WW-P Schools Will Keep Growing

[Jerry Foster]

You probably saw this article in the WW-P News reporting about a new enrollment projection presented to the school board:
http://www.wwpinfo.com/index.php?option=com_us1more&Itemid=6&key=2-1-13growth

and here's the report:
http://www.west-windsor-plainsboro.k12.nj.us/about_us/WW-P_Fast_Facts/demographics/

The report at least gets us past the completely mistaken projections done prior to the Princeton Jct Transit Village redevelopment discussions, which is a very good thing.

WW's growth projections are extremely conservative - for example, the report notes that DVRPC's population projections for 2020 were almost reached in the 2010 census, but appears to make no independent adjustment. We've discussed these projections on this list in the past - I asked DVRPC about them - they said the estimates come from WW Twp's planning department.

A more expansive view of WW's possible growth can be gleaned from the Twp's master plan:
http://westwindsornj.org/MasterPlan/Section%204/010509daj_HEFSP_Adopted_with_sig.pdf

see the table projecting residential housing growth on p 24 for a pre-crash view (the report was prepared in 2008).

Jerry

[John Church]

Thanks, Jerry.  The school report is full of good data.  Unfortunately, the projections may already be obsolete due to the Howard Hughes project.

 

The HH people have implied that they would build a new school.  Let’s hope they would cover all the extra educational and municipal costs as well.

 

John

 

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[Alison Miller]

I cannot help wondering -- if Howard Hughes comes up with a superior product, and either convinces 4 elected officials to change the zoning to allow it or can develop it under the current zoning, will it bleed interest away from the admittedly inferior Goldin project, which, after all, is nothing more than a housing development near a train station with a few stores, (assuming they can rent them)?  HH is promising real mixed use.  What if they can deliver?

 

The above thought actually impacts school projections.  If in real life the HH project replaces, rather than supplements, the Goldin project, the short term and mid term impacts on our schools will be less.

 

However, regarding extra educational and municipal costs of their project, HH will argue that if their property is once again paying $2 million in municipal taxes per year instead of $.5 million as presently (or so I understand from their presentation), their being responsible for anything less than $1.5 million in additional costs should be forgiven as the twp still will come out ahead. 

 

I anticipate an interesting debate.

 

alison

From: John Church <j.ch...@mindspring.com>
To: WWCommunit...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2013 12:37 PM
Subject: RE: WW-P Schools Will Keep Growing

Thanks, Jerry.  The school report is full of good data.  Unfortunately, the projections may already be obsolete due to the Howard Hughes project.

 

The HH people have implied that they would build a new school.  Let’s hope they would cover all the extra educational and municipal costs as well.

 

John

 

[John Church]

We need to see a complete plan before we can get any kind of a handle on the extra school and municipal costs and whether the additional tax receipts would be enough to cover these.

 

In that vein, I previously posted a large Excel spreadsheet tailored to the InterCap project, with many user-entered variables.  The output shows the estimated tax impact.  Once I see the HH plan, I could pretty easily modify it to do the same thing for their case.

 

HH is probably underestimating the difficulties they will have with NJDOT and Route 1, to say nothing of the likely impacts on QB Road and Clarksville Road. 

 

John

 

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[Michael Baxter]

I think the transit village – if built – will necessitate one additional school.  Plan on 1 child/unit in the proposed one.  That’ll drive the demand for the 2nd school.  And, who knows what that big development on Clarksville will drive.  

And, no one has ever answered the question why all these new developments are good for the current residents of Princeton Jct.

Mike

[Virginia Manzari]

While the idea of "mixed use" development sounds good to many people, the fact remains that we live in a "drive-around" kind of area.  You want to go out to eat?  Are you going to go to the one (or two) eateries that are in your mixed use development EVERY single time you want to eat out?  I doubt it.  You want to shop?  Will you ALWAYS shop at the one or two stores that are in your development?  Nope.  You want to entertain yourself?  Are you going to go to the yoga place or the tae kwon do place or the pottery place or whatever ends up in your development EVERY time you're looking for something to do?  Of course not.  We don't live in a city where there are tons of options - either walkable or by public transit.  So in my opinion, all of these mixed-use developments are going to come with a car for every adult (that will add traffic to our streets), and a gaggle of kids (that will fill up our schools).  Once residents realize that, the better.   Unfortunately, the realization will probably hit after the damage is done.

Virginia

[Alison Miller]

Yes; we must maintain the delicate balance between "don't jump to conclusions" and "be prepared."

alison

From: John Church <j.ch...@mindspring.com>
To: WWCommunit...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, February 13, 2013 4:05 PM
Subject: RE: WW-P Schools Will Keep Growing

We need to see a complete plan before we can get any kind of a handle on the extra school and municipal costs and whether the additional tax receipts would be enough to cover these.

 

In that vein, I previously posted a large Excel spreadsheet tailored to the InterCap project, with many user-entered variables.  The output shows the estimated tax impact.  Once I see the HH plan, I could pretty easily modify it to do the same thing for their case.

 

HH is probably underestimating the difficulties they will have with NJDOT and Route 1, to say nothing of the likely impacts on QB Road and Clarksville Road. 

 

John

 

[Jerry Foster]

We're filling in WW at an interesting time - as recently as 10 years ago, it was just assumed traffic would keep growing and growing. Now the millenials are moving to walkable places and developers are responding with mixed use developments as a hybrid between urban and suburban traditional forms. They call it new urbanism, seems more like new suburbanism to me.

Anyway, consider where you drive for daily errands and what it would take to consider alternatives. A few months ago, took my new truck to the dealer by Quakerbridge mall, the alarm kept activating (apologies to my neighbors), didn't have an appointment for a loaner car, walked to the mall to take the bus back. Hmm, there's a big hole in the bus schedule during midday, ended up taking the bus to Princeton station and the Dinky back from there, made it in 40 minutes instead of an almost 2 hr wait for the next bus to Princeton Jct station. I biked back to get the truck in 20 minutes, not something most people would feel comfortable doing on Clarksville.

A new train station near Quakerbridge and Dinky-like service to the malls would provide a real, though limited, alternative to driving.

Jerry
PS - you may have seen that Ewing recently approved a redevelopment plan for the exGM site, features a new (relocated) train station and mixed use development, hmm...

[Alison Miller]

Jerry, one thing everyone including me forgot about in our discussion of Howard Hughes' plans last night is their people mover policy.  They like to have people park in one outlying lot and take a free people-mover around their development.  I figure you could bike, and people could walk if the distances weren't great, instead of waiting for the bus/monorail/boat whatever. 

 

But this starts another part of the discussion:  What's in it for HH to move people to and from Q'bridge Mall for free?  What's in it for WW twp?  What's in it for Lawrence Twp is easy to see:  more customers, so WW can have more people and Law. more stores and services.  I think HH should concentrate on WW Twp.  The people-mover, as well as going around the site itself, could go to the train station.  If there is no supermarket on site, to a supermarket.

 

But I don't think people should have to rely on buses to get to work in Mercer County New Jersey.  Nobody cares to run a bus program that is efficient, because it is expensive.  And 40 minutes from the Q'bridge Mall to your house is a long time for the middle of the day, and you are lucky to be able to walk from the train station.  See, you live in a transit village.

 

Oh, and the article about undeveloped WW in today's WW-P News includes an inaccurate statement; it says Sam says WW owns 60 acres on Clarksville Rd between the apartments and the HH property; it's really only 1 acres, but 60 apartments could be built on it.

 

a

From: Jerry Foster <j3j3...@gmail.com>
To: WWCommunit...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Friday, February 15, 2013 6:57 AM

Subject: Re: WW-P Schools Will Keep Growing

[Michael Baxter]

Jerry – thanks

I think even this study is under estimated.  Only time will tell.

Mike

[Jerry Foster]

Resurrecting a thread from 2013, now that new school building or addition is no longer avoidable, see the WW-P News article: 
http://mercerspace.com/2017/04/11/long-term-cost-of-ww-p-school-district-expansion-could-exceed-50m/

There's a lesson in here, very likely about why a financial impact statement is critical before making development or redevelopment decisions. The Transit Village financial impact statement was, how shall we say, just as accurate as the developer who produced it wanted it to be.

What other lessons from the Transit Village process should we keep in mind now that Howard Hughes Corp is proposing a nearly-2000 unit development?

Jerry