WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, August 25, 2024; NEXT TEN DAYS OUTLOOK; Part 1

[Larry Cosgrove]

NEXT TEN DAYS OUTLOOK

(Now Through September 3, 2024)

 

Getting Rid Of The Sonoran Heat Ridge Is Proving To Be Tough....

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

Despite a weakness at 550MB crawling into Texas, and a trough along the West Coast, the Sonoran heat ridge will still be in place through the near term. Shortwaves ejecting from a Gulf of Alaska Low will proceed along the border with Canada, triggering intense thunderstorms from the north central states into the Midwest and Great Lakes. While readings may cool marginally across the Intermountain Region and northern High Plains, that subtropical high will prove very durable. The ridge likely keeps the area covering Texas, the Heartland and Dixie in the proverbial frying pan. Even the Eastern Seaboard may get into the discomfort zone over the next five days.

Formation Of Gulf Of Alaska And Hudson Bay Lows Increase In Thunderstorm Potential Over Northern Tier, Gulf Coast

METEOBLUE

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)

TwisterData.Com (3)

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

TrueWx.Com (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory

If you look at model guidance through the first few days of September, you can easily make out the two rough spots in terms of thunderstorm potential. One area is from British Columbia eastward through Alberta/Montana into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and the Northeast. There are some incredible instability measures across the Missouri Valley and much of the Corn Belt. This is the type of scenario that could lead to derecho formation, and at the very least expose the Interstate 80 and 90 corridors to dangerous hail and tornado situations in both the near term and the medium range. Tropical disturbances are likely to target Texas and the Deep South, but odds on a cyclonic circulation forming at surface look to be low until the extended range.