TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | When Waves Meet the Shore Washington University in St. Louis - 27 August 2025 Researchers found that strong wave breaking along the shore can produce large amounts of sea spray aerosols, significantly increasing both the number of cloud condensation nuclei and the mass of airborne particles in coastal regions. |
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| | University of Maryland - 13 August 2025The novel experiment reveals how thunderstorms affect our climate and how Earth’s atmosphere breaks down pollution. |
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| | Dust Is the Sky's Ice Maker Eos - 5 September 2025 A new analysis of satellite data links desert dust to cloud freezing, with big implications for weather and climate models. |
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| | Study Finds Sea Level Projections from the 1990s Were Spot On Tulane University - 22 August 2025 Global sea-level change has now been measured by satellites for more than 30 years, and a comparison with climate projections from the mid-1990s shows that they were remarkably accurate, according to a new study. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
BC....WA....OR....ID
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)
N, C SK....W MB....C, W ND....SE MT....SD....NE....W, C KS
Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits
C, S FL
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
BC....WA....OR....ID
(QPF 1 - 2")
Isolated Locations In
N, C SK....W MB....C, W ND....SE MT....SD....NE....W, C KS
(QPF 1 - 3")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
C, S CA....NV....AZ....Extreme S ID....W WY....UT....AZ....NM....W, C CO....OK....TX....C, S OK....AR....LA....W TN....W KY....C, E MO....C, E IA....SE MN....SW WI....IL
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The emphasis on gradual cooling. With a little help from the Black, Caspian, and Aral Seas.
One constant in the forecast panels is the presence of a deep upper low and trough over western and central Russia. When the trough elongates, cold fronts will cross the major water bodies and move as far south as Iraq and Iran into the Indus River watershed. The process takes time, but will mean relief from heat in most sections of the Levant and Persia before the end of this month. The moisture from the central Eurasian water bodies will be joined in a few weeks by the ITCZ and remnant monsoonal dewpoint stream, which will help to get thunderstorms going in Mesopotamia and along and south of the Zagros Range. But you will still find discomfort with high heat and humidity through the medium range forecast period. Convection in Turley, the Caucasus, and above the Alborz Mountains will bring needed heavy rainfall and refreshing cool that in time will reach as far south as 25-30 N Latitude. But that is for October, not now.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The Asian monsoon is just about done, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, mostly in Phase 2, is not in a position or intensity to boost the polar westerlies. That situation may change in about two or three weeks, but for now generally warm profiles are forecast across Canada and the USA. The coldest regime in Asia will be over Russia with little forward motion through the next ten days.
Cold fronts continue to progress across Australia and New Zealand. The dry/cool spell from the Outback into the eastern cities will be replaced by chances for rainfall and thunder later in the new week.
GOES WEST
NHC; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
There are two important tropical waves below the Mexican and Central American shorelines which could impact some of the resorts along the central and southern states of Mexico. A growing concern is the expansion of the equatorial moisture axis from Colombia to southeast of Hawaii. That feature could be a forerunner of a southern branch jet stream, which is uncommon during a weak La Nina episode and could lead toward major positive precipitation anomalies in Texas and the Deep South in a few weeks. The Gulf of Alaska Low will be reaching vortex status soon, and may erode the ridge complex forecast across the western half of North America.
GOES EAST
NHC; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS
There are plenty of tropical waves over the Atlantic Basin, but none appear to be developing so far. The National Hurricane Center is interested in the wave off of Liberia, but so far dry air infiltration continues to kill convection.
An elongated, but diffuse, trough complex and front will bring thunderstorms to the Midwest. Another frontal structure straddling the Gulf and Atlantic shorelines could produce threats for showers in the Carolinas up through the Mid-Atlantic region. Heat is a major consideration with ridging from Texas into the Great Plains and Ohio Valley.
A strong cold front is pushing through Chile and Argentina. Diurnal thunderstorms with heat and high humidity prevail over the northern two-thirds of South America, with a large tropical wave in the middle of the Amazon Basin.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Most of Europe is situated about where it was in August. That is generally in a mild or warm status, and not extremely hot. Frontal structures from the northern Atlantic Ocean will progress across the subcontinent and also through Russia between now and the start of October. The Saharan heat ridge will continue to pulse occasionally into the Iberian Peninsula, making for the only truly hot European conditions during the new week. Thunderstorms will be an issue from west to east, with particular interest in severe weather over France and Germany.
Curiously, the hurricane season is not showing the traditional tie-in with the continuously active ITCZ. The disturbances are strong, with heavy rainfall across equatorial Africa (starting over Yemen). But dry air pockets from the Saharan Air Layer continue to wipe out convective circulations across the Atlantic Basin. Northern sections of the African continent are quite dry and dust-laden, while the Kalahari heat ridge complex appears to be breaking down.
