2009 Atlanta Mayor's Race - Who will be the next mayor of Atlanta?

[Cordell Carter]

Conventional wisdom holds that the next mayor of the city of Atlanta
will be one of the three apparent front-runners: Council President
Lisa Borders, Councilwoman Mary Norwood or state Senator Kasim Reed.

Despite the fact that election day is just three months away, this
year’s campaign feels subdued. Perhaps it’s the fact that the
candidates are having trouble raising funds in these challenging
economic times; the current candidates could be lucky to break $1
million in fund-raising, vs. the $3 million plus raised back in the
early 2000s when Shirley Franklin battled Robb Pitts.

Mary Norwood has arguably the best name recognition, and strong grass
roots support. Additionally, the changing demographics of the city
could make it easier to elect a white mayor than any time in recent
memory.

Lisa Borders, the current city council president, is perhaps the
city’s poster child for crime due to the fact that her homes have
broken into repeatedly over the past few months. However, she has
strong support from the city’s business community.

Kasim Reed is somewhat of an unknown among many people. Among many
Atlantans he’s best known for managing both of Shirley Franklin’s
successful races — which, to some, makes him the putative “machine
candidate.” Shirley Franklin is widely expected to throw her support
behind Reed, though she hasn’t yet done so publicly.

With no breakaway favorite, it is likely that the mayor’s race will be
decided in a runoff. Most pundits consider Norwood a lock for a runoff
berth, but winning a runoff against a black candidate in a majority-
black city is a tall order.

According to figures released by the Georgia Secretary of State’s
office in April, Atlanta’s 280,500 registered voters are 51 percent
black to 36 percent white. “Whereas Atlanta’s overall population
continues to grow, the racial profile has not changed as greatly as
some presume,” former mayor Sam Massell said recently. “Voter
registration, itself, is heavily African American with the black-white
spread in the neighborhood of 50 percent to 40 percent. This doesn’t
necessarily dictate how people will vote, but it’s frequently a major
factor.”

What do you think? Who will be the next mayor of Atlanta?

Links to the candidates’ websites:
Lisa Borders: http://www.bordersforatlanta.com/
Mary Norwood: http://www.marynorwoodformayor.com/
Kasim Reed: http://www.kasimreed.com/