WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, July 12, 2025; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Finally, A Stable Hot Summer Pattern? Heat Ridges And Tropical Cyclone Risks Are Mentioned!

CIMSS (3)

GRAPES/WMO Beijing

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (3)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (5)

NOAA/CPC

This has been kind of an exasperating summer season. The 2007 analog was partially viable in that a weakness fell over Texas, channeling the moisture from the Mexican monsoonal fetch into the Lone Star State rather than the Desert and Intermountain Regions. This mechanism resulted in the flooding tragedies in Ruidoso NM and Kerrville TX, and spread a cooler outcome to the west of the Interstate 45 corridor and to the right of the lower Rocky Mountains. Of course if that analog were to continue, many hot temperature forecasts in the south central USA would be destroyed. But a funny thing happened on Saturday July 12. All of the numerical models changed, keeping a cold air dome in Canada while shifting said discontinuity leftward to the western states. A heat ridge looks to fill in (Sonoran+Bermudan fashion) across much of the lower 48 states. So in all likelihood, we end up with a cool Canada vs. hot U.S. alignment, with the western states somewhat changeable and the northern fringe of the lower 48 states prone to cP intrusions. The Northeast may be vulnerable to a cooler look on Week 4 if the model weeklies verify. Keep in mind that the outlook monthlies are mostly hot through-and-through, with room for a change either from Quebec or a tropical system.

In regard to tropical threats, note that the dry/dusty air may get in the way of the first ITCZ impulse in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. But there are many more disturbances on the way, plus weaknesses moving below the sprawling ridge complex. The CFS solution hints at a Texas strike, and remember that version was the only one to point out the rain and cooling scenario for central Texas last month. The sea surface temperatures are rather warm, while at the same time those in the equatorial Pacific Basin are slowly cooling. A weak/moderate La Nina should be called by October 1. There is nothing in the 500MB longwave pattern, or the erratic, non-linked Madden-Julian Oscillation, that would create a shearing influence in the upper air or allow the Saharan Air Layer to run amok and squelch warm-core cyclogenesis. In short, we may see the major islands and/or U.S. involved in a named storm path soon. I will stick with my call for 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major cyclones.

It is going to be hot, and stormy, for the remainder of the summer and the first part of autumn.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, July 13, 2025 at 2:30 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2025 by Larry Cosgrove

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