WEATHERAmerica Newsetter, Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 9:40 PM CT; Near Term Forecast

[Larry Cosgrove]

SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK

(Through The Next 72 Hours)

 

Cool West Vs. Warm Texas/Great Plains Is A Recipe For Strong/Severe Thunderstorms In The Middle....

METEOBLUE

UQAM Meteocentre (3)

TwisterData.Com (3)

University Of Wisconsin Weather (3)

College Of DuPage Weather Laboratory 

The presence of mesoscale cold pools and disturbances in the upper atmosphere suggest that an area from Texas into the Corn Belt will be visited repeatedly by heavy to severe thunderstorms during most of the near term. Although timing of events will be difficult (most MCC or MCS formation cases are at night), May climatology favors intense/large hail and isolated tornadoes. Parts of the Great Plains and Upper Midwest will have the potential for intense convection as well. Energy now across the Intermountain Region will be booted eastward by an oncoming storm associated with the Gulf of Alaska Low. A weak trough and cold frontal passage out of Quebec and Ontario may stabilize the Northeast by Tuesday. Other than that, only the Desert Southwest will dodge rain and thunder risks with a flat shortwave ridge overhead.

....Polar Front Will Cool And Stabilize The Great Lakes And Eastern Seaboard

METEOBLUE

PivotalWeather.Com (3)

ECMWF

Keep in mind that with a closed upper low moving from Quebec into Atlantic Canada, the Maritime Provinces and northeastern U.S. will see a fresh polar air mass progress out of Hudson Bay. Just like the previous cold frontal passages, this is nothing extreme. Rather, it is the kind of regime where the thermostat could kick in and warm the homes by night and give way to sunny and mild conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Some mP values may aso push into the Pacific Northwest, but deviations from normal will be marginal there as well.