WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, November 15, 2025; EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Still A (Mostly) Mild December Outlook

CIMSS (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

ECMWF

NOAA/NOHRSC (2)

HPRCC (University Of Nebraska) (2)

Environment Canada

WeatherBell (6)

NOAA/CPC

Waiting for winter?

With a recurrent Sargasso Sea heat ridge and no entrenched blocking signatures in the higher latitudes, there must be a longer wait for the lower 48 states to get into the action experienced in Eurasia and Arctic Canada. Part of the issue ignored by broadcast and social media is that snow cover has only now begun to reach the Prairie Provinces. You need a snowpack to chill incoming cA air masses, not bare grass. There has been some marginal snowfall in the Great Lakes and across the Intermountain Region. But if a genuine cold wave lasting more than two days is going to visit large sections of the USA, the proper upper air configuration, residual on ground snow, and southern branch jet stream must be properly aligned. Over and over again. What has happened so far in November is that only the West Coast and interior Northeast has shown a cold/moist profile. The Southeast is cooler than normal, but is mostly not supportive of frozen precipitation.

There will be a transient cold intrusion through the eastern two-thirds of North America November 28 - December 5. Then a new subtropical high appears close to the Bermuda position, and starts the warming process all over again. Another cold frontal passage is possible through the northern third of half of the U.S. in the second week of December, but most of the predictive schemes have backed off on the idea of a cold December. I am confident that set-up will change for January, February, and maybe the first week of March, a reaction to the rise of SST anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Basin (likely a positive neutral ENSO in the spring). This should be a well-defined "second half" or "back loaded" winter, when the powerful southern branch jet stream wears down the positive 500MB height anomaly in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. For now, except for the occasional Alberta Clipper or Colorado/Trinidad "A" storm, it is a normal to warm prediction from Texas and the lower Great Plains through the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard.

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, November 15, 2025, 2022 at 11:30 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2025 by Larry Cosgrove

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