WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, NEXT TEN DAYS OUTLOOK; Saturday, January 25, 2025

[Larry Cosgrove]

NEXT TEN DAYS

 

Cold Canada And Northern 1/3 Of The USA....

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (5)

ECMWF

If you live in the south central states or Florida, you could be excused for believing that winter is over. Excused, perhaps, but not being realistic. There are some challenges coming up, even in lower latitudes, which will remind you that it is February, and the calendar end of winter is 48 days away. Bitter cold is setting up over the Pacific Northwest, the southern half of Canada, and the Upper Midwest. From that vantage point, it appears likely that before February is over, we will see two farthest-south-advance of Arctic values into the Rio Grande Valley and South Florida.

If we had a dual or triple point blocking signature within or near the Arctic Circle, the deep chill now building in Canada would be forced as far south as Mexico and Cuba. But a singular representation of a block, in this case a thumb-projection into Alaska, will skew the cAk air arrival in a way where some of the lower 48 states will escape the bitter cold. For the next ten days, that will probably be the Eastern Seaboard/Gulf Coast. There is a very strong Sargasso Sea heat ridge aligned in such a way as to produce west/southwest flow at most levels, from Texas through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. When the more southern anticyclone starts to weaken, inevitably, the air mass out of Arctic Canada will progress to lower latitudes. In order to speed this chilled regime on its move southward, a major winter storm will be needed. When that happens (in the 6-10 day range) those living in places like Bryan TX and Durham NC will get a profound shock after enjoying some very mild and dry conditions.

....Storm May Bring The Arctic Air Further South Next Weekend

METEOBLUE

ECMWF (4)

TrueWx.Com (5)

UQAM Meteocentre (4)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory (2)

I would rate the threat for a major winter storm during the medium range at about 4 in 5. There are three candidate systems in the northern Pacific Basin, while at the same time the various numerical models are showing strong Alaskan ridging building toward and encompassing the North Pole. The heat ridge covering Bermuda and the Greater Antilles will slowly weaken, and the heavier cold values will slowly push the tropical regime out of Texas, the Gulf States, and Appalachia. But the warmth may hold out over the Eastern Seaboard, depending on the exact track of the 500MB and surface low. I suspect that a Colorado/Trinidad "B" or Piedmont storm will occur between February 8 - 10. Precipitation outlines now warn of extensive ice and snow from Oklahoma into Pennsylvania and New York, but I would not feel comfortable trying to predict snow/ice/rain transitions this early. Just beware of the coming cold snap to the right of the Continental Divide, and the risk for a prominent winter weather event (or two) striking much of the country in the second and third week of February.