WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, November 30, 2025; EXTENDED PERIOD SUMMARY

[Larry Cosgrove]

Will The Cold Stay Over The Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast? The Storm Track May Be The Great Decider.

CIMSS

NOHRSC

NOHRSC

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBELL (7)

I get the feeling that many of my readers want a return to a "good old fashioned winter", replete with blizzards, ice storms, and three or four months of notable cold. That may be wrong, since I know many flee to Florida or Arizona in the DJFM time frame. But comments on social media and adjectives thrown from broadcast networks do not lie. Global warming be damned, can we please have our late 1970s' or early/mid 2010s weather back please?

What the analogs tell us, particularly with the 2024-25 predominance as well as "on the margins" resemblance to 2007-08, 2013-14 and 2020-21 is that while it is unlikely that we will have the proverbial "one for the record books", we are going to have a season that will breed its own share of memories for those who like cold, ice and snow. This holiday weekend storm should be a benchmark of sorts because the snowline was dragged far south and a solid white coverage across Canada will favor the cAk regimes. The semizonal course of the westerlies and lack of lasting blocks within the Arctic Circle suggests that at least some gaps in the colder air and snowpack are likely. The final GFS monthly outline for December is basically along cold North vs. warm South lines. But it is that vigorous storm sequence in the Pacific Basin that concerns me. Particularly there is a concurrent impressive southern branch that will ultimately phase with the polar and Arctic flows. Most of the in-depth comparison charts suggest a really tough time in January and February as the cAk vortex finds a home near the Soo Locks. Its current status looks to be across Hudson Bay, which may allow for another cold week before moderation sets in for the middle of December. Another cold intrusion seems probable via the numerical models around the Christmas/New Year's holiday period.

Ski resorts, salt companies and snow plow companies have reason to be optimistic. And so do the "snow freaks" (in memory of the late Dr. Frank Sechrist, University Of Wisconsin all-time snow hater), living in the eastern 2/3 of the USA. But just remember that some warm-ups are likely in mid-January, and this pattern may go away in early or middle March.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, November 30, 2025 at 2:30 A.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2025 by Larry Cosgrove

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