Hello, Tour de France Gamers!
STAGE Grade: B-
I rate today’s stage a B-. A time trial is the least watchable of all bike races. I enjoyed the course, a triptych of time trial challenges. Losing Florian Lipowitz because of a crash is surprising, and has general classification implications — as did Remco Evenepoel’s win and the fact that Tadej Pogačar lost relatively little time.
Route: 3/5 GC: 3/5 Tactics: 2/5 Sprint: 1/5 Surprises: 2/5
If Evenepoel had won today by a margin of two minutes, there would be an imaginary battle for the overall victory. If he hadn’t won at all, there would be a battle for second place. As it is, and the form Evenepoel is in, I think both races have been run.
Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas lost more than a minute to Evenepoel. The Belgian is climbing better than ever, he’s not going to lose that time to either of them. Evenepoel himself thinks that losing Lipowitz is a blow — but with or without help, I don’t see how Evenepoel had a chance of going up or down from where he is today.
There is still a battle brewing for third place, though: Seixas gained a few seconds on del Toro. There’s twenty seconds between them, plenty to race for in the Alps starting Thursday.
The green jersey battle is also undecided. Mads Pedersen and Jasper Philipsen spared themselves as much as possible; they’ll want their legs fresh and strong for Wednesday’s stage.
Speaking of Lipowitz’ crash — I’ve not read reports about it but to me it looked like the road got bumpy just before the apex. Sporza claimed he “completely misread the corner” but I don’t believe it. And I have reason to think I’m right: Pogačar had a big moment himself there. I wasn’t wrong when I claimed that Pogačar is the better bike handler. He put just enough weight over his tires to avoid a low-sider, and controlled his skipping rear wheel just enough not to run out of corner. It’s the kind of thing you can’t learn or fake, Pogačar really has that talent.
That’s about all I have to report about today’s stage. I can point out that Mattias Skjelmose raced a fantastic time trial, as did Thymen Arensman. But it doesn’t matter much for the general classification, all the top riders finished well today.
Joshua Tarling is on Team Chris, nobody else picked him and he’s our focus rider of the day. He finished tenth today, a good result for him no doubt — but I was surprised he beat Filippo Ganna. But when I looked up their head-to-head results in time trials, I was even more surprised that this is just the first grand tour they’re racing together. Tarling raced the 2024 Vuelta a España and the 2025 Giro d’Italia. In 2025, Ganna started the Tour and the Vuelta and in 2024 he only raced the Giro.
I thought Ganna might have a chance to set a good time today, he often does well on moderate climbs. And he did, eleventh. But Tarling beat him today, by five seconds.
Five times previously they have gone head to head in a time trial. Five times, Tarling finished 5th or better. Five times, Ganna finished 2nd or better. Sixth time is the charm for Tarling.
He’s young, 22, and every one of his nine wins as a pro cyclist was in the individual time trial. He’s a good pick for the AAVC Tour de France game if every stage is a time trial. Like all good time trial riders, he grew up on the velodromes. But he also raced cyclocross at a young age, sometimes in Belgium; and when he was 12, he raced a 100-mile time trial, finishing in four hours and 49 minutes. Keep that in mind the next time you do a century.
Watch NBC Sports’ Extended highlights HERE.
Read the TNT Sports report HERE.
Lipowitz’ abandon is similar to yesterday’s abandons: only Team Cameron and Team Grace had him.
Spoiler alert: There were no changes in the standings today.
Our game often settles into a cadence of the same teams winning every day. That’s true today. Team Ansel had eight riders in the Top-25 (a tie with three others); most points from the stage, a tie for most points from classifications, and most points overall.
Team Josh took second, and Team Caleb took sole possession of third place. Points from Ganna separated them from Team Matthew.
Team Tadej tied for most points from classifications and they took fourth today. Team Hugo were next, Team Matthew solo in sixth. Team Oliver in seventh and Team Wesley in eight. Team Charles in ninth and the top-ten is rounded up by Team Amalia. Two teams missed the boat today. Team Grace in eleventh and Team Cameron in twelfth place.
As we are entering the last few days of racing, let’s take stock of the standings. Team Ansel has a big lead: 140 points. We have had big gaps in daily results, but those always went in Team Ansel’s favor.
Comparing their teams, Lenny Martinez is Team Tadej’s best GC rider, against Team Ansel’s Mattias Skjelmose. Head-to-head, Martinez is not going to outscore Skjelmose by 140 points, so Team Tadej has to look elsewhere for those points. They have Romain Grégoire and Antonio Tiberi. Outsiders, at best. This race is run unless Skjelmose abandons, and even then it will be close.
On Thursday we’ll start three big mountain stages. Wednesday’s stage therefore will not be contested by the general classification riders. This stage is hard to predict. In theory, it can be controlled by the sprint teams. But they would have to work hard for that. There are a lot of tired legs in week three of the Tour, and they’re short a team: Soudal Quick-Step doesn’t care if there’s a bunch sprint on Wednesday. They have their three stage wins, and Tim Merlier has abandoned. A large breakaway is therefore slightly more likely. Mathieu van der Poel has announced he’ll do everything to win the stage.
Which is strange. A van der Poel type breakaway will almost certainly bring Mads Pedersen to the finish, too. That means that van der Poel winning will cost Jasper Philipsen points in the green jersey competition. Cycling is a team sport: will Philipsen’s chances be a factor in the race?
In the breakaway, van der Poel will beat Pedersen. I still hope to see a bunch sprint, though, and then I think Olav Kooij will win it. This will be a too-close-to-call kind of day.
Standings after stage 16:
|
Rank |
Name |
Points |
WAS |
MOVES |
|
1 |
Team Ansel* |
3833 |
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
Team Tadej* |
3690 |
2 |
0 |
|
3 |
Team Josh* |
3662 |
3 |
0 |
|
4 |
Team Hugo* |
3400 |
4 |
0 |
|
5 |
Team Charles* |
3245 |
5 |
0 |
|
6 |
Team Caleb* |
3087 |
6 |
0 |
|
7 |
Team Matthew* |
3011 |
7 |
0 |
|
8 |
Team Oliver* |
2837 |
8 |
0 |
|
9 |
Team Amalia* |
2622 |
9 |
0 |
|
10 |
Team Wesley* |
2082 |
10 |
0 |
|
11 |
Team Grace* |
1404 |
11 |
0 |
|
12 |
Team Cameron* |
1103 |
12 |
0 |
Standings after stage 16 (including dogs and adults):
|
Rank |
Name |
Points |
WAS |
MOVES |
|
1 |
Team Ansel* |
3833 |
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
Team Kent |
3713 |
2 |
0 |
|
3 |
Team Tadej* |
3690 |
3 |
0 |
|
4 |
Team Kari |
3681 |
4 |
0 |
|
5 |
Team Josh* |
3662 |
5 |
0 |
|
6 |
Team Amelia |
3638 |
6 |
0 |
|
7 |
Team Melanie |
3555 |
7 |
0 |
|
8 |
Team Rob |
3544 |
9 |
1 |
|
9 |
Team Eric |
3519 |
8 |
-1 |
|
10 |
Team Jon |
3456 |
10 |
0 |
|
11 |
Team Kurt |
3403 |
11 |
0 |
|
12 |
Team Hugo* |
3400 |
11 |
-1 |
|
13 |
Team Craig |
3388 |
13 |
0 |
|
14 |
Team Jonwaine |
3332 |
15 |
1 |
|
15 |
Team Julie |
3331 |
14 |
-1 |
|
16 |
Team Charles* |
3245 |
16 |
0 |
|
17 |
Team Laurens |
3209 |
17 |
0 |
|
18 |
Team Ed |
3189 |
18 |
0 |
|
19 |
Team Corsa |
3113 |
19 |
0 |
|
20 |
Team Caleb* |
3087 |
20 |
0 |
|
21 |
Team Matthew* |
3011 |
22 |
1 |
|
22 |
Team Ambrose |
3008 |
21 |
-1 |
|
23 |
Team Kate |
2879 |
23 |
0 |
|
24 |
Team Grace |
2851 |
24 |
0 |
|
25 |
Team Oliver* |
2837 |
25 |
0 |
|
26 |
Team Ellie |
2767 |
26 |
0 |
|
27 |
Team Jonathan |
2732 |
30 |
3 |
|
28 |
Team Adam |
2725 |
27 |
-1 |
|
29 |
Team Cameron |
2711 |
29 |
0 |
|
30 |
Team Charlotte |
2708 |
28 |
-2 |
|
31 |
Team Amalia* |
2622 |
31 |
0 |
|
32 |
Team Suzanne |
2502 |
33 |
1 |
|
33 |
Team Erin |
2479 |
32 |
-1 |
|
34 |
Team Furner |
2408 |
34 |
0 |
|
35 |
Team Allison |
2325 |
35 |
0 |
|
36 |
Team Lichterman |
2310 |
36 |
0 |
|
37 |
Team Chris |
2161 |
38 |
1 |
|
38 |
Team Wesley |
2146 |
37 |
-1 |
|
39 |
Team Wesley* |
2082 |
39 |
0 |
|
40 |
Team Senna# |
1985 |
40 |
0 |
|
41 |
Team Izzy |
1958 |
41 |
0 |
|
42 |
Team Valerie |
1473 |
42 |
0 |
|
43 |
Team Grace* |
1404 |
43 |
0 |
|
44 |
Team Cameron* |
1103 |
44 |
0 |
|
45 |
Team Sam |
1097 |
45 |
0 |
Complete breakdown of points from stage 16:
|
Name |
STAGE RESULTS |
YELLOW JERSEY |
GREEN JERSEY |
POLKA DOT JERSEY |
WHITE JERSEY |
POINTS/CLASS |
TOTAL |
PREVIOUS |
CUM. TOTAL |
|
Team Amalia* |
136 |
27 |
5 |
7 |
5 |
44 |
180 |
2442 |
2622 |
|
Team Ansel* |
181 |
48 |
13 |
8 |
12 |
81 |
262 |
3571 |
3833 |
|
Team Caleb* |
171 |
37 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
63 |
234 |
2853 |
3087 |
|
Team Cameron* |
53 |
16 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
25 |
78 |
1025 |
1103 |
|
Team Charles* |
125 |
37 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
67 |
192 |
3053 |
3245 |
|
Team Grace* |
59 |
13 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
22 |
81 |
1323 |
1404 |
|
Team Hugo* |
149 |
40 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
73 |
222 |
3178 |
3400 |
|
Team Josh* |
170 |
43 |
13 |
8 |
12 |
76 |
246 |
3416 |
3662 |
|
Team Matthew* |
156 |
37 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
63 |
219 |
2792 |
3011 |
|
Team Oliver* |
151 |
33 |
12 |
11 |
3 |
59 |
210 |
2627 |
2837 |
|
Team Tadej* |
142 |
47 |
12 |
8 |
14 |
81 |
223 |
3467 |
3690 |
|
Team Wesley* |
139 |
39 |
0 |
8 |
9 |
56 |
195 |
1887 |
2082 |
Complete breakdown of points from stage 16 (including dogs and adults):
|
120 |
34 |
7 |
10 |
12 |
63 |
183 |
2542 |
2725 |
|
|
Team Allison |
108 |
24 |
8 |
6 |
9 |
47 |
155 |
2170 |
2325 |
|
Team Amalia* |
136 |
27 |
5 |
7 |
5 |
44 |
180 |
2442 |
2622 |
|
Team Ambrose |
137 |
37 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
67 |
204 |
2804 |
3008 |
|
Team Amelia |
155 |
49 |
10 |
8 |
15 |
82 |
237 |
3401 |
3638 |
|
Team Ansel* |
181 |
48 |
13 |
8 |
12 |
81 |
262 |
3571 |
3833 |
|
Team Caleb* |
171 |
37 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
63 |
234 |
2853 |
3087 |
|
Team Cameron |
128 |
35 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
63 |
191 |
2520 |
2711 |
|
Team Cameron* |
53 |
16 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
25 |
78 |
1025 |
1103 |
|
Team Charles* |
125 |
37 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
67 |
192 |
3053 |
3245 |
|
Team Charlotte |
111 |
32 |
4 |
13 |
11 |
60 |
171 |
2537 |
2708 |
|
Team Chris |
134 |
29 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
45 |
179 |
1982 |
2161 |
|
Team Corsa |
134 |
40 |
12 |
8 |
12 |
72 |
206 |
2907 |
3113 |
|
Team Craig |
141 |
42 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
78 |
219 |
3169 |
3388 |
|
Team Ed |
140 |
37 |
12 |
8 |
9 |
66 |
206 |
2983 |
3189 |
|
Team Ellie |
114 |
33 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
63 |
177 |
2590 |
2767 |
|
Team Eric |
136 |
43 |
12 |
15 |
12 |
82 |
218 |
3301 |
3519 |
|
Team Erin |
109 |
33 |
3 |
11 |
6 |
53 |
162 |
2317 |
2479 |
|
Team Furner |
114 |
34 |
4 |
9 |
13 |
60 |
174 |
2234 |
2408 |
|
Team Grace |
128 |
36 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
66 |
194 |
2657 |
2851 |
|
Team Grace* |
59 |
13 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
22 |
81 |
1323 |
1404 |
|
Team Hugo* |
149 |
40 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
73 |
222 |
3178 |
3400 |
|
Team Izzy |
99 |
18 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
40 |
139 |
1819 |
1958 |
|
Team Jon |
147 |
44 |
12 |
8 |
14 |
78 |
225 |
3231 |
3456 |
|
Team Jonathan |
169 |
41 |
0 |
7 |
8 |
56 |
225 |
2507 |
2732 |
|
Team Jonwaine |
185 |
52 |
0 |
11 |
14 |
77 |
262 |
3070 |
3332 |
|
Team Josh* |
170 |
43 |
13 |
8 |
12 |
76 |
246 |
3416 |
3662 |
|
Team Julie |
148 |
43 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
78 |
226 |
3105 |
3331 |
|
Team Kari |
142 |
47 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
84 |
226 |
3455 |
3681 |
|
Team Kate |
102 |
28 |
12 |
10 |
3 |
53 |
155 |
2724 |
2879 |
|
Team Kent |
161 |
47 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
84 |
245 |
3468 |
3713 |
|
Team Kurt |
143 |
43 |
13 |
15 |
11 |
82 |
225 |
3178 |
3403 |
|
Team Laurens |
148 |
45 |
5 |
11 |
12 |
73 |
221 |
2988 |
3209 |
|
Team Lichterman |
101 |
26 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
50 |
151 |
2159 |
2310 |
|
Team Matthew* |
156 |
37 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
63 |
219 |
2792 |
3011 |
|
Team Melanie |
137 |
40 |
13 |
11 |
12 |
76 |
213 |
3342 |
3555 |
|
Team Oliver* |
151 |
33 |
12 |
11 |
3 |
59 |
210 |
2627 |
2837 |
|
Team Rob |
181 |
48 |
12 |
8 |
12 |
80 |
261 |
3283 |
3544 |
|
Team Sam |
73 |
17 |
0 |
6 |
4 |
27 |
100 |
997 |
1097 |
|
Team Senna# |
91 |
22 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
38 |
129 |
1856 |
1985 |
|
Team Suzanne |
141 |
37 |
3 |
8 |
9 |
57 |
198 |
2304 |
2502 |
|
Team Tadej* |
142 |
47 |
12 |
8 |
14 |
81 |
223 |
3467 |
3690 |
|
Team Valerie |
43 |
10 |
9 |
5 |
0 |
24 |
67 |
1406 |
1473 |
|
Team Wesley |
106 |
24 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
40 |
146 |
2000 |
2146 |
|
Team Wesley* |
139 |
39 |
0 |
8 |
9 |
56 |
195 |
1887 |
2082 |
Allez le Tour!
-Laurens.