WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, February 21, 2026; SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

About THAT Blizzard In The Northeast U.S. And Maritime Provinces!

METEOBLUE

University Of Wisconsin Weather Server (3)

WeatherBELL (3)

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (3)

Where are all of those "BLOWTORCH" forecasts now?

The GFS and GGEM versions from last weekend hinted at a storm near the Virginia Capes. And with a two-shortwave input into a potentially violent Nor'easter arriving, needless to say any talk of warming outside of the south central states looks quite foolish. The matter that must now be discussed is the reality of very heavy snows, multiple thunderstorm production in the cold and overrunning sectors of a deep cyclone with an inverted trough, Arctic air inhalation from Ontario and Quebec and winds exceeding 55 mph along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor from Washington DC to Houlton ME. And of course, also involving the Maritime Provinces as well. The expansion of the 500MB closed low should allow the attendant trough to trigger a fairly wide area of moderate/heavy snow, with help from moisture out of Lakes Erie and Ontario through much of New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Incredibly, snow associated with this system may be seen as far south as the Research Triangle in North Carolina. Orography may enhance accumulations as well a sthe convective array, which needless to say is incredible for a coastal storm. Analogs such as December 25, 1966; January 6-7, 1996 and February 17, 2003 are useful in anticipation of this storm. 

Keep in mind that the core path of the heaviest snow should produce between 10 and 36 inches of snow, with cases of freezing mist/sleet and hailstones quite possible before the system leaves North America on Tuesday morning. At that time, our attention will turn to an Arctic air mass entering the Great Lakes which will play an important role in the medium and long range forecasts.