TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | University of Utah - 8 January 2026"Proxies" in the geologic record show rainfall was more intense, but less regular, during the Paleogene Period, which began 66 million years ago. |
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| | Detailed Map Reveals Groundwater Levels across the U.S. Princeton University - 14 January 2026 Combining direct measurements with artificial intelligence methods, the new map estimates groundwater depth across the continental United States at a resolution of around 30 meters (98 feet). |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Large Hail, Microbursts, Isolated Tornadoes)
FL Panhandle....W, C GA....SC....C, E NC....VA
STRONG WINDS
(Pressure Gradient Derived)
C, E KY....OH....Lower MI....E ON....C, S QC
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Scattered Locations In
FL Panhandle....W, C GA....SC....C, E NC....VA....MD Eastern Shore....S DE....S NJ
(QPF 1 - 4")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
E TN....W NC....Far W VA....WV....E KY....C, E OH....PA....ON Peninsula....S QC....NB....NS....ME....NH....VA....MA....RI....CT....NY....NJ....N DE....MD....DC
(Snow; 4 - 12"; Eastern Fringe Of Area Mix; .20 to 1.0" Glaze)
Numerous Locations In
TX....OK....KS....NE....SD....ND....E SK....MB....ON....MN....IA....MO....AR....N LA....N MS....N AL....TN....KY....IL....WI....MI....OH....W PA....W, C NY....QC
(Intense Cold)
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The active storm track moving below extensive Arctic air across Russia poses a forecast problem. If the impulses are strong enough (like the one moving through Iran today), linkage might be achieved with the cAk regime being drained across and along the Ural Range and out of the Central Asian Republics. That would mean that the mild depictions in the Middle East and Persia might quickly turn a lot colder, and rain chances may come in as sleet and snow, especially. For now, most model guidance keeps any truly cold air above 35 N Latitude. What many schemes do not realize is that a new player is coming into view: a well-defined subtropical jet stream moving across the Sahel and now reaching the upper Indus River watershed.
HIMAWARI 8
METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The dying tropical cyclone over northwestern Australia is not the big story, nor is the fragmented signature of the Madden-Julian Oscillation running just below Indonesia. Rather it is the presence of two intense jet streams: the polar westerlies and the southern branch. The Arctic air mass across Siberia into China may fall in behind a midlatitude cyclone east of Japan, and may follow the northern branch eastward and help to build on a giant mAk vortex below the Aleutian Islands. Such a set-up often leads to a warm West vs. cold Central, East alignment in North America, which I think will be in evidence now through much of next month.
The storm center emerging over the southern Indian Ocean may regenerate, but head away from the subcontinent and be a threat to only the shipping lanes of the Indian Ocean. Much of Australia and New Zealand should be entering a period of very hot, but drier weather over the next two weeks,
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
Now that the southern branch storm has been picked up by the polar and Arctic streams, attention turns to the rather volatile storm sequence across the northern Pacific Basin. One of these gyres will dislodge the current cAk vortex in Michigan and Ontario, and fill in a new trough through the eastern half of the continent. I think it likely that the subtropical input will lead to a new, mostly East Coast heavy precipitation event that poses a snow and ice threat for the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard in the 6-10 day range.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
The storm moving northeast from the Sea of Cortez will wreak havoc in the Mid-South and Eastern Seaboard on Sunday, with a variety of weather extremes. Severe weather in the Southeast, ice in lower Appalachia and sections of the Mid-Atlantic, and a heavy snow event in the north and west sections of the cyclone, which appears to be far colder and more intense in character than was forecast by numerical and official sources early last week. The Arctic regime will suppress temperatures east of the Rocky Mountains through next weekend.
Another vast tropical wave is pushing westward along the Amazon Basin, replacing the older disturbed area which is now breaking up across western Columbia southward through Ecuador. There is linkage with the new impulse and a frontal structure through Brazil. Hot and humid conditions are noted across much of South America, the peak of the austral summer.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
Europe should range normal to cool over the next ten days, since no truly Arctic values are in evidence. But the storm complex in the northern Atlantic Ocean is very large, and most of the model guidance has it undergoing a slow east passage through the subcontinent. The existing disturbances over the Mediterranean Sea will track into the Levant, with rain and thunderstorms a common occurrence along the way.
Here is a rare opportunity to see a long-strand subtropical jet stream. Originating with convection near Recife Brazil, this elongated flow moves over the southern Sahara Desert and continues into Pakistan. The axis may be able to deliver rare winter precipitation across portions of northern Africa. Note the dearth of moisture across the southern 2/3 of the continent, with only a few pockets of convection from Mozambique into Tanzania. This dryness could herald the coming of an El Nino episode.
