Link: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/session/56774

Conveners:

Alok Samantaray (Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University)

Meriem Krouma (Department Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.)

Leonardo Olivetti (Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University)

Jordan Richards (School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh)

Sebastian Engelke (Research Center for Statistics, University of Geneva)

Session Description

Extreme events pose major challenges for science and decision-making, demanding methods that are both robust and tail-aware. This session provides an interdisciplinary platform for researchers applying Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and related approaches to exchange ideas, connect across disciplines, and showcase advances that improve the inference and prediction of extremes, with particular emphasis on environmental and geoscientific applications.

We welcome contributions spanning theory, methodology, and applications, with a particular focus on, but not limited to:

Advancing EVT methods

• Tail-copulas, Pareto processes, spectral measures, χ/χ̄ diagnostics
• Extreme quantile regression, hybrid EVT- quantile regression models, non-stationary tail models
• EVT-constrained ML or hybrid physics–ML models

Applying EVT to extremes in the real world

• Compound, connected, and cascading extremes (drought–flood sequences, heatwave clusters, storm surges, etc.)
• Spatial and temporal clustering of events using object-tracking or spell detection
• EVT-aware downscaling, bias correction, and model evaluation

Bridging EVT with services

• Synthetic event generation and scenario design for stress-testing systems
• Tail-focused calibration/validation and skill scores
• Uncertainty quantification relevant to hazards, risk, and exposure

Additional topics of interest include, but are not limited to:

• EVT-based calibration and validation of extremes
• Tail-focused verification methods (extremal scoring rules, return-level skill, reliability in the tails)
• Applications to extremes in reanalyses, climate models, and hydrology services

We particularly encourage contributions that bridge EVT with climate, hydrology, and infrastructure risk applications, including decision-relevant uncertainty quantification and studies of compound or cascading extremes. Submissions may include new methodological developments, open datasets and tools, or real-world case studies

Abstract Deadline: January 15, 2026 (13:00 CET)

Please feel free to reach out with any questions or to discuss whether your work fits the session. We look forward to your submissions and seeing you in Vienna!

Thanks,

Alok (alok.sa...@geo.uu.se)

(on behalf of the CL5.9 conveners)

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